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Preacher
10-06-2008, 09:56 PM
(CBS) In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.

The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/01/opinion/polls/main4491938.shtml) released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/23/politics/main4376926.shtml) and Sarah Palin (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/29/politics/main4397232.shtml) faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/25/opinion/polls/main4478890.shtml) by five percentage points on Sept. 25.

In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.

Barack Obama (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/08/22/politics/main3193625.shtml) holds a 20 point lead in terms of enthusiasm. Fifty-eight percent of Obama voters say they are very enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 38 percent of John McCain (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/08/22/politics/main3193619.shtml) voters say the same about the Arizona senator.

Roughly one in five registered voters have yet to commit to a candidate, though they may lean towards one or the other.
http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/common/images/bug_pdf.gif Read The Complete CBS News Poll On The Presidential Race And The Debates (http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08a-ALL.pdf)
http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/common/images/bug_pdf.gif ...And On The Bailout Plan, Congress And The President (http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08a-bailout.pdf) Interest in tomorrow's presidential debate is high. Roughly two in three registered voters say they are "very likely" to watch the debate, about the same percentage who said they were very likely to watch the first presidential debate and the vice presidential debate.

A CBS News poll (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/27/politics/2008debates/main4482119.shtml) conducted last week showed that more uncommitted voters thought Obama won the first debate, and nearly half of all voters expect he will win this debate too. Just one in four expect McCain to win.

The Vice Presidential Debate:

Both Biden and Palin appear to have benefited from their performance in the vice presidential debate. Both now have 40 percent approval ratings - an increase of six points for Biden and eight points for Palin from their pre-debate approval ratings.

Palin's unfavorable rating of 32 percent is significantly higher, however, than Biden's 19 percent unfavorable rating. And on the key questions of whether each candidate is ready to be vice president, or, if necessary, president, majorities see only Biden as passing the test.

Seventy-five percent of registered voters say Biden is prepared to be vice president, and 65 percent say he could be an effective president; just 42 percent say Palin is prepared to be vice president and only 37 percent say she could be an effective president. Even Republicans are more likely than not to concede Biden could be an effective president.

As uncommitted voters did in a CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/03/politics/2008debates/main4497138.shtml) conducted immediately after the debate, registered voters who watched the debate give the “win” to Biden, 50 percent to 31 percent.

Both Biden and Palin improved their overall images somewhat in the debate, and both are seen by about six in ten voters as sharing their values. About one in three registered voters say the vice presidential candidates will have a lot of influence on their vote in November, the same percentage that said as much before the debate.

The Top Of The Ticket:

Obama continues to lead McCain when it comes to his overall favorable/unfavorable rating: The Democratic nominee has a favorable rating of 46 percent and an unfavorable rating of 34 percent. Registered voters are more closely split on McCain, who holds a favorable rating of 40 percent and an unfavorable rating of 38 percent.

Sixty-two percent of registered voters see both Obama and McCain as having the ability to be an effective president.

McCain has distanced himself somewhat from President George W. Bush, who currently has among the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. In this poll, 38 percent say that if elected president McCain would generally continue Mr. Bush’s policies, down from 46 percent last month. This is the lowest percentage to link McCain to the president’s policies since last April.

Obama has lost some ground when it comes to perceptions of how he would handle the economy, though he still leads McCain when it comes to the issue.

Twenty-four percent of registered voters are "very confident" that the Democratic nominee would make the right decisions on the economy, down five points from before the presidential debate. Forty-one percent are not confident, up from 34 percent.

Fifteen percent are "very confident" in McCain when it comes to the economy, meanwhile, and 44 percent are not confident.

The race continues to be close among independents. In this poll McCain has a small edge, 44 percent to 39 percent, among the group. At the end of last week it was Obama with a small lead. Independents have swung back and forth between the two candidates for the last few weeks.

Obama is leading among Democrats, liberals, moderates and voters who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. He has not improved his support among former Clinton voters in recent weeks, and presently has the support of roughly two in three.

McCain is leading among Republicans, Independents and conservatives. He is also leading among whites, including both white Catholics and white evangelicals, as well as whites making less than $50,000 a year who do not have a college degree.

The Bailout Plan, Congress And The President:

Last week Congress enacted a financial rescue plan on its second try - and while Americans are more negative than ever about the state of the economy, a majority (51 percent) disapprove of the bailout package. Just 31 percent say they approve.

Americans continue to think Wall Street is more likely to benefit from the government’s economic bailout than the rest of the country. Sixty-percent say the plan will just benefit Wall Street, while 30 percent say it will help everyone.

A majority of Americans now disapprove of the government providing money to financial institutions. A week ago Americans were evenly split on the question; now just 36 percent approve while 52 percent disapprove.

And even though a majority remains much more accepting of the idea of helping homeowners, even that number is down from last week, with 54 percent now approving and 37 percent disapproving.

Few Americans approve of how either the president or Congress is handling the financial crisis. Both receive identical 21 percent approval ratings on the measure.

Fifty-five percent now say the economy is in very bad shape - the highest number ever recorded in a CBS News Poll. Only 11 percent think the condition of the economy is even somewhat good.

Moreover, Americans remain pessimistic about the economy’s future: three in four think the economy is getting worse. Only 3 percent think the economy is getting better, while one in five thinks it is staying the same.

President Bush’s overall job approval rating is 22 percent - the same as it was last week and the lowest of his presidency. Congress also receives dismal overall ratings from the public. Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job, the same as last week. Seventy-two percent now disapprove of Congress’ job, including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/06/opinion/polls/main4504633.shtml


We're in for a long month.

tony hipchest
10-06-2008, 10:06 PM
but on this board polls dont matter. :hunch:

Atlanta Dan
10-06-2008, 10:12 PM
Yep - as you and I discussed in posts yesterday, pollsters are just throwing darts and hoping this year; depends which poll you track as to who has the momentum

WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Widens Lead
OCTOBER 7, 2008

Independent Voters Move Toward Obama
New Poll Indicates That Democrat Ticket Is Benefiting From Financial Crisis

Independent voters are starting to swing behind Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who continue to benefit from economic turmoil and the public response to their debate performances, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The survey, conducted over the weekend, was full of good news for the Democratic presidential ticket. Sen. Obama increased his advantage over Republican rival John McCain when voters were asked which candidate they prefer to handle economic issues at a time when a growing percentage of voters said that was their top concern heading into the election. More voters said they are "more reassured" by how Sen. Obama was responding to the financial crisis than by Sen. McCain.

Sens. Obama and Biden have a six-point lead, with 49% of registered voters saying they would vote for them, compared with 43% for Sen. McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. That is up from a two-point advantage in the previous Journal poll, two weeks ago, and parallels other recent national polls. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

"McCain has absorbed a very tough one-two punch -- the financial crisis, then the debates," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. "These two things have clearly led to a momentum shift in this campaign where Obama has started to slowly stretch his lead."

Cautionary notes remain for Sen. Obama. The poll suggests that the first African-American to win a major-party nomination could be vulnerable to race-based attacks tying him to unpopular black figures such as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, his former pastor, and Al Sharpton, an outspoken and controversial figure.

Thirty-five percent of all voters -- and 40% of white voters -- said those connections bother them. This is absent any candidate or party pressing hard on those themes, which Republicans have hinted they may start to raise more aggressively in the campaign's closing days.

A focus group conducted last week in St. Louis by Mr. Hart and sponsored by the Annenberg Public Policy Center underscored the point. Several participants said they knew people who wouldn't support Sen. Obama because he is black. "There's a whole lot more racism than we know, but they just keep quiet," said Bridget Cromer, 56 years old, a Democrat from Chesterfield, Mo. That sentiment was shared by nine of 12 voters on the panel.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122332442918808789.html

Link to full poll results

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NBCPoll_100608.pdf

Going negative may work for the GOP - it is like teams blitzing the Steelers to get Ben - until the Dems show they know how to defeat that tactic the GOP will keep running that play, as evidenced by today's speeches

Preacher
10-06-2008, 10:37 PM
but on this board polls dont matter. :hunch:

:coffee:

stlrtruck
10-07-2008, 07:36 AM
but on this board polls dont matter. :hunch:

Last time I checked the Steelers Fever Poll had McCain ahead of Obama.

I guess polls are like stats, you make them say whatever you want.

X-Terminator
10-07-2008, 07:37 AM
but on this board polls dont matter. :hunch:

They don't. The only polls that matter are the ones that are open on Election Day. Polls done by news entities have been wrong too many times for them to be trusted, not to mention the fact that they can be manipulated to get the results they want.

HometownGal
10-07-2008, 09:39 AM
but on this board polls dont matter. :hunch:

Go ahead - take your little veiled shots, Tony - frankly my dear hipcheese, I don't give a damn! :chuckle:

What I posted a week or so ago about polls is 100% accurate and I stand by it.

Godfather
10-07-2008, 10:05 AM
Four points down is not a bad place to be for J-Mac. Being that close after the damage W has done to the Republican brand name is impressive. Plus that should translate into a tie on Election Day. Some of Obama's voters are really McCainiacs or undecided but don't want the pollster to think they're racist. And some people who think they're for Obama will get cold feet in the voting booth, when it comes time to trust the Oval Office to someone who's never run anything except a campaign.

Vis
10-07-2008, 10:27 AM
There's a lot of wishful thinking here. Every headline hurts McCain.

Vis
10-07-2008, 10:44 AM
Independent Voters Move Toward Obama
New Poll Indicates That Democrat Ticket Is Benefiting From Financial Crisis

By LAURA MECKLER

Independent voters are starting to swing behind Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who continue to benefit from economic turmoil and the public response to their debate performances, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The survey, conducted over the weekend, was full of good news for the Democratic presidential ticket. Sen. Obama increased his advantage over Republican rival John McCain when voters were asked which candidate they prefer to handle economic issues. At the same time, a growing percentage of voters said the economy is their top concern heading into the election.

Voters were much more likely to say they felt good about Sen. Obama's handling of the current economic crisis than they were to say the same of Sen. McCain. About one in three voters said they were "more reassured" by Sen. Obama versus just 25% who said that about Sen. McCain. Even worse, 38% of poll participants reported being "less reassured" by Sen. McCain's approach.

Sens. Obama and Biden have a six-point lead, with 49% of registered voters saying they would vote for them, compared with 43% for Sen. McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. That is up from a two-point advantage in the previous Journal poll, two weeks ago, and parallels other recent national polls. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

"McCain has absorbed a very tough one-two punch -- the financial crisis, then the debates," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. "These two things have clearly led to a momentum shift in this campaign where Obama has started to slowly stretch his lead."

Independent voters are among the most important voting blocs because many of them would consider voting for either candidate. In the Journal/NBC poll two weeks ago, independents favored Sen. McCain by 13 points. The new survey finds Sen. Obama leading by four points.

Still, with a month to go, the topsy-turvy presidential campaign could shift again. While voters said by a 50%-to-29% margin that they thought Sens. Obama and Biden did "a better job in the debates," two presidential debates remain. Starting with the town-hall session Tuesday evening in Nashville, Tenn., Sen. McCain has new opportunities to make a stronger impression -- and Sen. Obama has a fresh chance to make a mistake.

Cautionary notes remain for Sen. Obama. The poll suggests that the first African-American to win a major-party nomination could be vulnerable to race-based attacks tying him to unpopular black figures such as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, his former pastor, and Al Sharpton, an outspoken and controversial figure.

Thirty-five percent of all voters -- and 40% of white voters -- said those connections bother them. This is absent any candidate or party pressing hard on those themes, which Republicans have hinted they may start to raise more aggressively in the campaign's closing days.

A focus group conducted last week in St. Louis by Mr. Hart and sponsored by the Annenberg Public Policy Center underscored the point. Several participants said they knew people who wouldn't support Sen. Obama because he is black. "There's a whole lot more racism than we know, but they just keep quiet," said Bridget Cromer, 56 years old, a Democrat from Chesterfield, Mo. That sentiment was shared by nine of 12 voters on the panel.

The poll, taken just after Congress passed the financial rescue package Friday, showed that voters were divided about the bailout. While grass-roots anger helped lead to the bill's defeat in the House earlier in the week, the survey, taken after a week of slumping financial markets, showed that voters narrowly supported the package: 40% said they approved; 38% disapproved. A separate question showed more acceptance of the deal: 54% said that while the bill "was not the best approach," it was "necessary." Eleven percent said the bill was "the right approach" outright, and 29% said the "problem should have been left to the private sector."

Congress's handling of the package seems to have damaged its already tarnished standing. Voters registered record-low approval numbers for Congress and showed vast disapproval for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.).

The biggest political loser from the crisis may be Sen. McCain. Voters who said it personally affected them favored Sen. Obama by 15 percentage points.

Sen. Obama improved his standing with voters across the board. Men, for instance, typically favor Republicans, and sided with President George W. Bush by 11 percentage points in 2004. In the Journal poll two weeks ago, Sen. McCain led among male voters by five points. In this poll, the two candidates were tied among men.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122332442918808789.html#printMode

HometownGal
10-07-2008, 10:46 AM
There's a lot of wishful thinking here. Every headline hurts McCain.

Seems like there are a couple of blind sheeple here too. :wink02:

The gap is closing and one by one, Americans are seeing Obama for what he truly is - a two-bit do nothing racist politician who talks the talk but has no definitive solutions on how to walk the walk. I love where McCain is now. :thumbsup:

tony hipchest
10-07-2008, 10:56 AM
The gap is closing :what gap? i thought there was no gap. :noidea:

speaking of racist- didnt mccain vote against martin luther king jr.'s national holiday? doesnt he support the confederate flag being flown in state courthouses?

GBMelBlount
10-07-2008, 11:00 AM
Americans are seeing Obama for what he truly is - a two-bit do nothing racist politician who talks the talk but has no definitive solutions on how to walk the walk. I love where McCain is now. :thumbsup:


Actually, he does have solutions. BIG solutions involving more government and hundreds of billions of dollars of new taxes. He says our economy is in ruins yet his solution is to tax the hell out of those who create new jobs and businesses. Can't say I've seen many real world examples of countries taxing themselves out of recession.....Again, big government causes our problems and many of the ignorant masses blame freedom and capitalism. THAT is exactly why socialism and communism is thriving despite being the cause of most problems.

cubanstogie
10-07-2008, 11:04 AM
I was told by my neighbor yesterday, that if Obama wins he and his small business will go out of business. Now , I don't know if he was exaggerating or didn't have the facts straight. I asked him why ,thinking it was about taxes, he stated he would have to provide all employees with health insurance. If that is true which I am not saying it is, that is BS. Why does the government have the right to tell a small business they have to provide it. These are issues I want to know about before voting, maybe we will get some concrete answers tonight. I doubt it with politicians.

MACH1
10-07-2008, 11:05 AM
Actually, he does have solutions. BIG solutions involving more government and hundreds of billions of dollars of new taxes. He says our economy is in ruins yet his solution is to tax the hell out of those who create new jobs and businesses. Can't say I've seen many real world examples of countries taxing themselves out of recession.....Again, big government causes our problems and many of the ignorant masses blame freedom and capitalism. THAT is exactly why socialism and communism is thriving despite being the cause of most problems.

Oh but wait, he wants to lower taxes too. :rolleyes:

Lower taxes and spend more. Why doesn't that sound right. :doh:

MACH1
10-07-2008, 11:08 AM
I was told by my neighbor yesterday, that if Obama wins he and his small business will go out of business. Now , I don't know if he was exaggerating or didn't have the facts straight. I asked him why ,thinking it was about taxes, he stated he would have to provide all employees with health insurance. If that is true which I am not saying it is, that is BS. Why does the government have the right to tell a small business they have to provide it. These are issues I want to know about before voting, maybe we will get some concrete answers tonight. I doubt it with politicians.

It is true. Every employer would have to pay into a fund for health care. Besides obama's raising the business taxes through the roof. And that my friends is how you save the economy by putting small business's out of business.

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 11:45 AM
Didn't almost all the polls, including even the EXIT polls have Kerry killing Bush in '04?

Vis
10-07-2008, 12:18 PM
Didn't almost all the polls, including even the EXIT polls have Kerry killing Bush in '04?


It was a dead heat in the polls at the beginning of Oct.

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 12:36 PM
Exit polls had Kerry 51, Bush 48 in '04.

Vis
10-07-2008, 12:41 PM
Exit polls had Kerry 51, Bush 48 in '04.

That was based on what the votes were, not what the altered voting machines recorded.

:frustrate

But look at the states.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 12:50 PM
Oh, so it's a CONSPIRACY...I see, I see...Big Foot and the aliens conspired with Bush and a still-alive-and-living-in-Florida Elvis to alter the outcome of the race.

YIKES!!!!!

tony hipchest
10-07-2008, 12:51 PM
Exit polls had Kerry 51, Bush 48 in '04.that hardly shows a killing especially with a +/- 2% margin of error.

Leftoverhard
10-07-2008, 12:52 PM
The gap is closing and one by one, Americans are seeing Obama for what he truly is - a two-bit do nothing racist politician who talks the talk but has no definitive solutions on how to walk the walk. I love where McCain is now. :thumbsup:

HTG - You're gonna have to prove this racist charge you keep making. Because the way I see it is plain old spin. (see the thread about this topic going on right now)
If you want to call Rev. Wright racist, you're free to do so but "guilt by association" doesn't work. My grandpa is racist. I'm not. That's a very common scenario. If you really wanted to link people together, you could link McCain to the wonderful Gov. Mechum - couldn't you?
Did you listen to Obama's speech after that whole debacle? Best speech on racism ever. Have you ever met a racist? Not very good at defending themselves are they? And when the more intelligent racists come around, they don't go defending themselves, they apologize (see John McCain).
This junk is one of the only weapon the GOP has IMHO and it's quite a pea-shooter and just ends up making the accusers look desperate.

If you want to talk about racists, let's start with this guy, Fernando C. de Baca, chairman of Bernalillo County Republicans in New Mexico. Did you hear about this?
He resigned after spewing some racist vile in an interview with the BBC.
And that's just in my State.
Funny, in the GOP you can throw a rock and hit one of these guys but it's a rare occurence to find a liberal racist. (you know, like Obama, who is about as far away from being a racist as you get)

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 12:54 PM
Point is, polls are inaccurate...and they also cannot account for that "Hell, I just can't vote for a Black man" factor that many whites will battle with when behind the curtain.

Which, while not okay, cancels out the fact that if Obama was white he'd be sorely lacking in credentials necessary to secure the candidacy.

So it's a wash.

But, I mean, if you want to hang your hat on polls, have fun and go for it...I'm not gonna stop ya:wave:

Vis
10-07-2008, 12:55 PM
Oh, so it's a CONSPIRACY...I see, I see...Big Foot and the aliens conspired with Bush and a still-alive-and-living-in-Florida Elvis to alter the outcome of the race.

YIKES!!!!!

Well, we'll find out for sure if Cheney wins as a write-in this year.

Vis
10-07-2008, 12:56 PM
Which, while not okay, cancels out the fact that if Obama was white he'd be sorely lacking in credentials necessary to secure the candidacy.

:

He could then get a sex change and drop his "g"s

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 12:57 PM
Back to Palin vs. Obama AGAIN?

(snooooooore)

Vis
10-07-2008, 01:01 PM
Back to Palin vs. Obama AGAIN?

(snooooooore)

Just trying to keep up on the ridiculous meter.

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 01:07 PM
Just trying to keep up on the ridiculous meter.
Here is what I said...please point out what was ridiculous about it:

A) Polls are inaccurate
B) Kerry beat Bush in the 04 exit polls
C) Obama's race is what secured him the candidacy

The last is a matter of opinion, of course, but it's hardly a ridiculous one.

Atlanta Dan
10-07-2008, 01:08 PM
Seems like there are a couple of blind sheeple here too. :wink02:

The gap is closing and one by one, Americans are seeing Obama for what he truly is - a two-bit do nothing racist politician who talks the talk but has no definitive solutions on how to walk the walk. I love where McCain is now. :thumbsup:

What "closing"?

In addition to the WSJ poll I cited, there is this:

Obama Leading In Ohio, Poll Finds
Edge Is 6 Points In a State Looming Large for McCain

Aided by the faltering economy, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has the upper hand in the race for Ohio, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, putting Republican John McCain at a disadvantage in a state considered vital to his chances of winning the White House in November.

Overall, among likely voters in the new poll, 51 percent said they would support Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), if the election were held today, while 45 percent said they would back McCain and his vice presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602373.html?hpid=topnews

and this:

Poll: Obama Gains in States That Went for Bush

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week's vice-presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847805,00.html?cnn=yes

and this:

Obama widens lead in national poll

A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.

That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September

Monday evening's CNN national Poll of Polls -- incorporating our new CNN survey, as well as new tracking numbers from Gallup and Hotline taken October 3-5 -- shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points -- at 49 to 43 percent.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

Either you have access to some crucial yard sign polling data or perhaps you need a flashlight or miner's helmet to read the latest results because it is so dark in The Bunker.:chuckle:

Of course, the polls are obviously inaccurate, since this could not possibly be true - could it?:sofunny:

President Bush may be part of the reason why Obama's making gains. Only 24 percent of those polled approve of Bush's job as president, an all-time low for a CNN survey.

"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1974, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

HTG - I also do not trust the polls and admire your cheerleading in light of the approach of the End Of Days for the McCain-Palin campaign.

But seriously - "the gap is closing?":laughing:

Vis
10-07-2008, 01:08 PM
Here is what I said...please point out what was ridiculous about it:

A) Polls are inaccurate
B) Kerry beat Bush in the 04 exit polls
C) Obama's race is what secured him the candidacy

The last is a matter of opinion, of course, but it's hardly a ridiculous one.

And the thought that Palin is on the ticket as a token female is more ridiculous or less?

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 01:15 PM
I just don't understand the fascination with leveling the field between Palin and Obama. You DO understand that the veep is < then Pres, right? And you understand that they are chosen in vastly different ways, right? And there are a very few people involved in the selection of the veep, right?

I mean, sorry, but I have to ask...you (and others) continue to equate Palin and Obama. It's just not right. If Palin was qualified to run for President, she'd have been nominated to do so. She was not. She was selected as the veep candidate. Again, Veep <<< Pres.

Atlanta Dan
10-07-2008, 01:37 PM
I just don't understand the fascination with leveling the field between Palin and Obama. You DO understand that the veep is < then Pres, right? And you understand that they are chosen in vastly different ways, right? And there are a very few people involved in the selection of the veep, right?

I mean, sorry, but I have to ask...you (and others) continue to equate Palin and Obama. It's just not right. If Palin was qualified to run for President, she'd have been nominated to do so. She was not. She was selected as the veep candidate. Again, Veep <<< Pres.

Rev - Charles Krauthammer (no supporter of Obama) said it better than I obviously can; it undermined the strength of an issue with which that McCain appeared to be having some success in August. If limited experience supposedly is a dealbreaker in a President how can it be irrelevant for someone who has a primary constitutional role of being the designated successor to the Chief Executive?

Obama was sagging because of missteps that reflected the fundamental weakness of his candidacy. Which suggested McCain's strategy: Make this a referendum on Obama, surely the least experienced, least qualified, least prepared presidential nominee in living memory.

Palin fatally undermines this entire line of attack. This is through no fault of her own. It is simply a function of her rookie status. The vice president's only constitutional duty of any significance is to become president at a moment's notice. Palin is not ready. Nor is Obama. But with Palin, the case against Obama evaporates.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/04/AR2008090402845.html

There were solid reasons from a political standpoint to pick Palin (energize the base/make a gender based play for bitter Hillary supporters) but it was not an unmixed blessing for McCain and he cannot run away from her shortcomings as a candidiate.

Vis
10-07-2008, 02:09 PM
Not to mention she's a young earther

X-Terminator
10-07-2008, 02:39 PM
What "closing"?

In addition to the WSJ poll I cited, there is this:

Obama Leading In Ohio, Poll Finds
Edge Is 6 Points In a State Looming Large for McCain

Aided by the faltering economy, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has the upper hand in the race for Ohio, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, putting Republican John McCain at a disadvantage in a state considered vital to his chances of winning the White House in November.

Overall, among likely voters in the new poll, 51 percent said they would support Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), if the election were held today, while 45 percent said they would back McCain and his vice presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602373.html?hpid=topnews

and this:

Poll: Obama Gains in States That Went for Bush

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week's vice-presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847805,00.html?cnn=yes

and this:

Obama widens lead in national poll

A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.

That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September

Monday evening's CNN national Poll of Polls -- incorporating our new CNN survey, as well as new tracking numbers from Gallup and Hotline taken October 3-5 -- shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points -- at 49 to 43 percent.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

Either you have access to some crucial yard sign polling data or perhaps you need a flashlight or miner's helmet to read the latest results because it is so dark in The Bunker.:chuckle:

Of course, the polls are obviously inaccurate, since this could not possibly be true - could it?:sofunny:

President Bush may be part of the reason why Obama's making gains. Only 24 percent of those polled approve of Bush's job as president, an all-time low for a CNN survey.

"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1974, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

HTG - I also do not trust the polls and admire your cheerleading in light of the approach of the End Of Days for the McCain-Palin campaign.

But seriously - "the gap is closing?":laughing:

And none of those polls mean a damn thing until the final vote is cast on November 4.

As a prime example as to how meaningless polls are, if HTG will permit me to use this, she was once on the campaign committee of current PA Lt. Governor Katherine Baker-Knoll - a Democrat - back when she ran for State Treasurer. Her opponent was ahead of her by more than 20 points the night before the election, and Knoll was ready to quit. HTG and others on her committee convinced her to stick out the election, and Knoll ended up trouncing her opponent by more than 20 points. THAT is why these little polls don't mean a thing. So you and Tony can keep laughing at and mocking her, but she knows of what she speaks, because she's seen it first-hand.

This race ain't over for J-Mac, and no Obama supporter should be pounding their chests and declaring victory just because the Wall Street Journal/NBC has him ahead.

tony hipchest
10-07-2008, 02:48 PM
1st of all this thread is about the "presidential race tightens".

and im not mocking HTG. just find it odd how the polls dont matter when they show obama with a lead, yet the same insignificant polls are used to support the stance that "the gap is closing". i asked for clarification.

in the realm of debate isnt that like wanting your cake and to eat it too? kinda seems like an unfair double standard to me. :noidea:

revefsreleets
10-07-2008, 05:18 PM
I appreciate what Krauth had to say...in fact, to some extent I agree. Palin's addition to the ticket rubs me wrong in many ways.

But it fails to address the FACT that the Democratic Presidential candidate is not, and should not be, running a candidacy against a VP nominee for the opposition.

The most telling thing about Krauth's take is this:
Palin is not ready. Nor is Obama

Put in football terms, this is like saying (and this is the lefts argument, which Krauth seems to be espousing in this instance) that a team CANNOT draft a QB of the future because the starting QB could go down at any time which would leave an inexperienced rook to fill the starters shoes, that a team MUST ONLY find a back-up from the pool of experienced free agents.

Which is, of course, ridiculous.

HometownGal
10-07-2008, 07:05 PM
HTG - You're gonna have to prove this racist charge you keep making. Because the way I see it is plain old spin. (see the thread about this topic going on right now)
If you want to call Rev. Wright racist, you're free to do so but "guilt by association" doesn't work. My grandpa is racist. I'm not. That's a very common scenario. If you really wanted to link people together, you could link McCain to the wonderful Gov. Mechum - couldn't you?
Did you listen to Obama's speech after that whole debacle? Best speech on racism ever. Have you ever met a racist? Not very good at defending themselves are they? And when the more intelligent racists come around, they don't go defending themselves, they apologize (see John McCain).
This junk is one of the only weapon the GOP has IMHO and it's quite a pea-shooter and just ends up making the accusers look desperate.

If you want to talk about racists, let's start with this guy, Fernando C. de Baca, chairman of Bernalillo County Republicans in New Mexico. Did you hear about this?
He resigned after spewing some racist vile in an interview with the BBC.
And that's just in my State.
Funny, in the GOP you can throw a rock and hit one of these guys but it's a rare occurence to find a liberal racist. (you know, like Obama, who is about as far away from being a racist as you get)

Talk about spinning like a top! :toofunny:

Jeremiah Wright is a racist and has never denied being a racist. Obama not only attended his worship hall of racism for over 22 years, he proclaimed Wright as his "mentor". 1+1=2. End of discussion.

cubanstogie
10-07-2008, 07:20 PM
Here is what I said...please point out what was ridiculous about it:

A) Polls are inaccurate
B) Kerry beat Bush in the 04 exit polls
C) Obama's race is what secured him the candidacy

The last is a matter of opinion, of course, but it's hardly a ridiculous one.

I don't think anyone can dispute the fact if Hussein were white he would have lost to Hillary. It would have been like Harry Reid running. The black vote won it for him. Dems have the token black guy, republicans have the token female.

TheWarDen86
10-07-2008, 07:21 PM
VERY IMPORTANT!!!!

They released this years election schedule: Republicans are to vote on Tuesday November 4th. Democrats vote on Wednesday, November 5th. Mark it down. Get out there and vote! ...and don't screw it up Democrats!!!
It's Time For CHANGE!!!
:laughing:

SteelCityMan786
10-07-2008, 07:58 PM
They don't. The only polls that matter are the ones that are open on Election Day. Polls done by news entities have been wrong too many times for them to be trusted, not to mention the fact that they can be manipulated to get the results they want.

Besides, who says EVERY VOTER in those polls voted in them??? Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but lost the election because of the Electoral Vote count.

Hawk Believer
10-08-2008, 12:10 AM
After looking at a lot of different electoral college projection sites, I personally think that this one is the best. It is really transparent in its methodology. I am not aware of any strong partisan bias. They are pretty wonky on the statistics but I find it pretty interesting. The history tab is pretty interesting too...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

steelwall
10-08-2008, 05:24 AM
Ok Obama wins- congress= he can do limited things, if anything

Ok Mcain wins - congress= he can do limited things, if anything.

Catch my drift??? Congress will be the downfall of this nation. Congress needs a complete overhaul.....

stlrtruck
10-08-2008, 07:46 AM
Catch my drift??? Congress will be the downfall of this nation. Congress needs a complete overhaul.....

I don't think more truthful words have been spoken over the course of the last few months in regards to this presidential race than what you just said!!

Godfather
10-08-2008, 08:35 AM
I don't think anyone can dispute the fact if Hussein were white he would have lost to Hillary. It would have been like Harry Reid running. The black vote won it for him. Dems have the token black guy, republicans have the token female.

Um, no. Harry Reid has the charisma of an earthworm.

There was a very large Anybody But Clinton vote out there. The antiwar left didn't want her and Democrats in the Rockies didn't want her. Obama "won" Iowa and established himself as the alternative to Hillary. Then he played the delegate game well in caucus states, built up momentum in contests in Idaho and Wyoming and Colorado (where the Clintons are very unpopular). Then he started attracting bandwagoners. All of that could have happened if he were white.

And anyone who thinks Palin is a token needs to go to Youtube and watch the announcement rally. She's a younger version of J-Mac. Her reform credentials and personal story bring a lot to the table that no other running mate could have.

Leftoverhard
10-08-2008, 09:26 AM
VERY IMPORTANT!!!!

They released this years election schedule: Republicans are to vote on Tuesday November 4th. Democrats vote on Wednesday, November 5th. Mark it down. Get out there and vote! ...and don't screw it up Democrats!!!
It's Time For CHANGE!!!
:laughing:

Desperate. I like it.