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Preacher
08-15-2008, 10:28 PM
I find it utterly amazing... amongst all the doom and gloom liberals... that once3 again, when it starts to really count, the world turns to the US and our stability for economic strength.

Surge for the dollar as global fears rise

By our international staff
Published: August 15 2008 10:20 | Last updated: August 15 2008 19:14
The dollar surged to a two-year high against the pound and a six-month peak against the euro on Friday, as fears about spreading economic gloom triggered a sell-off in commodities.
Against sterling, the US currency notched up its 11th consecutive day of gains – its longest uninterrupted rise in more than 35 years – as markets became increasingly convinced that the US was best-placed to weather the global downturn.



The strong dollar rebound undermined sentiment in the gold market, where prices fell below $800 for the first time this year to $774.90 a troy ounce, almost a quarter lower than early March’s record $1,030.80.
Prices for crude oil, platinum, copper, aluminium, corn and soyabeans have also retreated from records hit this year, prompting speculation that commodity prices have reached a turning point.
“The golden age when commodity prices could only go up is gone,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at Unicredit.
Military tensions between Russia and Georgia have offered little support to the price of gold, while oil prices have continued to fall in spite of interruptions to two key pipelines carrying crude from the Caspian sea to Turkey.
The long-running surge in commodities and resulting inflationary pressures had been a main factor in slowing global economic activity – playing a bigger role than global financial turmoil, for instance, in the eurozone. The eurozone economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time since the launch of the euro in 1999, while Japan’s economy contracted 0.6 per cent, its worst performance for seven years. The US staged at least a modest recovery in the same period.
The latest commodity price falls are unlikely to prompt any early reaction from central banks, market observers said. The European Central Bank remains concerned that high inflation rates will become entrenched and US inflation data this week showed consumer prices rising at the fastest rate since January 1991.
Analysts were divided on the outlook for commodities. Lehman Brothers believed oil prices had peaked, while Goldman Sachs repeated its forecast that they would hit $149 by the end of the year.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a benchmark for commodities, fell more than 2.5 per cent to its lowest level since late March. The index has fallen almost 20 per cent since an all-time high in July, but is still 22 per cent higher than a year ago.
Report by Peter Garnham, Chris Flood and Javier Blas in London and Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
Copyright (http://www.ft.com/servicestools/help/copyright) The Financial Times Limited 2008


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc97963e-6aa9-11dd-b613-0000779fd18c.html


So let me get this right...

The US economy GREW while two of the most powerful economies in the world shrank... but the US is in TERRIBLE shape... Right?

You gotta be a contortionist to follow the logic of doom and gloom anymore.

Atlanta Dan
08-15-2008, 10:56 PM
I find it utterly amazing... amongst all the doom and gloom liberals... that once3 again, when it starts to really count, the world turns to the US and our stability for economic strength.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc97963e-6aa9-11dd-b613-0000779fd18c.html


So let me get this right...

The US economy GREW while two of the most powerful economies in the world shrank... but the US is in TERRIBLE shape... Right?

You gotta be a contortionist to follow the logic of doom and gloom anymore.

Ummm - isn't McCain running the ad that we are worse off than we were 4 years ago:chuckle:

When a currency strengthens, it's usually a sign of health in the underlying economy. In this case, the dollar's rally is a sign of weakness in other economies. Reports in recent days showed that the economies of Japan and Europe contracted in the second quarter, and the U.K. slowed. It's now looking less likely that the rest of the world will be insulated from U.S. economic ills.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121884105817145699.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Not terrible but here in Georgia unemployment is at a 15 year high, inflation is perking right along, and houses in my subdivision have been for sale since spring with no sales

Preacher
08-16-2008, 01:55 AM
Ummm - isn't McCain running the ad that we are worse off than we were 4 years ago:chuckle:
[I]

LIke I said... all the liberals....


America has the healthiest economy... in a world downturned economy... but dangit... that doesn't fit the Bush sucks mantra...

tony hipchest
08-16-2008, 02:08 AM
LIke I said... all the liberals....


America has the healthiest economy... in a world downturned economy... but dangit... that doesn't fit the Bush sucks mantra...isnt that kinda like saying the rest of the world has terminal cancer but america only has heart disease?

Preacher
08-16-2008, 02:13 AM
isnt that kinda like saying the rest of the world has terminal cancer but america only has heart disease?

No..

It is a recognition of a circular economic cycle and that within such a cycle... even as the world is on the down turn... the US is seen as the safest and best place to protect investments...

the psychology of that is undeniable... it is a strength that is seen in our nation. A strength that not even the major super-state economies can touch.

tony hipchest
08-16-2008, 02:38 AM
No..

It is a recognition of a circular economic cycle and that within such a cycle... even as the world is on the down turn... the US is seen as the safest and best place to protect investments...

the psychology of that is undeniable... it is a strength that is seen in our nation. A strength that not even the major super-state economies can touch.
so what youre saying is that its like saying a 300 lb fatman is healthier than a 400 or 500 lb fatman? :chuckle:

:popcorn:

Mosca
08-16-2008, 10:35 AM
LIke I said... all the liberals....


America has the healthiest economy... in a world downturned economy... but dangit... that doesn't fit the Bush sucks mantra...

It's not just the liberals, Preacher, although they are definitely worried as well. Most economists, regardless of their political stripe, believe that there are serious problems with the world economy, AND with the American economy. Frankly, I don't consider our current administration "conservative". I consider it "psychotic". Real conservatives would have never gone down the path we have traveled over the past 8 years.

The fact that America is best placed to weather the storm doesn't mean things are good; just that we aren't as bad as many others.

I appreciate your relentless optimism; but we need to address the issues, tighten our belts, wean our economy off of easy credit without killing it, balance the national budget, turn the guns into plowshares, and figure out how to do all of this without poisoning the planet. It isn't going to be easy, and specifically it isn't going to be easy on a personal level for a lot of Americans who are in the middle class, and used to being there... and it isn't going to matter if our government is liberal or conservative. It just isn't going to be easy.

I do share your optimism that we'll get through it... but I don't share your outlook that everything is fine, because my eyes (and wallet) say that it isn't.

Atlanta Dan
08-16-2008, 05:24 PM
LIke I said... all the liberals....


Not according to that ad - McCain is "The Original Maverick" :chuckle:

Don't know if evoking comparisons to a runt borderline psychotic like Tom Cruise is where I would go if I were the campaign,but that is no less amusing than the rest of the ad, in you could have substituted Obama for McCain and made the same arguments

Preacher
08-16-2008, 05:45 PM
It's not just the liberals, Preacher, although they are definitely worried as well. Most economists, regardless of their political stripe, believe that there are serious problems with the world economy, AND with the American economy. Frankly, I don't consider our current administration "conservative". I consider it "psychotic". Real conservatives would have never gone down the path we have traveled over the past 8 years.

The fact that America is best placed to weather the storm doesn't mean things are good; just that we aren't as bad as many others.

I appreciate your relentless optimism; but we need to address the issues, tighten our belts, wean our economy off of easy credit without killing it, balance the national budget, turn the guns into plowshares, and figure out how to do all of this without poisoning the planet. It isn't going to be easy, and specifically it isn't going to be easy on a personal level for a lot of Americans who are in the middle class, and used to being there... and it isn't going to matter if our government is liberal or conservative. It just isn't going to be easy.

I do share your optimism that we'll get through it... but I don't share your outlook that everything is fine, because my eyes (and wallet) say that it isn't.

I don't think everything is "fine." I think that we are in a down cycle... and have said that for quite some time.

What is the difference you ask? My argument is that, well, we are in the middle of a really bad flu season... and too many people are acting like it is an Ebola outbreak. Sure, the similarities are there... but just because there are some new componets to this flu doesn't mean it IS Ebola.

IN the same way... we are dealing with stuff... new stuff. but it is part of a common cycle. The cycle may be deeper then normal. It may have a different texture, but it IS the same cycle... Matter of fact, we aren't even IN a recession yet... I actually think it WILL get worse before it gets better.

Now, I do agree that we need to deal with issues like credit, making bankruptcy more of a stigma again, deal with energy (we ReALLY need to drill in the short term and figure out an alternate source in the long term.).

We also need more guns, not less. One of the very reasons that America is still considered safe is because we have the ability to protect our land and investments... Sadly, that is the realpolitik

tony hipchest
08-16-2008, 07:13 PM
What is the difference you ask? My argument is that, well, we are in the middle of a really bad flu season... and too many people are acting like it is an Ebola outbreak. Sure, the similarities are there... but just because there are some new componets to this flu doesn't mean it IS Ebola.



:huh:
again, isnt that kinda like saying the rest of the world has terminal cancer but america only has heart disease?:hunch:



I do share your optimism that we'll get through it... but I don't share your outlook that everything is fine, because my eyes (and wallet) say that it isn't.

mosca, i agree. that pinch in the wallet kinda feels like a lobster in the pocket. :chuckle:

lamberts-lost-tooth
08-16-2008, 07:28 PM
:huh:
mosca, i agree. that pinch in the wallet kinda feels like a lobster in the pocket. :chuckle:

Yikes....Did anyone else wince at that?

tony hipchest
08-16-2008, 08:06 PM
Yikes....Did anyone else wince at that?:laughing: so what youre saying is that wince from the pocket is worse than ebola?

GHBhkQZr0zU

:toofunny:

tony hipchest
08-17-2008, 12:03 AM
Front pocket or rear? :noidea:so what youre really asking is if its better to be castrated or to take it in the rear?

great question. personally, i believe a "bird" in the hand is worth more than 2 terms of bush. :noidea: but what do i know other than im used to peeing standing up :monkey:

Mosca
08-17-2008, 10:52 AM
I don't think everything is "fine." I think that we are in a down cycle... and have said that for quite some time.

What is the difference you ask? My argument is that, well, we are in the middle of a really bad flu season... and too many people are acting like it is an Ebola outbreak. Sure, the similarities are there... but just because there are some new componets to this flu doesn't mean it IS Ebola.

IN the same way... we are dealing with stuff... new stuff. but it is part of a common cycle. The cycle may be deeper then normal. It may have a different texture, but it IS the same cycle... Matter of fact, we aren't even IN a recession yet... I actually think it WILL get worse before it gets better.


Thing is, unless someone sounds the alarm bells, the cycle doesn't readjust; it keeps going the wrong way. Making the noises is the thing that causes the corrections and makes it a cycle instead of a spiral. So, what sounds to you like doom and gloom sounds to me like people taking control of something that is dangerously close to disaster, and keeping that from happening. If everyone just kept on doing what they were doing, it WOULD fall apart. The alarms ARE the correction, and whether they are "liberal" or "conservative" (or, as in this case, BOTH), they need to be sounded.

Preacher
08-17-2008, 11:14 AM
Thing is, unless someone sounds the alarm bells, the cycle doesn't readjust; it keeps going the wrong way. Making the noises is the thing that causes the corrections and makes it a cycle instead of a spiral. So, what sounds to you like doom and gloom sounds to me like people taking control of something that is dangerously close to disaster, and keeping that from happening. If everyone just kept on doing what they were doing, it WOULD fall apart. The alarms ARE the correction, and whether they are "liberal" or "conservative" (or, as in this case, BOTH), they need to be sounded.

the historical cycle isn't based on people "sounding the alarm bell" It is based on firmer economic truths than that. The overview from 100,000 feet is that when things get too expensive because of a hot economy, people stop spending money which brings a recession which is, ultimately, deflationary. Then prices fall into the range people are willing to spend money for, and they do so.

What is DANGEROUS to this cycle is people harping doom and gloom, because it scares people that would otherwise start putting their money into the economy into holding it even tighter. The result is a self-fulfilled prophecy.

Money doesn't disappear. It just stops being spent.

Godfather
08-17-2008, 03:01 PM
the historical cycle isn't based on people "sounding the alarm bell" It is based on firmer economic truths than that. The overview from 100,000 feet is that when things get too expensive because of a hot economy, people stop spending money which brings a recession which is, ultimately, deflationary. Then prices fall into the range people are willing to spend money for, and they do so.

What is DANGEROUS to this cycle is people harping doom and gloom, because it scares people that would otherwise start putting their money into the economy into holding it even tighter. The result is a self-fulfilled prophecy.

Money doesn't disappear. It just stops being spent.

I like to think of it this way: For every action there's a lesser and opposite reaction. You can apply that to just about anything in economics.

lamberts-lost-tooth
08-17-2008, 03:14 PM
Front pocket or rear? :noidea:

for some of us...either way would be just as bad....you know, genetics and all that.:flex::checkit:

lamberts-lost-tooth
08-17-2008, 03:16 PM
:laughing: so what youre saying is that wince from the pocket is worse than ebola?

GHBhkQZr0zU

:toofunny:

You can talk about open heart surgery all day and I wont even blink....one good "rack" story has me squirming for an hour.

revefsreleets
08-18-2008, 08:55 AM
We desperately need to learn lessons from each of these set-backs. Did we learn anything from the S&L fiasco? Enron? The dot com implosion? The housing implosion? Yeah, we have a jugernaut economy, but this is like a constant sandstorm slowing eroding away the infrastructure, and if we don't keep up and evolve, we are in deep trouble, the long-term kind. We cannot rely on the fact that we just "always recover", because one day we won't.