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View Full Version : Why I think the Steelers will get in...


warddj86
12-23-2009, 03:42 PM
I know I'll get a lot of replies saying things like, "Not the way they're playing" or "Aint gonna happen" but I'm gonna say it anyway....

We are trailing Baltimore, Denver, Miami, Jacksonville, and the Jets as well as ahead of Tennessee and Houston for those 5th and 6th seeds.

We play Baltimore this weekend (Hopefully a W)
Miami plays Houston in Miami (loser is done, in my opinion MIA will Win)
Houston is eliminated
Jacksonville plays New England in NE where the Pats don't lose (NE wins)
Jacksonville is eliminated
Tennessee plays San Diego who is untouchable nowadays in TN (SD gets the check)
Tennessee is eliminated
NY Jets play Indy who is on the "pursuit of perfection" (IND will win)
NY Jets eliminated
Denver plays Philadelphia in PHI, who is seeking to clinch the NFC east (PHI wins)
Denver trails PIT due to head-to-head victory on MNF

So saying that all transpires...

5 Baltimore (simply because of the better divisional record)
6 Miami (still ahead of PIT because they beat HOU in Week 16)

7 Pittsburgh
8 Denver

Pittsburgh plays Miami in an all-or-nothing playoff elimination game (IF they win they're in)

PIT would hold tiebreakers over both DEN and MIA so that would make them the 6th seed.....

Of course this can only happen IF THE DEFENSE DECIDES TO SHOW UP AGAINST BAL AND MIA....

That is my reasoning.... Comments?

canadasteel
12-23-2009, 03:50 PM
I couldn't have laid it out better myself! I agree 100%.

Angus Burgher
12-23-2009, 04:12 PM
I think that Pittsburgh will win the next two games and snag a playoff spot as well. Just speaking of the wins itself, I'm basing it off some (possibly flawed logic.

Look at the teams we've lost to. Aside from the Bungles, it's been losing teams. The Ravens loss I'm not going to count because we didn't have Ben (not blaming the loss on Dennis... but he is far from the QB that Ben is).

So now we have Baltimore and Miami, who despite some problems, are winning teams and are fighting for playoff spots.

Who have we had the best luck against this season? Denver, San Diego, Minnesota, Green Bay and Tennessee. WINNING TEAMS OR TEAMS PLAYING FOR PLAYOFF SPOTS. Plus, we also beat the Browns and the Lions, but the point is, we play well against good teams.

If that holds true, we should win both of these games.

GoSlash27
12-23-2009, 04:13 PM
Just looking at the matchups, if the games unfold as Vegas predicts they will, we're in.

We are favored over B'moore by 2 1/2.
Philly is favored over Denver by 7.
New England is favored over Jacksonville by 8.
Indy is favored over the Jets by 5 1/2.*
Miami is favored over Houston by 3.*
Tennessee is favored over San Diego by 3 (which can help us).*

If the lines pan out, then that puts us in control of our destiny against Miami (favors us).

But even if Vegas has a collective brain seizure and the games marked with the * do not go as predicted, the only games that can knock us out at that point are

Jets vs. Cincy (favors the Bengals)
Texans vs. New England. (favors the Pats)*
Tennessee vs Seattle (favors the Titans)*
and both of the marked games must be upsets to knock us out.

Every single matchup favors us, and the closer the spread, the more hurdles they have to overcome to knock us out.

So odds are greatly in our favor. We win the next 2 games and let the rest sort itself out, and we'll most likely get to raise a ruckus in the playoffs with Troy back in the mix, see how far we can get.

Personally, I'm always happy with a tied season or better, and I consider any season we make the playoffs successful. Anything beyond that is a bonus.

kittenfantastico76
12-23-2009, 04:30 PM
I like the way you think. And I stick to my comment before... It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings!

Psyychoward86
12-23-2009, 04:56 PM
wow, we sure as hell need a lot of help. I didnt "give up" on the steelers until after the browns loss. I guess this brings my hopes flickering back a bit. All of those W/L scenarios could very easily happen. Thanks for the scenario...

Glace
12-23-2009, 05:01 PM
Is Indy really "playing for perfection" though?

They've got homefield throughout locked up....there's no reason for them to show up against the Jets.

sharkweek
12-23-2009, 05:32 PM
Is Indy really "playing for perfection" though?

They've got homefield throughout locked up....there's no reason for them to show up against the Jets.

Winding down prematurely has come back to bite Indy in the butt before, this is the last game Indy has to really test themselves because this is essentially a playoff game for the Jets. Indy doesn't have to chase perfection, but they always have a bye plus next week's game vs. Buffalo to start thinking about sitting players. Quitting now might hurt them as it would mean little to no real game time in nearly a month if they really choose to withhold too many of their starters.

AllD
12-23-2009, 07:05 PM
The bottom line is if Polamalu does not come back we will not get very far.

Preacher
12-23-2009, 07:09 PM
Winding down prematurely has come back to bite Indy in the butt before, this is the last game Indy has to really test themselves because this is essentially a playoff game for the Jets. Indy doesn't have to chase perfection, but they always have a bye plus next week's game vs. Buffalo to start thinking about sitting players. Quitting now might hurt them as it would mean little to no real game time in nearly a month if they really choose to withhold too many of their starters.


Yep.

Also, if you watched the bench... with the way they responded when they won that game, this streak means something BIG to them. They'll come out to play for sure.

cubanstogie
12-23-2009, 07:16 PM
I hope your right about about getting the help we need to get in. I worry much less about the Steelers taking care of business. Both remaining opponents are run teams and much less of a threat to tear our secondary to shreds, although I didn't see Gradkowski, Cutler or Cassel shredding us either. Our run D is still solid and offensively confidence has to be sky high. Last Ravens game was very competitive and Ben should make the difference this time. Heres to your predicitons.:drink:

Triggerfish
12-23-2009, 10:28 PM
I read an article or two that says the following needs to happen for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs:

1) Steelers WIN out
2) Jets LOSES ONE of their remaining games
3) Denver LOSES ONE of their remaining games
4) Jacksonville LOSES ONE of their remaining games

I even ran this through the Yahoo generator and the Steelers DO get in at #6. However, I've been in debate with someone who claims that if Houston also finishes 9-7 they win the tie-breaker and Pittsburgh is eliminated. However, I have heard no mention of Houston being involved in the Steelers playoff hope scenerio, and when I run the Yahoo generator again WITH both HOU and TEN winning out (TEN thrown in just for kicks), the Steelers STILL get the 6 seed. So, my question is how do the Steelers hold the tie-breaker over Houston if both finish with the same record? My understanding is that it would come down to common opponents, and Houston has us beat there. There is a required FOUR common teams for that tie-breaker to be valid, and there ARE 4 common teams. HOWEVER, one of those teams is TEN who Pittsburgh played and beat once, while Houston played twice and split. So, does that tie-breaker not apply in that situation, since Houston had 2 opportunities to play TEN and split those games?? I'm just confused. Thanks!

steel striker
12-23-2009, 10:30 PM
First thing first we take care of business then root like hell for the proper playoff teams. It may sound like alot has to happen for us but, it is a real possible senaro. Like most after the browns game i was like well there goes the season. The after the packer game and, all of the proper teams lost I was like man this could really happen. I know our defense is leaky but, who would want to play the steelers with the way our offense looked against the pack? I know it was only one game but, it really fired me up!

mwittman5
12-23-2009, 10:32 PM
First thing first we take care of business then root like hell for the proper playoff teams. It may sound like alot has to happen for us but, it is a real possible senaro. Like most after the browns game i was like well there goes the season. The after the packer game and, all of the proper teams lost I was like man this could really happen. I know our defense is leaky but, who would want to play the steelers with the way our offense looked against the pack? I know it was only one game but, it really fired me up!

I think if we make playoffs then polamalu will play and he will make the D better. How much better remains to be seen, but if the offense can put up 30 or more points then the D wont need to be that good

Triggerfish
12-23-2009, 10:48 PM
Actually, the guy I've been discussing this scenerio stuff with is a Pats fan (over at their board...don't ask...long story). Let me tell you...those guys want NO PART of the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs! It's kinda funny that they have so much fear for a team that lost to the Browns, Raiders, Chiefs, but you know what? If I WEREN'T a Steelers fan (when pigs fly), I'd be damn scared to have to meet them in the postseason too, regardless of what happened in the regular season. Sure, we have a LOT of problems right now, but we're STILL the defending Champs and a damn DANGEROUS team anyway you slice it. HERE WE GO STEELERS!!! I am so freakin' pumped for this weekend! :tt03:

Rotorhead
12-24-2009, 12:30 AM
Trigger, the way Houston gets in is via a 3-way tie (not sure which teams) but basically the Steelers would lose the tie breaker between the 3rd party and then it would to that team and the Texans, which they win.

ricardisimo
12-24-2009, 02:30 AM
Every single matchup favors us, and the closer the spread, the more hurdles they have to overcome to knock us out.

So odds are greatly in our favor. We win the next 2 games and let the rest sort itself out, and we'll most likely get to raise a ruckus in the playoffs with Troy back in the mix, see how far we can get.

Personally, I'm always happy with a tied season or better, and I consider any season we make the playoffs successful. Anything beyond that is a bonus.

This is what Alan Greenspan used to call "irrational exuberance." Of course, Greenspan was a prick of the first order, so why the hell not be irrational here? Go Steelers.

We should be clear that the most irrational part of all of it is the idea of us winning out. I'm not sure this is our year, but to the other guy's point, if we can squeak by and get Troy back for the playoffs... all bets are off then.

Triggerfish
12-24-2009, 06:29 AM
Hmmm....wonder why the Post-Gazette article mentions nothing about Houston. Actually, I take that back...it clearly states that Pittsburgh owns the tie-breaker over them in a 3 or more way tie. Also, when I run in through the playoff scenerio generator thingy on Yahoo with Houston and Tennessee winning out (thus also 9-7), Steelers are still #6 wild card. I'm not sure how we could beat them in a tie either, but maybe?? Oh who cares I suppose! Let's just beat the Ratbirds this week, and let the cards fall where they may.

stlrtruck
12-24-2009, 08:15 AM
I have no reason to not believe they can't do it. They've done it before and while they haven't played the best throughout the year, they are still in contention.

I was talking to a co-worker today about people deserving things. And in reality, the Steelers do not deserve to be in the playoffs but getting in to the playoffs isn't about deserving - it's about EARNING!

GoSlash27
12-24-2009, 10:12 AM
Is Indy really "playing for perfection" though?

They've got homefield throughout locked up....there's no reason for them to show up against the Jets.
I seriously doubt the Colts are just gonna mail this game in, but even if they do, the Jets would still have to find a way to beat the Bengals next week.