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jtmill
09-26-2007, 11:13 AM
For all you dreamers out there...:thumbsup:


Steelers Heading to the Playoffs? Football Outsiders Says Go Ahead And Bet The Farm
By Blitzburgh
Posted on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:39:06 AM EDT

Wow I love Football Outsiders. The latest gem I've discovered is their DVOA Playoff Odds Report. Basically, FO has played out the season 5,000 times using an equation based on their metrics plus home-field advantage (take the time at some point to read their explanations of how their metrics are derived). Here's what they came up with:

Odds of Pittsburgh making the Playoffs = 94.1%

Odds of Steelers winning the AFC North = 79.7% - um, for those writers out there who aren't convinced that the Steelers are in the same class as the Bengals and Ravens yet? I dare you to take on FO's metrics.

Odds of Steelers securing #1 Seed in Playoffs = 36.9% - interestingly enough, only the New England Patriots are a safer bet to make the playoffs (99.1%), but Pittsburgh is still more likely to claim the top seed (36.9% vs. 34.4%).

A few more interesting nuggest from their projections: San Diego's got work to do. As of now, their likelihood at making the playoffs is a mere 21.8%. The Bengals better get after it as well. Their chances are 16.6% for the moment. Here was also a big shocker that I'd like to spend more time thinking about: Tampa Bay is slightly more likely than Indianapolis (10.5% vs. 9.3%) to win the Super Bowl

Oh, and by the way, Your Pittsburgh Steelers are, at the moment, the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Hey, it's just one computer's 'opinion', but I'd rather such prognostications be coming from an algorithem than a human's stream of consciousness.

TackleMeBen
09-26-2007, 11:17 AM
Playoffs??????????????? Are you talking about Playoffs????????

(sorry i couldnt resist it..lol)

fansince'76
09-26-2007, 11:18 AM
Too early.

rog
09-26-2007, 11:19 AM
It is way to early for me to read stuff like that.

jtmill
09-26-2007, 11:20 AM
Yea, I'm not getting my hopes up, but it's still nice to think about.

Livinginthe past
09-26-2007, 12:26 PM
For all you dreamers out there...:thumbsup:


Steelers Heading to the Playoffs? Football Outsiders Says Go Ahead And Bet The Farm
By Blitzburgh
Posted on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:39:06 AM EDT

Wow I love Football Outsiders. The latest gem I've discovered is their DVOA Playoff Odds Report. Basically, FO has played out the season 5,000 times using an equation based on their metrics plus home-field advantage (take the time at some point to read their explanations of how their metrics are derived). Here's what they came up with:

Odds of Pittsburgh making the Playoffs = 94.1%

Odds of Steelers winning the AFC North = 79.7% - um, for those writers out there who aren't convinced that the Steelers are in the same class as the Bengals and Ravens yet? I dare you to take on FO's metrics.

Odds of Steelers securing #1 Seed in Playoffs = 36.9% - interestingly enough, only the New England Patriots are a safer bet to make the playoffs (99.1%), but Pittsburgh is still more likely to claim the top seed (36.9% vs. 34.4%).

A few more interesting nuggest from their projections: San Diego's got work to do. As of now, their likelihood at making the playoffs is a mere 21.8%. The Bengals better get after it as well. Their chances are 16.6% for the moment. Here was also a big shocker that I'd like to spend more time thinking about: Tampa Bay is slightly more likely than Indianapolis (10.5% vs. 9.3%) to win the Super Bowl

Oh, and by the way, Your Pittsburgh Steelers are, at the moment, the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Hey, it's just one computer's 'opinion', but I'd rather such prognostications be coming from an algorithem than a human's stream of consciousness.

This is what happens when you let a computer make calculations without entering all the relevant parameters.

Seriously, where do they get this stuff from?

1. Steelers have an 80% chance of winning the AFCN (after 3 games) - so that means the other 3 teams have only a 20% chance between them?

Sorry thats utter crap.

2. Tampa Bay (an NFC team lets remember) more likely to win the SB than last years Champs - the Colts?

Laughable.

I bet their 'metrics' fly up and down like a yo-yo after every game - if Pittsburgh lost against Arizona (which they wont) their odds of winning the AFCN would probably drop to about 50%.#

Simple common sense tells you that this all utter nonsense - give me a gut feeling everytime over such random bogus, knee-jerk metrics.

lamberts-lost-tooth
09-26-2007, 12:31 PM
This is what happens when you let a computer make calculations without entering all the relevant parameters.

Seriously, where do they get this stuff from?

1. Steelers have an 80% chance of winning the AFCN (after 3 games) - so that means the other 3 teams have only a 20% chance between them?

Sorry thats utter crap.

2. Tampa Bay (an NFC team lets remember) more likely to win the SB than last years Champs - the Colts?

Laughable.

I bet their 'metrics' fly up and down like a yo-yo after every game - if Pittsburgh lost against Arizona (which they wont) their odds of winning the AFCN would probably drop to about 50%.#

Simple common sense tells you that this all utter nonsense - give me a gut feeling everytime over such random bogus, knee-jerk metrics.

Hmmmmmm...sounds vaguely like congress explaining the national budget.

Fire Haley
09-26-2007, 12:47 PM
I hate this kind of talk.

I'm not pulling out my pom-poms till January.

Dino 6 Rings
09-26-2007, 01:06 PM
Unless the Cardinals are in the playoffs against us this Sunday...playoff talk now is not something we (the 5 rings) are interested in. Beat down the Cards, crush their running game, continue to excel and improve in all phases of the game. Then move on to game film of whatever team dared put us on their schedule. (I do know who is next but will not mention their name because until Sunday night, they are irrelevant.)

HometownGal
09-26-2007, 01:18 PM
Very nice article, but it's a bit premature to be putting the Steelers into the playoffs and beyond going into Week #4. While our Steelers have played championship-calibre football the past 3 weeks, there is still a long, LONG season ahead of us with some very formidable matchups. I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched.

SteelerFanInCA
09-26-2007, 02:00 PM
Agreed, way too early for this kind of talk.

TackleMeBen
09-26-2007, 02:04 PM
Very nice article, but it's a bit premature to be putting the Steelers into the playoffs and beyond going into Week #4. While our Steelers have played championship-calibre football the past 3 weeks, there is still a long, LONG season ahead of us with some very formidable matchups. I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched.

you mean you not going to count your Sepulveda's before they are punted..lol

Haiku_Dirtt
09-26-2007, 02:28 PM
Hmmmmmm...sounds vaguely like congress explaining the national budget.

Thanks for saying what I'm thinking

Haiku_Dirtt
09-26-2007, 02:36 PM
1. Steelers have an 80% chance of winning the AFCN (after 3 games) - so that means the other 3 teams have only a 20% chance between them?

Sorry thats utter crap.

Actually it's not utter crap. It's about probability.

It's why they call the college course "Statistics" and not "Realities."

Or say the 2001 AFC Championship Game. "Statistically" The Steelers should have won that game. But the "Reality" is that computers can't tell when someone is cheating.:wink02: Talk about crappy.

Preacher
09-26-2007, 03:09 PM
Actually it's not utter crap. It's about probability.

It's why they call the college course "Statistics" and not "Realities."

Or say the 2001 AFC Championship Game. "Statistically" The Steelers should have won that game. But the "Reality" is that computers can't tell when someone is cheating.:wink02: Talk about crappy.

DOH!

:wink02:

CanadianSteel
09-26-2007, 03:19 PM
Playoffs??????????????? Are you talking about Playoffs????????

(sorry i couldnt resist it..lol)

Yes Jim Mora at his finest.... my other fav is of course " You play .....to win the game"

Seriously though, looking forward to a great year but playoff talk is a bit premature at this point !

memphissteelergirl
09-26-2007, 03:20 PM
Yea, I'm not getting my hopes up, but it's still nice to think about.


Yeah, it's nice, but way too early to speculate..

One game at a time....

Livinginthe past
09-26-2007, 04:00 PM
Actually it's not utter crap. It's about probability.

It's why they call the college course "Statistics" and not "Realities."

Or say the 2001 AFC Championship Game. "Statistically" The Steelers should have won that game. But the "Reality" is that computers can't tell when someone is cheating.:wink02: Talk about crappy.

Funnily enough you don't have to explain the concept of probability to me.

The statistics are used to project the future 'reality' - otherwise there is no point in them.

Are you seriously contending that if we played this season out 5 times that the steelers would win it 4 times?

I do realise im asking this question on a Steelers forum.

83-Steelers-43
09-26-2007, 04:02 PM
It's September 26. Get back to me in December.

Amusing read to say the least.

Stlrs4Life
09-26-2007, 04:07 PM
Wayyyyyyyyyy too early. I'll wait and see how we perform the game stretch after the bye week.

Haiku_Dirtt
09-26-2007, 05:36 PM
I do realise im asking this question on a Steelers forum.

You're not going to the " realise im asking this question on a Steelers forum" card. That's like pulling out the "everybody cheats" card.

Probability is a rather simple result to vastly complex theories. Usually the simple answer isn't precise but more exact which is why the "+/- " is attached.

What is likely to happen is anyone's guess? But that's just not good enough for mathematicians. They need that likelihood to be represented by a numerical value. :paperbag:

Livinginthe past
09-26-2007, 06:52 PM
You're not going to the " realise im asking this question on a Steelers forum" card. That's like pulling out the "everybody cheats" card.

Probability is a rather simple result to vastly complex theories. Usually the simple answer isn't precise but more exact which is why the "+/- " is attached.

What is likely to happen is anyone's guess? But that's just not good enough for mathematicians. They need that likelihood to be represented by a numerical value. :paperbag:

Right.

So thats twice you've attempted to explain how probability works - as I said before - I know how it works.

What I am disputing is the values they come up with - if I say the Lions have an 85% chance of winning the SB this year it doesn't make it right just because mathmeticians like to see 'numerical values'.

So on that note - do you think that the Steelers would win this division 4 times out of 5 from this position, if you could rewind time and do just that?

wadester47
09-26-2007, 07:18 PM
HA- can I be the obnoxious one who says, this week could be a SUPER BOWL preveiw?????????????

KIdding..........no seriously!

paw-n-maul-u
09-26-2007, 09:00 PM
Right.

So thats twice you've attempted to explain how probability works - as I said before - I know how it works.

What I am disputing is the values they come up with - if I say the Lions have an 85% chance of winning the SB this year it doesn't make it right just because mathmeticians like to see 'numerical values'.

So on that note - do you think that the Steelers would win this division 4 times out of 5 from this position, if you could rewind time and do just that?

of course the article is bogus. Is the question your are asking, if the steelers started the season 3-0, and the ravens were 2-1, and cincy, was 1-2, and browns were 1-2,

and basically we rewind to this exact point, 5 times, yes? id say the steelers have a more than realistic shot at winning the division 4 out of 5 times.

I bet what throws the stats off, is that the steelers don't have a division loss, ravens browns, and bengals all do, ... wouldnt that be entered into some formula as steelers batting a 1.000 in the division while, at best, the rest are .500? i dunno, im just thinking.

win the division, with the defense cincy has, and the questions on offense from the ravens. no doubt, actually, 4 out of 5.

Haiku_Dirtt
09-27-2007, 05:16 AM
[QUOTE=Livinginthe past;299983] - I know how it works.

What I am disputing is the values they come up with -QUOTE]

OKAY. I'm LONG ETF tickers MZZ and QID which means I'm ULTRA SHORT the S&P 400 and QQQ. I'm betting for an ugly downturn before Thanksgiving.

The beauty in disputing values (as I do) is in the opportunity. The ONLY reason this is a topic is because people are making bets.

The values they come up with are historical to a degree. Disputing values is where the money is made. But they have to give us a number to work with so choices can be made.

Why are you so shocked that a team w/ a 3-0 record has a better chance to win the division? Add to the equation that management has a track record. It's rare but betting the Steelers to win the Big One could be a bet that will outpace US GDP in 2008.

rog
09-27-2007, 12:08 PM
Statistics, Probability, Numeric value this stuff is enough to make me go crossed eyed. I say lets watch and enjoy the whole season the we will know who actually made the playoffs then we can see how close this article was besides it is only September and the season goes by way too quick to be talking playoffs now.

Preacher
09-27-2007, 02:40 PM
Statistics, Probability, Numeric value this stuff is enough to make me go crossed eyed. I say lets watch and enjoy the whole season the we will know who actually made the playoffs then we can see how close this article was besides it is only September and the season goes by way too quick to be talking playoffs now.

You really want to go crosseyed?

Wait till a few more games are played, then take the point totals of this year and T-test them against the last few years in a 2-tale test to see if Tomlin has made a statistically significant change in the offensive effectiveness. Then do the same with the defense.

If both those resulting number are statistically significant, then Tomlin has been effective over Cowher, and can be said that he has made a change with 95% probability!

:stirthepot: :wave:

rog
09-27-2007, 03:06 PM
You really want to go crosseyed?

Wait till a few more games are played, then take the point totals of this year and T-test them against the last few years in a 2-tale test to see if Tomlin has made a statistically significant change in the offensive effectiveness. Then do the same with the defense.

If both those resulting number are statistically significant, then Tomlin has been effective over Cowher, and can be said that he has made a change with 95% probability!

:stirthepot: :wave:


You lost me at "You really want to go crosseyed?"

fansince'76
09-27-2007, 03:41 PM
You really want to go crosseyed?

Wait till a few more games are played, then take the point totals of this year and T-test them against the last few years in a 2-tale test to see if Tomlin has made a statistically significant change in the offensive effectiveness. Then do the same with the defense.

If both those resulting number are statistically significant, then Tomlin has been effective over Cowher, and can be said that he has made a change with 95% probability!

:stirthepot: :wave:

Gawd - just had a bad flashback to my college stats course, especially with the mention of the good ol' "T" and "2-tailed" tests. :yuck:

Preacher
09-27-2007, 04:24 PM
Gawd - just had a bad flashback to my college stats course, especially with the mention of the good ol' "T" and "2-tailed" tests. :yuck:

:sofunny:

Yeah...

Funny story. I was a bible major, master of divinity, doctor of ministry. I had NO use nor need for math. The only math I had to take was a course in astronomy for a science credit. The math was pretty easy.

So I am sitting in my last seminar (my doctoral seminars were one week deals, 8-5, with night study or classes when necessary).

Out of the blue... WHACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A two hour lecture on statistics and how we need to use statistical analysis to measure the effectiveness of our doctoral projects.

I JUST ABOUT FELL OVER DEAD!!!

One class away from NEVER having to go to school again, free from math since highschool.....

and WHACK. I was so mad!

fansince'76
09-27-2007, 04:31 PM
:sofunny:

Yeah...

Funny story. I was a bible major, master of divinity, doctor of ministry. I had NO use nor need for math. The only math I had to take was a course in astronomy for a science credit. The math was pretty easy.

So I am sitting in my last seminar (my doctoral seminars were one week deals, 8-5, with night study or classes when necessary).

Out of the blue... WHACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A two hour lecture on statistics and how we need to use statistical analysis to measure the effectiveness of our doctoral projects.

I JUST ABOUT FELL OVER DEAD!!!

One class away from NEVER having to go to school again, free from math since highschool.....

and WHACK. I was so mad!

Being a Comp Sci major, I felt the same way about all the humanities classes I had to take. Sorry, being a professional computer geek, I don't need to be all that well-versed in 18th-19th century American Lit. Besides, I had already read most of the assigned readings on my own time out of my own interest, since reading is one of my hobbies anyway. It was the time (not to mention the money) I still had to spend on those classes that torqued me off.

sixstringlass
09-28-2007, 05:16 AM
Very nice article, but it's a bit premature to be putting the Steelers into the playoffs and beyond going into Week #4. While our Steelers have played championship-calibre football the past 3 weeks, there is still a long, LONG season ahead of us with some very formidable matchups. I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched.

I've been meaning to ask you... why is that you bold and capitalize the last "s" in "Steelers"?

HometownGal
09-28-2007, 10:14 AM
I've been meaning to ask you... why is that you bold and capitalize the last "s" in "Steelers"?

Because there are illiterate Steelers fans out there who refer to our team as "Steeler". :dang: If you call yourself a fan, know their proper name for God's sake! :dang:

sixstringlass
09-29-2007, 09:03 AM
Because there are illiterate Steelers fans out there who refer to our team as "Steeler". :dang: If you call yourself a fan, know their proper name for God's sake! :dang:

People DO that?!?!?! Write the name like that, I mean??

Sheesh.

The population is devolving.

Elvis
09-29-2007, 08:06 PM
I think that its kind of too early to start thinking about
playoffs. But, every game counts!!!
Just remember that... Every Win Gets Us Closer
To Our Dream..
:tt02::tt02::tt02: