SteelersMongol
02-23-2009, 10:56 PM
I wrote this last night. (Actually the day before. It's a long story that involves trains, planes, snow, and an incident in a parking garage with an Eskimo that I just don't have time to go into here.) In any event, after I wrote it, I noticed that my colleague Dan Drezner has written an FP article called "13 Unexpected Consequences of the Crash." What am I supposed to do, shoot myself?
No, we'll just pretend it was all planned and maybe the editors can link them together and have it look like a carefully conceived symphony of in-depth perspectives on what is going to happen to us all at the end of this economic death spiral.
And in that vein, just to help you with your planning, here are some people and things that won't survive the economic crisis:
1. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso
There are items on today's sushi menu that probably will stay fresh longer than he is in office. Nobody had much confidence in him to begin with. But with the Japanese economy dedicated to disproving the theory that things never get as bad as you fear, expect his departure and a parade of successors that will make Japanese voters yearn for the stability of say, post-war Italy. (What does the Japanese market downturn have in common with a bunch of super-models? No bottoms.)
2. Illinois Senator Roland Burris
Here's my bet: he is convicted of a crime long before Rod Blagojevich's pompadour is in the hands of a prison barber. I know this has nothing to do with the crisis, except perhaps for the fact that the American people are hungry for people to blame and punish -- for anything.
3. Chrysler
We already know that GM and Chrysler are putting a bunch of lousy brands out of their misery. (Although the Chinese will probably buy Hummer and make a fortune selling them as mobile homes given that they meet Chinese housing standards for a family of 12.) I think the last Pontiac fan died of old age during the Truman Administration. There are probably a few beauticians in Union, New Jersey who still think the PT Cruiser is anything other than the automotive equivalent of a mullet. But for the most part the makes consigned to the scrap heap the other day will not be missed. Neither will Chrysler once it is clear its management is doing too little -- it's too far gone. Congress is tired of bailing out the private equity fat cats that own much of it and everyone realizes that its plan for being saved by Fiat is like having someone throw a drowning man a cinder block. After them, other car brands will go. There are simply too many. The market has spoken. And no White House task force is going to be able to persuade consumers otherwise.
4. My 401-K
I hope you will all come visit me in the refrigerator box in which I plan to spend my sunset years. I'm thinking of some place nice, maybe under a bridge somewhere in Florida.
5. Retiring at Age 65
In a more serious vein, while I may be content to live in a refrigerator box by a canal in St. Pete wrestling alligators for scraps of food, other harder-working Americans are going to realize that they've got to keep working. Fortunately, this crisis coincides with the demographic realities of an aging society in which there are just too many old people for the government to support anyway. And older people are still vigorous so why waste the economic value they can produce. Besides, the retirement age of 65 was set by Bismarck back in the day when few people lived that long. (And you think politicians are cynical today. How about those social security programs that don't begin until you're dead?)
6. The Career of Gordon Brown
He was on the ropes but then as the crisis deepened, he stepped up and the U.K.was comforted by his competence (which is really all he has to offer because personality he ain't got.) But now that the crisis has further unfolded and precious little the government has done has seemed to work, you can hear the sounds of electoral blades being sharpened. The problem for the U.K. is that his likely Tory successor David Cameron would be the least original thinker at a convention of insurance salesmen.
7. Citibank
Of course it is too big to fail. So was the Soviet Union. But the brand is so damaged and worse damage is almost certainly on the way when the consumer credit crisis hits that it'll be further broken into bits and pieces. And it won't be the only bank to tank. In fact, in an ironic twist, it's entirely possible that before this is over the government may start giving away one of the banks it owns with every toaster you buy.
8. Thousands More Afghans
Civilian death tolls in Afghanistan are mounting. Escalating the war won't bring this number down. Sadly, one thing that is almost certain to survive the crisis is the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
9. Stability in Mexico
For more on this, see the Axis of Upheaval series elsewhere on this site. More on that in a day ortwo.
(In which I will focus on the Axis of Instability -- the coalition of the unhinged that is the most direct link between Kim Jong Il and Joaquin Phoenix.)
10. Unilateralism
While The New York Times reports that the Obama administration is maintaining many of the draconian anti-terror policies of the Darth Vader Administration, some old favorites will have to be scrapped. Unilateralism will be the first to go. Not necessarily as a matter of principle. Rather, we simply can't afford it any more...
continues below
No, we'll just pretend it was all planned and maybe the editors can link them together and have it look like a carefully conceived symphony of in-depth perspectives on what is going to happen to us all at the end of this economic death spiral.
And in that vein, just to help you with your planning, here are some people and things that won't survive the economic crisis:
1. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso
There are items on today's sushi menu that probably will stay fresh longer than he is in office. Nobody had much confidence in him to begin with. But with the Japanese economy dedicated to disproving the theory that things never get as bad as you fear, expect his departure and a parade of successors that will make Japanese voters yearn for the stability of say, post-war Italy. (What does the Japanese market downturn have in common with a bunch of super-models? No bottoms.)
2. Illinois Senator Roland Burris
Here's my bet: he is convicted of a crime long before Rod Blagojevich's pompadour is in the hands of a prison barber. I know this has nothing to do with the crisis, except perhaps for the fact that the American people are hungry for people to blame and punish -- for anything.
3. Chrysler
We already know that GM and Chrysler are putting a bunch of lousy brands out of their misery. (Although the Chinese will probably buy Hummer and make a fortune selling them as mobile homes given that they meet Chinese housing standards for a family of 12.) I think the last Pontiac fan died of old age during the Truman Administration. There are probably a few beauticians in Union, New Jersey who still think the PT Cruiser is anything other than the automotive equivalent of a mullet. But for the most part the makes consigned to the scrap heap the other day will not be missed. Neither will Chrysler once it is clear its management is doing too little -- it's too far gone. Congress is tired of bailing out the private equity fat cats that own much of it and everyone realizes that its plan for being saved by Fiat is like having someone throw a drowning man a cinder block. After them, other car brands will go. There are simply too many. The market has spoken. And no White House task force is going to be able to persuade consumers otherwise.
4. My 401-K
I hope you will all come visit me in the refrigerator box in which I plan to spend my sunset years. I'm thinking of some place nice, maybe under a bridge somewhere in Florida.
5. Retiring at Age 65
In a more serious vein, while I may be content to live in a refrigerator box by a canal in St. Pete wrestling alligators for scraps of food, other harder-working Americans are going to realize that they've got to keep working. Fortunately, this crisis coincides with the demographic realities of an aging society in which there are just too many old people for the government to support anyway. And older people are still vigorous so why waste the economic value they can produce. Besides, the retirement age of 65 was set by Bismarck back in the day when few people lived that long. (And you think politicians are cynical today. How about those social security programs that don't begin until you're dead?)
6. The Career of Gordon Brown
He was on the ropes but then as the crisis deepened, he stepped up and the U.K.was comforted by his competence (which is really all he has to offer because personality he ain't got.) But now that the crisis has further unfolded and precious little the government has done has seemed to work, you can hear the sounds of electoral blades being sharpened. The problem for the U.K. is that his likely Tory successor David Cameron would be the least original thinker at a convention of insurance salesmen.
7. Citibank
Of course it is too big to fail. So was the Soviet Union. But the brand is so damaged and worse damage is almost certainly on the way when the consumer credit crisis hits that it'll be further broken into bits and pieces. And it won't be the only bank to tank. In fact, in an ironic twist, it's entirely possible that before this is over the government may start giving away one of the banks it owns with every toaster you buy.
8. Thousands More Afghans
Civilian death tolls in Afghanistan are mounting. Escalating the war won't bring this number down. Sadly, one thing that is almost certain to survive the crisis is the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
9. Stability in Mexico
For more on this, see the Axis of Upheaval series elsewhere on this site. More on that in a day ortwo.
(In which I will focus on the Axis of Instability -- the coalition of the unhinged that is the most direct link between Kim Jong Il and Joaquin Phoenix.)
10. Unilateralism
While The New York Times reports that the Obama administration is maintaining many of the draconian anti-terror policies of the Darth Vader Administration, some old favorites will have to be scrapped. Unilateralism will be the first to go. Not necessarily as a matter of principle. Rather, we simply can't afford it any more...
continues below