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View Full Version : BELIEVE! It Can Happen Again!


Justin Otstott
12-21-2006, 02:42 PM
Ok I found this site today so I am posting this...sorry Mods if this has already been posted!

Overview
The first table below shows valid scenarios that put the Steelers in the playoffs. (email me at snarky3000@gmail.com if you have additions or corrections - although at this point, I consider these scenarios to be definitive.). All scenarios assume Steelers win their last two. Required winners for the scenario listed in red. Games which are known to be irrelevant for a given scenario are marked with an (I). The second table (table 2.1) shows head-to-head tie breakers against the other seven teams who could come in at 9-7. Table 2.2 summarize multi-team tie-breaker scenarios, Table 3 shows a best case scenario for key games in week 16, Table 4.1 list the week 16 scenarios which eliminate the Steelers. Table 4.2 shows other scenarios which would leave Pittsburgh with only the slimmest of mathematical chances going into the final week and Table 5 shows other reemaining games with a potential impact on Steelers tie-breakers due to strength of victory. The conclusions shown are based on published NFL tiebreaking rules.

Getting past Jacksonville and Denver
Some readers may be surprised to see the Steelers passing Jacksonville and Denver in cases where the teams are 9-7. It is true that both of these teams hold head-to-head tie-breakers with Pittsburgh. However, in both cases, another team holds the division tie-breaker over them. NFL rules stipulate that division ties are broken first and then ties between teams from different divisions. So in a five way tie between Pittsburgh, Denver, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Tennessee, The first two teams eliminated would be Denver and Jacksonville, Next, KC would get dropped because of conference record and we would beat Tennessee based on common opponents. This may seem to conflict with the statement by the NFL that if the Bengals and Jaguars had both won in week 15 the Steelers would be eliminated. In fact, it does not. See below for further explanation. The only problem with tying with the Titans is that we lose to them in a three-way tie breaker if the third team is anybody other than Kansas City. This is because their strength of victory is superior to ours. We could tie them on strength of victory, but it is very unlikely (about 300:1).

What happens if we finish in a tie with Cincinnati? Doesn't that kill our chances?
In a word, the answer to this question is 'No'. All that means is that Cincinnati would get a Wild Card spot before us. Since they would win any tie-breakers that we would win, their record is of no consequence other than whether they come in ahead of (including tie-breakers) or behind us. It has no impact on our ability to break ties with other teams.

The NFL rules on this can be confusing because teams are first seeded within their division and only the top teams move to a tie-breaker. But once five seed is given, if the thrid place team in from the division of the 5 seed has the same record, they move up into the tie-breaker for the 6 seed.

Multi-team tie-breakers
Note that some of the scenarios and permutations are based on a currently unvalidated assumption that the Steelers would win out in three way tie-breakers if they were up against two teams against whom they have the head-head-tie breaker. (This would always be true if the scenario shows KC winning out since their conference record is poor. But the situation is more cloudy for other teams and combinations of teams.)

In cases where a game is believed to be irrelevent, but the situation isn't entirely clear, the game is denoted by putting the preferred winner in green.. Read these games to mean probably not relevant, but best if the team in green wins. In cases such as Scenario 1 where two games have uncertain implications, the Steelers would advance if at least one of the results indicated is achieved since Pittsburgh owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with against the releant teams (for instance, Jets and Titans). Permutations where there is doubt about tie-breaker scenairio are marked with an asterisk. But the same thinking applies in that they appear to favor us but a more thorough look is needed.

Miscellaneous
I'm not going to get into ties unless they actually happen or become absolutely required. But a tie between Cincinnati and Denver would be a great thing.

Scenarios 4 and 5 are very similar and are based on us getting by Cincinnati, Denver and Jacksonville. They are presented seperately to avoid too many games being marked as I. Even if we get past the first three, some other things would still need to happen.

For the table's Click Here (http://www.pittsburghtitle.com/)

Source: Pittsburghtitle.com

Preacher
12-21-2006, 02:50 PM
I read through the whole thing...

Getting light headed...

Dizziness... Room spinning............

it... may... be... possibbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb.......................... .............................

ravensFan
12-21-2006, 03:00 PM
HAHAHAHHAHAHA hahaha HAhaHAhaHAhaHAhaHa

lamberts-lost-tooth
12-21-2006, 03:02 PM
I read through the whole thing...

Getting light headed...

Dizziness... Room spinning............

it... may... be... possibbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb.......................... .............................

I know..it made me so dizzy I almost thought that the Ravens record this year wasnt a fluke!!!..

PalmerSteel
12-21-2006, 03:14 PM
confusing, but nice work!

VolatileMan
12-21-2006, 03:22 PM
Well Justin, that is some fine work bringing that all together.

I am as big a Steeler fan as they come, but after reading through that (including all the charts) I cannot be as optimistic as you are. The main reason for this is . . .

Most of your scenarios need Oakland to win! :jawdrop:

Ironically that one loss to Oakland (I know we should have beat Cin, and the Jags, but F**king Oakland come on) may cost us a wild card spot.

And yes I will watch every game knowing the scenarios, praying for the proper outcomes. Slim is on his horse heading out of town, but untill he is actually out of town there is hope!

Go Steelers

VolatileMan

Justin Otstott
12-21-2006, 04:24 PM
well I never made that I just happen to find that page surfin the net lol....It's alot of reading!

dlsf8607
12-21-2006, 04:54 PM
Wow that is some complicated stuff...personally for me though I'm just going to cheer as hard as I can for the black and gold the next two weeks, hope we win out and hopefully the rest will work itself out and we get into the playoffs!

stillers4me
12-21-2006, 05:02 PM
Wow that is some complicated stuff...personally for me though I'm just going to cheer as hard as I can for the black and gold the next two weeks, hope we win out and hopefully the rest will work itself out and we get into the playoffs!

That's my plan.........:cheers:

sumo
12-21-2006, 05:44 PM
yean and a monkey might fly out of my a-- too!...just kidding -- I BELIEVE!!, I HAVE A DREAM, all that stuff...

herewegosteelers
12-21-2006, 06:09 PM
I read through the whole thing...

Getting light headed...

Dizziness... Room spinning............

it... may... be... possibbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb.......................... .............................

:sofunny: :sofunny: :sofunny:

tony hipchest
12-21-2006, 07:05 PM
i didnt believe any AFC team would make it into the playoffs at 9-7. in fact, i doubted a 10-6 team would make it, so i gave up hope as soon as they lost their last game. HOWEVER, i do believe that the steelers will play the last 2 games as if homefield advantage throughout the playoffs depend on it, and i DO believe the steelers can play thike the champs they are. this bodes well when the bengals and ravenfans will be expecting the 2-6 steelers to show up.

floodcitygirl
12-21-2006, 07:17 PM
Wow that is some complicated stuff...personally for me though I'm just going to cheer as hard as I can for the black and gold the next two weeks, hope we win out and hopefully the rest will work itself out and we get into the playoffs!I'm with ya! :tt02:

I-Want-Troy's-Hair
12-23-2006, 12:05 PM
Playoff scenario from Pittsburgh Sports Tonight.

Week 16 Elimination if:

1- Steelers Lose

2- Jacksonville win + Cin win + Tenn Loss

3- Jacksonville win + Denver win + Tenn loss + KC loss

4- Jacksonville win + Cin win + NYJ win + Ten clinches strength of victory over pittsburgh

5- Jacksonville win + Den win +NYJ win + KC loss + Tenn clinches strength of victory

...and yes I BELIEVE :tt02: :tt02: :tt02: