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View Full Version : Alex Smith = 1st Round Bust


Edman
08-22-2008, 09:01 PM
J.T O'Sullivan wins the starting QB job in San Fran.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/26354573/

ShutDown24
08-22-2008, 09:18 PM
I kind of thought J.T. was going to win it there, I hope he succeeds too.

You know what I wanna see? The Bears trade for Alex Smith lol

MACH1
08-22-2008, 09:47 PM
Alex Smith = Future dolphins qb.

stlrtruck
08-22-2008, 10:56 PM
Alex Smith = Future dolphins qb.

Impossible he's still got way too much potential to be a dolphin right now.

Preacher
08-23-2008, 03:21 AM
isn't this just his third year?

How long did it take Bradshaw to get it down? What about some others?

I wouldn't call him a bust yet... But yeah, he seems to be struggling.

The Duke
08-23-2008, 03:51 AM
who the hell is J.T O'Sullivan ?

is alex smith really that bad? he's basically had one bad season, an average season and one injury filled season

he could still turn it around, with some other team probably, his coaches obviously don't want him

similar situation with grossman in chicago

isn't this just his third year?

How long did it take Bradshaw to get it down?


would be interesting to see if it turned out in a similar way....

Galax Steeler
08-23-2008, 06:32 AM
Alex Smith = Future dolphins qb.

:toofunny::toofunny: Yea all the good quarterbacks do seem to end up down there don't they.

RoethlisBURGHer
08-23-2008, 10:10 AM
I bet he could florish in a team that is actually slightly stable.

The San Fransisco 49ers are one of the most unstable franchises in professional football.

Alex Smith has had three offensive coordinators, one for each year. When Norv Turner was his OC he had an okay year. The Turner left to HC in San Diego.

Now he's on his fourth OC, Mike Martz, who's offense is rather complex and takes a while to learn.

If Alex Smith ended up in Kansas City, Chicago, or Minnesota...I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a decent career.

Or he could be so mentally and/or physically damaged that he's the next David Carr.

STEELtownHAVOX
08-23-2008, 10:34 AM
This is top of my head without actually looking it up, but wasn't Aaron Rodgers in the same draft class as Smith? He would have been a hell of a better pick.

Godfather
08-23-2008, 10:40 AM
Yes, Rodgers was 20th in that draft.

Problem with that draft is there weren't any big time talents who should clearly have been top ten picks. Good news for Smith is he's still only 23 years old. Another team can pick him up and try to make it work. The Bears would be a good choice because they have a defense and a running game to help him.

MACH1
08-23-2008, 10:49 AM
Impossible he's still got way too much potential to be a dolphin right now.

:toofunny:

silver & black
08-23-2008, 11:49 AM
I bet he could florish in a team that is actually slightly stable.

The San Fransisco 49ers are one of the most unstable franchises in professional football.

Alex Smith has had three offensive coordinators, one for each year. When Norv Turner was his OC he had an okay year. The Turner left to HC in San Diego.

Now he's on his fourth OC, Mike Martz, who's offense is rather complex and takes a while to learn.
If Alex Smith ended up in Kansas City, Chicago, or Minnesota...I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a decent career.

Or he could be so mentally and/or physically damaged that he's the next David Carr.


It seems that other than his success with the Rams, Martz hasn't done anything with any team he has gone to. It seems that everywhere he goes, that team flounders.

Godfather
08-23-2008, 11:50 AM
who the hell is J.T O'Sullivan ?


He was the backup to Aaron Brooks in New Orleans.

AARON BROOKS.

xfl2001fan
08-23-2008, 12:02 PM
The Bears would be a good choice because they have a defense and a running game to help him.

Who do they have that can run since Thomas Jones left?

ShutDown24
08-23-2008, 12:07 PM
Here is my extent of knowledge on J.T. O'Sullivan...

- Journeymen QB, has backed up in Minnesota, New Orleans, Detroit (I think)

- Won (Or at least played in) an NFL Europa championship game

- I think he's in his mid - late 20's

- May surprise people, he's actually a pretty good passer

RoethlisBURGHer
08-23-2008, 12:13 PM
It seems that other than his success with the Rams, Martz hasn't done anything with any team he has gone to. It seems that everywhere he goes, that team flounders.

Well after St. Louis didnt he go straight to the Detroit Lions as their OC? Getting stuck with John Kitna as your starting QB to run a complicated offense isn't going to exactly work well.

This will be his first season as 49ers OC.

RoethlisBURGHer
08-23-2008, 12:14 PM
This is top of my head without actually looking it up, but wasn't Aaron Rodgers in the same draft class as Smith? He would have been a hell of a better pick.

I dont think it matters who they picked, it was a draft choice doomed to fail, at least in San Fransisco.

The Duke
08-23-2008, 12:27 PM
He was the backup to Aaron Brooks in New Orleans.

AARON BROOKS.

:rofl:



Here is my extent of knowledge on J.T. O'Sullivan...

- Journeymen QB, has backed up in Minnesota, New Orleans, Detroit (I think)

- Won (Or at least played in) an NFL Europa championship game

- I think he's in his mid - late 20's

- May surprise people, he's actually a pretty good passer

well, the coaches obviously see something good in him

alex smith has definitely gone the way carr's career went. rodgers seems could become the best qb of hat class. though campbell's good too

MACH1
08-23-2008, 12:39 PM
I think J.T. was on the lions with Martz. And Martz has a man crush on J.T. Thats how he ended up at the niners with Martz.

millwalldavey
08-23-2008, 01:02 PM
Didn;t he sing that "Alone again, Naturally" song in the 70's?

Oh... that was Gilbert O'Sullivan

http://www.lyred.com/covers/gilbert_o'sullivan_-_greatest_hits_-_mam.jpg

lilyoder6
08-23-2008, 01:40 PM
i feel bad for alex smith.. he could never progress his game yr by yr b/c of the fact that evry off-season he was learning a new playbook.. he needs a stable OC to see what he can rly do

silver & black
08-23-2008, 09:18 PM
Well after St. Louis didnt he go straight to the Detroit Lions as their OC? Getting stuck with John Kitna as your starting QB to run a complicated offense isn't going to exactly work well.

This will be his first season as 49ers OC.

You might be right about that. His name gets thrown around a lot... I thought he was with somone else also. I stand corrected.

SteelersJW
08-24-2008, 08:46 AM
Yeah, Alex Smith is a bitch.

Godfather
08-24-2008, 12:55 PM
Who do they have that can run since Thomas Jones left?

Matt Forte, second round pick out of Tulane (ROLL WAVE!). Ran for 2000 yards last season.

xfl2001fan
08-24-2008, 03:17 PM
So they have an unproven rookie...and you're counting on defenses to be concerned with Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman to keep pressure on teams? Forgive if me while I laugh uproariously at the lack of logic.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!one!!!oneON E

RoethlisBURGHer
08-24-2008, 09:34 PM
So they have an unproven rookie...and you're counting on defenses to be concerned with Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman to keep pressure on teams? Forgive if me while I laugh uproariously at the lack of logic.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!one!!!oneON E

Kinda like last year with the Vikings and Adrian Peterson, huh?

I mean, nobody expected Peterson to be as good as he was last year, especially with Tavaris Jackson at QB.

Running back is the easiest position for a rookie to have immediate success. You see the hole, you run through the hole. No reading defenses, no hoping the QB doesn't hang you out to dry with a high pass over the middle.

xfl2001fan
08-25-2008, 12:56 PM
Kinda like last year with the Vikings and Adrian Peterson, huh?

I mean, nobody expected Peterson to be as good as he was last year, especially with Tavaris Jackson at QB.

Running back is the easiest position for a rookie to have immediate success. You see the hole, you run through the hole. No reading defenses, no hoping the QB doesn't hang you out to dry with a high pass over the middle.

Yes, but we're talking about Chicago's offensive line vs Minnesota's.

For all that AP had a few great games...he had several forgettable ones too. IMO, his season was built on (roughly) 3 or 4 great/good games. He also had Chester Taylor (who is a more than serviceable backup) to help take the pressure off of him.

Who does Forte have that's worth mentioning? No receivers, no QB, a not-so-great offensive line and an aging defense filled with injury plagued stars.

steelreserve
08-26-2008, 11:45 AM
is alex smith really that bad? he's basically had one bad season, an average season and one injury filled season

An average season is not enough when you're the #1 overall pick in the draft, and that's been the BEST of his three years. He's getting paid $8 million-plus per season and can't even hold down a starting job that he was groomed for since the day he was drafted. I think it's safe to say he's a bust.

I don't get what the 49errs thought was so special about this guy. He has average strength, average mobility, average accuracy and average decision-making. He might have been the "safe" pick coming out of college because you knew you were getting a serviceable quarterback, but he really never showed a ton of potential to improve upon just "serviceable." On top of it all, the scouts say his hands are too small to grip the football effectively, which is going to limit his ability to develop much further. I don't know what they were thinking.

Then again, this is a perfect example of why the 49ers are the 49ers.

Dino 6 Rings
08-26-2008, 11:53 AM
The kid had it out with his head coach and those two will never get along now. He needs to move on after this season, try to get on as a back-up somewhere that doesn't have a franchise qb and work to get the starting spot. If he's good enough, he'll get the job. Lions, Rams, Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Texans, Bears, Bucs, Panthers, all could have openings on their QB Depth Chart at the start of next season that could allow for Alex Smith to make a play for the starting job.

stlrtruck
08-26-2008, 12:16 PM
In his defense, he's had a different offensive coordinator every year. That's not good for any QB. Look at the problems we had when our offensive coordinators were changing.

You've got to bring some stability to the team in the coaches as well as with the players.

steelreserve
08-26-2008, 01:16 PM
In his defense, he's had a different offensive coordinator every year. That's not good for any QB. Look at the problems we had when our offensive coordinators were changing.

You've got to bring some stability to the team in the coaches as well as with the players.

True, but I think his mediocrity extends beyond what you'd expect from rotating in new players and coaches. If he was going to be a great quarterback, you'd at least see flashes of greatness even under those circumstances. All you get with Smith are flashes of slightly-above-average.

Look at it this way: The guy has never thrown for 300 yards, and only has a handful of 200-yard games, all of which were either against shitty opponents or in blowout losses. The only times he's broken 100 QB rating were in 2006 against the Rams (8-8), Raiders (2-14) and Seahawks (9-7). Here are all the games in which he threw for 200 yards or more:

Yds Opp OppRecord Game Result
288 Ari (5-11) 34-27 L
233 StL (8-8) 20-13 W
293 Phi (10-6) 38-24 :L
214 SD (14-2) 48-19 L
201 GB (8-8) 30-19 L
209 Pit (10-6) 37-16 L

That's it. Six games of 200 yards or more for his career, all but one of which were losses. Add in whatever mitigating circumstances you want, but that's not the kind of production you want out of a #1 overall pick.

stlrtruck
08-26-2008, 02:19 PM
True, but I think his mediocrity extends beyond what you'd expect from rotating in new players and coaches. If he was going to be a great quarterback, you'd at least see flashes of greatness even under those circumstances. All you get with Smith are flashes of slightly-above-average.

Look at it this way: The guy has never thrown for 300 yards, and only has a handful of 200-yard games, all of which were either against shitty opponents or in blowout losses. The only times he's broken 100 QB rating were in 2006 against the Rams (8-8), Raiders (2-14) and Seahawks (9-7). Here are all the games in which he threw for 200 yards or more:

Yds Opp OppRecord Game Result
288 Ari (5-11) 34-27 L
233 StL (8-8) 20-13 W
293 Phi (10-6) 38-24 :L
214 SD (14-2) 48-19 L
201 GB (8-8) 30-19 L
209 Pit (10-6) 37-16 L

That's it. Six games of 200 yards or more for his career, all but one of which were losses. Add in whatever mitigating circumstances you want, but that's not the kind of production you want out of a #1 overall pick.

I'm not questioning the validity of his lack of output. I was just saying maybe if the team had more stability, then maybe he'd have better numbers.

But you are right. For a #1 overall, you'd expect him to deal with the circumstances better.

xfl2001fan
08-26-2008, 02:48 PM
#1 picks rarely go to teams that have stability. Top-5 picks generally go to teams in a crappy cycle of transition. In this particular case, he went to a team with Frank Gore and....????

That's not exactly promising. He's dealing with his best WR corps this season, since he was drafted.

Former Cardinal(should tell you something)Bryant Johnson, the aging Isaac Bruce at #2, and Arnaz Battle with TE Vernon Davis. That's his starting WR Corps. Now Bruce is a savvy veteran, but he's past his prime. Vernon Davis is a poor man's Kellen Winslow (i.e. WR playing TE) and Bryant Johnson...well he did have to contend with two very talented WR's taking up many of the passes. Then again, 9 Career TD receptions (over 5 years) isn't exactly scary.

I'm not sure how many QBs could work with that crew and have an extremely productive season.

Look at his offensive line. It's not like he's had the greatest protection up front either. In 7 games last year, he was sacked 17 times. The season before, he was sacked 35 times. Not exactly Roethlisberger-worthy numbers, but 2 sacks per game average usually means that you're hit another 6-8 times per game which is too much.

1st round bust? Maybe, but you won't know until he's played for a team that's making progress in other parts of the team or has all the pieces in place except a QB.

lilyoder6
08-26-2008, 03:38 PM
i think davis is a good te and have a break-out yr.. evryone on that off did horrible last yr.. hopefully gore can regain his form

revefsreleets
08-26-2008, 04:21 PM
Alex Smith was and is a college system QB, but he had a little better talent than some. I'd say it shakes out as:

Alex Smith = or < Colt Brennan

Only difference is Smith went to Utah and Brennan went to Hawaii. Same caliber of competition, but Brennan played in the more QB friendly system.

Steelman16
08-26-2008, 07:19 PM
Yeah, but Colt Brennan wasn't drafted until the 4 or 5th round. That's the difference.

A first rounder, especially a top-5 pick, is expected to perform by at least his 3rd year in the league.

Brennan on the other hand, has to rise to that level himself. He has no great expectations to live up to.

I think Brennan will be better than Alex Smith, and will end up being a starting for a team, albeit late in his career like Aaron Rodgers.

Smith is a bust, and unless he's suddenly resuerrected, his NFL career is going to transform into a journeyman backup, if that. He can't even beat out O'Sullivan for the job right now.

steelreserve
08-26-2008, 07:27 PM
Smith is a bust, and unless he's suddenly resuerrected, his NFL career is going to transform into a journeyman backup, if that. He can't even beat out O'Sullivan for the job right now.

Exactly. This guy has Ty Detmer written all over him. Maybe even Koy Detmer.

lilyoder6
08-26-2008, 07:53 PM
u tell me any rookie qb coming in and starting day one to learn a brand new off yr in and yr out and tell me how good they are after 4 or so yrs

CantStop85
08-26-2008, 08:27 PM
If it's any consolation, Smith still looks better than Matt Leinart.

revefsreleets
08-27-2008, 08:23 AM
No, that WAS my point. Smith never should have been picked in the first round...Brennan plays and plays well, and he becomes a value pick, but Smith was almost doomed from the start, since he was drafted too high for his talent level.

LambertIsGod58
08-31-2008, 05:10 AM
#1 picks rarely go to teams that have stability. Top-5 picks generally go to teams in a crappy cycle of transition. In this particular case, he went to a team with Frank Gore and....????

That's not exactly promising. He's dealing with his best WR corps this season, since he was drafted.

Former Cardinal(should tell you something)Bryant Johnson, the aging Isaac Bruce at #2, and Arnaz Battle with TE Vernon Davis. That's his starting WR Corps. Now Bruce is a savvy veteran, but he's past his prime. Vernon Davis is a poor man's Kellen Winslow (i.e. WR playing TE) and Bryant Johnson...well he did have to contend with two very talented WR's taking up many of the passes. Then again, 9 Career TD receptions (over 5 years) isn't exactly scary.

I'm not sure how many QBs could work with that crew and have an extremely productive season.

Look at his offensive line. It's not like he's had the greatest protection up front either. In 7 games last year, he was sacked 17 times. The season before, he was sacked 35 times. Not exactly Roethlisberger-worthy numbers, but 2 sacks per game average usually means that you're hit another 6-8 times per game which is too much.

1st round bust? Maybe, but you won't know until he's played for a team that's making progress in other parts of the team or has all the pieces in place except a QB.


Vernon Davis a "poor man's Kellen Winslow"? Not a fair statement when SF has virtually no offensive line and no quarterback to throw to him.

Glace
08-31-2008, 08:42 AM
I think smith will find greater success with another team. Stability, as mentioned above, is key.

steelreserve
09-02-2008, 11:05 AM
Vernon Davis a "poor man's Kellen Winslow"? Not a fair statement when SF has virtually no offensive line and no quarterback to throw to him.

Dude, Vernon Davis isn't a poor man's Kellen Winslow -- he's a homeless man's Kellen Winslow. For three years he hasn't been able to figure out the offense, and he seems to drop everything that's thrown his way. Another huge waste of a draft pick if you ask me.

xfl2001fan
09-02-2008, 06:21 PM
Dude, Vernon Davis isn't a poor man's Kellen Winslow -- he's a homeless man's Kellen Winslow. For three years he hasn't been able to figure out the offense, and he seems to drop everything that's thrown his way. Another huge waste of a draft pick if you ask me.

For three years he's had three different offensive coordinators and (I believe) at least three different QBs throwing him the ball.

Vernon Davis a "poor man's Kellen Winslow"? Not a fair statement when SF has virtually no offensive line and no quarterback to throw to him.

Wow, replace SF with Cleveland and you could pretty much describe what KWII has been through up until last year (and most people here will say he's only got an OL now.)

steelreserve
09-03-2008, 11:37 AM
For three years he's had three different offensive coordinators and (I believe) at least three different QBs throwing him the ball.

OK, the fact that the whole organization sucks definitely doesn't make it easy on him. But then again, you've also got the notion that if the team sucks, you have to be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

A guy like Frank Gore? He's part of the solution, despite being surrounded by incompetence. Braylon Edwards? He does pretty well in Cleveland despite having constant QB shakeups.

Davis, on the other hand ... he's just doing OK at best, and that's being generous. I really don't think too highly of him.

xfl2001fan
09-03-2008, 12:46 PM
OK, the fact that the whole organization sucks definitely doesn't make it easy on him. But then again, you've also got the notion that if the team sucks, you have to be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

A guy like Frank Gore? He's part of the solution, despite being surrounded by incompetence. Braylon Edwards? He does pretty well in Cleveland despite having constant QB shakeups.

Davis, on the other hand ... he's just doing OK at best, and that's being generous. I really don't think too highly of him.

Yeah, he hasn't helped out much, but TE's generally need at least one deep threat on their team to be effective underneath. He hasn't had a lot of that with the 49ers. How Frank Gore plays so well is beyond me, because (by conventional thinking) teams should just be crowding the box and not allowing him anything.

steelreserve
09-03-2008, 04:44 PM
Yeah, Gore's success mystifies me too. Maybe the 49ers actually do know how to block, but just have no QB and a group of shitty receivers.

I'm sure Davis isn't helped by being on that team. Maybe I'm just so pessimistic about him because it's the 49ers, and they had a stretch where they drafted so terribly that I still can't believe they'd pick anybody good.

SteelersJW
09-03-2008, 07:35 PM
I think Smith losing Norv Turner really screwed him up. It seemed like he was getting on track right before he went off to San Diego. Oh well, it's not like I care how the 49ers do.