View Full Version : Superbowl talk
01-29-2007, 05:43 PM
personally, im looking more forward to this superbowl, than any i can remember recently, (that didnt have the steelers involved). i wont watch the game rooting for any specific teams to lose. seems to be alot of really good matchups. if theres any bowl that could produce the 1st over time game, i think this is it (i will be looking at the betting odds on this). alot of interresting facts and topics of discussion will come out during the week.
colts are ranked 23rd on defense. no team ranked 23rd or below has won.
dallas clark has been the most productive receiver for the colts. if the bears double up on wayne and harrison, briggs or urlacher can easilly contain clark, while the other covers a rb.
the bears are underdogs, and everyone is awaiting the arrival of "bad rex". grossman enters the playoffs with a higher passer rating than manning and is the only playoff qb who is yet to throw an int.
01-29-2007, 06:52 PM
I think theres only been one dome team to ever win a Superbowl that I can think of. The Rams, then again I could be wrong???
01-29-2007, 06:58 PM
I am looking forward to this one MORE in someways then last year. Why? Because I ain't so nervous!!
just a little add to the comment made about dome teams -- the fact that they are playing on grass is a freakin HUGE advantage to the Bears...I can't believe how overlooked this is as a contributing factor - just think back 1 week to the Saints trying to run on the grass at Soldier field...my prediction is it will be a very close game...but the Colts will pull it off in a tight one..
01-29-2007, 08:21 PM
i wont watch the game rooting for any specific teams to lose.
There are aspects of both teams that I like and dislike, but all and all, I just want a good game. Something exciting...
Being decided in the last two minutes or in OT would be great.
01-29-2007, 08:48 PM
personally, im looking more forward to this superbowl, than any i can remember recently, (that didnt have the steelers involved). i wont watch the game rooting for any specific teams to lose.
Agreed - this is one SB that I'm gonna feel badly for the losing team afterwards.
01-30-2007, 05:34 AM
I'm with you guys on this one. While I would like to see Colts win it (Dungy, Manning, Harrison), I would feel worse if the Colts lost to bunch of panzies such as the Seahawks. But I'll be happy for Lovie Smith and Urlacher if they get the title. Most importantly and as Kermit stated, I just want an exciting game.
Good luck to both teams and may the better team win.
01-30-2007, 08:33 AM
i wont watch the game rooting for any specific teams to lose. seems to be alot of really good matchups.
That's where I'm at Tony. I deeply respect both coaches, as well as players from both teams, though if I'm leaning only slightly towards the Colts, it's because Dungy used to be one of ours. There can only be one winner, though, and I'll feel bad for whichever team loses.
Good luck Colts and Bears! :cheers:
01-30-2007, 10:21 AM
im watching media day and mushin muhammed just gave shot outs to all the troops in iraq...and in iran. :huh:
01-30-2007, 10:31 AM
I agree y'all...this is one game where it is going to be difficult to cheer for one team over another. But as a fan I think this should be one of the best SB games in a while (after ours, of course :wink02: ). It has all the elements: 2 well-respected coaches (Dungy and Smith), a franchise QB (Manning) against one of the best defenses in the league, a defense that feels they have something to prove to all the doubters (Indy). As a fan of the game, you have to feel this one could actually live up to the hype.
01-30-2007, 10:41 AM
It did not matter which team made it the saints are the bears. Nether team has faired well against afc teams. Colts will destory the bears. If the colts jump up top quickly and make the Bears put the ball in Rex hands it will be over for the Bears. Rex has had little success when tied are coming from behind at a avg of 55 QB rating and below. They talk about Rex having set the record for the most 100+ QB ratings in 7 games, but have you also seen the record he set for the most lower QB ratings in a season of under 40 for what 7 games also. Manning has made it and he will not go out of this one without a fight he is do for a good game and it will be in the SB. NFC is so weak the powder puff girls the bears made it. Two fair wether fan bases, this will be one of the most unwatched SB in history of TV.
01-30-2007, 10:46 AM
as much as I hate elishas sister peyton. I'm going for the colts because of Tony Dungy.
01-30-2007, 11:12 AM
mushin muhammed is on a roll.
"were creatures of routine"
why are atleletes always mixing and making up their own cliches? e. smith used to be the best at this.
01-30-2007, 11:21 AM
at least we havent heard i would like to thank god for my hands yet
01-30-2007, 02:30 PM
pressure is something you feel only when you dont know what you are doing.
-chuck nollthese words have been passed on to peyton manning from tony dungy.
this game just seems that the pressure on both sides is a wash. i really dont think either team will be thinking about "peyton cant win the big one" or "good rex/bad rex" when they take the field on sunday. either of them being a story leading up to the game, really takes away from what can be a great game.
01-30-2007, 04:16 PM
(great breakdown of some intangibles and stats going into the game)
Getting philosophical about the teams
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Jan. 29, 2007) -- Well, people are taking sides about which team will win this Super Bowl. The Bears fans will go on and on about "defense wins championships." Colts fans want to drag you into the idea that it is a "quarterback-driven league." The great issue surrounding this game for the national audience is philosophy.
People have a clear-cut choice to make about what they believe drives the modern game of football. Old-school wisdom sticks with the Monsters of the Midway and the idea that a great defense can shut down a great offense. The modern fan probably believes the high-powered passing attack with a spread offense can neutralize a rough and tumble defense. The teams are close in many ways, so this one comes down to which side of the ball you believe in. Just in case your gut instinct leads you to the Bears or Colts but you don't have enough facts to support your feelings, I thought you might like some information to help you win the water cooler arguments at work.
SOME COLTS LOGIC
The AFC has the advantage, but can Peyton Manning win the big one?
1. The AFC has won seven of the last nine Super Bowls.
2. The team that scores first in the Super Bowl wins 65 percent of the time. The Colts have a narrow advantage in this area. They scored first in 10 of their 16 games, and went 9-1 in those contests. The Bears scored first nine times and went 8-1 in those games. The last thing the Bears want to see is an early Colts lead, which will shift pressure to Rex Grossman. The Colts are built to throw the ball, and an early lead by Chicago would appear to hurt them less.
3. Devin Hester is a critical part of the Bears' attack, but no one has ever returned a punt for a touchdown in a Super Bowl game. If Hester works his magic, it would be a first. Sure, there have been seven kickoff returns for touchdowns, but those teams' record in the big game is just 2-5.
4. Teams that gain the most yards in a Super Bowl win the game 85 percent of the time. Indy gained just over 800 more yards than Chicago this season and looks like the team that will put up more yardage in this one.
SOME BEARS LOGIC
Much has been said about the Bears defense, but it has surrendered at least 20 points eight times.
1. When it comes to the Super Bowl, the team that gave up the fewest points during the season wins the big game 71.7 percent of the time. (28-11). There was one instance where both teams surrendered the same amount of points during the campaign. The Bears gave up 105 less points in 2006.
2. If a Super Bowl team can hold an opponent to zero points in the first half, it wins every time. 9-0 is the record of teams blanking the opposition in previous Super Bowls. The Bears held five opponents to zero points in the first half this season and won all five. The Colts only held two teams to nothing in the first half this season and went 1-1.
3. The team with a better regular-season record wins 72 percent of the time if you throw out the years both teams came into the Super Bowl with the same record. This year Chicago enters with a 13-3 record and Indianapolis is a game behind at 12-4.
4. The Bears finished the regular season with a plus-8 turnover ratio and the Colts finished close, but behind by one turnover at plus-7. The team that wins the turnover battle in the Super Bowl game is 29-3 with eight ties. By the way, there have only been two Super Bowls without turnovers. Bears fans believe their team has the best chance to win this critical battle.
Of course, all these numbers don't mean a thing when the teams line up Sunday evening in South Florida. And here are a few more things that make this Super Bowl very interesting to me. Both head coaches are from the defensive side of the ball and neither man is from the Bill Walsh or Bill Parcells tree of coaches. Both teams run a 4-3 defense and do very little blitzing. What happened to the almighty flexible 3-4 defense that was supposed to be all the rage in the NFL?
With the Colts and Bears joining the free-agency era of teams to make the Super Bowl, we now have 20 different teams making the Super Bowl in the 15 years since free agency has started.
Dick Vermeil sat down with me last week to reflect on his two Super Bowl appearances -- the Eagles vs. the Raiders and the Rams vs. the Titans. He really believes that the first-quarter emotions are so intense and can't be duplicated in any way during the preparation. By the time the teams settle down, one team will be so far ahead of the other in controlling their emotions that the game could be won or lost early. Two teams with so few players with Super Bowl experience will be managed the best by the coach that can settle his team down the soonest.
In the first 40 Super Bowls, we have had close to 1,500 players win that precious ring every player covets. It's too early in the week to be convinced which group of 53 men is going to score first, cause the most turnovers, lead at halftime or shut out the other in the first half, but I do think we can all agree it's going to be one heck of a battle. Can either team come back if it is down 10 points or more? It happened just once, back in Super Bowl XXII when the Redskins were down 10 to the Broncos (10-0) and won 42-10. Mark my words -- we are going to see something very special in Super Bowl XLI. I'm just not sure what it is yet.
I do think the number 427 is important to keep in mind. That's the number of points both of these teams scored this season. Can it be more intriguing than the fact that both teams in a long 16-game schedule scored the exact number of points, or 26.68 per game? This is just too close to call, so it will come down to what you believe is the philosophy behind winning.
lost in the talk of "good rex/bad rex" and "peytons offense vs. bears defense" is the fact that the bears can score the ball. so what if alot of their points were scored on defense or special teams. the scoreboard doesnt show how the points were scored, just how many.
01-31-2007, 05:53 PM
so anyone see any adam vinatieri interviews this week? he clearly likes playing for the colts (and dungy) much better, although im sure alot of it is him liking to play in the superbowl.
he said dungy coaches you more like a friend, and a man. then he said belichick is more of a figurehead. he clarified that by stating a scary figurehead. :chuckle:
01-31-2007, 10:03 PM
more great game breakdown.
Ten matchups to watch in Super Bowl XLI
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
MIAMI (Jan. 30, 2007) -- Coaches can sit for days thinking about game plans, players can have walk-throughs and practices all night long, but in the end, games usually come down to matchups.
Can our left tackle block your right defensive end? Can our best corner take your best receiver out of the game? Can your running back make our linebacker miss in the open field? Can our punter keep the ball away from the deadly kick returner?
Pro football, more than college or high school football, is about matchups. Teams quickly recognize the matchups they can take advantage of and they exploit them as many times as possible until you do something about it. When a team overcompensates to repair a bad matchup, they usually cause a ripple effect somewhere else that good teams also go after.
For example, if the Bears find out in Super Bowl XLI that one of their cornerbacks can't handle Marvin Harrison by himself and they support the corner with safety help, then Peyton Manning will quickly throw to the backside to either Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark. If the Colts coverage units can't contain return specialist Devin Hester then they may have to consider punting out of bounds or squibbing kickoffs, which results in pretty good field position for the Bears but it guarantees no returns for touchdowns.
Technically, there are 22 matchups of equal importance in any NFL game. One weak link in the chain, and a team can crumble. Here are the top 10 matchups in Super Bowl XLI and the possible ripple effect if one team has to overcompensate to support a player.
1. Colts WR Marvin Harrison vs. Bears CB Charles Tillman: Harrison is Manning's go-to guy, and they don't even need to talk to each other to be on the same wavelength. Tillman had a good season for Chicago, but when I watch game tapes of the Colts and see teams like Baltimore with its excellent corners give safety help over the top to defend Harrison, it should be expected that the Bears will not leave Tillman alone very often. If it's a straight Cover 2 defense, look for Harrison to run the corner routes and quick slants and Tillman will struggle. If the Bears let him play "heavy" on Harrison to take away the short route and trail the deep route, than Manning will go elsewhere. Whether Harrison is catching passes or occupying two defenders, this matchup goes to the Colts.
2. Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Bears CB Nathan Vasher: Wayne can be the primary receiver for the Colts, or he can be the worst nightmare on the backside of a rolled coverage towards Harrison. Vasher is a very good player and probably has a better chance singled up with Wayne than Tillman has with Harrison. But with tight end Dallas Clark running a seam route just inside of Wayne to hold off the safety, Vasher can call the coverage anything he wants to call it, but he has to cover Wayne on two critical routes. If Nathan plays soft and off, then Wayne runs a 12-yard out route. If he plays up and tight, then the go route is the issue. Vasher can hold up only if Brian Urlacher can hold off the Clark seam route by himself and safety Todd Johnson can help Vasher. This matchup is a push, but at what cost to the Bears?
3. Bears WR Bernard Berrian vs. Colts CB Nick Harper: The Colts are going to overplay the run early in this game like they have throughout the playoffs. Harper is going to be left on an island against the speedy wide receiver a few times early in the first quarter, just daring Rex Grossman to throw the deep ball. People on the inside around the NFL believe the Bears will take a few deep shots early in this game to Berrian, and if they do, the Colts are vulnerable. The question isn't the matchup, the question is will Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner take the shots downfield? This is a good matchup for the Bears, especially when safety Bob Sanders is way up by the line of scrimmage on first downs.
Dallas Clark has been a key weapon for the Colts in the postseason.
4. Colts TE Dallas Clark vs. Bears LB Brian Urlacher: The Colts will play this game predominantly in one-back sets, and that will cause the Bears to check to Cover 2 most of the time. I watched a reel of all of Urlacher's blitzes, and there's a reason he finished the season without a sack: He gets blocked too much when he blitzes, so Tampa 2 coverage is what he does best. Urlacher can get vertical like no other linebacker in the NFL, and no quarterback likes to throw that skinny short post like Manning. Clark only had 30 receptions in the regular season, but in the three postseason games he has 17 for 281 yards. Urlacher can cover Clark down the middle, but if he bails too early, than the draw play is the ripple effect. The Bears could really help Urlacher by closing off the inside gaps with the defensive line, and if there is a late draw play then bounce it to the outside where Lance Briggs and Hunter Hillenmeyer are waiting. Urlacher on Clark has to go to Urlacher at this point.
5. Bears C Olin Kreutz vs. Colts DT Anthony McFarland: Kruetz is an All-Pro center for the Bears, and he can do more damage to a run defense than any other Bears player. As one defensive coordinator who played the Bears said, "If Olin gets a chance to double on the nose and slide up to the linebacker, the Colts are in for a long day stopping the run." McFarland was a late trade from the Bucs to shore up the run defense for Indianapolis. In order to apply pressure on Grossman and make him have to throw the ball, McFarland has to occupy Kreutz in every run situation. McFarland will battle Kruetz, but in the end I give this matchup to the Bears.
6. Colts DE Dwight Freeney vs. Bears T John Tait: Freeney's numbers may not be what they have been in the past as far as sacks go, but he has come alive in the postseason. Tait will struggle with Freeney when left alone in sure passing situations. The best bet may be for the Bears to play left-handed. By putting tight end Desmond Clark on the left side next to Tait, then there are all kinds of ways to slow the great pass rusher down. The ripple effect, however, is the Bears have fewer people out as receivers or it allows blitz opportunities for a guy like Bob Sanders. This matchup is in the Colts favor.
7. Colts C Jeff Saturday vs. Bears DT Tank Johnson: Saturday is underrated. He may not have the power to handle Johnson on a given play, but when Manning goes no-huddle and hurry-up no-huddle, the advantage shifts back to Saturday. I've seen the crafty center start to win physically when Manning creates an up-tempo style. Vince Wilfork of the Patriots found that out last week late in the game, and Johnson will too. I like the Colts in the second half to wear down the Bears front, especially without Tommie Harris playing.
8. Colts T Tarik Glenn vs. Bears DE Alex Brown: Glenn is often asked to block excellent pass-rushing right ends by himself, and this game will be no different. Teams like the Packers, who play the Bears regularly, tell me the best thing to do is screen pass Brown if you aren't going to give the left tackle a chip blocker to help out. Colts running back Joseph Addai has very good hands and the ripple effect of Glenn struggling with Brown will be the slip screen to Addai, probably from shotgun sets. Glenn knows Manning gets rid of the ball, and he will short set on Brown to get him blocked early, so I give this matchup to the Colts.
9. Colts DE Robert Mathis vs. Bears T Fred Miller: If it's the running game, Miller gets the edge unless the Colts overplay the run with their safety. If it's the pass game, Mathis is a fine pass rusher and Miller will struggle. If the Bears help Tait against Freeney, then the ripple effect is Mathis wins on Miller. If the Bears help Miller, then Freeney is in the backfield. I like the Colts here if they get Chicago into a passing mode. The Colts offense is the key -- if they put points on the board early, Mathis has a big game.
10. Bears TE Desmond Clark vs. Colts SS Antoine Bethea: Clark is a bit under the radar screen, but down in the red zone he is dangerous. Bethea has made a few big plays in the red zone this postseason, but with Sanders having to play the run so intensely, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Clark has a big game.
Finally, there could be another matchup that creates the story of this Super Bowl, but there's no way this game isn't in the hands of these 10 critical matchups. It's going to be on the minds of all the players mentioned all week long and the guys who can get some rest and be confident in their abilities on Sunday will tell the tale of this game.
02-02-2007, 06:03 PM
the great thing about a kirwan article is that he brings so much insider information rather than just blind opinion. in his 1st "dont", he talks about kicking to devin hester. every head coach hes talked to has said they wouldnt. today on his radio show there was an excellent interview with ken whisenhunt, where he too, said he wouldnt kick to devin. i would expect dungy to follow the conventional wisdom here.
Dos and don'ts for Super Bowl XLI
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Feb. 2, 2007) -- The Super Bowl gets ever closer, and after watching hours of game tapes, cut-up tapes of third downs, blitz reels and special teams plays, along with talking to many players and coaches about the Bears and Colts, it is time for a list of things the teams should consider doing and a list of things to avoid.
DON'T KICK OR PUNT TO DEVIN HESTER
The only times Devin Hester didn't score was when the Bears were on offense.
Special teams coaches around the league have all disagreed with me, but the overwhelming majority of head coaches agree. In fact, I arrived at my final decision when Hall of Fame coach Don Shula said he would not kick to young Devin Hester. I asked Jeff Fisher what he would say to his team about a decision not to kick to Hester. Could it be misconstrued as cowardly by his players? Fisher simply said he would stand in front of the team and ask this question of his players: "Do you want to win?" If so, then they would not kick to Hester. He was also quick to point out teams still kick to Pacman Jones, and he can beat anyone.
DON'T SIT IN ONE OR TWO LOOKS AGAINST PEYTON MANNING
I know the Bears do what they do, and they should play the simple defense that got them to the Super Bowl. But this is Peyton Manning. Dan Marino said if he sees the same coverage over and over again he will complete a lot of passes. Fisher said, "We play him twice a year and we change up totally from game to game." Broncos CB Domonique Foxworth said, "You have to disguise everything before the snap. And if you don't, it's going to be a long day."
DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BEAR DEEP PASSING ATTACK EARLY
The Bears are right to protect Rex Grossman with a great running game and a turnover-crazy defense. But the deep passing attack is a safe bet, and the Bears will take advantage of it. As one quarterback coach said, "Remember when Chris Simms took over at QB for the Bucs? Gruden employed a deep passing attack for the young QB instead of the shallow crossing plays that are more difficult to read and throw. Ron Turner will do the same thing against the Colts."
DON'T COUNT ON EITHER FOUR-MAN RUSH TO GET TO THE QB
Both teams love to rush the front four and limit pressure. It will not be enough pressure for either team to sack the QB. Expect some pressure calls early, especially from the Bears. As for the Colts, they may hold out a bit longer. But if Chicago goes to a three-receiver package on passing downs, keep your eye on the nickel slot DB. He's blitzing after watching the game tapes of the playoff games.
DON'T EXPECT ANY PLUS-50-YARD FIELD GOALS
Adam Vinatieri is 8 of 18 all time over 50 yards in the regular season, but 2 of 2 this postseason.
Neither Robbie Gould nor Adam Vinatieri made a field goal over 50 yards in the regular season. Gould never even attempted one, and Vinatieri only tried once. Both are great from 40-49 yards out, combining for 21 of 24, but the long attempt in the closing seconds of the half or game present too many problems. If they miss, the opposition has a short field, which looks more like an interception/turnover return than a missed kick. And as one special teams coach said, "Never forget that Hester has already returned a missed field goal for a score."
DON'T EXPECT EITHER COACH TO HIT ANY PANIC BUTTONS
Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy are more in control of their emotions than any pair of Super Bowl coaches I can remember. One of these coaches is going to be losing at some point in this game, and it will probably be early in the contest. Neither coach is going to hit the panic button and start throwing the ball to catch up. Some coaches will abandon the run as soon as they are down seven points. The Colts would continue to let Manning read the defense and take what they give. The Bears will keep the run/pass ratio tilted to the run side. As one Panthers coach said to me, "Last year in the playoffs we got up 14 points early and Grossman threw 40 passes. They will not do that again."
DO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED HERO
As Franco Harris said to me, "A game like this will bring out an unexpected hero. Someone no one is talking about who is more ready to play great than others." Could it be Bears fullback Jason McKie, who has to make two dozen great blocks to power the running game? Is it Raheem Brock, who was a Colts defensive end now playing tackle and who beats the guard to get a sack or fumble recovery? Is it Terrence Wilkins, who as the Colts returner had to endure two weeks of everyone talking about Hester?
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