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Indo
07-29-2009, 04:59 PM
ELDERLY LEAD OPPOSITION ON OBAMA HEALTHCARE

By DICK MORRIS

Published on TheHill.com on July 28, 2009

In 1993-94, when the Clintons tried to pass healthcare reform, the opposition to their proposals was concentrated among middle-aged voters, galvanized by the "Harry and Louise" ads. But opposition to the Obama proposals centers among the elderly, who suspect that it will mean a sharp curtailment of their medical care.

The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll of July 21-24 found that voters over 65 opposed the Obama plan by 35-47. They oppose a government-run insurance plan to compete with private plans by 31-56 and believe that the Obama plan will "cost me money" rather than "save me money" by 57-20! Only 24 percent of the elderly feel that the Obama plan will lead to better healthcare for "you and your family," while 45 percent believe the quality of care will be worse.

By 61-29, elderly voters reject the idea that "it is possible to have major healthcare reform without increasing the budget deficit. They also say, by 65-29, that it is impossible to have it without raising taxes. Three-quarters expect their personal taxes to go up if the plan passes.

Oddly, for a population that now gets its health services through government-run Medicare, they would rather be in a privately run system than one managed by the government, by 67-7.

Most resistant to change, the elderly voters cite fears that they "will have to change existing healthcare arrangements" as the greatest reason to oppose the Obama plan.

The political impact of these findings is enormous. Instead of facing an inchoate unease about Obama's proposals, Democrats who vote for them are likely to find themselves running into the teeth of strong, concentrated elderly opposition. Fears of rationing and the denial of care are stoking opposition to a fever pitch among the elderly. So widespread is the dissatisfaction with the Obama plan that it may drive the elderly into Republican ranks as surely as Bush's Social Security reforms alienated then in 2005 and drove them into the arms of Democrats.

The factors that animate elderly opposition to the Obama plan are not generally those under discussion in Washington. The polling shows that the elderly are not as fixated on macro issues like the deficit or what taxes must be raised to pay for the program as they are on very specific personal concerns about their continued access to quality medical care. Seniors are less interested in whether there will be a government insurance option than whether they will face rationing of care.

Open-ended questions on a number of surveys find the elderly very worried that they will not be able to get quality-of-life treatments, such as hip or knee replacements, under the Obama program. Others worry that the program will encourage them to give up when facing serious illness and enter hospices to minimize costs to the government.

The Clintons lost the elections of 1994 primarily because of the tax increases the Democratic Congress passed. Healthcare reform was not nearly as important in their defeat as the tax hikes. But in the elections of 2010, the elderly are likely to respond harshly to the healthcare reforms and, increasingly, may vote Republican as a result.

For his part, Obama faces a tough dilemma. The more he enlists his personal popularity in his campaign for healthcare reform, the more his job approval ratings will drop -- as they have recently. And the lower these ratings go, the less likely he is to be able to persuade his party to pass his healthcare reforms.

These survey results will come as no surprise to congressmen and senators who go home in August and take soundings in their districts. The opposition of their elderly constituents to the plans making their way through Congress will be obvious. And when they feel the heat, they will, hopefully, see the light.

steelreserve
07-29-2009, 06:07 PM
I wonder whether this is an indication of OMGbama's newly minted reputation beginning to catch up with him: "We'll spend a ton of your money, and who knows if you'll see anything in return." Seems like people are starting to catch on pretty quickly now.

MACH1
07-29-2009, 06:13 PM
Yeah, they don't like the idea of their retirement, pension plans that they worked hard for being taken away and forced to go on the obaamacare plan.

Hammer Of The GODS
07-29-2009, 07:19 PM
Man, by the end of this bobbleheads term the comparisons to the TITANIC will be on everyones tongue!


Obaminites gave him the rope................ he is now fashoning the noose!



.

Preacher
07-29-2009, 10:59 PM
Oddly, for a population that now gets its health services through government-run Medicare, they would rather be in a privately run system than one managed by the government, by 67-7.


And that, ladies and gentlemen, really should be the last word on national health care.

revefsreleets
07-30-2009, 08:28 AM
My grandmother was telling me last weekend how awful the labyrinth of paperwork she must navigate every time she makes even TOUCHES a healthcare issue. She doesn't wish that on anyone...

By the by, she's a lifelong D, voted for Barry, and thinks this initiative sucks...

JEFF4i
07-30-2009, 08:45 PM
Trusting a FOX News Poll on Obama is like polling an NRA meeting on gun control.

Preacher
07-30-2009, 08:55 PM
Trusting a FOX News Poll on Obama is like polling an NRA meeting on gun control.

That's interesting... since the FOX polls have usually been pretty dang accurate.

JEFF4i
07-30-2009, 09:05 PM
That's interesting... since the FOX polls have usually been pretty dang accurate.

Compared to what? The most accurate are Gallup, if anything. FOX is notoriously conservative, and their polls reflect it.

One of these days I'll run up to my folk's place where my term paper is that showed thematically how ABC/CBS were liberal, FOX is conservative, and Gallup usually falls somewhere in the middle on almost everything based on many factors.

Preacher
07-30-2009, 09:12 PM
Compared to what? The most accurate are Gallup, if anything. FOX is notoriously conservative, and their polls reflect it.

One of these days I'll run up to my folk's place where my term paper is that showed thematically how ABC/CBS were liberal, FOX is conservative, and Gallup usually falls somewhere in the middle on almost everything based on many factors.

Actually, I have found Gallup to be slanted to the left and Zogby a better middle of the road poll.

But the deeper question is, which polls are asking the best questions. After all, the questions determine the answers.

JEFF4i
07-30-2009, 09:15 PM
Actually, I have found Gallup to be slanted to the left and Zogby a better middle of the road poll.

But the deeper question is, which polls are asking the best questions. After all, the questions determine the answers.

That's the nature in the end with polls, and why they will only be so useful. What questions you ask, how you phrase them, in what order you ask them, and who you ask them to are all massive factors in what is determined.

I'll start paying more attention to Zogby though, for sure.

Preacher
07-30-2009, 09:45 PM
That's the nature in the end with polls, and why they will only be so useful. What questions you ask, how you phrase them, in what order you ask them, and who you ask them to are all massive factors in what is determined.

I'll start paying more attention to Zogby though, for sure.

Yeah, what people don't realize in the end, is that everything is a epistimological and metaphysical foray. The reality of what we know is only determined by how we go about it. Thus, reality is predetermined by our bias, which is why Kant was right in some ways.

What polling REALLY is, is an attempt to create a metanarrative, or judge the prevailing metanarrative. . . but the internal bias of the pollsters predetermine which metanarrative will be favored. That is where epistemology and metaphysics come into play... and why, in the end, pollsters that use both republicans AND democrats to create the polls, are better, but still are good.

In the end, there is no such thing as an absolute reality that we as humans can comprehend and explain.

tony hipchest
07-30-2009, 10:03 PM
Yeah, what people don't realize in the end, is that everything is a epistimological and metaphysical foray. The reality of what we know is only determined by how we go about it. Thus, reality is predetermined by our bias, which is why Kant was right in some ways.

What polling REALLY is, is an attempt to create a metanarrative, or judge the prevailing metanarrative. . . but the internal bias of the pollsters predetermine which metanarrative will be favored. That is where epistemology and metaphysics come into play... and why, in the end, pollsters that use both republicans AND democrats to create the polls, are better, but still are good.

In the end, there is no such thing as an absolute reality that we as humans can comprehend and explain.:doh: "in ENGLISH preach..! we all dont speak in tongues."

:laughing:

revefsreleets
07-31-2009, 08:14 AM
He said polls are inherently inaccurate because of the fallibility of the pollsters and the methods used, more or less...Heisenberg Principle of Uncertainty, observing an experiment also alters that experiment, stuff like that.

However, in this case, the poll is too lopsided to really be questioned. What was it, 67-7? These things usually have a built in +/- of like 5%...

xfl2001fan
07-31-2009, 08:32 AM
Actually, I have found Gallup to be slanted to the left and Zogby a better middle of the road poll.

But the deeper question is, which polls are asking the best questions. After all, the questions determine the answers.

Polls are so retarded.

1 - What questions are being asked?
2 - What answers are given to choose from?
3 - How are those answers worded? (KEY ISSUE)
4 - What is the sample size for your poll?
5 - Where did you get your sample size from? (SECONDARY ISSUE)

revefsreleets
07-31-2009, 08:47 AM
The question is too simple to apply much bias to it: Would you rather have private insurance or insurance run by the government?

67-7