mesaSteeler
04-13-2010, 07:09 AM
FO's Barnwell: Steelers Weren't Looking For Value
4/12/2010 8:52 PM ET By JJ Cooper
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2010/04/12/fos-barnwell-steelers-werent-looking-for-value-in-dealing-hol/
In trying to gauge the reaction around the NFL to the Steelers-Jets' Santonio Holmes trade. I contacted Football Outsiders' managing editor Bill Barnwell for his thoughts. He gave his opinion on the trade, which is reproduced below.
When you heard Santonio Holmes for a fifth-round pick, what was your initial reaction?
My reaction was honestly something similar to what ended up coming out as the story -- that the Steelers wanted to get rid of Holmes at any cost, and that they offered him around to a few friendly teams and said 'yes' to the first offer they got. Certainly, I was under no delusions that the Steelers were looking to get value for Holmes, as I'm sure nobody else was.
I think what surprised me afterwards was reading -- whether it's true or false -- is that the Steelers did offer Holmes around to the majority of the league's teams, and a fifth-round pick was the best offer that they received. It seems unconscionable that, given what we know about Holmes, a team like St. Louis or Jacksonville wouldn't have offered a fourth-round pick to try and extract some value out of Holmes, even if it was only going to be for 12 games.
Holmes' finished 10th in DYAR last year and 11th in 2007. Where would you rank him among the NFL's receivers. Top 10? Top 20?
I'd put him a little below those rankings; I think, considering how good Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller is, his production is a little better than his actual true level of ability. I'd put him right around 25 or so. He's an excellent deep receiver, but he benefits from having so many effective targets around him, and hasn't had to fight through double coverage or excel at the intermediate routes that number-one receivers do.
That's my concern with him heading into New York. I'm sure some Jets fans see Holmes' numbers over the past few years, add them to the totals of the Jets' receivers from 2009, and start researching Super Bowl flights. I don't think it's that simple. To build an effective passing offense, you need a variety of players with different skill sets, and the example that comes to mind as an obviously flawed offense that seemed explosive at the time involves another Jets player -- Braylon Edwards. When the Browns acquired Donte' Stallworth before the 2008 season, they dropped in Stallworth as a replacement for Joe Jurevicius, with the idea that teams wouldn't be able to cope with the deep threats of Edwards, Stallworth, and Kellen Winslow heading up the seam.
The problem was that they had no intermediate possession receiver, which was the role that Jurevicius had filled very well in 2007. With no one operating underneath, teams just shadowed all the Browns' receivers deep and kept their safeties high, which prevented the receiving corps from making plays downfield. The Browns then tried turning Edwards into that possession receiver as the season went along, and it was a disaster -- it led to the huge drop numbers that became Edwards's trademark.
Now, while Edwards wasn't great after being traded to the Jets, he fit their offense well because he got to play across from Jerricho Cotchery, who is a similar sort of player to Jurevicius -- a good route-runner that's effective at the intermediate level. The Jets had all the players you want in an offense -- the possession guy, the deep threat, the athletic tight end, and even a burner from the slot (David Clowney).
The problem with Holmes is that he's an extremely similar player to Edwards. Their mix of strengths and weaknesses mean that they can't both start at the same time, which pushes Holmes into the slot. He can be a valuable player there, but he won't see the field -- or the ball -- frequently enough in the Jets' offense to accrue the sort of numbers Jets fans are expecting.
In thinking back, the Randy Moss Raiders-Patriots trade seemed to be the closest equivalent to this that I could think of as far as getting a premium receiver for a second (now third-day pick). Are there any other trades that strike you as similar?
I don't think even that trade is comparable; Moss was seen as a player that was past his prime. Holmes is a player that's entering his. The closest comparable to a situation like this is usually a player that's released for personal reasons -- someone like Antonio Bryant.
In Bryant's case that obviously worked out well for the Bucs. Can you think of a case where a team bought low and it didn't pay off? It sure seems like the worst case scenario is that the Jets will lose a fifth-round pick (no huge loss) in the unlikely case that Holmes ends up getting slapped with another suspension.
Honestly, I can't really think of one where the move didn't work out, although I'm sure there are examples out there.
4/12/2010 8:52 PM ET By JJ Cooper
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2010/04/12/fos-barnwell-steelers-werent-looking-for-value-in-dealing-hol/
In trying to gauge the reaction around the NFL to the Steelers-Jets' Santonio Holmes trade. I contacted Football Outsiders' managing editor Bill Barnwell for his thoughts. He gave his opinion on the trade, which is reproduced below.
When you heard Santonio Holmes for a fifth-round pick, what was your initial reaction?
My reaction was honestly something similar to what ended up coming out as the story -- that the Steelers wanted to get rid of Holmes at any cost, and that they offered him around to a few friendly teams and said 'yes' to the first offer they got. Certainly, I was under no delusions that the Steelers were looking to get value for Holmes, as I'm sure nobody else was.
I think what surprised me afterwards was reading -- whether it's true or false -- is that the Steelers did offer Holmes around to the majority of the league's teams, and a fifth-round pick was the best offer that they received. It seems unconscionable that, given what we know about Holmes, a team like St. Louis or Jacksonville wouldn't have offered a fourth-round pick to try and extract some value out of Holmes, even if it was only going to be for 12 games.
Holmes' finished 10th in DYAR last year and 11th in 2007. Where would you rank him among the NFL's receivers. Top 10? Top 20?
I'd put him a little below those rankings; I think, considering how good Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller is, his production is a little better than his actual true level of ability. I'd put him right around 25 or so. He's an excellent deep receiver, but he benefits from having so many effective targets around him, and hasn't had to fight through double coverage or excel at the intermediate routes that number-one receivers do.
That's my concern with him heading into New York. I'm sure some Jets fans see Holmes' numbers over the past few years, add them to the totals of the Jets' receivers from 2009, and start researching Super Bowl flights. I don't think it's that simple. To build an effective passing offense, you need a variety of players with different skill sets, and the example that comes to mind as an obviously flawed offense that seemed explosive at the time involves another Jets player -- Braylon Edwards. When the Browns acquired Donte' Stallworth before the 2008 season, they dropped in Stallworth as a replacement for Joe Jurevicius, with the idea that teams wouldn't be able to cope with the deep threats of Edwards, Stallworth, and Kellen Winslow heading up the seam.
The problem was that they had no intermediate possession receiver, which was the role that Jurevicius had filled very well in 2007. With no one operating underneath, teams just shadowed all the Browns' receivers deep and kept their safeties high, which prevented the receiving corps from making plays downfield. The Browns then tried turning Edwards into that possession receiver as the season went along, and it was a disaster -- it led to the huge drop numbers that became Edwards's trademark.
Now, while Edwards wasn't great after being traded to the Jets, he fit their offense well because he got to play across from Jerricho Cotchery, who is a similar sort of player to Jurevicius -- a good route-runner that's effective at the intermediate level. The Jets had all the players you want in an offense -- the possession guy, the deep threat, the athletic tight end, and even a burner from the slot (David Clowney).
The problem with Holmes is that he's an extremely similar player to Edwards. Their mix of strengths and weaknesses mean that they can't both start at the same time, which pushes Holmes into the slot. He can be a valuable player there, but he won't see the field -- or the ball -- frequently enough in the Jets' offense to accrue the sort of numbers Jets fans are expecting.
In thinking back, the Randy Moss Raiders-Patriots trade seemed to be the closest equivalent to this that I could think of as far as getting a premium receiver for a second (now third-day pick). Are there any other trades that strike you as similar?
I don't think even that trade is comparable; Moss was seen as a player that was past his prime. Holmes is a player that's entering his. The closest comparable to a situation like this is usually a player that's released for personal reasons -- someone like Antonio Bryant.
In Bryant's case that obviously worked out well for the Bucs. Can you think of a case where a team bought low and it didn't pay off? It sure seems like the worst case scenario is that the Jets will lose a fifth-round pick (no huge loss) in the unlikely case that Holmes ends up getting slapped with another suspension.
Honestly, I can't really think of one where the move didn't work out, although I'm sure there are examples out there.