View Full Version : AccuScore: Not an easy ride for the Steelers

08-31-2009, 10:15 PM
AccuScore: Not an easy ride for the Steelers
By Stephen Oh, AccuScore 8 hours, 14 minutes ago

AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The entire AFC North should benefit by playing an easier schedule in 2009. For example, the combined winning percentage of Steelers’ opponents in 2008 was 53 percent, but their 2009 opponents won just 43 percent of their games. Even though the schedule is easier, the Steelers are averaging fewer wins per simulation (10.3 per simulation) than the 12 games they won in 2008. AccuScore expects the Bengals to be better with Carson Palmer(notes) back and the Browns to have a better 2009 season assuming they have greater stability at quarterback. The Steelers still have a better chance of making the playoffs than any team in the entire NFC.

Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Mason(notes) un-retired and the Ravens are nipping at the heels of the Steelers. Rookie tackle Michael Oher(notes) and second-year running back Ray Rice(notes) are playing well and the Ravens should have an even better running game this year than last year. There is a 62-percent chance that Baltimore wins 10 or more games. The Ravens have used the preseason to work on their passing game and at the point quarterback Joe Flacco(notes) is showing signs that he will successfully develop into more than just a game manager in his second year.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh(notes), but they get Carson Palmer back. They did acquire the reliable Laveranues Coles(notes) and Chris Henry has tremendous big-play ability. The Bengals should have a Top 12 passing attack which is why the Bengals are winning 1.5 more games in 2009 simulations than they won in 2008. The team could approach eight wins if Palmer cuts down on his interceptions. In his past 20 starts spanning the past two seasons he has 24 interceptions in just 20 games. If he can return to his ’05-07 form where he had 25 INTs in 32 games the Bengals average over seven wins per season simulation and have a surprisingly strong 12-percent chance of making the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns
The problem in Cleveland is that neither Brady Quinn(notes) nor Derek Anderson(notes) has proven ability to complete a high enough percentage of passes on third down or in the red zone to beat the better teams in the league. That said, the Bengals have a much easier schedule with ’09 opponents winning just 45 percent of their 2008 games (12 percentage points less than ’08 opponents won). AccuScore expects Braylon Edwards(notes) to not have as many dropped balls in ’09. His drops cost the Browns at least one win last season (vs. Baltimore) and perhaps one or two more. The Browns should not look to move Edwards since it is important he bounce back for Cleveland if they want to improve in 2009.

Steelers 10.4 5.7 52.3% 77.7% 2.1% 29.4% 41.0% 27.5%
Ravens 10.0 6.0 44.8% 72.5% 2.8% 35.2% 41.2% 20.8%
Bengals 5.9 10.1 1.7% 5.2% 63.3% 33.8% 2.7% 0.2%
Browns 5.7 10.3 1.2% 4.5% 66.9% 30.5% 2.4% 0.1%

08-31-2009, 10:52 PM
Interesting statistical models....

Puts us as first in the AFC. Problem is, it puts us as losing some games in the AFCN. We haven't lost a significant game in the AFCN since 2006, if memory serves.

09-01-2009, 05:50 AM
Very interesting, but as Coach T sez . . . "I don't play into that hocus pocus". :thumbsup:

Games are won in the trenches, not with some computer mumbo jumbo.

09-01-2009, 08:36 AM
Very interesting, but as Coach T sez . . . "I don't play into that hocus pocus". :thumbsup:

Games are won in the trenches, not with some computer mumbo jumbo.

I always thought the games were won in the trenches as well, but with our horrible OL coach leading our pathetic OL how can we still use that cliche. Supposedly this is the year Ben gets killed as well.

09-01-2009, 10:36 AM
Blah... these things are for the fantasy tools. Anybody with common sense can predict what a team might do at this time of the year. What the hell is 10.4 wins anyway? What's 5.7 losses? So we'll play 16.1 games? (sarcasm alert: I'm aware of rounding of numbers)

I said before... let me know when a geek uses calculus to predict the Lions to win 11 games this year... and it actually happens. Then I'll be impressed.

90% of us on here can just simply look at the schedule and predict us to win 11 games. Barring major injuries, most of us will be within 2 games or less of the Steeler's win total.

09-01-2009, 11:10 AM
I agree these numbers really don't mean sh!t. This is still the NFL, and the any given week senerio will always be the mantra, especially when your the World Champs and everyone is gunning for you to bring some meaning to their season.

The target is on our back. Let's no repeat 2006. I think that is one of Tomlin's basic messages.

Let's show 'em why were the champs, and simply win.

09-01-2009, 11:33 AM
How the hell does a computer simulate the effects of, injuries, weather, or clutch(Ben's got that by the bucket)?

I mean sure you can put in the numbers for... What the defense did last year, what the offense did. But after that you get nothing but a rather vague guess whats gonna happen this year.

These simulations are the same things that have said the Cowboys are going to the Superbowl for the last 13years, the numbers look good for a few weeks. But the wheels fall off the wagon before they can even sniff the playoffs.

I wouldn't even bet money on teams I didn't like or follow based off of these simulations. There's just to many intangibles.