PDA

View Full Version : Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game


theropodx
10-06-2006, 02:19 PM
I'm so tired of hearing armchair qb's in this forum toss out theories about Ben's performance. I've heard everything from "he's got post-tramatic stress disorder" to "he's jinxed."

BS. The team (including Ben--but not as much as people say) has played poorly. Yes, Ben has thrown INTs, but many have come late in the game when errors by other players have forced the issue. Yes, he's missed passes, but rookie receivers were not following their routes. Yes he's been hurting, and he's rusty (there, I said it), but it's not PTSD or a jinx (whatever that is).

I'd love to give a lesson in statistics, but I don't have the time and they wouldn't get it anyway. But in a nutshell:

Because both losses were one score losses, the distance between those games being won was slight. One less fumble, one more receiver where he's supposed to be--dozens of other non qb errors corrected--and we win those games. We could so easily be 3-0 right now and people would be going on about how great Ben is and how they knew all along he would snap right back. Right.

And that's the problem: people here (and everywhere) are so good at calling it AFTER it happens. So, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. I predict:

1.) The last two games were a product of natural statistical variations more than anything else and odds are Ben will have a good game at SD, if not one of his best performances.

2.) Win or lose, Ben will start playing good again. What's more, the TEAM will start playing better, and we'll come out of this season with a strong finish.

So there you go. Laying out my opinions before the game, not after. Risky I know. Ya'll should try it too.

stlrtruck
10-06-2006, 02:36 PM
Well put! Like you, I agree that Ben will come through when it all matters and that the team as a whole has played poorly. I haven't called for anyone's head (at least not yet) after the game.

When it's all said and done, we'll answer the bell(s) and come out fighting once again!

I also think that Ben will have a sound game this Sunday night and all this crap will be behind us for another long run into the playoffs and the start of another dynasty!

Chamberlain
10-06-2006, 02:41 PM
I agree with most of what you said, but having watched the Jacksonville game, he did seem a little hesitant to move in the pocket and make plays happen, probably a result of not wanting to get hit and thus complicate his appendix surgery further. This hurt him, because he is a big, mobile guy who has the ability to make things happen on the run when healthy. But I agree that it is also a team effort, and receivers have been dropping balls and returners have been dropping punts. The defense has been doing it's part, it's time for the offense to step up. I think this will happen in San Diego.

Haiku_Dirtt
10-06-2006, 02:48 PM
You forgot 'separation anxiety'. Don't you think Ben just misses his appendix? :hug:

Anyway. From what I gather the vast majority are disappointed but very level headed about the losses. As you point out the "statistical variations" - umm poor execution - give reason to believe we could easily be 3-0 or 2-1. So the proverbial pendulum could swing back the other way on Sunday night with a better set of variations.

Sure. Going into Baltimore on Thankgiving weekend with a 7-3 record would make me very happy.

steelfan 92
10-06-2006, 03:24 PM
i don't think that is going out on a limb, i have a great feeling that he is going to have an fantastic game. maybe 2 - 3 touchwown passes. wisehunt just needs to be smart and call a better game. maybe go back to what he did in last years playoff and superbowl run, some parts are different, but we still have the talent.

billcowherschin
10-06-2006, 07:54 PM
good evening steeler nation. i am fairly new at posting on this site and want to gain some rep around here, i like the way you guys give rep points and levels and all....anyways to the football....its clear that bens numbers arent what we have grown to expect him but you have to look at the overall flow of both games....jacksonville jumped us from the begining setting a hard nosed tempo that we were happy to meet through the first half, as the game went on and we were down with time closing out been was forced to try to move the ball into some tight spots when they new we were going to pass, and not to mention that mathis is one of the best corners in the game, possibly one of the top three, and he broke our backs witht he first pic....against the bengals, the int he threw in the endzone would have been a touchdown if the ball was lobbed over the top, and the bengals jumped underneath the toss, and despite losing a chance to go up 14-0, and trailing at the half, we came back with our power game to take a lead, it wasnt ben that gave up the two tds in 52 seconds, it was a bad special teams play and a verron fumble, which again leaves ben in bad situations late in the game. against san diego on sunday night i believe if they force us to pass the ball ben will have one of his best games ever as a pro, san diego has a fantastic run defense, but i am not at all impressed with the secondary. although they are a very physical team as well, i think our offensive line can contain them from getting to ben long enough to pick apart a week secondary unit...well lets see how these "out on a limb" predictions fly, even though i dont think they are far fetched at all....

STEELERS 21
CHARGERS 10

19ward86
10-07-2006, 08:34 AM
i believe that roethlisberger will have a good game but i dont agree that the rest of the team has played poorly. they have been up to par. last year they eagled every hole but since polamalu is injured and hope is gone we have only been up to par which has still way above average. people say weve been blown out this year...just because we got shut out, may i need to remind them that the score was 9-0 not 41-0.

SteelersWoman
10-07-2006, 11:29 AM
may i need to remind them that the score was 9-0 not 41-0.


This is what I've been sayin all along. That score would've been a LOT worse had our team been "really" bad.

I'm not saying our guys played completely up to par that day, (we all know they didn't) but as you said--our not up to par is still better than most team's best. I was not at all disappointed with keeping the Jags down to a single digit number. No one else (not even the Colts) have been able to do that, and I doubt any other team they play this year will be able to either.

stillers4me
10-07-2006, 01:23 PM
This is what I've been sayin all along. That score would've been a LOT worse had our team been "really" bad.

I'm not saying our guys played completely up to par that day, (we all know they didn't) but as you said--our not up to par is still better than most team's best. I was not at all disappointed with keeping the Jags down to a single digit number. No one else (not even the Colts) have been able to do that, and I doubt any other team they play this year will be able to either.

Amen!

Btrice
10-07-2006, 02:57 PM
There were multiple times in the past two games on third and medium yardage that the receivers were all covered and Ben had an opportunity to run and slide for the first down but he didn't. If he never did that before then I wouldn't be saying anything, but we have all seen him rush forward like a back in those positions before, sometimes absorbing a hit rather than even sliding. When he starts doing that again, I think we can say that he is back to his old self (not necessarliy the absorbing the hits part, that is kind of novice and not indictitive of somebody who wants a long career)

Livinginthe past
10-07-2006, 03:04 PM
I'm so tired of hearing armchair qb's in this forum toss out theories about Ben's performance. I've heard everything from "he's got post-tramatic stress disorder" to "he's jinxed."

Someone with an opinion based upon what they see on the football field does not make them 'arm-chair' QB's - it makes them football fans.

If these people were what you claim them to be, then you are no different yourself - albeit one whose 'passing cone' (copyright Madden) is probably pink due to the rose tinted glasses you wear.

BS. The team (including Ben--but not as much as people say) has played poorly. Yes, Ben has thrown INTs, but many have come late in the game when errors by other players have forced the issue. Yes, he's missed passes, but rookie receivers were not following their routes. Yes he's been hurting, and he's rusty (there, I said it), but it's not PTSD or a jinx (whatever that is).

Ben has thrown awful pretty much all game, in both games with the exception of the first couple of series against JAX.

I'd love to give a lesson in statistics, but I don't have the time and they wouldn't get it anyway. But in a nutshell:

Because both losses were one score losses, the distance between those games being won was slight. One less fumble, one more receiver where he's supposed to be--dozens of other non qb errors corrected--and we win those games. We could so easily be 3-0 right now and people would be going on about how great Ben is and how they knew all along he would snap right back. Right.

Im afraid you can't go back in time and award the Steelers extra points, without factoring in how that would affect the play of the opposition.

When teams are ahead they tend to play more conservative, when behind more aggressive - if the Steelers magically eliminated the mistakes - then who is to say the opposition wouldnt have responded.

And that's the problem: people here (and everywhere) are so good at calling it AFTER it happens. So, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. I predict:

1.) The last two games were a product of natural statistical variations more than anything else and odds are Ben will have a good game at SD, if not one of his best performances.

2.) Win or lose, Ben will start playing good again. What's more, the TEAM will start playing better, and we'll come out of this season with a strong finish.

So there you go. Laying out my opinions before the game, not after. Risky I know. Ya'll should try it too.

How much money are we talking?

I'll take a $10 bet with you, if you are willing to do it through paypal.

For the record, spinning a coin and have it come down heads 20 times consecutively does not make it more likely to fall tails on the next throw - that is established statistical theory.

2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.

You need to define the boundaries for Bens good performance.

Here are my thoughts/predictions.

Ben wont have a better than +1 TD to INT ratio.

Ben wont throw for better than 65% completion rate.

Ben wont have a QB rating of better than 85.0.

Fancy any of that action?

NM

Elvis
10-07-2006, 03:50 PM
I think this must be the week that Ben and Hines get something going and our passing game must take some pressure off the runing game...

theropodx
10-07-2006, 08:31 PM
How much money are we talking?

I'll take a $10 bet with you, if you are willing to do it through paypal.

For the record, spinning a coin and have it come down heads 20 times consecutively does not make it more likely to fall tails on the next throw - that is established statistical theory.

2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.


You're putting words in my mouth. I said no such thing.

A coin only has two sides, but Ben has a better than 50% win record. So for any given game, odds are he's going to make more like 70% of the plays.

A better analogy for Ben is a game die. For any given roll, you're more than likely going to get a number higher than a 1. But it's also easy to roll a 1 twice in a row. However, roll again and the odds are in your favor to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

The reason I said the odds are good Ben has a good game is not because he's had two bad ones, but because history shows he's always more likely to have a good game than not (vs. other qb's).

As for the money: no thanks. My premise is not based on a passer rating or TD-INT stats, but that Ben is not Jinxed or suffering PTSD. I guess I would be willing to bet on a Win, BUT then two other players could fumble at the end of the game again and the loss would not be due to Ben being Jinxed.

Livinginthe past
10-07-2006, 11:26 PM
You're putting words in my mouth. I said no such thing.

A coin only has two sides, but Ben has a better than 50% win record. So for any given game, odds are he's going to make more like 70% of the plays.

A better analogy for Ben is a game die. For any given roll, you're more than likely going to get a number higher than a 1. But it's also easy to roll a 1 twice in a row. However, roll again and the odds are in your favor to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

The reason I said the odds are good Ben has a good game is not because he's had two bad ones, but because history shows he's always more likely to have a good game than not (vs. other qb's).

As for the money: no thanks. My premise is not based on a passer rating or TD-INT stats, but that Ben is not Jinxed or suffering PTSD. I guess I would be willing to bet on a Win, BUT then two other players could fumble at the end of the game again and the loss would not be due to Ben being Jinxed.

So you think Ben has a 70-80% chance of having a 'good game' sunday?

But you wont define what a 'good game' is.

No wonder you're pretty confident in your 'brave' pre-game predictions - they dont have any substance.

NM

theropodx
10-08-2006, 11:22 PM
my limb broke.

BigJen
10-08-2006, 11:26 PM
my limb broke.

:sofunny:

Preacher
10-12-2006, 01:09 AM
my limb broke.

that is funny... but sadly it is true.:toofunny:

theropodx
10-12-2006, 04:02 PM
Yeah, I still stand by my argument that 2 games does not make a good statistical sample. However, it's 3 games now, and while Ben isn't the only weak link, with every game he can't throw a TD, the questions grow.

Still, I contend sooner than later Ben will have a great game because that is what he does--his first two years of great games overrides 2, 3, or even 4 bad games. When he's back in stride--when the whole team is back in stride--the wild speculation will end as quickly as it started.

theropodx
10-15-2006, 07:09 PM
HE'S BACK, BABY!!!

B. Roethlisberger KS GAME STATS:

PASSING COMP: 16/19 (84%)
YDS: 238
TD: 2
INT: 0
RATING: 153.8

MattsMe
10-15-2006, 10:24 PM
2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.

Apparently it takes 3 bad games.

Livinginthe past
10-16-2006, 01:04 AM
Apparently it takes 3 bad games.

Looks like it :wink02:

NM

theropodx
10-16-2006, 02:06 AM
Yeah, just so the new pattern isn't 3 bad games, one amazing game, 3 bad games...

History says not, however. Go Big Ben!

stillers4me
10-16-2006, 05:12 AM
I like to not think about the SuperBowl. you gotta make the playoffs first and get past the best of the best. If we keep can keep playing like they did yesterday, we are playoff bound!! We do have some tough teams ahead of us.......Denver will be out for revenge, New Orleans is smokin' this year, and of course, there's that Tampa Bay team that rolled over over the Bungles yesterday...(ROTFLMAO!!)