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Livinginthe past
03-23-2007, 03:09 AM
For quick reference (and mock drafts) here is the 'official' draft pick value chart.

http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h218/n_mckeown/draft1.jpg
http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h218/n_mckeown/draft2.jpg

MasterOfPuppets
03-23-2007, 05:04 PM
hmmmmmm.....:tap: i think the steelers should offer al davis thier 7th round choice for the next 310 yrs,for this years first!!!! then we land johnson!!!:jammin: i think the crazy ole,senile coot may go for it!:sofunny:

BettisFan
03-23-2007, 07:25 PM
what do the values count for?

Suitanim
03-23-2007, 08:09 PM
Nothing...it's just a way to quantify a vague system. Some teams use this, some teams don't. Personally I equate it to divining water with a dowsing rod....not scientific at all, just a lot of guesstimating...

BettisFan
03-23-2007, 08:13 PM
whats it for then? lol no reason?

Suitanim
03-23-2007, 08:28 PM
whats it for then? lol no reason?

There's a reason. Everything needs a number, and this is a way to do that. But to say that it's inaccurate is quite the understatement.

Here's an example:

Tom Brady had a draft value of 12.8. Ryan Leaf had a draft value of 2600.

Which QB would YOU prefer?

BettisFan
03-23-2007, 08:43 PM
ha lol kk i get it now

BIGBENFASTWILLIE
03-23-2007, 09:03 PM
I would not mind if the steelers traded down to get a few more draft picks this year.

tony hipchest
03-23-2007, 10:30 PM
i dont look at the chart as quantifying the calibur of player you get, but quantifying the options you have with a certain pick.

the patriots are the only ones with 2 1st round picks. the chart says they could move into perfect position to take laron landry but they would also have many more options such as taking the #1 rb, lb, or cb available. however, they probably get more ultimate values staying where they are and taking the 2 best players left on their board.

of course the chart is just a tool, and you gotta be a little skeptical if it was, in fact, devised by jimmy johnson (who pulled of the biggest draft pick heist in nfl history). i always thought gil brandt had alot to do with its development and use.

this chart would never work though if the nfl mandated that all trades follow its formula

Livinginthe past
03-24-2007, 02:45 AM
Yeah I see it as a rough guide to pick value - I have to admit I am sceptical about the massive leaps in value between the 1st, 1nd and 3rd picks - teams in those positions often have a very obvious need.

I guess the proof is in the pudding, as they say, its an idea to keep an eye on draft day trades and see how they compare to the 'chart'.

MasterOfPuppets
03-24-2007, 03:00 AM
i think this chart was based on the mike ditka move for ricky williams.:sofunny: he set that freakin team back 4 yrs on that deal!:sofunny:

tony hipchest
04-09-2007, 10:58 AM
good write up on the draft trade value chart in peter kings mmqb

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/04/08/mmqb/1.html

he almost sounts hesitant about the chart, yet shows how it workd. i think hes more skeptical about trades in general. its pretty obvious trades in general are about as much as a crapshoot as the picks themselves. thats where you gotta separate the selection slot from the actual player drafted.

3. Too many teams are slaves to the Draft Trade Chart. You may have heard of this chart. It was invented as a way to equalize the value for both sides of a trade in the NFL. I'll use the Giants' silliness as an example of the silliness of the chart. (And I'm not even saying the draft chart was used by Ernie Accorsi when he made this deal; he did not live his life by the chart.) The draft chart assigns a value to each pick in the seven-round draft. Some teams have different values for picks, but the value board does not vary widely.

On the chart I have, the first overall pick is worth 3,000 points; the fourth is worth 1,800. So by the chart, the Giants would have to make up 1,200 points to make the trade. They dealt the 65th pick in the 2004 draft (worth 265 points) and first- and fifth-rounders in 2005. How do you assign value to these picks? For most teams, it's simple. You assume they'll come smack dab in the middle of the round. In this case, the first-round pick in 2005 was worth 1,000, while the fifth-rounder was worth just 34 points. Add those points together, and the Giants actually traded 3,099 points of value for the 3,000 points the top pick was worth.

The only time a team should follow the chart, I think, is when there's such a no-doubt player that you think your team has but one choice, and that's to select Player X. Georgia Tech receiver Calvin Johnson, for instance, in this draft.

On the other side, a team trading down shouldn't think it has to get perfect value in a trade to justify the deal. Case in point: In 1995, when Bill Polian was the Carolina GM, the Panthers had the first pick in the draft. Polian knew he wanted Penn State quarterback Kerry Collins, but he also knew Collins wasn't worth the No. 1 pick. By trading down, even if he didn't get fair "Draft Trade Chart'' value for the pick, he'd be making a smart decision. So he dealt the first pick to Cincinnati for the fifth and 36th overall picks and selected Collins at No. 5. First-pick value: 3,000 points. Combined value of numbers five and 36: 2,240 points.

But Polian knew he couldn't do better, and he also knew if he could get the same player with the fifth pick -- and get a high second-rounder in return, and pay them less, combined, then he would have had to pay the first overall pick -- why not do the deal? Turned out to be just OK for Carolina. Collins did lead the Panthers to the playoffs in his second year, but he and defensive end Shawn King, the second-rounder picked with the other pick from Cincinnati, didn't become the franchise players Polian had hoped for. The Bengals took running back Ki-Jana Carter with the No. 1 overall pick. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose, but you have to judge value based on what you see in front of you at the time -- not as a fixed system of unbending value based on the Draft Trade Chart.

"What's so interesting about the draft,'' said Peterson, "is that the risk-reward ratio is so much different between the top 10 and the picks you make as you go lower in the draft. You find out how hard it is to say good-bye to players in the top 10 of a draft. That's why you don't see the trades you used to see.''

tony hipchest
03-25-2008, 12:29 PM
*bump*

thanks LITP. i always knew you were good for something! :thumbsup:

:chuckle:

in all reality, he actually did bring some good draft talk to the table, with virtually no flame.

anyways, it looks like it will cost us a 6th rounder to swap positions with dallas if we fear them allowing another team to leapfrog us for a player we covet.

lamberts-lost-tooth
03-25-2008, 01:11 PM
*bump*

thanks LITP. i always knew you were good for something! :thumbsup:

:chuckle:

in all reality, he actually did bring some good draft talk to the table, with virtually no flame.

anyways, it looks like it will cost us a 6th rounder to swap positions with dallas if we fear them allowing another team to leapfrog us for a player we covet.

A little LITP love...very nice!:jammin:

19ward86
03-25-2008, 03:28 PM
how is all of our draft picks less than the #2 pick...Ryan Leaf???

MasterOfPuppets
03-25-2008, 10:45 PM
*bump*

thanks LITP. i always knew you were good for something! :thumbsup:

:chuckle:

in all reality, he actually did bring some good draft talk to the table, with virtually no flame.

.yup.....the spotted dick eatin moron, never seen a college game in his life, yet he was an authority on college players.....:uhh:

tony hipchest
03-26-2008, 12:02 AM
yup.....the spotted dick eatin moron, never seen a college game in his life, yet he was an authority on college players.....:uhh:

:dang: :busted: :dang:

i should learn not to speak when im sober. :dang: (i say the craziest things) :sofunny:

GBMelBlount
03-26-2008, 09:16 AM
Tony Hipchest

Anyways, it looks like it will cost us a 6th rounder to swap positions with dallas if we fear them allowing another team to leapfrog us for a player we covet.

Of course what if another team knowing we are contemplating this swap with Dallas cleverly offers them a 5th rounder.... Because I know that you know that I know that you know what I mean. :wink02: Kinda like the poison goblet scene in Princess Bride

MasterOfPuppets
03-26-2008, 10:38 AM
:dang: :busted: :dang:

i should learn not to speak when im sober. :dang: (i say the craziest things) :sofunny:i avoid it whenever possable.....sometimes good mourning comes out wrong....:alcoholic

tony hipchest
04-20-2009, 04:18 PM
:bump:

for reference.

tony hipchest
03-13-2010, 06:32 PM
:bump:

i hate bumpin the turds thread but i do it every year (this is the best and easiest to read value chart that has been posted here).

Aussie_steeler
03-13-2010, 06:48 PM
Here is an interesting article highlighting anomalies in the trade chart. It appears that picks #19 and #20 are unfairly treated in the value chart.

I am not a maths nerd but it is interesting to see how the points are spread.

http://walterfootball.com/tradevaluecharterrors.php


By the way Tony - I think you have just earnt 2 seperate infracts.

1. Bumping a thread

2. Reminding us of Mr LACKINGINTHEPANTS

wdsteel
03-14-2010, 12:41 AM
pudding? where did you get pudding..we can use that to trade up :)

MasterOfPuppets
03-15-2010, 02:17 AM
yup.....the spotted dick eatin moron, never seen a college game in his life, yet he was an authority on college players.....:uhh:

:sofunny: ....i crack me up...

tony hipchest
02-22-2012, 11:21 PM
its that time again... :bump:

http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h218/n_mckeown/draft1.jpg
http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h218/n_mckeown/draft2.jpg

take it for what its worth. of course it pretty much counts for nothing to many casual fans, but for 32 clubs and fans who have a little bit of know how of a FO workings, it is avaluable tool in predicting and estimating how certain scenarios play out, and assigning a value to both the unknown and known.

tony hipchest
02-22-2012, 11:46 PM
last year the falcons traded up to the 6th spot with the browns to draft julio jones.

the 6th spot was worth 1600 pts.

the falcons gave up the 27th pick- 680 pts.
59th- 310 pts.
124th- 48 pts.

plus their 1st round pick from this year (which everyone had to assume would be a playoff team drafting in positions 20-32).

22nd- 780

= 1818.

due to the falcons one and done playoff run, cleveland got the better of the deal to the tune of 218 points wich roughly equates to the 10th pick in the third round. had the falcons made it to the 2nd or 3rd round of the playoffs (like many expected) the deal woulda wound up even steven according to the chart.

according to the chart which just about all teams use (despite what message board savants and wanna be gurus say) any team that gives up a late 1st rounder for mike wallace is getting a complete steal.

tony hipchest
04-27-2012, 07:11 PM
bump for quick draft day reference.

sluggermatt15
04-23-2013, 12:59 PM
This chart is a great resource. I think it quantifies the value of each selection, not necessarily the value of the player who is picked. For example, we've all seen top picks turn out to be busts - Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith - and late rounders become superstars - Tom Brady.

Something that strikes me is the Redskins trade for Robert Griffin III last year. The table here does NOT do justice to what the Redskins gave up. Washington traded up from #6 to #2. They gave away the #6 pick, the #39 selection, the 22nd selection this year, and a 1st-rounder in next year's draft.

If we use the table above, the value equates to:

#2 pick in 2012 (RG III) minus #6 pick : 2600-1600 = 1000
#39 pick in 2012 - 510
#22 pick in 2013 - 780
-----------------------------------
Total value = 1890 + 1st rounder in 2014

Based on this calculation:

According to the value of picks, the chart suggests the Redkins gave up a TON to trade up just 4 spots. If one crunches the numbers, it looks like the price was astronomical. To me, numbers like this did not come into play for the trade. The Rams must have known Washington was after RGIII, and decided to charge a premium to move down.

tony hipchest
04-21-2014, 06:00 PM
:bump:

According to this our pick #15 is worth San Fransisco s 1st, 2nd, & 3rd.