blaze1984

12-27-2009, 10:11 PM

edited: now that pinnacle finally posted the money lines, i have much more exact calculations of our playoff chances. It started off at 13% or so when i first ran the numbers, with a math error we were down to 12%... and now that pinnacle posted their money lines, we're down to under 7%...

okay, so i've broken down the steelers playoff chances based on the math of each possible combo.... First things first, they just posted the point spreads for all the games (pinnaclesports.com is my source for info, they're the sharpest sportsbook on the net). Next, they haven't posted moneylines yet, so i took the approximate odds of victory based on moneylines of other games from previous weeks with approximately the same point spreads.

Other thoughts, the Jets and Texans being large favorites is a huge surprise to me. But i guess the Bengals / Patriots have very little to play for. Also, the Colts screwed us this week. Taking out the jets would've just about tripled our playoff odds. And if Miami didn't collapse in the first half against the Texans, we could've really improved our odds that way too. Anyways, hopes are pretty slim right now looking at it from a purely mathematical standpoint, but you never know...

Based on the early point spreads posted:

Ravens ML posted at -460 & 9.5 point favorites @ Oak (1/5.6 chance of losing or ~~18%)

Broncos ML posted at -610 & 12.5 point favorites vs. KC (1/7.1 chance of losing or ~~14%)

Jets ML posted at -485 & 8 point favorites vs. Cincinnati (1/5.85 chance of losing or ~~17%)

Texans ML posted at -385 & 7 point favorites vs. New England (1/4.85 chance of losing or ~~20.5%)

1) Steelers win @ Miami

2) One of the following

a. Jets Loss and Texans Loss -- 17% X 20.5% = 3.5%

b. Texans Win, Ravens Loss, Broncos Loss, Jets Loss -- 79.5% X 18% X 14% X 17% = 0.3%

c. Jets Win, Ravens Loss, Texans Loss -- 83% X 18% X 20.5% = 3%

6.8% chance to make the playoffs assuming we beat Miami... It's not looking good right now

Wow, i wish i hadn't actually calculated this...

okay, so i've broken down the steelers playoff chances based on the math of each possible combo.... First things first, they just posted the point spreads for all the games (pinnaclesports.com is my source for info, they're the sharpest sportsbook on the net). Next, they haven't posted moneylines yet, so i took the approximate odds of victory based on moneylines of other games from previous weeks with approximately the same point spreads.

Other thoughts, the Jets and Texans being large favorites is a huge surprise to me. But i guess the Bengals / Patriots have very little to play for. Also, the Colts screwed us this week. Taking out the jets would've just about tripled our playoff odds. And if Miami didn't collapse in the first half against the Texans, we could've really improved our odds that way too. Anyways, hopes are pretty slim right now looking at it from a purely mathematical standpoint, but you never know...

Based on the early point spreads posted:

Ravens ML posted at -460 & 9.5 point favorites @ Oak (1/5.6 chance of losing or ~~18%)

Broncos ML posted at -610 & 12.5 point favorites vs. KC (1/7.1 chance of losing or ~~14%)

Jets ML posted at -485 & 8 point favorites vs. Cincinnati (1/5.85 chance of losing or ~~17%)

Texans ML posted at -385 & 7 point favorites vs. New England (1/4.85 chance of losing or ~~20.5%)

1) Steelers win @ Miami

2) One of the following

a. Jets Loss and Texans Loss -- 17% X 20.5% = 3.5%

b. Texans Win, Ravens Loss, Broncos Loss, Jets Loss -- 79.5% X 18% X 14% X 17% = 0.3%

c. Jets Win, Ravens Loss, Texans Loss -- 83% X 18% X 20.5% = 3%

6.8% chance to make the playoffs assuming we beat Miami... It's not looking good right now

Wow, i wish i hadn't actually calculated this...