PDA

View Full Version : preaseason record


delhess
08-31-2007, 05:37 AM
well, the regular season is finally almost here. we all can't wait to see how the steelers really perform in a real game.

they have look pretty good in preseason , but after all it's just preseason. the starters don't play much, the game plan is not real, the buffet of players all take their turns trying to impress the coaches. no one really says that we are even trying to win. wins in preseason are an afterthought, right?

so how could your preseason record prove or mean anything? how could you say that winning teams are actually better?

well, check this out, done by the two minute warning guys a couple years ago. it might surprise you!

http://www.twominutewarning.com/preseason-matter.htm

Livinginthe past
08-31-2007, 08:57 AM
I think this may well be a case where the stats don't always prove the point being made and that correlations tend to be co-incidental.

If I could be bothered (I can't) then I would be willing to bet that there is a close relationship between a team's result in the 3rd pre-season game and its overall regular season record - this is the game where you play your starters for longest and gives the best reflection of how your team matches up against anothers.

Anyhow, there are alot of variables that mean you can't put too much weight in your teams pre-season record (but I think performance is more important than some would have you believe).

- Teams who have had a poor previous year may well play their starters longer, especially if they have question marks at key skills positions.

- Teams have different priorities in pre-season games - some want their 1st team to have a light run out, others want to get their team battle hardened. This can make a big difference in a head-2-head match-up.

- Games are often won in the 4th quarter - which can often mean that one teams 3rd string is stronger than another teams 4th string...which isn't going to make too much difference during the actual season.

A quick look at last years division winners, and their pre-season record, kinda proves my point.

Patriots 2-2
Ravens 2-2
Colts 1-3
Chargers 2-2

Eagles 2-3
Bears 2-2
Saints 1-3
Seahwks 2-2

From that we can see not one of the teams who made the playoffs actually posted a winning record in pre-season.

It was a good post though, something to think about.

Atlanta Dan
08-31-2007, 09:11 AM
Of course 4-1 means nothing but if the Steelers went 1-4 there would be a wide sense of dread about the coming season - with a new coach I think the preseason matters to set the tone after a change in regimes.

In some other cases preseason results are a leading indicator - when the Steelers went 0-4 last year in preseason it was a precursor to a 1-3 start as the Steelers and their unfocused HC treated the start of the 2006 season as a victory lap.

fansince'76
08-31-2007, 09:27 AM
Of course 4-1 means nothing but if the Steelers went 1-4 there would be a wide sense of dread about the coming season - with a new coach I think the preseason matters to set the tone after a change in regimes.

And it delays the inevitable cries to fire Tomlin for a couple more weeks, at least.

ChronoCross
08-31-2007, 09:46 AM
I could care less if we win pre season games are not. There has been many teams that have won every pre season game and then did not make the play offs. The focus of pre season is to properly evaluate your talent and put the best 53 man roster out there. Teams that focus on winning pre season games and playing there starters longer then other teams just to noch up a win normally fail in regular season because while there playing there regular starters longer they have guys on the bench they should have out there evaluating. You play your starters limited as you can just to get them up to speed and keep them away from injury at all cost if you can.

So if we went 0-4 are 1-4 I would not care, as long as are starters are healthy and we field the best 53 man roster we can to provide us with the best chance at contending.

And last year we had so much distraction, how could we start off good.

rog
08-31-2007, 10:01 AM
The Raiders were undefeated last year in the preseason. Enough said? I think so.

onthebus36
08-31-2007, 10:11 AM
I disagree for a couple reasons.

1- The Steelers, having a brand new head coach, are in a different position than many other teams. Winning helps build confidence and trust in the new coaching staff.

2- Winning in the preseason can also be an indicator of drive, passion, fire, guts, or whatever you choose to call it. Last year, the Steelers had a soft camp, didn't apply much effort in the preseason going 0-4, and lost six of their first eight games. Sure, injuries were a factor but so were turnovers and sloppy play. In short, the Steelers had a half-assed pre-season and that contributed to a half-assed season.

3- I also firmly believe in what the military calls "tradition of victory." Winning is always better than losing and while a winning record in the preseason is statistically meaningless, I think a team with a winner's mindset goes into the regular season better prepared to win.

We are dealing with 32 teams of elite athletes. Often what seperates the winners from the losers is coaching, preparation, and atttitude. While we haven't seen much of the first element, I think the Steeler's preseason shows they are prepared and have a winning attitude.

While the preseason doesn't matter, I think it does matter in the case of the Steelers this season and I'm encouraged by what I've seen.

rog
08-31-2007, 10:23 AM
I'm not sold on the Steelers being a playoff contender just yet. Their record might be good but I have still seen inconsistant play. The o-line still looks like it needs a bit more work, the defense on 3rd down has looked bad at times, and it just might be me but it seems like it takes quite awhile to get the running game going. The 4-1 record is nice but I still wouldn't read too much into it.

Smashmouth225
09-01-2007, 12:28 PM
I disagree for a couple reasons.

1- The Steelers, having a brand new head coach, are in a different position than many other teams. Winning helps build confidence and trust in the new coaching staff.

2- Winning in the preseason can also be an indicator of drive, passion, fire, guts, or whatever you choose to call it. Last year, the Steelers had a soft camp, didn't apply much effort in the preseason going 0-4, and lost six of their first eight games. Sure, injuries were a factor but so were turnovers and sloppy play. In short, the Steelers had a half-assed pre-season and that contributed to a half-assed season.

3- I also firmly believe in what the military calls "tradition of victory." Winning is always better than losing and while a winning record in the preseason is statistically meaningless, I think a team with a winner's mindset goes into the regular season better prepared to win.

We are dealing with 32 teams of elite athletes. Often what seperates the winners from the losers is coaching, preparation, and atttitude. While we haven't seen much of the first element, I think the Steeler's preseason shows they are prepared and have a winning attitude.

While the preseason doesn't matter, I think it does matter in the case of the Steelers this season and I'm encouraged by what I've seen.Love this post. Tomlin has them ready. I don't think we are going to beat our self with with crazy penalties and turnovers this year. You can tell already, last year in the pre-season you could tell they were full of themselves ya know. Probably figuring they can turn on it at any time and that's how it happened to them

MasterOfPuppets
09-01-2007, 01:33 PM
Posted: 08/28/2007
Preseason record doesn't reflect regular-season success
By Pat Kirwan | NFL.com



The third weekend of the preseason is hyped as the week we all get a great glimpse of what teams will really look like when the regular season rolls around. The starters are supposed to play at least a half of the game and possibly the first series of the third quarter. Do yourself a big favor, though: Don't read too much into the final score.

Settling roster spots and position battles take precedence over wins and losses this time of year. For example, Oakland continues its quarterback rotation and this week Daunte Culpepper gets the start after Josh McCown started the first game and Andrew Walter went first last week. Every coach likes to win, but there is very little research to support the idea that preseason football is a time to "teach" winning. The numbers say something quite different, in fact. I'm sure the fans in Detroit, Chicago, Miami, and Dallas are excited by the 2-0 start and the possibility of a 4-0 preseason record, but don't make those Super Bowl plans just yet; an undefeated preseason does not equate to a successful regular season.





Last year was a perfect case in point. Not one division winner had a winning record in the preseason.

New England Patriots 2-2
Baltimore Ravens 2-2
Indianapolis Colts 1-3
San Diego Chargers 2-2
Philadelphia Eagles 2-3
Chicago Bears 2-2
New Orleans Saints 1-3
Seattle Seahawks 2-2




If you go back and look at the division winners over the last three years, it's clear that winning in preseason isn't very significant. There have been 24 division winners in three years and the number of those teams that had a winning record in the preseason: 4.

Lets take it a step further and look at the significance of an undefeated preseason. Carolina, Cincinnati and the New York Giants all posted 4-0 preseason records last summer, leading to heightened expectations from fans and media alike. Lots of people proclaimed the Panthers were headed to the Super Bowl, the Bengals could outscore any team in the NFL and the Giants were building a dynasty. All three teams finished 8-8.

Since 2003, nine teams wrapped up the August schedule 4-0 and only four of them produced winning record in the fall.

The Colts have won four straight AFC South titles and, of course, are the reigning world champions. Their preseason record during that four-year run is 5-12. In other words, nobody should be alarmed that they are 0-2 right now. The Eagles have won the NFC East three of the last four years; during those championship seasons, they managed to deliver a combined 4-9 summer record. The Panthers have gone undefeated in the preseason in three of the last four years. A perfect 12-0 and only once in those three years (2003) did it translate into a division title. The only year they didn't go undefeated in the dress rehearsal season was 2005 when they finished at 2-2. And they made the playoffs that year as a wild card.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade of those teams on their way to a winning preseason. But when I hear people say that young coach got his first win the other night or "he teaches his team how to win" or "that kind of effort is going to change the culture in the locker room," I must send up the yellow caution flag. I was with the Jets one year when we went 5-0 in the preseason and a few months later we were all looking around wondering how we went 6-10 during the real season.

Elvis
09-01-2007, 01:33 PM
I honestly think that our Steelers will be better this year than last, but will it be good enough to get into the playoffs? Its hard to tell really
New England Baltimore and San Diego look like my favorites to win the AFC, but stranger things have happened. What about Denver and Cincinnati and N.Y. Jets and Indianapolis and our Steelers in no particular order? The AFC is gonna be very tough this year and I think that the Steelers will have to win atleast 10 games to get in as a wildcard team.. But we all know that winning the Super Bowl from a wild-card spot can be done..
:tt02:

Preacher
09-01-2007, 11:16 PM
So let's go out and lose our preseason games!!!

:yawn:

Winning OR LOSING preseason games mean nothing.

I really don't care that we went 4-1 in the preseason, except that it showed our kicker could make some good field goals, and that WITHIN that record, our 1st team defense played pretty dang well.