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Livinginthe past
11-03-2006, 08:00 AM
Steeler fans,

What are your thoughts on this key week 9 match up in the race for No.1 AFC seeding?

Rather than a match up of equally strong units in a battle for supremacy, it looks like it could be a case of which teams takes advantage of potential mismatches.

Peyton vs New England Secondary

Peyton is having yet another excellent regular season, capped by what many pundits think was his best ever performance last week against the previously dominant Bronco's D.

Last year, Peyton et al absolutely took the Patriots DB's to the cleaners - both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne put up over 120 yards and the Colts scored 4 TD's on their 1st 5 possessions.

This year the Patriots DB's are alot more settled, and having a healthy Rodney Harrison back there raises the performance levels of those around him.

Maybe, just maybe, the genie is out of the bottle as far as Mannings troubles vs the Patriots goes - maybe that one game will prove to be a watershed and Manning can perform against New England as he does against most other teams.

Dillon, Maroney vs Colts Run D

The Colts rank flat last against the run this year, badly missing the presense of wide body Corey Simon on the D-line.

Teams have run at will against this defense - Jax put 177 yards on them, Tennessee put 171 on them, the Giants run for 160+.

The Patriots currently rank No.8 in rushing offense, the numbers dropping off after New England decided to go with Brady and 43 passing attempts on MNF against the Vikes.

Dillon has been allowed to stay fresh by averaging only 12 carries per game so far but has already looked more effective than last year and he averages just under 4ypc.

Maroney has brought real dynamic playmaking ability to the New England backfield - its been a while since the Patriots had a guy capable of taking it all the way on a regular basis.

As is typical the rookie has struggled against good run D's, but I expect the New England line to do an increasingly good job of opening lanes for him as the season progresses.

Conclusion

I happen to believe that a team that can consistently run the ball on their opponents becomes a fairly large favorite.

Not only are they moving the ball, but they are doing it in a clock consuming way - Manning has a history of trying to do too much when he feels under presure from the TOP match up.

The Colts havent been beaten up too badly in pass defense this year, but I figure that to be mostly down to teams not needing to actually go to the air to move the rock.

David Carr and Texans did chew them up to the tune of 219 yards and 3 TD's, when they becamse one of the few teams unable to move the ball in a dominating fashion against the Colts run D (they still racked up over 100 yards though).

Home field advantage at Foxboro shouldn't be discounted, especially as we move closer to the latter half of the season.

Manning is going to have to win this one through the air, the Colts run game is improving but still ranks only 17th - they wont be allowed to run on the leagues 3rd best run D.

The Patriots have shown the ability to win games on the ground and now through the air - the Colts dont have enough on D to stop them consistently.

Prediction

The Patriots should win this one by a TD or more.

Manning will pass for a boat load of yards but wont find the endzone as much as he needs to.

The Patriots will mix it up on offense (this isn't the Vikes rush D) and will use the Colts run D against them to take large chunks off the game clock when they are leading.

Final score.

Patriots 27 Colts 14

NM

stlrtruck
11-03-2006, 08:13 AM
Unfortunately, I believe the Patriots will once again prove that Peyton Manning has difficulty when under pressure. I believe Belichick will do what he does best - GAME PLAN!

Side Note: Do you think Cleveland kicks themselves in the arse every time they hear Bill's name?

I digress, Bill, for the most part, does a great job of preparing his team to play. Especially in big games. I think Manning will be confused (once again) and the Pats will win it probably 31-17.

HOWEVER, there is a chance that Peyton has finally learned the error of his ways with the Pats. As I've seen, it's difficult to get the long ball on them but they do (at least in the games that I've really paid attention to) give up the under routes. The little short yard dinks that can turn into long gains and eventually 7 points.

But I personally think that Manning would rather have those quick strikes against a team that has consistently beaten him down! That will be his downfall once again!

Big D
11-03-2006, 09:41 AM
I think it will be the patsy with the win as well. Peyton Manning has struggled in big games since college. Yes he did beat the pats last year but i think laurence moroney was a huge pick up for the pats and the colts loss of edge will hurt the colts chances this year

memphissteelergirl
11-03-2006, 10:27 AM
This should be a close game....decided by 10 points or less...but even with Peyton putting up big #'s, I have to give the edge to the Pats.

Hines0wnz
11-03-2006, 12:07 PM
Colts win by.......



an Adam V. FG. Doh! :dang:

Black@Gold Forever32
11-03-2006, 12:21 PM
Well I think its simple the Colts cant stop the run so bound the rock with Dillon/Maroney. That way it keeps Peyton Manning off the field. But Peyton Manning's daddy is Bill Belichick. So even with the likes of Chad Scott at corner. I'm sure Little Bill will have something cooked up to confuse Manning like always. I say 27-17 Pats.

Ambridge
11-03-2006, 05:48 PM
Well I think its simple the Colts cant stop the run so bound the rock with Dillon/Maroney. That way it keeps Peyton Manning off the field. But Peyton Manning's daddy is Bill Belichick. So even with the likes of Chad Scott at corner. I'm sure Little Bill will have something cooked up to confuse Manning like always. I say 27-17 Pats.

Exactly!!
Run the hell out of Maroney and Dillon and try and play keep away from "Pumpkin Head".

The Patriots still have Chad Scott???? OMG!!
I would think Manning will be licking his chops anytime he sees him on the field.

LarryNJ
11-03-2006, 06:53 PM
The Pats will run the ball effectivly, as long as they can end those time consuming drives with a TD and not a FG they will win. I think it will be a high scoring game. 35-24 Pats.

PisnNapalm
11-03-2006, 08:11 PM
I was gonna say something smartassed, but then I figured what the hell why not!

Who cares? Is it possible for both teams to lose?

/me prays for a TKO. :P





On a more serious note...

I too think the Dolts are going down at the hands of the Patsies. I'll take Brady over Manning anyday.

PAMillerGrrl83
11-03-2006, 10:18 PM
I'm gonna hope the Colts win. My fiance` and his entire family is from Indy but Id really like to see Manning and the Colts win.

Cape Cod Steel Head
11-04-2006, 07:49 AM
Manning is 2-7 vs. The Patsy's. Patsy's at home. Indy has no run defense. No reason why the Patsy's should lose this one.

Livinginthe past
11-04-2006, 08:27 AM
Thanks to those who have shared their input - im glad plenty more people outside 'Patriots Nation' see it the same way I do.

The only thing I can see going wrong is having another 'Denver playoffs' day at the turnover office.

NM

SteelCityMan786
11-04-2006, 11:17 AM
This is an easy pick

New England Over Indy.

Enough Said.

tony hipchest
11-04-2006, 11:27 AM
Thanks to those who have shared their input - im glad plenty more people outside 'Patriots Nation' see it the same way I do.

The only thing I can see going wrong is having another 'Denver playoffs' day at the turnover office.

NMi guess this is a thread where if you dont believe with the thread starter or dont have any positive reinforcement to offer one shouldnt even bother...

but what the hell, thats never stopped me before.

if payton racks up tons of yardage the patriots will lose. with that yardage will come alot of points. we could see the pats play man down and 2 under. they probably wanna jam the colts wr's off the line like they would against the rams. i woulnt be suprised to see the defense dusted off where the safeties are playing in the cb's positions and the cb's playing safety. the pats want to show defenses that almost beg the colts to run the ball. this could very well be the week that. j. addai:
1) assumes the starters roll
2) gets 20+ carries
3) has a breakout game of 120 yds and a td or 2

you never know what the pats o will do wich definitely gives them an edge. they could unconventionally come out just like they did last week throwing the ball all over to build up a quick lead. i think they would prefer the colts playing from behind right off the bat to try and force manning into doing to much.

i dont think 'chick even knows how the 1st drive will go. i bet if colts open up with a quick td, the patriots will go to the run. if pats open with the ball i think they will try to score quick, knowing they can resort to pounding the ball later.

colts need to be creative with freeney and send the house early to set the tone. i expect some extra effor from them to man up and slow down the run. although their run defense is worst in the league it really hasnt cost them any games this season. they are undefeated.

my prediction- in an ironic twist of fate a. vinatieri loses the game in which the pats are clearly outplayed with a missed fg. 28-27.

skidboot
11-04-2006, 11:52 AM
Pats run the ball to keep the Indy Offense off the field. Maroney, Dillon etc could possibly ring up well over 200 on the ground vs the Colts. IF they run the ball its going to set up play action and watch for Ben Watson to have a big day.

The Pats know how to beat the Colts......punish them all the time.

I think the DL of the Pats is going to cause havoc all day long.

Livinginthe past
11-04-2006, 12:12 PM
Pats run the ball to keep the Indy Offense off the field. Maroney, Dillon etc could possibly ring up well over 200 on the ground vs the Colts. IF they run the ball its going to set up play action and watch for Ben Watson to have a big day.

The Pats know how to beat the Colts......punish them all the time.

I think the DL of the Pats is going to cause havoc all day long.

Yep.

Ben Watson has certainly stepped it up this year with 28 catches and a 13.1 ypc average.

Bear in mind, that he only caught 29 passes in 2005 and that was with Brady going pass-wacky!

I would imagine that so many times over the last few years the Colts have convinced themselves that they have too many weapons for the Patriots to stop them and been proven wrong.

Thats kinda how I feel about tomorrows game, in reverse.

I hope the result doesnt follow the pattern.

NM

skidboot
11-04-2006, 12:31 PM
Brady is more familiar with Watson and Graham. They've been part of the Pats system for a couple of years. Graham is the better blocker.

The only WR that has any kind of familiarity with Brady is Troy Brown. All the others are new. Brady IS starting to get comfortable with the new guys. I'm thinking Jackson and Gabriel will see more passes coming their way as the season continues.

Livinginthe past
11-04-2006, 12:47 PM
Brady is more familiar with Watson and Graham. They've been part of the Pats system for a couple of years. Graham is the better blocker.

The only WR that has any kind of familiarity with Brady is Troy Brown. All the others are new. Brady IS starting to get comfortable with the new guys. I'm thinking Jackson and Gabriel will see more passes coming their way as the season continues.

Gabriel has been a real revelation - could turn out to be one of the trades of the season when you think he only cost a 5th rounder.

He has good hands, very capable of adding YAC and seems to have a very good attitude aswell.

Chad Jackson has shown flashes of talent - like his TD catch/run on monday night - but he is still a little behind the curve due to nagging hamstring injuries.

Another guy who has really stepped up is Reche Caldwell - who couldnt even hold down the 3rd WR position in San Diego - the common denominator is Brady of course.

NM

LarryNJ
11-04-2006, 02:09 PM
One thing for sure is the Sunday night game will get better ratings than the Monday Night game! Everyone will be watching, the Pats love that atmosphere and thrive on it.