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View Full Version : We're Going To End Up The #5 Seed


SlackerCSB
12-27-2009, 07:23 PM
Steelers Win & Ravens Lose & Jets Lose & Texans Lose

HERE WE GO STEELERS! :tt02:

MasterOfPuppets
12-27-2009, 07:26 PM
:cheer: .......:scratchchin:...........:sadpace:

HometownGal
12-27-2009, 07:29 PM
We have to win next week against the Fins - doesn't matter what any other team does at that point.

All units are going to have to bring their A +++ game. No room for error.

I BELIEVE! :tt02::tt03::tt:

7willBheaven
12-27-2009, 07:32 PM
Easier said than done...like Hometown just said, we have to win first. Now we have to hope the Pats and Bengals both actually play (to win the game..haha), and not do an Indy and bench some of their players and end up loosing. So if they take care of Hou and NYJ that leaves Balt and Den who play Oak and KC respectively. It doesnt matter what happens here, as if Den wins they are 9-7 and we have the edge there, so it could be us and Balt in the wildcard spots. But like i said lets get a win first then hope for Pats/Bengals wins.

Dino 6 Rings
12-27-2009, 07:38 PM
remember how hard it was to stop Cribbs in the wildcat...well now we have the Dolphins and their wildcat...so its going to be very tough next week for sure...I can't believe how bad Miami played today...just ugly to get beat that bad by the freaking Texans.

Rick5895
12-27-2009, 07:39 PM
There is no doubt that we will win vs the fish. The Bengals and Pats are playing for seeding so IMO they will beat the jets and Texans respectively. That would put in the playoffs.
But the magic that happens is the Raiders are going to continue the assault on the AFC North playoff teams by defeating the Ratbirds.
IN my mind we will play the SD Chargers in Sd for the SFC title game. Then we will play the Eagles for the Super bowl in Miami. ( I can dream can't I, LOL)

Rick5895
12-27-2009, 07:40 PM
Sorry AFC title game

mikegrimey
12-27-2009, 07:42 PM
Cincy and NE should be playing their starters and playing to win.

They know if the other team stumbles they could get the #3 seed, which would come in handy if a couple of divional round upsets happened. Plus, as i've seen other people already mention, if they were to stumble against these teams or yank their starters, fate may have them playing them the very next week---thats not the kind of situation any team wants to face. Back to back games against a team they laid down against.

It's kind of a long shot, but definitely within reach. jets vs. bengals should be purely a defensive game, but the Bengals can pull away if Sanchez starts slinging INTs like he has this year.
We're gonna have to hope that the Pats can win on the road, Houston is a lot like us, a wishy washy team, they can be stunning one week, and lame the next.

Indo
12-27-2009, 07:43 PM
Yep
We are actually going to be rooting for BOTH the Pats* AND the Bungals


Can life get any more nauseating?

:yuck::puke:

SteelerFanInStl
12-27-2009, 07:44 PM
remember how hard it was to stop Cribbs in the wildcat...well now we have the Dolphins and their wildcat...so its going to be very tough next week for sure...I can't believe how bad Miami played today...just ugly to get beat that bad by the freaking Texans.

Miami's wildcat offense is good when it's being run by Ronnie Brown. He's out for the year and Ricky Williams left the game today with a shoulder injury. There's no reason to fear their wildcat. Although they were losing bad early, they ended up losing by only 7 pts.

mikegrimey
12-27-2009, 07:45 PM
the playoff race makes for strange bedfellows indeed

SteveS
12-27-2009, 07:51 PM
Guys I don't see how Houstin has the tie breaker over us. They have the exact same conference record that we have at 5-6 and exact same overall record. Do they have the next tie breaker on us, whatever it may be after conference record?

I am really confused now.

It also seems that Denver might have to lose AGAIN for us to get in? Acoording to what ESPN and NFL.com are saying because they own some wacky tiebreaker over everyone?

What the? This is crazy, I don't think I have ever been so confused over playoff scenerios going into the final week as I am now...

7willBheaven
12-27-2009, 07:58 PM
SteveS Check this out...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

"Houston finishes ahead of Pittsburgh based on common games (3-1 over Steelers' 1-3)."


Heres the rest of it regarding the AFC...



"During the regular season, the seeds reflect how the playoffs would stand if the season ended up to that point. The NFL playoffs are not based on a pure bracket system. In the divisional playoffs, the No. 1 seed is assured of playing the lowest-seeded Wild Card survivor. There are no restrictions on intra-division games and the higher seed of any matchup will have home-field advantage.

AFC Playoff tiebreakers

* New England earns the No. 3 seed over Cincinnati based on strength of victory (.433 to Bengals' .403).
* Denver earns the No. 5 seed over N.Y. Jets and Baltimore based on strength of victory (.513 to Jets' .492 and Ravens' .387) and conference record over Houston (6-5 to Texans' 5-6).
* N.Y. Jets earn the No. 6 seed over Baltimore and Houston based on strength of victory (.492 to Ravens' .387 and Texans' .392).
* Baltimore finishes ahead of Houston based on conference record (6-5 over Texans' 5-6).
* Houston finishes ahead of Pittsburgh based on common games (3-1 over Steelers' 1-3).



Divisional tiebreakers

* Baltimore finishes ahead of Pittsburgh based on divisional record (3-2 over Steelers' 1-4).

AFC non-Playoff tiebreakers

* Miami finishes ahead of Jacksonville based on head-to-head (1-0).
* Oakland finishes ahead of Buffalo based on conference record (4-6 over Bills' 3-8).
* Jacksonville finishes ahead of Tennessee based on division record (3-3 to Titans' 2-4).
"

steel striker
12-27-2009, 08:01 PM
All of these playoff senaros make my head hurt. lol

steel striker
12-27-2009, 08:02 PM
First thing first we need to beat the fish and, then pray for all the rest to happen.

GoSlash27
12-27-2009, 08:04 PM
Guys I don't see how Houstin has the tie breaker over us. They have the exact same conference record that we have at 5-6 and exact same overall record. Do they have the next tie breaker on us, whatever it may be after conference record?

I am really confused now.

The answer (as I understand it) is that the *Broncos* have the tie breaker over us. Lemme explain...
Let's say the Ravens get the #5 spot. It's down to us and the Broncos for #6. We beat the Broncos because we beat them head-to-head.
But now if Houston gets thrown in the mix, the nature of the tie breaker changes (3 way tie). First tie breaker that matters is conference wins. Denver's got us beat there, so they would advance ahead of us.

Hope that clears it up...

Gnutella
12-27-2009, 08:07 PM
Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Jets. We need at least three of those teams to lose next week in order to make the playoffs. (And that's providing we take care of our own business.)

mikegrimey
12-27-2009, 08:08 PM
So if the STeelers/Ravens/Broncos all finish 9-7

The Ravens would grab the 5 spot due to the tie breaker

leaving jus the steelers and broncos

which the steelers would take via a head to head victory.


Man what a mess.

Still very possible though, looks like we need both the jets and houston to lose though!

SteveS
12-27-2009, 08:08 PM
So basically we lose every tie breaker no matter what? That still doesn't tell me much in terms of how next Sunday's games need to unfold.

I think at this point I just want to see the league's official scenerio for us to get in, until then officially consider me confused and bewildered.

Dino 6 Rings
12-27-2009, 08:09 PM
we want all the other 8-7 teams to lose, and us to win, so their fans can do all this crap next sunday night and we can laugh at being the only 9-7 teams and they can argue over tiebreakers with 6 8-8 teams.

supa_fly_steeler
12-27-2009, 08:12 PM
we need to eradicate miami next week and then terminate the bengals in the playoffs

http://worldsoforos.com/secondviews/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/arnold-schwarzenegger-the-terminator.jpg

http://news.softpedia.com/images/news2/CG-Arnold-Schwarzenegger-in-New-Terminator-Salvation-Spot-2.jpg

7willBheaven
12-27-2009, 08:13 PM
Its not that hard Steve....and for the most part yes...all these teams own tie breakers on us. Since there could easily be a 3-4 way tie between teams we loose out.

Quoting what Gnutella said....

"Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Jets. We need at least three of those teams to lose next week in order to make the playoffs. (And that's providing we take care of our own business.)"

This is because we all do (at this point and time) and can end up with the same record.

Had HOU and NYJ lost today like we had hoped (esp with NYJ playing INDY), it would have made things much easier. It would have been down to just us beating MIA and eliminating them, then either BALT or DEN loosing. So instead of just hoping for us to win and 1 team to loose, we have to hope for us to win and 3 teams to loose now.

SteveS
12-27-2009, 08:19 PM
So realistically we need BOTH the Texans and Jets to lose as those are BOTH winnable games for their division winning opponents. But then the hard part is hoping that either the Raiders upset the Ravens OR the Chiefs upset the Broncos considering the first two go our way? I would call that a long shot.

Oh well, at least I think we have a good shot at beating the phins, especially if Troy returns.

If ONLY we can miraculously sneek in there with Troy back playing, I think we are dangerous and could make a run at defending our title. What a shame.

7willBheaven
12-27-2009, 08:22 PM
Steve...yup your right. Hopefully NE/CIN show up and play instead of resting and such...they SHOULD be able to win those games. Then as you said the Chiefs/Raiders winning could be tough...though both those teams won games they shouldnt have (KC vs us/etc and Raiders vs CIN/us/etc).

Sharkissle29
12-27-2009, 08:25 PM
So realistically we need BOTH the Texans and Jets to lose as those are BOTH winnable games for their division winning opponents. But then the hard part is hoping that either the Raiders upset the Ravens OR the Chiefs upset the Broncos considering the first two go our way? I would call that a long shot.

Oh well, at least I think we have a good shot at beating the phins, especially if Troy returns.

If ONLY we can miraculously sneek in there with Troy back playing, I think we are dangerous and could make a run at defending our title. What a shame.

The chiefs and raiders have been playing at least better than they did early on in the season.....ya never know

mikegrimey
12-27-2009, 08:26 PM
My question is would we need the broncos or ravens to lose?

Let's say it's just us 3 at 9-7.

There would be two wild card spots up for grab.

To deduce the #5 spot, all 3 would go into the tiebreaker, which the Ravens would come out on top of, correct?

That would leave the #6 seed open, and two teams tied, if we applied the tiebreaker there---we would be in over the Broncos via head to head victory.

Right?
Or am I missing something?

SteveS
12-27-2009, 08:27 PM
At LEAST we have TWO chances for one underdog team to pull the upset. Imagine if the Chiefs over the Broncos was our only chance. The way it is now, if that one doesn't go our way, at least we can also hope for the Raiders to win. 1of 2 baby, 1 of 2 is all we need....trying to stay positive...:tt04:

stoshhawg
12-27-2009, 08:27 PM
Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Jets. We need at least three of those teams to lose next week in order to make the playoffs. (And that's providing we take care of our own business.)

If texans lose we only need either ravens or jets to lose after that then we are in right? So a bronco win wouldn't matter at that point

Preacher
12-27-2009, 08:28 PM
So realistically we need BOTH the Texans and Jets to lose as those are BOTH winnable games for their division winning opponents. But then the hard part is hoping that either the Raiders upset the Ravens OR the Chiefs upset the Broncos considering the first two go our way? I would call that a long shot.

Oh well, at least I think we have a good shot at beating the phins, especially if Troy returns.

If ONLY we can miraculously sneek in there with Troy back playing, I think we are dangerous and could make a run at defending our title. What a shame.

No, our NEED is for Houston to lose to the Pats (likely). Then, we have to have EITHER the Broncos lose to Oakland (not likely) or the jets lose to Cinci, (very possible).

That is the basic for what needs to happen.

7willBheaven
12-27-2009, 08:35 PM
No, our NEED is for Houston to lose to the Pats (likely). Then, we have to have EITHER the Broncos lose to Oakland (not likely) or the jets lose to Cinci, (very possible).

That is the basic for what needs to happen.


What about the Ravens?

Ok so HOU looses, they are out. And lets say NYJ loose, they are out....and DEN beats the KC (and we win of course). If they Ravens win, they would get in...along with Denver. When there is a 3 or more way tie the tie breakers change. If it was just DEN and us head to head, yes we would win...but when it becomes a 3 way things change.

Dino 6 Rings
12-27-2009, 08:36 PM
I think in a 3 way between Denver Pittsburgh and Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Baltimore go to the playoffs

Dino 6 Rings
12-27-2009, 08:37 PM
See Baltimore gets the Tie Break as Division Leader over the Steelers so then they go against the Broncos and they won head to head so they are in, then you restart the process for the Steelers and Denver, defaulting to Head to Head as the first elliminator and that puts Pittsburgh in over Denver because they won the Head to Head.

7willBheaven
12-27-2009, 08:39 PM
I thought (and i swear i read this somewhere)...if there are 2 spots open...between 3 teams...the top 2 (based on the tie breakers) would get those 2 spots. Not that the best of the 3 get the highest spot and then the remaining 2 teams go head to head for the last spot.

Preacher
12-27-2009, 08:39 PM
What about the Ravens?

Ok so HOU looses, they are out. And lets say NYJ loose, they are out....and DEN beats the KC (and we win of course). If they Ravens win, they would get in...along with Denver. When there is a 3 or more way tie the tie breakers change. If it was just DEN and us head to head, yes we would win...but when it becomes a 3 way things change.

I think in a 3 way between Denver Pittsburgh and Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Baltimore go to the playoffs


Exactly. As I said somewhere else.

We lose out to the Ravens for the 5th seed. Then the Ravens defeat the Broncos for the 5th seed because of the TIe Breaker rules, since they won the head to head.

THEN, for the 6th seed, we win out over the Broncos because we have the tiebreaker (We beat them).

Mags87
12-27-2009, 08:47 PM
ok so here are the scenarios:

We win and:
1. Texans lose
2a. Jets lose
2b. Ravens lose

We win and Texans win:
1. Ravens Lose
2. Broncos lose
3. Jets Lose

so we def want a texans loss. cause thats the easy way about things. but if Houston wins, we need 3 losses to go our way.
this is how i understand it.

edit: if we win and all four of the teams mentioned lose and then Jax wins, we are 5 and Jax is 6. Jax loses, Denver gets 6 seed.

SteelCityMom
12-27-2009, 09:06 PM
we want all the other 8-7 teams to lose, and us to win, so their fans can do all this crap next sunday night and we can laugh at being the only 9-7 teams and they can argue over tiebreakers with 6 8-8 teams.


I definitely prefer this scenario lol.

Rick5895
12-28-2009, 07:34 PM
IMO this is what WILL happen
1. We will beat the fish

2. Ravens lose to Raiders, Jets lose to Cinci (Cinci laid an egg vs KC and will want to make up for that)

3. NE will easily handle the Texans.

That should give us the 5th seed. We will beat the bengals in the WC game and face INDI in the divisional game, WE WIN (that nonsense Indi pulled yesterday will bite them in the ass)

We will then beat SD in the AFC title game (Troy will be back and we have SD's number)

Us vs Eagles in SB.

Remember where you read this!!

Preacher
12-28-2009, 07:38 PM
No thanks.

I would prefer we meet the Pats* in the playoffs, for the simple reason that we have to meet them and beat them in the playoffs, after all our losses at the beginning of the decade.

Then, another game, we meet the Ravens in teh AFCCG again, this time in their stadium, and beat them again.

THAT would be the just about perfect as far as I am concerned.

Rick5895
12-28-2009, 07:42 PM
In my scenario Preacher , I dont think the Ratbirds make the playoffs. But I would love another shot at them. But I can not stand Rivers so anytime I can dream of the Steelers beating his whiny ass, I love it.....and 2 good friends of mine are chargers fans, and I love giving them grief when we beat them!, LOL

devilsdancefloor
12-28-2009, 07:45 PM
arg my head hurts.....

devilsdancefloor
12-28-2009, 07:46 PM
No thanks.

I would prefer we meet the Pats* in the playoffs, for the simple reason that we have to meet them and beat them in the playoffs, after all our losses at the beginning of the decade.

Then, another game, we meet the Ravens in teh AFCCG again, this time in their stadium, and beat them again.

THAT would be the just about perfect as far as I am concerned.

i like this

markymarc
12-29-2009, 10:19 AM
Just get in and have a healthy Troy would be the perfect scenario for me :tt02:

Bluedust
12-29-2009, 10:36 AM
remember how hard it was to stop Cribbs in the wildcat...well now we have the Dolphins and their wildcat...so its going to be very tough next week for sure...I can't believe how bad Miami played today...just ugly to get beat that bad by the freaking Texans.

They haven't really run the wildcat with Ronnie Brown out.

HughC
12-29-2009, 11:35 AM
I thought (and i swear i read this somewhere)...if there are 2 spots open...between 3 teams...the top 2 (based on the tie breakers) would get those 2 spots. Not that the best of the 3 get the highest spot and then the remaining 2 teams go head to head for the last spot.

No, not true. They use the tiebreakers to figure out who is in for each seed starting with the #1 seed, then start the process all over again from the beginning for the #2 seed, start all over for #3, etc., all the way to the #6 seed. Actually they keep going beyond that as well, for draft order.

SH-Rock
12-29-2009, 11:39 AM
Lets go Cinci, Lets go Pats, Lets go Oakland

HughC
12-29-2009, 12:54 PM
There's actually a slightly higher chance that the Steelers would play the Pats than the Bengals in the first round. Here are the six games on Sunday that will not only determine the 5th and 6th seed, but also all of the playoff pairings in the first round of the AFC playoffs:


Jacksonville at Cleveland
New England at Houston
Pittsburgh at Miami
Baltimore at Oakland
Kansas City at Denver
Cincinnati at New York Jets


Barring a tie in any of these games, there are a total of 64 unique scenarios with these six games; the Steelers make the playoffs in 14 of them and end up playing New England in nine of those 14 scenarios.


Steelers get the 5th seed with these teams winning:

Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals *
Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, Cin = Steelers at Bengals *
Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals *
Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *


Steelers get the 6th seed with these teams winning:

Jax, NE, Pit, Bal, KC, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
Jax, NE, Pit, Bal, Den, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
Jax, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
Jax, Hou, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals
Cle, NE, Pit, Bal, KC, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
Cle, NE, Pit, Bal, Den, Cin = Steelers at Patriots *
Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, KC, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
Cle, NE, Pit, Oak, Den, NYJ = Steelers at Patriots
Cle, Hou, Pit, Oak, KC, Cin = Steelers at Bengals


The games with an * are assuming that the Patriots win a tiebreaker with the Bengals for the #3 seed based on Strength of Victory. There are a couple of scenarios where that would not happen, but it is highly unlikely since about twelve different things would have to occur for that to happen.

cubanstogie
12-29-2009, 02:38 PM
Lets go Cinci, Lets go Pats, Lets go Oakland

unfortunately the oddsmakers don't see Cincy or the Patsies playing starters either. They have jets favored by 10, and Texans by 8 or so. I know, I know we put ourselves in this position but it still pisses me off these games don't really count for $hit.

GBMelBlount
12-29-2009, 03:56 PM
Although anything can happen, I would imagine we have oh, about a 3% chance (statistically) of making the playoffs. I guess we'll see.....

HughC
12-29-2009, 04:23 PM
Although anything can happen, I would imagine we have oh, about a 3% chance (statistically) of making the playoffs. I guess we'll see.....
Assuming each of those six games impacting the AFC playoff chance has an even chance of either team winning, it's actually just under 22% (21.875% to be exact.)

However, if Houston beats New England, then there are only two scenarios out of a possible 64 in which the Steelers make the playoffs - dropping the playoff chance to just over 3% (3.125% to be exact.)

Cincy losing to the Jets is bad too, but not as bad as New England losing to Houston. If the Jets win, there are four possible ways for the Steelers to still make the playoffs (a 6.25% chance.)

If both the Texans and the Jets win, the Steelers cannot make the playoffs.

GBMelBlount
12-29-2009, 04:52 PM
Thanks for the info Hugh.

I would imagine if all your stats could be reduced to 1 stat, which they probably can, I would still guess it's not much better than 2% or 3%. lol.

.....Although I am still feeling a little "homerish" right now. :chuckle:

stb_steeler
12-29-2009, 05:00 PM
IMO this is what WILL happen
1. We will beat the fish

2. Ravens lose to Raiders, Jets lose to Cinci (Cinci laid an egg vs KC and will want to make up for that)

3. NE will easily handle the Texans.

That should give us the 5th seed. We will beat the bengals in the WC game and face INDI in the divisional game, WE WIN (that nonsense Indi pulled yesterday will bite them in the ass)

We will then beat SD in the AFC title game (Troy will be back and we have SD's number)

Us vs Eagles in SB.

Remember where you read this!!
That would be awesome!!! but remember the last time they predicted a Pa. Super Bowl.....Philly fell short.:doh:

markymarc
12-30-2009, 11:37 AM
Lets go Cinci, Lets go Pats, Lets go Oakland

I second that :tt04: