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View Full Version : “Health Care”, the GDP, and Unemployment


Vincent
04-17-2010, 01:03 PM
I am no “expert” on these matters, so being confused in all the “discussion” of the realities we will live with resulting from “obamacare”, what does the Steeler Fever brain trust think will be the relationship between “Health Care”, the GDP, and unemployment?

We’re told that “health care” comprises 16% of the GDP, and that that constitutes the “crisis” we “have averted” with obamacare. OK. That raises some questions.

obamacare will “only “ cost us (depending on who’s blathering) around $1 Trillion a year. Does that mean obamacare reduces that $2.2 Trillion we spend on “health care” today to $1 Trillion a year?

If so, then obamacare will reduce the GDP by the corresponding $1.2 Trillion, or 7+%. Most economists define a recession as "two down quarters of GDP", some as a 1.5% rise in unemployment over 12 months. Regardless, there is a relationship between GDP and unemployment. Modern economists generally think that a 10% GDP downturn constitutes a depression.

So if obamacare takes 7+% out of the GDP, how many jobs does that cost us? What is the loss of tax revenue that results from the lost jobs? Does the 7+% plus the 2.4% we already lost in 2009 put us in a depression?

Just asking. :noidea:

MACH1
04-17-2010, 06:19 PM
Not sure.
All I know is it's not going to be good for small business. Bad for small business = less jobs = less revenue, bad economy.

But what do I know I'm just a dumb rube that just doesn't understand the greatness of the obaaaaama way.

Indo
04-17-2010, 08:57 PM
Add to that the fact that Medicare has cost 10 X (!) what it was projected to cost.

I'm predicting that Obamacare will, too...
write it down.

Godfather
04-17-2010, 09:18 PM
Well, not necessarily, The "cost" is only the money on the government's books. That's a bit of clever Enron accounting they used.

If the government takes $1 from me, it's $1 in taxes. If it gives you $1, it's $1 in spending. If it forces me to give that dollar to you directly, it's off the government's books even though the effect is identical.

When they say Obamacare will only "cost" $1 trillion, that's the government spending over a ten-year period. But it ignores the massive transfer from individuals to insurance companies created by the mandate, and the higher premiums caused by all the idiotic rules dictating the terms of the insurance contract. The real cost is much, much higher because most Americans will be left with less discretionary income and less access to doctors (which means they'll be sicker and less productive).