View Full Version : McCain, Obama, or PELOSI for president?

10-06-2008, 03:38 AM
Now, I admit, the scenario here is a bit unlikely.

But heck, we think the politics are bad now? Bad in 2000? Imagine THIS scenario

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - What if it's a tie?
A handful of battleground states are likely to determine the November 4 U.S. presidential election and it's possible that Republican John McCain (http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/johnmccain) and Democrat Barack Obama (http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/barackobama) could split them in a manner that leaves each just short of victory.
If that happens, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would pick the president but it's unclear whether Democrats would have enough votes to send Obama to the White House.
The House last decided an election in 1824. But the legal skirmishing and partisan rancor would probably resemble a more recent election -- the 2000 vote in which Republican George W. Bush narrowly defeated Democrat Al Gore after a disputed Florida vote count and legal battle.
"This would be the seamy side of democracy, the lobbying and the money would be so intense," said American University history professor Allan Lichtman.
In the United States, presidential elections are determined on a state-by-state basis rather than a nationwide popular vote. Each state, along with the District of Columbia, is allotted a number of votes in the Electoral College that correspond to the number of representatives it has in Congress. To become president, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes.
If McCain wins Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio but loses Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa to Obama, both candidates could end up with 269 electoral votes.
Other, less likely scenarios -- McCain losing Virginia and New Hampshire but winning Michigan, for example -- also could result in a tie.
Under the U.S. Constitution, the House would then decide the election when it meets in January, with each state getting one vote -- regardless of its size -- if the chamber has to break a tie.
Democrats, who control the 435-seat House, outnumber Republicans in 27 state congressional delegations and could see that number rise in the November elections.
Republicans have a majority in 21 state delegations. Two states have an equal number of Republican and Democratic representatives.
Some members could feel pressure to vote for the other party's candidate if he carried their state or district or if he won a clear margin of the national popular vote, said Northwestern University law professor Robert Bennett.
They would also be under extraordinary pressure from party leaders to stick together.
"There would be bargaining in that context and lots of room for rancor and bitterness. It would be a mess," Bennett said.
The dispute probably would not be confined to Congress.
"Do you believe for one moment that this won't end up in the courts?" Lichtman said.
Other possible scenarios, according to Bennett:
* Before the House meets, the Obama and McCain campaigns could try to convince the Electoral College voters who actually cast each state's electoral votes to switch their support. This has happened occasionally in past elections but has never affected the outcome of an election. Electors in roughly half of the states are bound by law to honor the popular vote.
* While the House picks a president, the Senate picks the vice president in the event of a tie. The Democratic-controlled chamber could pick Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden (http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/joebiden) even if McCain wins the House vote.
* The newly minted vice president could become acting president if the House doesn't reach a resolution by the time President George W. Bush leaves the White House on January 20.
* House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would become acting president if neither chamber could settle on a president or vice president but she would have to resign her post.
(Editing by David Alexander)


AD... help me on this...

But isn't it even possible for the house to pick someone who WASNT a candidate? I don't remember.

I could even see Lieberman being elevated in a scenario like that.

What would NOT be good is a Rep. president and a dem vp, or a Dem vp. and a rep. president.

I think the president, in this day and age and rancor, would be assinated, REGARDLESS of who it was... and THEN imagine the partisanship. Because it WOULD come out.

10-06-2008, 08:21 AM
Haven't you seen the polls? It's Obama in a landslide, so this is all a moot point...

(sarcasm smiley)

10-06-2008, 09:05 AM
Pelosi is a scary thought.

Now, you think this country is dividing itself when it comes to politics, imagine how much worse it would be if this happened. There would be no trust anywhere, and I could see it getting violent in some aspects.

10-06-2008, 09:12 AM
The House cannot pick someone who didn't get an electoral vote. They choose the President from the top three candidates.

Pelosi cannot be POTUS because there the Senate WILL choose a veep. Even if it somehow wnds up 50-50, Cheney will break the tie because the new Senate comes in January 3 and would vote on the new VP January 6 or 7, before Cheney's term is up. But that would require several major upsets...in reality the new Senate will elect Biden. If the House doesn't make a decision by January 20 Biden will be acting president until the House chooses a President.

Here's another twist that could ma ke a mess. Louisiana won't finish its House elections until December. For the past 30 years they put all candidates in the same primary and if nobody got 50% the top twio went to a runoff. This year they changed it to a three-step system. Party primary, party runoff if necessary, general election. Hurricane Gustav forced the state to postpone the party primaries to this past weekend which should have been the party runoffs. The party runoffs for LA-4 are now November 4 and the LA-4 general election is now in December.

LA-1 and LA-5 are safely Republican and if LA-7 goes D it's lights out anyway. LA-3 is represented by a D who was re-elected without opposition. LA-6 will be settled November 4 because both party primaries were unopposed; the D's took it in a special election this summer and the R is running a weak campaign. LA-2 technically won't be settled until December because Freezer Guy got forced into a party runoff, but the D nomination might as well be the election.

That leaves a 3-3 plit in Louisiana....LA-4 is an open seat and there are runoffs for both party nominations. If neither party has 26 delegations going into the LA-4 general election it could decide the Presidency :popcorn:

10-06-2008, 12:46 PM
Yeah, that's crazy. If there's a tie, obviously they'll just go into overtime and whoever scores first wins - (although my money is on Obama's kicking leg.)

10-06-2008, 12:52 PM
Reading the thread title reminds me of a multiple choice question where you don't know the answer. You take the wrong answers, which are easy Pelosi and Obama , and you are left with McCain. Not the right answer, but the best. Scary stuff for our future.

10-06-2008, 02:41 PM
Reading the thread title reminds me of a multiple choice question where you don't know the answer. You take the wrong answers, which are easy Pelosi and Obama , and you are left with McCain. Not the right answer, but the best. Scary stuff for our future.

Scary stuff for my children's future!!!!

10-07-2008, 07:56 PM
Pelosi as Prez?

I think my colon just mended itself together.