View Full Version : Interesting Poll Results...

10-22-2008, 05:49 PM
Not because it's a poll, which i consider fairly suspect and dubious, but some of the bumps are telling and contradictory to what some people representing both sides of the aisle were thinking out loud on here.


Neck-and-neck results are a departure from many recent national polls

WASHINGTON - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as Republican-leaning voters drifted home to their party.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the United States through its sudden economic crisis.
The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before the Nov. 4 election.
The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Differing survey results
Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.
"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain."
The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama.
A post-debates bump for McCain?
McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.

During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.
"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody," Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company where he works.

On Wednesday, McCain's campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features that Obama quote, and shows different people saying: "I'm Joe the plumber." A man asks: "Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?"
Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up support among white married people and non-college educated whites, the poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black voters still overwhelmingly support Obama.

The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy and the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their taxes will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third who say McCain would raise their taxes.
Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.
Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.
Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white college graduates, no change from earlier.
Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.
Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.
Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.

McCain has cut into Obama's advantage on the questions of whom voters trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous survey.
Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44 percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from now if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.

10-22-2008, 06:00 PM
I have noticed the polls all over the place...

A few I contribute to partisanship.. but not most.

I think, regardless of what happens on election night... there will be a lot of shock from both sides.

this is just weird enough to see a super-majority in the house and senate... with a McCain presidency.. or a Obama-presidency... and the house and senate start swinging to the GOP...

Anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see Abraham Lincoln or Donald Duck elected in this environment.

10-22-2008, 09:16 PM
Anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see....Donald Duck elected in this environment.

Make it Howard the Duck and I'm down with it.



10-24-2008, 09:07 AM

10-24-2008, 12:13 PM
I think you missed the point completely...this is not about the resukts themselves...anybody can pull up any poll they like that shows whatever they want shown (which speaks volumes to the overall unreliability of the things).

I was pointing out that there were discrepencies in all these polls that cut directly against what pundits on both sides of the aisle have been spouting off lately...

10-24-2008, 02:20 PM
I think you missed the point completely...this is not about the resukts themselves...anybody can pull up any poll they like that shows whatever they want shown (which speaks volumes to the overall unreliability of the things).

I was pointing out that there were discrepencies in all these polls that cut directly against what pundits on both sides of the aisle have been spouting off lately...

Very true.

I think the best indications are where the campaigns are fighting geographically and where they aren't