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mesaSteeler
01-28-2009, 09:41 PM
Computer simulation projects a Steelers win 20-14
By Larry Weisman, USA TODAY
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2009-01-27-super-bowl-computer-projection_N.htm

TAMPA The Pittsburgh Steelers build a 13-0 halftime lead and hold on to defeat the Arizona Cardinals 20-14 in Super Bowl XLIII.

That's the way a computer simulation of the NFL's title game shapes up. SportSims.net, an interactive games site, ran the program 100,000 times to forecast the outcome of Sunday's matchup. The Steelers won 52.5% of them, the Cardinals won 47.5%.

In the game deemed a representative sample, Willie Parker rushes for 119 yards and a touchdown and the Steelers hang on despite a huge showing by Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who catches seven passes for 136 yards, including a 58-yard touchdown midway through the final quarter.

The key to the game, says software designer Dave Holt, is Steelers receiver Hines Ward.

He catches four passes for 80 yards and allows Pittsburgh balance (128 rushing yards, 213 passing). Ward suffered a knee injury in the AFC Championship Game.

"If Hines Ward is healthy, the Steelers win," Holt says. "If not, the Cardinals are Super Bowl champions."

Other stats: Kurt Warner passes for 292 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception; Ben Roethlisberger throws for 213, a touchdown and an interception; Pittsburgh holds Arizona to 59 rushing yards.

In games won by the Cardinals, the score skews higher. They averaged 28.3 points to Pittsburgh's 19.6. In Steelers victories, the Steelers scored 21.6 points and held Arizona to 13.4.

Holt is 15-6 projecting the Super Bowl winner for USA TODAY.

Statik
01-28-2009, 11:49 PM
ESPN AccuScore projection has the steelers with a 68% chance of winning....

and their final score projection is 27-21

(AccuScore has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game for ESPN.com, each simulated one play at a time and minimum of 10,000 times.)

IAWarnerFan
01-28-2009, 11:51 PM
The Cardinals will get more than 14! :flap:

wardislord
01-28-2009, 11:52 PM
ESPN AccuScore projection has the steelers with a 68% chance of winning....

and their final score projection is 27-21

(AccuScore has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game for ESPN.com, each simulated one play at a time and minimum of 10,000 times.)

oooo i picked 28-21 as the final score of the superbowl in my pool......i hope for my sake (and the steelers) that this turns out to be accurate!

IAWarnerFan
01-28-2009, 11:53 PM
My prediction:
Cardinals 30
Steelers 24

SunshineMan21
01-29-2009, 12:36 AM
I'm pretty sure 20-14 isn't going to be the score of this one . . . especially considering we just beat Baltimore 23-14, and Arizona has a much worse D and much better O than the Ravens.

KeiselPower99
01-29-2009, 12:41 AM
The Cardinals will get more than 14! :flap:

And Im sure the Patriots felt that way last year.

IAWarnerFan
01-29-2009, 12:43 AM
And Im sure the Patriots felt that way last year.

We are more like the Giants. You are more like the Patriots. :wink02:

section514
01-29-2009, 12:53 AM
We are more like the Giants. You are more like the Patriots. :wink02:

watch yo mouth with that comparison :banging:

SC Steeler Steve
01-29-2009, 12:57 AM
I really think the cards are gonna be brought back down to reallity. I think the Steelers will take control early and never look back. Not neccessarily a blowout just have obvious control the whole game. I think Warner is a great QB, and I think there is definitly an argument for Hall Of Fame. But I also think he will be the exposed as the QB he entered the palyoffs as. The Guy that wasnt even suppose to get passed the Falcons.

I dont think this was meant as a prediction thread but mine is Steelers 31-17. JMHO.

IAWarnerFan
01-29-2009, 01:25 AM
watch yo mouth with that comparison :banging:
That makes a bit more sense than the Patriots comparison.
I really think the cards are gonna be brought back down to reallity. I think the Steelers will take control early and never look back. Not neccessarily a blowout just have obvious control the whole game. I think Warner is a great QB, and I think there is definitly an argument for Hall Of Fame. But I also think he will be the exposed as the QB he entered the palyoffs as. The Guy that wasnt even suppose to get passed the Falcons.

I dont think this was meant as a prediction thread but mine is Steelers 31-17. JMHO.
Why weren't the Cardinals suppose to get past the Falcons? The Cardinals had home field and went up against a rookie QB. Now the Panthers I'll give you, but it was Delhomme's birthday.

Steelers & I
01-29-2009, 01:34 AM
My prediction:
Cardinals 30
Steelers 24


That's not a prediction, not a realistic one anyhow. 30 to 24, yeah right, only in your dreams.

I see the Steelers scoring in the 35 point range and the Cardinals, after a garbage time touchdown, being in the 21 point range. Now that my friend is a realistic prediction. :drink:

IAWarnerFan
01-29-2009, 01:38 AM
That's not a prediction, not a realistic one anyhow. 30 to 24, yeah right, only in your dreams.

I see the Steelers scoring in the 35 point range and the Cardinals, after a garbage time touchdown, being in the 21 point range. Now that my friend is a realistic prediction. :drink:

We've seen better offense than yours. If the Cardinals revert back to the way they ended the season I might agree, but I don't expect them to. I expect them to come out and play the way they have the last few weeks. :noidea:

hindes204
01-29-2009, 01:40 AM
That makes a bit more sense than the Patriots comparison.

Why weren't the Cardinals suppose to get past the Falcons? The Cardinals had home field and went up against a rookie QB. Now the Panthers I'll give you, but it was Delhomme's birthday.

im gonna venture a guess and say it was probably games like the A$$ woopin you guys got handed to you by the patriots towards the end of the season 47-7 and by minnesota at home 35-14

IAWarnerFan
01-29-2009, 01:44 AM
im gonna venture a guess and say it was probably games like the A$$ woopin you guys got handed to you by the patriots towards the end of the season 47-7 and by minnesota at home 35-14

Those games didn't really mean much in the long run did they? :noidea:

The Cardinals still ended up having two home playoff games, but the Eagles did help out with that.

SteelersinCA
01-29-2009, 02:23 AM
I know it's just ESPN, but I absolutely love how we are not picked to win by Sportsnation and even more people are rooting for the Cardinals.

Go Steelers!

Steelers & I
01-29-2009, 02:23 AM
We've seen better offense than yours. If the Cardinals revert back to the way they ended the season I might agree, but I don't expect them to. I expect them to come out and play the way they have the last few weeks. :noidea:

A Cardinal is a Cardinal, no matter how you want to dice it. The Cardinals playoff success may have hinged on what their opponents failed to do rather than what the Cardinals themselves actually did.

I expected them to defeat Atlanta, the only big suprise versus the Carolina Panthers was the margin of victory, Carolina has always impressed me as being "choke artists". Philadelphia? In my opinion the Eagles gave the game away, no big suprise I suppose, Philly, as well as Pittsburgh, are known for blowing more than their fair share of conference championship games.

My problem with your score prediction is as follows. You predicted a Cardinals victory by a score of 30 to 24. Now that tells me that the Cardinals will be either leading the majority of the game, or the game will be close throughout. My beef with that is I don't see ANY way that the Steelers defense will give up 30 points in a tight game. If that game is close throughout, I don't see the Steelers giving up more than 13 or 14 points. The Steelers defense would ABSOLUTELY have to lay an egg if the Cardinals were to score 30 points against them.

If the game is close, or more like, WHILE the game is close, the Steelers defense will play lights out ball. There's no way that your Cardinals score 30 on us.

hindes204
01-29-2009, 02:32 AM
A Cardinal is a Cardinal, no matter how you want to dice it. The Cardinals playoff success may have hinged on what their opponents failed to do rather than what the Cardinals themselves actually did.

I expected them to defeat Atlanta, the only big suprise versus the Carolina Panthers was the margin of victory, Carolina has always impressed me as being "choke artists". Philadelphia? In my opinion the Eagles gave the game away, no big suprise I suppose, Philly, as well as Pittsburgh, are known for blowing more than their fair share of conference championship games.

My problem with your score prediction is as follows. You predicted a Cardinals victory by a score of 30 to 24. Now that tells me that the Cardinals will be either leading the majority of the game, or the game will be close throughout. My beef with that is I don't see ANY way that the Steelers defense will give up 30 points in a tight game. If that game is close throughout, I don't see the Steelers giving up more than 13 or 14 points. The Steelers defense would ABSOLUTELY have to lay an egg if the Cardinals were to score 30 points against them.

If the game is close, or more like, WHILE the game is close, the Steelers defense will play lights out ball. There's no way that your Cardinals score 30 on us.




Agreed....30 points....hes out of his mind if he thinks the cardinals will light up the scoreboard on the steelers D....no way in hell, not in this big of a game

IAWarnerFan
01-29-2009, 02:34 AM
A Cardinal is a Cardinal, no matter how you want to dice it. The Cardinals playoff success may have hinged on what their opponents failed to do rather than what the Cardinals themselves actually did.

I expected them to defeat Atlanta, the only big suprise versus the Carolina Panthers was the margin of victory, Carolina has always impressed me as being "choke artists". Philadelphia? In my opinion the Eagles gave the game away, no big suprise I suppose, Philly, as well as Pittsburgh, are known for blowing more than their fair share of conference championship games.

My problem with your score prediction is as follows. You predicted a Cardinals victory by a score of 30 to 24. Now that tells me that the Cardinals will be either leading the majority of the game, or the game will be close throughout. My beef with that is I don't see ANY way that the Steelers defense will give up 30 points in a tight game. If that game is close throughout, I don't see the Steelers giving up more than 13 or 14 points. The Steelers defense would ABSOLUTELY have to lay an egg if the Cardinals were to score 30 points against them.

If the game is close, or more like, WHILE the game is close, the Steelers defense will play lights out ball. There's no way that your Cardinals score 30 on us.

Agree to a point. Offensively, I see this game going one of two ways:

The Pittsburgh defense gets to Kurt Warner disrupting his timing causing fumbles, Ints, and a HUGE Steelers blowout.
The Cardinals O-LIne actually continuing to do a pretty good job of pass blocking. Giving Kurt Warner time to find the best matchups and marching down field for scores.

Or a combo of the two. :noidea:

IAWarnerFan
01-29-2009, 02:37 AM
Agreed....30 points....hes out of his mind if he thinks the cardinals will light up the scoreboard on the steelers D....no way in hell, not in this big of a game

I disagree, but we'll find out come Sunday.

CPanther95
01-29-2009, 09:22 AM
Steelers 41-23

Holt is 15-6 predicting the SB for USA Today?

Guess what the record is for the Super Bowl favorites in the past 21 games............15-6.

fansince'76
01-29-2009, 09:26 AM
We've seen better offense than yours.

And we've seen far better defenses than yours. :coffee:

SteelMember
01-29-2009, 09:30 AM
The Cardinals will get more than 14! :flap:

Penalties? That won't be good for them. :flap:

Also, I don't think it's necessary to hyphenate 08-09. This isn't hockey. Be proud in either case...it may be all you have to hold on to. :chuckle:

CPanther95
01-29-2009, 09:37 AM
Steelers are 5-0 as favorites in the SB.

Cardinals will come back to reality after this game.

stlrtruck
01-29-2009, 10:26 AM
Computer simulations don't mean a thing.

The cardinals have some talented players and so do the Steelers. The computers do not take nor can they measure heart and determination.

And I'm not saying that cardinals players don't have heart or determination, I just think the Steelers players have it more.

But we'll see on Sunday when they lock horns.

I'd take the Steelers every time!!

SC Steeler Steve
01-29-2009, 10:53 AM
Why weren't the Cardinals suppose to get past the Falcons? The Cardinals had home field and went up against a rookie QB. Now the Panthers I'll give you, but it was Delhomme's birthday.
Because honestly I believe the Falcons were just better top to bottom COMING IN

We've seen better offense than yours. If the Cardinals revert back to the way they ended the season I might agree, but I don't expect them to. I expect them to come out and play the way they have the last few weeks. :noidea:
The bold is the big reason Warner wasnt suppose to get by the Falcons

im gonna venture a guess and say it was probably games like the A$$ woopin you guys got handed to you by the patriots towards the end of the season 47-7 and by minnesota at home 35-14
^^^^ And this just further solidifies the reasoning that Warner wasnt suppose to get by the falcons. ^^^^


Also the cards did play in probably the weakest division in the league this year. Now of course that doesnt mean any guaranteed loses, but it does explain the early season division clinch, and late season collapse against better teams. With all that said i am impressed with the way the cards have stood up to the challenge of the Postseason and I am happy for Cards fans to be in this position. I would prolly be cheering for the cards if they were playing anyone else in the SB, but reallity is, THE BUCK STOPS HERE.

stillers4me
01-29-2009, 11:27 AM
Originally Posted by IAWarnerFan View Post
We've seen better offense than yours.

And we've seen far better defenses than yours. :coffee:

And beat one 3 times this year. :drink:

Dino 6 Rings
01-29-2009, 12:18 PM
A Lady I work with had her son with her at work, and he was playing his PSP and played the Cards vs Steelers. They sent me a screen shot of the score. Cards 106, Steelers 0.

So like...whatever man...the game is Sunday and that's all the matters to me.

steelreserve
01-29-2009, 12:31 PM
That's all we're projected to win by? Something tells me the computer simulator put down a big bet and took the points.

CPanther95
01-29-2009, 12:54 PM
We've seen better offense than yours.

Yes you have. 9 times - and you went 2-7.

What's really sad is that the Steelers were ranked 22nd in offense. That means almost half your games in the regular season were against Bottom 10 ranked offenses.

Against Top 10 defenses? You guys were 1-5 (win coming in overtime) - with the playoffs - 2-5.

7SteelGal43
01-29-2009, 02:35 PM
we need to score like democrats vote....early and often

IAWarnerFan
01-29-2009, 04:24 PM
Yes you have. 9 times - and you went 2-7.

What's really sad is that the Steelers were ranked 22nd in offense. That means almost half your games in the regular season were against Bottom 10 ranked offenses.

Against Top 10 defenses? You guys were 1-5 (win coming in overtime) - with the playoffs - 2-5.

Again, the four games against Seahawks and Rams don't help. Again, this team has been playing a bit better, you'd have to admit that. :noidea:

SteelCurtain7
01-29-2009, 04:31 PM
The Cardinals will get more than 14! :flap:

And you know this how, since it hasn't been played yet? :blah:

SteelCurtain7
01-29-2009, 04:35 PM
We've seen better offense than yours. If the Cardinals revert back to the way they ended the season I might agree, but I don't expect them to. I expect them to come out and play the way they have the last few weeks. :noidea:

We've seen better defenses than yours. We beat the #2 defense thrice.

It's defense that wins championships, sonny. Don't forget it. :tt:

SteelCurtain7
01-29-2009, 04:37 PM
Those games didn't really mean much in the long run did they? :noidea:

The Cardinals still ended up having two home playoff games, but the Eagles did help out with that.

Sure they do. Way to play the delusional homer card (pun intended, I guess :rofl: ). These games are blueprints of sorts that your team can be owned, and be owned badly. :tt:

SteelCurtain7
01-29-2009, 04:40 PM
Yes you have. 9 times - and you went 2-7.

What's really sad is that the Steelers were ranked 22nd in offense. That means almost half your games in the regular season were against Bottom 10 ranked offenses.

Against Top 10 defenses? You guys were 1-5 (win coming in overtime) - with the playoffs - 2-5.

Looks like our Iowagean redbirds fan's stat got thoroughly crushed!!!!!!!!!! :tt:

tony hipchest
01-29-2009, 08:38 PM
The Cardinals will get more than 14! :flap:

lol. you sound like tom brady. :flap:

revefsreleets
01-30-2009, 11:49 AM
My brain is a computer (sort of, anyway), and I just ran my own simulation. It came up:

Steelers 31
Cards 10