View Full Version : "Vikings Had a Crystal Ball"

tony hipchest
05-02-2008, 09:27 AM
this is a good explanation of why vikings trading for allen was a good and fair deal, and it also shows how well the draft trade value chart does work if used properly.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story;jsessionid=1AB4A465DCE661B3E01A623C0BD39C8A? id=09000d5d808186c7&template=with-video&confirm=true

The Vikings traded for 26-year-old defensive end Jared Allen before the draft. In my discussions with the Vikings before and after the draft it became clear to me they knew they had to be proactive in the pursuit of Allen -- otherwise they would have had to execute the kind of plan the Jaguars implemented in order to select Derrick Harvey. Minnesota got a proven pass rusher who is in the prime of his career and should be able to complete the next five years of his contract with little problem. Allen will line up next to Kevin Williams or Pat Williams which should only increase his production over the next five seasons. He averaged 11 sacks a season for the past four years and over the next five he could hit 60 sacks (12 per season). But it was the compensation package to get him along with the actions of the Jags that makes it look like Minnesota had a crystal ball.

If you look at the value chart to study the deal -- and I know both teams did -- then it compares favorably with what Jacksonville gave up to draft Harvey. Minnesota surrendered pick No. 17 (1,070 points), No. 73 (225 points), No. 82 (180 points) and swapped a later pick which actually gave the Vikings back 5 points. The grand total in value points for Allen was 1,470 -- and he's already signed, sealed and delivered. As it turns out, 1,470 points is the value of the No. 8 pick in the first round, the spot Jacksonville had to get to in order to draft Harvey.

Jacksonville knew Harvey was rising up the draft boards fast, just as Minnesota believed before the draft. Jacksonville went from no. 26 in the first round to no. 8 and the point total from the value chart equaled 1,247. Harvey has a chance to be a fine pro, but for 223 more points -- equivalent to the 10th pick in the third round -- the Vikings got Allen and still kept their second round pick which they used on fast-rising safety Tyrell Johnson.