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View Full Version : Interesting look at trading up.


lamberts-lost-tooth
03-30-2010, 01:22 PM
In the upcoming draft we will have 10 picks

Round 1, Pick 18 (900 points)
Round 2, Pick 20 (380 points)
Round 3, Pick 18 (180 points)
Round 4, Pick 18 (62 points)
Round 5, Pick 20 (31 points)
Round 5, Pick 33 (25.8 points)
Round 5, Pick 35 (25 points)
Round 6, Pick 19 (16.2 points)
Round 7, Pick 18 (2 points)
Round 7, Pick 35 (2 points)

The thing that I find interesting is that to maximize the value on a trade up you really have to look at the differential in each picks value.

For instance: If we traded our two 5th round comp picks, (worth 50.8 points combined) we could get the 25th pick in the 4th round. If we were to add all three fifth round picks (worth 81.8 points)...the best we might get is to move up 9 picks to the #16 pick in the 4th round!!!

The thing that is interesting is that we see alot of posts about trading into the 1st ..2nd...and 3rd rounds...when in truth it would appear that real value lies in trading up into the early part of 4th and 5th rounds.

Thoughts?

GrizzlyDean
03-30-2010, 01:34 PM
I did not think we can trade comp picks I may have read what you said wrong.

lamberts-lost-tooth
03-30-2010, 02:11 PM
I did not think we can trade comp picks I may have read what you said wrong.

You are correct...you can not actually trade comp picks. I was attempting to show the value of trades without taking that into consideration. let me give a different scenerio that is not misleading.

Combining our 5th and 6th round picks move us up 27 slots.....yet adding out 4th round and 3rd round picks only raises us 14 slots.

Sorry for the confusion....

The point being, there is MUCH higher value in trading up into the 4th and 5th rounds as opposed to trading into the top of the draft.

jollyrob68
03-30-2010, 03:24 PM
If you can get into the 3rd or 4th you can get a quality player. I think you can get very good players in the 5th especially RB,FB,ILB, and Tweeners. Give up a 5th and 6st for a late 4th would be great or just enjoy snatching those who slipped into the 5th round.

MasterOfPuppets
03-30-2010, 03:35 PM
i posted some stats around here of the success rate of players that actually stick to the roster and contribute for each round since 2000. the percentages were so poor the steelers would be better of packaging the 4th, 5th,6th, and 7th picks every year and moving up in the 1st,2nd or 3rd. every year...:noidea:

lamberts-lost-tooth
03-30-2010, 03:42 PM
If you can get into the 3rd or 4th you can get a quality player. I think you can get very good players in the 5th especially RB,FB,ILB, and Tweeners. Give up a 5th and 6st for a late 4th would be great or just enjoy snatching those who slipped into the 5th round.

Exactly what I was thinking.

I see alot of value in trading into the bottom of the 4th....giving us a draft of:

Round 1, Pick 18
Round 2, Pick 20
Round 3, Pick 18
Round 4, Pick 18
Round 4, Pick 28
Round 5, Pick 33
Round 5, Pick 35
Round 7, Pick 18
Round 7, Pick 35

lamberts-lost-tooth
03-30-2010, 03:46 PM
i posted some stats around here of the success rate of players that actually stick to the roster and contribute for each round since 2000. the percentages were so poor the steelers would be better of packaging the 4th, 5th,6th, and 7th picks every year and moving up in the 1st,2nd or 3rd. every year...:noidea:

Not sure about those 2nd rounders...we seem to have a poor track record there!!!

Dylan
03-30-2010, 04:49 PM
Not sure about those 2nd rounders...we seem to have a poor track record there!!!

speaking of second rounders i noticed that Navarro Bowman's stock has dropped a good bit, what would you think if he fell to us in the second round?

tony hipchest
03-30-2010, 07:04 PM
steelmember had an excellent breakdown of all the scenarios in another thread-

There is no doubt in my mind that if the Steelers use all these picks, maybe only half would end up making a roster/PS spot. I agree that trading some of our later picks to move up in earlier rounds to field some better talent is the way to go. Realistically though, it wouldn't be a very big jump early, but enough to steal a guy they really like.

According to the trade value chart, using all these could yeild us...

rd4 #116 = 62
rd5 #151 = 31
rd6 #188 = 16
rd7 #225 = 2

Total = 111

About 2-3 spots in the 1st. From #18 to #16.
About 10 spots in the 2nd. From #52 to #42.
About 20 spots in the 3rd, moving us back into the end of the 2nd round. #82 to #62.
or basically equal to the first pick in round 4. Moving us from #116 to #97.

Even trading away all these, we would still end up with 6 picks.

:thumbsup:

any of these sounds like a great idea to me. personally i think we should already have plans in place to swap spots with san fransisco just to lessen the odds of someone undercutting us (like with revis).

for instance the 49ers could secretly covet mays like the patriots did mayo (pats dropped from 7th to 10th and still easilly landed him while saving about $4-5 million).

i think having the draft broken down into three days is a big advantage to the steelers who have hit home runs with their 1st round picks (and trades) but have come up significantly shorter in the 2nd and 3rd rounds).

the extra day will allow them to re-stack their board and spend a whole evening analyzing trade options and prospects who may have fallen out of the 1st round.