View Full Version : 2010 Projected Carries Glimpse

Galax Steeler
05-11-2010, 04:05 AM
The preparations for the 2010 season are in full gear. Initial rankings have been submitted, we’re having a mock draft on Monday (more on that later) and we’ve got projections on our brain.

Examining backfield committees is an interesting part of the projections. Here is my first-look projected carries for five teams. These may be a little different than the projections you’ll find in our upcoming magazine and will undoubtedly change as the offseason goes on. Rest assured that we’ll be back in a couple months with full and final carry projections for all 32 teams.

2009 carries by running backs: 533
2010 trend: With a year under Mark Sanchez’s belt, Santonio Holmes in the fold and Thomas Jones gone, the Jets figure to call less running plays.
2010 projection: 490

Shonn Greene: 305
LaDainian Tomlinson: 125
Joe McKnight: 50
Tony Richardson: 10

Greene will come off the field on all passing downs, but make no mistake that he is the feature back. The Jets will find out quickly how much they lost when they replaced Thomas Jones with Tomlinson, meaning Greene could even stay on the field in goal-line spots. McKnight’s first professional minicamp was a disaster, but he has a long time to get in shape and impress the coaches.

2009 carries by running backs: 377
2010 trend: The Steelers have promised to return to a more smash mouth, old-school style of football. With Ben Roethlisberger suspended for at least the first month, they’ll have to. The problem is that the offensive line is weak and they did little to provide depth behind Rashard Mendenhall.
2010 projection: 420

Rashard Mendenhall: 300
Jonathan Dwyer: 90
Mewelde Moore: 30

Mendenhall was so impressive last season that he even supplanted Moore as the third-down back down the stretch. ... It’s a little shady that Dwyer lasted until the sixth round in the draft because to me he looks like a stud. But teams passed on him over and over, so maybe there’s something going on (medical?).

2009 carries by running backs: 405
2010 trend: First off, the Broncos are abandoning their zone-blocking scheme for a power-blocking scheme. The change fits Knowshon Moreno’s downhill style better. With Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler gone, we’ll project a few more runs.
2010 projection: 415

Knowshown Moreno: 255
Correll Buckhalter: 150
J.J. Arrington: 10

Moreno averaged 15.4 carries a game last year vs. Buck’s 8.5. Moreno admitted to wearing down badly in the second half last season, so a stricter rotation could be in order. But Buckhalter is always hurt, canceling out any ideas of a smaller workload for Knowshon.

2009 carries by running backs: 349
2010 trend: Pete Carroll takes over and brings Jeremy Bates with him as his offensive coordinator. They would ideally run a balanced offense and aren’t afraid to use backs is specialized roles.
2010 projection: 375

LenDale White: 215
Justin Forsett: 120
Leon Washington: 40
* this projection reflects an educated guess that Julius Jones will be cut.

White is the early-down bruiser and is reportedly in tremendous shape. He'll be motivated by the opportunity for this many carries. Forsett should be able to hold off Washington because we’re skeptical about Washington’s true health.

2009 carries by running backs: 394
2010 trend: More responsibility should be placed on Tony Romo’s shoulders this year with an unlimited supply of weapons at his disposal.
2010 projection: 390

Felix Jones: 210
Marion Barber: 125
Tashard Choice: 55