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lamberts-lost-tooth
04-22-2007, 05:56 AM
Espn has an excellent break down of the percentage of NFL starting players (for the 2006 season) and the round they were drafted in..I thought it was very telling as to what positions have better value in later rounds as opposed to what positions should be drafted higher.

Here is the Defensive Breakdown.


DT
Round 1: 32%
Round 2: 12%
Round 3: 11%
Round 4: 7%
Round 5: 9%
Round 6: 12%
Round 7: 5%
Undrafted: 12%
Seventeen teams start at least one first rounder, including 5 of the 7 3-4 defenses..Jacksonville is the only team that starts two first rounders

DE
Round 1: 41%
Round 2: 17%
Round 3: 9%
Round 4: 11%
Round 5: 5%
Round 6: 3%
Round 7: 5%
Undrafted: 9%
Teams tend to look for game changing DE's in the first round, but there are plenty of quality ends to be found in rounds 2-4...and even later.

ILB
Round 1: 23%
Round 2: 10%
Round 3: 23%
Round 4: 15%
Round 5: 8%
Round 6: 0%
Round 7: 3%
Undrafted: 18%
Value in every round until the 5th...Most lower round starters are guys with smaller size but outstanding instincts like Gary Brackett,London Fletcher-Baker & Zach Thomas.

OLB
Round 1: 27%
Round 2: 17%
Round 3: 16%
Round 4: 16%
Round 5: 8%
Round 6: 6%
Round 7: 3%
Undrafted: 8%
This is the position that follows the most linear downward path from round to round...although stars can be found late...Adalius Thomas, Scott Fujita, Dhani Jones....etc.
* side note* 4 out of 6 OLB's voted to this years Pro Bowl play in a 3-4...and none of them played full-time OLB in college but rather DE or DE/OLB.

CB
Round 1: 36%
Round 2: 27%
Round 3: 13%
Round 4: 14%
Round 5: 0%
Round 6: 3%
Round 7: 2%
Undrafted: 6%
You can find starters after round 1..but rarely after round 4...only Oakland started two first rounders last year...First round busts almost ALWAYS had only one full year as a starter in college.

Safeties
Round 1: 11%
Round 2: 36%
Round 3: 14%
Round 4: 9%
Round 5: 13%
Round 6: 5%
Round 7: 3%
Undrafted: 9%
This is the only position where talent peaks in the second round...but the elite (Reed, Polamalu, Williams) usually come in the first)

Specialists
Round 1: 2%
Round 2: 3%
Round 3: 9%
Round 4: 9%
Round 5: 5%
Round 6: 6%
Round 7: 9%
Undrafted: 56%
Both Superbowl K's (Vinatieri and Gould) were UFA's..and the Punters were a 3rd and 7th rounder...So when is a good time to draft a Kicker or Punter?..Teams that lost a couple of close games will start looking in the 3rd or 4th...but wise teams resist..the number of drafted kickers or Punters who develop into long lasting NFl players is astonishingly low.

Livinginthe past
04-22-2007, 06:38 AM
I think a success rate % would have been even more informative - its seems fairly obvious that the players with the most chance of success are found in the 1st round.

Positions regarded as 'high impact' - such as CB, DE and OLB will always be more heavily selected in the earlier rounds.

I think this comes down to the fact that their stats are always alot more accessible (INT's, sacks) and its easier to compile highlight reels of their 'big plays'.

Safeties are gradually coming back into vogue, just like TE's did a few years back - I read an article where these guys were often CB's who were relatively substandard athletes, but now you see 3 or 4 of them with 1st round rankings.

Even though its not mentioned (with typical anti-Patriot bias :sofunny:) all 3 of New Englands D-line starters are 1st rounders.

lamberts-lost-tooth
04-22-2007, 07:17 AM
I think a success rate % would have been even more informative - its seems fairly obvious that the players with the most chance of success are found in the 1st round.

Positions regarded as 'high impact' - such as CB, DE and OLB will always be more heavily selected in the earlier rounds.

I think this comes down to the fact that their stats are always alot more accessible (INT's, sacks) and its easier to compile highlight reels of their 'big plays'.

Safeties are gradually coming back into vogue, just like TE's did a few years back - I read an article where these guys were often CB's who were relatively substandard athletes, but now you see 3 or 4 of them with 1st round rankings.

Even though its not mentioned (with typical anti-Patriot bias :sofunny:) all 3 of New Englands D-line starters are 1st rounders.

Just transcribing the article..no biasm on my part brother!!

Livinginthe past
04-22-2007, 07:23 AM
Just transcribing the article..no biasm on my part brother!!

Heh, I know - I did mean to write that it was ESPn that had typical anti-Patriots bias (tongue in cheek of course!)

SteelCzar76
04-22-2007, 08:17 AM
Sooooo,....basically,...if in doubt,.....draft the best DE or CB still on the board in the 1st ?

lamberts-lost-tooth
04-22-2007, 08:34 AM
Sooooo,....basically,...if in doubt,.....draft the best DE or CB still on the board in the 1st ?

Probably not a bad idea if youre starters are set....and you stay away from those players with only one good year of college stats

SteelCzar76
04-22-2007, 08:54 AM
Probably not a bad idea if youre starters are set....and you stay away from those players with one good year of college stats




My sentiments exactly Tooth. Which will allow me this brief opportunity to,...once again nominate Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker, Tedd Ginn (convert to corner) Chris Houston, or maybe even Leon Hall for our 1st round selection.
As you can see,.... my 'Pimp Hand' is indeed,..... 'StronglikeKong'. :sofunny:

lamberts-lost-tooth
04-22-2007, 09:42 AM
My sentiments exactly Tooth. Which will allow me this brief opportunity to,...once again nominate Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker, Tedd Ginn (convert to corner) Chris Houston, or maybe even Leon Hall for our 1st round selection.
As you can see,.... my 'Pimp Hand' is indeed,..... 'StronglikeKong'. :sofunny:

Agree with most of those with the exception of Ginn and Anderson...Anderson only started one full year...HOWEVER when he came in as a sophmore after Anthony Browns injury,,he played extremely well, and then had a strong Junior year...Ginn worries me..since he is reported to have a fumbling problem.

I will add Revis to your list...I am becoming sold on him after seeing some his highlights on Sportscenter.

SteelCzar76
04-22-2007, 10:46 AM
Agree with most of those with the exception of Ginn and Anderson...Anderson only started one full year...HOWEVER when he came in as a sophmore after Anthony Browns injury,,he played extremely well, and then had a strong Junior year...Ginn worries me..since he is reported to have a fumbling problem.

I will add Revis to your list...I am becoming sold on him after seeing some his highlights on Sportscenter.



I can see your point regarding Anderson's relative inexperience. But, i'm impressed with his athletic upside and his frame which will allow room for growth.
As far as Ginn,...i was thinking more along the lines of sleeper as a converted Corner/Special teams phenom. Moreso as oppossed to just a pure receiver.

Now regarding Revis,.....i can't say i'm sold LLT. He was 'solid' in college. (from what i saw) But he didn't look that much more impressive to me than cats like Hall, Ross or Mcaughley. I tend to think he's being given such late push 'Pub' because of his PA roots.IMO

tony hipchest
04-22-2007, 11:14 AM
tomlin has too much on the line to draft a gamble project with the 15 pick. too much risk involved despite the possible reward.

from the article- ufa ilb's buck the trend with 18%. only 1st and 3rd rounders produce more starters.

i heard an interresting stat being thrown around on sirius last week. UFA's make up 23% of all combined teams rosters. only 1st rounders and 2nd rounders make up a higher % of the league.

green bay leads the league (i think its 16 or so). the steelers only have about 3. both teams finished 8-8. food for thought.

lamberts-lost-tooth
04-22-2007, 11:41 AM
I can see your point regarding Anderson's relative inexperience. But, i'm impressed with his athletic upside and his frame which will allow room for growth.
As far as Ginn,...i was thinking more along the lines of sleeper as a converted Corner/Special teams phenom. Moreso as oppossed to just a pure receiver.

Now regarding Revis,.....i can't say i'm sold LLT. He was 'solid' in college. (from what i saw) But he didn't look that much more impressive to me than cats like Hall, Ross or Mcaughley. I tend to think he's being given such late push 'Pub' because of his PA roots.IMO

Not being from PA..I cant really respond to that aspect of it..but I have no doubt that the "local kid" is always popular....From my perspective however....I have always considered him one of the top 4 CB's (the others being Hall, Ross & Houston)


but look at his resume!!!!

From (PFW)
He started 11 of 12 games as a true freshman, totaling 49 tackles, 12 pass break-ups, and 2 interceptions on the year. He also averaged 10.2 yards per punt return the final two games of the season. As a sophomore, Darrelle totaled 41 tackles, 9 pass break-ups, and led the team with a career high 4 interceptions. He averaged 11.6 yards per punt return on 28 attempts. As a junior, He finished with 39 tackles, 4 pass break-ups, and 2 interceptions. He was named first team all-Big East His Sophmore and Junior year.

He is a durable player who hasn?t missed a single game due to injury. He has an excellent combination of size and speed for a cornerback....having ran a 4.39 Forty at his Pro-day His size 5'11 204 lbs...allows him to matchup against bigger, more physical receivers while his speed allows him to stay with just about any receiver that lines up against him, as well as recover when an opponent does gain separation on him. ....fluid backpedal and he is quick to break on the ball. ... He is a hard hitter and a solid tackler....has not yet reached his full potential..

tony hipchest
04-22-2007, 11:46 AM
the drop off of the 4 highest ranked cb's seems so minute, it seems you get better value taking the 4th one in the late 1st round rather that the 1st one at 15 or so. if we want a cb we should trade down. with that being said, alot of teams are high on revis other than the steelers. the talking heads just give him to us at 15 cause its the easy way out and they can move on to guessing the rest of their board.

SteelCzar76
04-22-2007, 01:18 PM
Not being from PA..I cant really respond to that aspect of it..but I have no doubt that the "local kid" is always popular....From my perspective however....I have always considered him one of the top 4 CB's (the others being Hall, Ross & Houston)


but look at his resume!!!!

From (PFW)
He started 11 of 12 games as a true freshman, totaling 49 tackles, 12 pass break-ups, and 2 interceptions on the year. He also averaged 10.2 yards per punt return the final two games of the season. As a sophomore, Darrelle totaled 41 tackles, 9 pass break-ups, and led the team with a career high 4 interceptions. He averaged 11.6 yards per punt return on 28 attempts. As a junior, He finished with 39 tackles, 4 pass break-ups, and 2 interceptions. He was named first team all-Big East His Sophmore and Junior year.

He is a durable player who hasn?t missed a single game due to injury. He has an excellent combination of size and speed for a cornerback....having ran a 4.39 Forty at his Pro-day His size 5'11 204 lbs...allows him to matchup against bigger, more physical receivers while his speed allows him to stay with just about any receiver that lines up against him, as well as recover when an opponent does gain separation on him. ....fluid backpedal and he is quick to break on the ball. ... He is a hard hitter and a solid tackler....has not yet reached his full potential..





I feel what your saying LLT,... on paper the kid is very solid. But my only question is,,..are his stats mostly a product of playing against Big East passing offenses for the most part ?

What i mean is,... if he's really that good to be talked of as going as high as 15th,...wouldn't he have garnered more attention regarding scouts during the season ?

I heard some give him mention then,.....but nothing to the extent of the praise he's received since his Pro Day though. (And that's somewhat 'suspect' IMO)

lamberts-lost-tooth
04-22-2007, 01:39 PM
I feel what your saying LLT,... on paper the kid is very solid. But my only question is,,..are his stats mostly a product of playing against Big East passing offenses for the most part ?

What i mean is,... if he's really that good to be talked of as going as high as 15th,...wouldn't he have garnered more attention regarding scouts during the season ?

I heard some give him mention then,.....but nothing to the extent of the praise he's received since his Pro Day though. (And that's somewhat 'suspect' IMO)

ESPN has him ranked #23 overall.. with just Hall ranked as a cornerback above him.. that would be a solid #15 pick when value is considered...
...I think alot of why he has flew under the radar is because of where he played....I wouldnt do a backflip if we took him at #15..but I would think it to be a good value based on his talent and our needs

SteelCzar76
04-23-2007, 12:00 PM
ESPN has him ranked #23 overall.. with just Hall ranked as a cornerback above him.. that would be a solid #15 pick when value is considered...
...I think alot of why he has flew under the radar is because of where he played....I wouldnt do a backflip if we took him at #15..but I would think it to be a good value based on his talent and our needs



I'd still take Houston if we went corner at 15th. And possibly Hall, only after i attempted to trade down. I'm of the thinking of those whom consider this a very 'shallow' draft in regards to 'true' 1st round quality players. (Though it's deep with round two quality players)
From what i've seen along with workouts,..Houston is the only 'standout' amongst this class. IMO(Though that's may not being saying a great deal. )
And to me Revis is not much more impressive than any of the other remaining top ten Corners. And though he would be solid,....he'd still be a considerable 'reach' at 15.

Crushzilla
04-24-2007, 07:28 AM
Its kind of interesting to look at these stats...

It seems certain that we need a LB in the first round, but we have impact defensive players who were a steal in later rounds...

I don't even know what to say anymore about the draft... I feel like I'm just stating obvious things... GET HERE ALREADY!