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mesaSteeler
01-19-2011, 07:04 PM
Why it will be a Steelers-Packers matchup in Super Bowl XLV
Kerry J. Byrnes COLD HARD FOOTBALL FACTS

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/01/19/steelers-packers-super-bowl/index.html#ixzz1BWrjXUmY

The Packers will face the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV if things go as I expect, setting up a first-of-its-kind meeting for an NFL championship between the two marquee NFL franchises. (If this happens it's going interesting. The Cheese head fan base is almost as fanatic as we are. - mesa)

Here are four Cold, Hard Football Facts on why the Packers will maul the Bears, and four more on why the Steelers will fly past the Jets:

GREEN BAY

1. Aaron Rodgers is about to steal the national spotlight. Green Bay's quarterback quietly entered the record books midseason as the most efficient passer in NFL history (98.4 career passer rating). But quarterbacks earn their reputations in the playoffs, and Rodgers is taking it to the next level here in the 2010 postseason.

In three career playoff games, he's completed 77 of 105 passes (73.3%) for 969 yards, 10 TD, 1 INT and a 129.4 passer rating. If not for the fact his defense got torched last by year Kurt Warner and the Cardinals in a wild-card shootout for the ages (a 51-45 Arizona win), there's no telling what his numbers might look like.

Rodgers was virtually unstoppable last week against the Falcons (366 yards, 3 TD passes, 1 TD run, 136.8 rating). The record for highest career postseason passer rating (min. 150 attempts), by the way, is currently held by Green Bay legend Bart Starr (104.3). Barring a complete reversal of fortunes, Rodgers will soon blow past Starr's record and will easily outgun Jay Cutler on Sunday.

2. The NFL is all about establishing air superiority, and nobody does it better than the Packers. The Cold, Hard Football Facts have long held that winning in the NFL is all about dominance in the passing game.

To demonstrate the importance of air superiority, we look at Passer Rating Differential. You simply subtract a team's Defensive Passer Rating from its Offensive Passer Rating. The result proves a lot about a team's chances for postseason success.

The average NFL champion, dating all the way back to 1940, was +27.4 in Passer Rating Differential (82.1 to 54.7). The Packers this year were No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential, at +31.7 (98.9 to 67.2).

In other words, the Pack moved the ball effectively through the air on offense, as evidenced by Rodgers' incredible numbers, and made life extremely tough for opposing passers. Green Bay was No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating (67.2), our preferred measuring of measuring pass defense.

Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler knows how tough it is to pass against the Pack: he completed 56 percent of his passes with 1 TD, 3 INT and a dismal 59.5 passer rating in two games.

Green Bay will win Sunday because it'll dominate the battle of passing efficiency.

3. Clay Matthews & Co. will meet for tea in the Chicago backfield. The Packers were also No. 1 in the NFL this year at forcing what ColdHardFootballFacts.com calls Negative Pass Plays (sacks and INTs). Green Bay forced a Negative Pass Play on 12.2 percent of opposing dropbacks this year.

That ability to pressure passers sets up a total mismatch against a Chicago offense that suffered a Negative Pass Play more often than any other team in football: nearly 15 percent of Jay Cutler's dropbacks ended with a sack or INT. He was sacked a league-high 52 times. Green Bay sacked Cutler nine times and nabbed three picks in two games this year.

The Packers will win Sunday because they'll swarm all over Cutler in the Chicago backfield and force him onto the ground and into several errant passes.

4. The Packers are better against Quality Teams. We track how each team performs against opponents with winning records, or what we call Quality Teams. It helps us separate teams who faced tough competition from those who beat up weak opponents.

Green Bay is easily the NFC's best team in this indicator: an impressive 6-3 vs. Quality Teams, including their playoff wins over Philadelphia and Atlanta. They outscored these nine opponents by an average of 24.6 to 16.4 PPG -- far and away the best mark in the NFC.

Green Bay failed to show up for a lot of games this year, including losses to the bad Redskins, Dolphins and Lions. But against Quality competition, they were better than any team in the NFC. They'll be better than the Bears on Sunday.

Pittsburgh

1. Ben Roethlisberger is the most underrated quarterback in the game today. How many Super Bowls does Big Ben have to win before he joins the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks in the eyes of the public?

Maybe three will do it.

Clearly, Roethlisberger's reputation has taken a hit over the years because of a variety of off-field incidents. But on the field, he's a truly underappreciated performer. For example, we like looking at average per pass attempt as a way to measure quarterbacks.

Here's why: Quarterbacks with high averages per attempt win a lot of games, even if they don't draw oohs and ahhs from fans obsessed with big fantasy-friendly volume numbers. And Big Ben is a perfect example. He's one of just five passers in history who have averaged more than 8.0 YPA in their career (8.04).

In others words, he's historically effective at getting the ball down field. It may not look pretty. His style may be unorthodox. But none of the game's elite quarterbacks -- Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, whoever -- get the ball down the field better than Big Ben.

Oh, by the way, Roethlisberger is No. 8 all time in career passer rating (92.5) -- right behind the prolific Kurt Warner (93.7) and ahead of some guy named Joe Montana (92.3).

The Steelers will win Sunday because Big Ben will make big plays down the field, no matter how unorthodox it may look.

2. It's all about the Defensive Hogs. ColdHardFootballFacts.com ranks each defensive front on what we call the Defensive Hog Index. You should take a look at the indicator, because It has an incredibly high correlation to postseason success.

In fact, teams better on the Defensive Hog Index are 30-11 in postseason play since we introduced it in 2007. Teams with the better defensive front were a perfect 4-0 last week, by the way.

The 2007 Giants topped the DHI and won the Super Bowl. The 2008 Steelers topped the DHI and won the Super Bowl. The 2010 Steelers topped the DHI again this year. And they delivered a Defensive Hog tour de force against Baltimore last week. They pressured Joe Flacco into five sacks and an interception, held the Ravens to a dismal 1.9 YPA on the ground and allowed Baltimore to convert just 5 of 13 attempts on third and fourth downs.

Pittsburgh will win Sunday because it'll beat the New York offense at the point of attack.

3 . Mike Tomlin and Dick LeBeau are the NFL's best 1-2 coaching punch. In true Pittsburgh tradition, the Rooneys in 2007 handed the keys to the organization to a very young man (34 at the time) who had never been a head coach in the NFL.

But Mike Tomlin is proving Pittsburgh prophetic. He's still one of the youngest coaches in all of sports (38), already has one Super Bowl victory under his belt and sports a nifty 4-1 playoff record. This is his third postseason trip in four years at the helm.

One of Tomlin's first decisions was also his smartest: he kept longtime defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, when he could have cleaned house in an effort to put his own stamp on the organization. The Steelers have finished No. 1 or No. 2 in scoring defense in three of Tomlin and LeBeau's four seasons together.

In fact, since the glory days of the Steel Curtain, only the 2001 Steelers (13.3 PPG) surrendered fewer points than Tomlin-LeBeau's Super Bowl champion 2008 Steelers (13.9 PPG allowed) and 2010 Steelers (14.5 PPG).

Rex Ryan is the story du jour in the NFL. But Pittsburgh will win Sunday because it has the best 1-2 coaching tandem in football.

4. The Pittsburgh roster is filled with game-breaking play-makers. The Steelers are not the prettiest team in football. And Pittsburgh fans certainly like it that way. But the Steelers have game-breaking playmakers all over the field -- beyond Roethlisberger and Polamalu.

Safety Ryan Clark produced a pair of huge game-changing big plays in the third quarter of the Ravens game last week, forcing two turnovers that led to Pittsburgh touchdowns.

James Harrison proved his playmaking chops back in the 2008 championship season. He was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year and his 100-yard pick-six against Kurt Warner was the biggest play of Super Bowl XLIII. He brought the heat again on Sunday, sacking Flacco three times.

Receiver Mike Wallace, meanwhile, might be the best "Big Play" receiver in football today. Wallace this year became just the fifth player since the AFL-NFL merger to catch 60 or more passes and average 21.0 yards or more per reception. Meanwhile, unheralded rookie receiver Antonio Brown entered Pittsburgh's playmaking pantheon with his 58-yard reception on 3rd and 19 against Baltimore on Sunday.

These aren't isolated incidents. ColdHardFootballFacts.com tracks each team's Big Play capabilities on what we call, conveniently enough, the Big Play Index. Pittsburgh finished second on the indicator, at +28. The Jets, by the way, were No. 3 at +23. (Of course, New England was No. 1 this year with a bullet (+41) and that advantage didn't help them last week.)

Pittsburgh will win Sunday because it will make more big plays than the Jets.

pete74
01-19-2011, 07:09 PM
i would much rather plat the bears then aaron rodgers but green bay is my 2nd best team soley because its the smallest market and the only nfl team without an owner.

mesaSteeler
01-19-2011, 07:13 PM
i would much rather plat the bears then aaron rodgers but green bay is my 2nd best team soley because its the smallest market and the only nfl team without an owner.

I agree, Green Bay is my favorite NFC team and their fans are as passionate as we are. Also Green is playing hot right now.

pete74
01-19-2011, 07:18 PM
I agree, Green Bay is my favorite NFC team and their fans are as passionate as we are. Also Green is playing hot right now.

i agree and think thats another reason i always have liked them. there fans are extremly passoniate. my aunt lives there and i remember her telling me when i was younger that all the stores would close up during the games and you wouldnt see a single person outside

UMBC79
01-19-2011, 07:19 PM
The Steelers would have an easier game in the Super Bowl if Chicago wins. Rodgers would be passing under ideal conditions in warm Dallas during the Super Bowl if Green Bay wins. The Steelers are best at stuffing the run, but Green Bay doesn't even try to run the ball very much.

Steelboy84
01-19-2011, 07:23 PM
Bears would be a better matchup for us. So go Bears.

Jetsfan115
01-19-2011, 07:24 PM
Why it won't be a steelers packers superbowl
1) because the jets will beat the steelers
2) no other point needed

sarahpalinhater
01-19-2011, 07:24 PM
I agree, Green Bay is my favorite NFC team and their fans are as passionate as we are. Also Green is playing hot right now.



Why ? Green Bay was two easy missed David Acker FG away from being bounced in the first round. They didn't dominate Philly. And Atlanta was an overrated team all season. Green Bay beating them was not a surprise to most. The Bears have the defense, and the experience in playing the Packers that this will not be a Blow out. And almost every close game the Packers have played this season that they won, they could have easily lost as well. I don't mind if we play the Packers cause I do agree that alot of the media is in love with Rodgers and the team, and they might have us as the underdog. But I still am picking the Bears over them.

UMBC79
01-19-2011, 07:29 PM
I expected the Packers to beat the Falcons but the way they blew them out makes me think they will handle the Bears, unless cold windy weather in Chicago hampers Rodgers' passing. The Pack is a hot team and Rodgers is at the top of his game.

mesaSteeler
01-19-2011, 07:35 PM
Why it won't be a steelers packers superbowl
1) because the jets will beat the steelers
2) no other point needed

Hmmm you must be hanging with Tone. What's he smoking these days?

4xSBChamps
01-19-2011, 07:38 PM
The Steelers would have an easier game in the Super Bowl if Chicago wins. Rodgers would be passing under ideal conditions in warm Dallas during the Super Bowl if Green Bay wins. The Steelers are best at stuffing the run, but Green Bay doesn't even try to run the ball very much.

+ tax... I'd think that if the Bears claim the Halas Trophy, Jeff George's illegitimate son (aka - Jake Cutler) might crack under the pressure of either the Pittsburgh or Jet defense, although the Pack is my favorite NFC franchise

mcg24
01-19-2011, 07:45 PM
Why it won't be a steelers packers superbowl
1) because the jets will beat the steelers
2) no other point needed

You should write articles instead of the guy who wrote the article the OP posted. Yours had a lot more facts and used more common sense. Wait....

pete74
01-19-2011, 07:47 PM
Why ? Green Bay was two easy missed David Acker FG away from being bounced in the first round. They didn't dominate Philly. And Atlanta was an overrated team all season. Green Bay beating them was not a surprise to most. The Bears have the defense, and the experience in playing the Packers that this will not be a Blow out. And almost every close game the Packers have played this season that they won, they could have easily lost as well. I don't mind if we play the Packers cause I do agree that alot of the media is in love with Rodgers and the team, and they might have us as the underdog. But I still am picking the Bears over them.

what????? Philly is a very good team. as for close games, thats how we won our last super bowl.

sarahpalinhater
01-19-2011, 07:50 PM
what????? Philly is a very good team. as for close games, thats how we won our last super bowl.

Yes, but the difference being..WE WON IT! 89 Yds in under 2 minutes with Ben only having one WR to work with, and making the greatest touch pass ever by a QB.
As where the Eagles GAVE that W to the Packers...they didn't Win it.

Fire Arians
01-19-2011, 08:17 PM
rodgers is one of the few qb's I like, he's a real football player like ben, none one of those sissy quarterbacks

MACH1
01-19-2011, 08:28 PM
Hmmm you must be hanging with Tone. What's he smoking these days?

http://www.freelogovector.com/gallery/z/Zig%20Zag%20logo.jpg

Jetsfan115
01-19-2011, 09:37 PM
Hmmm you must be hanging with Tone. What's he smoking these days?

nah i had a few drinks with big ben, then i don't remember much else and i woke up with a sore ass and a toilet bowl seat mark on my face

SH-Rock
01-19-2011, 11:56 PM
nah i had a few drinks with big ben, then i don't remember much else and i woke up with a sore ass and a toilet bowl seat mark on my face
Interestingly enough, I bet you would've made the same joke if Holmes was still on our team. But no matter how much trash talk we say, it isn't going to stop the other side. Let's wait till game day and see who has the last laugh.

Jetsfan115
01-20-2011, 01:14 AM
Interestingly enough, I bet you would've made the same joke if Holmes was still on our team. But no matter how much trash talk we say, it isn't going to stop the other side. Let's wait till game day and see who has the last laugh.

of course. nothing wrong with poking a little fun at your opponent. I cant wait until game day. in all honesty (no offense) i was nervous for the colts game, scared of the pats game, but i feel pretty good about this one. jets have momentum right now and are on a hot streak

http://www.bangcartoon.com/2010/Channel_surfing_ten.htm

"and she should tell me that while i'm banging her on the toilet" :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

and one for troy

http://www.bangcartoon.com/2010/meanwhile9.htm

Buddha Bus
01-20-2011, 01:16 AM
nah i had a few drinks with big ben, then i don't remember much else and i woke up with a sore ass and a toilet bowl seat mark on my face

That'll be the same feeling the Jets will have on Monday morning. :flap: :fingers:

Polamalu43Defense!
01-20-2011, 03:19 AM
Yes, I know that we also need to win this weekend to even consider who to play in the SB but the NFC championship game is before the Steelers and the Jets and I was wondering what everyone thinks? I'm sure most of you will be watching the game and I'm just curious to hear how many ppl say the Bears at first thought. This would however come scary to me as in order for the Bears to get there, they would have to defeat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. A task a lot of teams couldn't handle this year. #2 in run defense this year, to US!!! ANDDDDDDDD Cutler is playing lights out right now. Don't give me that well he played the Seahawks BS either because the Seahawks weren't too shabby the last couple games beating the Rams and Saints themselves. So who do you wanna see win the NFC championship in a potential SB matchup? Bears, or Packers??? :tt:

Acerinox
01-20-2011, 03:40 AM
I think the best scenario would be for the Bears to bang the crap out of the Pack (like they did the hawks) and then lose.
So the Pack come in with no running backs etc etc.
There is, of course, no real chance of this - but you did ask what I want!

Edit: Come to think of it, this Bears team has to be about the most under-the-radar team in the playoffs EVER. I just checked, they are the outsiders to win it all - at 5-1 or worse.
Think about all the blah blah blah about the teams who could get it done - Pats, Jets, Pack, Falcons, Ravens even yes the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Bears haven't even really played a playoff game yet - but they're just 2 wins away! This scares me a little.

SH-Rock
01-20-2011, 03:44 AM
Packers, so everyone can get off their dicks if they lose. If they win, kudos to Packers.

pancake
01-20-2011, 03:55 AM
I would rather face Cutler than Rodgers.

ricardisimo
01-20-2011, 04:28 AM
I still say we should be asking for the best team. I wanted to play the Patriots this week for that reason, but I'm starting to think maybe the Patriots aren't really all that good if you have an OC with half a brain who knows how to play keepaway (not us, in other words.) Maybe we are playing the better team this week.

I would have to say that the Packers look stronger than the Bears, so I'd want Green Bay in the Super Bowl (assuming we get there.) Playing anything less than the best teams cheapens the proceedings, IMHO.

MattsMe
01-20-2011, 04:36 AM
I still say we should be asking for the best team. I wanted to play the Patriots this week for that reason, but I'm starting to think maybe the Patriots aren't really all that good if you have an OC with half a brain who knows how to play keepaway (not us, in other words.) Maybe we are playing the better team this week.

I would have to say that the Packers look stronger than the Bears, so I'd want Green Bay in the Super Bowl (assuming we get there.) Playing anything less than the best teams cheapens the proceedings, IMHO.

:stupid: I mean, um... :iagree:

I wanted the Patriots* too for the same reason. But there's also the argument that the best team is the one who wins the game. Something along the lines of you are what your record says you are, if I remember correctly.

If the Bears win, I guess that makes them the best the NFC has to offer, at least according to the current playoff format.

Last time I checked though, we still have to feet the Jets, I mean beat the Jets, first.

scsteeler
01-20-2011, 04:42 AM
Getting Ahead of ourselves!!!! I don't care who comes from the NFC so long as they are playing the Steelers. We need to worried about the Sunday before we pack our bags for Dallas.

SH-Rock
01-20-2011, 05:29 AM
I think we're suffering from the 2009 Steelers Syndrome.

grward
01-20-2011, 08:03 AM
Dumb question. We need to GET to the Super Bowl before we start hand selecting who to play. :coffee:

Curtain_of_Steel
01-20-2011, 08:31 AM
Just want the invite to the big dance.

If there is a gun to my head. Than I think the Packers, and only because if we ever kick it to Hester he will score on us every time.

The game will be 56-49

Cutler 6 interceptions

Hester 8 TD's. LOL

Although I like the Packers unlike my feelings for the JETS, I'm tired of hearing how Rodgers is so clutch, great etc. He backed into the playoffs because the team didn't perform.

Third Rail
01-20-2011, 10:55 AM
Strangely, Cutler has beaten us twice (with inferior Bears and Broncos teams), whereas we played Rodgers (whose team last year was even better than they are now, and we were clearly worse than we are this year) and we beat him. So it could really go either way.

fer522
01-20-2011, 11:08 AM
:doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh: :doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh::doh:

Jetsfan115
01-20-2011, 11:18 AM
Yes, I know that we also need to win this weekend to even consider who to play in the SB but the NFC championship game is before the Steelers and the Jets and I was wondering what everyone thinks? I'm sure most of you will be watching the game and I'm just curious to hear how many ppl say the Bears at first thought. This would however come scary to me as in order for the Bears to get there, they would have to defeat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. A task a lot of teams couldn't handle this year. #2 in run defense this year, to US!!! ANDDDDDDDD Cutler is playing lights out right now. Don't give me that well he played the Seahawks BS either because the Seahawks weren't too shabby the last couple games beating the Rams and Saints themselves. So who do you wanna see win the NFC championship in a potential SB matchup? Bears, or Packers??? :tt:

how about worrying about making it first? lol

with that said I think GB is better then Chicago so i'd rather play Chi

ETL
01-20-2011, 11:21 AM
I still say we should be asking for the best team. I wanted to play the Patriots this week for that reason, but I'm starting to think maybe the Patriots aren't really all that good if you have an OC with half a brain who knows how to play keepaway (not us, in other words.) Maybe we are playing the better team this week.

I would have to say that the Packers look stronger than the Bears, so I'd want Green Bay in the Super Bowl (assuming we get there.) Playing anything less than the best teams cheapens the proceedings, IMHO.

Why should we ask for the best team? Does the NFL give extra draft picks if we beat "better" teams along the way?

The goal is to win the Super Bowl. If we do that by beating "weak" teams by 1 point, then that's fine with me. This "bring on the best team" is something that only fans WHO DON'T PLAY IN THE ACTUAL GAME talk about so they can brag more or rub in the faces of fellow fans. If you need the Steelers to defend your sports-esteem by taking the hardest road possible, you need some help.

SteelersLady
01-20-2011, 11:48 AM
i agree and think thats another reason i always have liked them. there fans are extremly passoniate. my aunt lives there and i remember her telling me when i was younger that all the stores would close up during the games and you wouldnt see a single person outside

That's right, some of the most dedicated fans are Steelers and Packers fans. And I've heard so many great memories from their fans, and from my passionate Steelers peeps.

caseyviator
01-20-2011, 02:02 PM
That'll be the same feeling the Jets will have on Monday morning. :flap: :fingers:

hahahha thats f in funny i almost fell n the floor on that one great comeback

steelers 37 jets jets jets 23 awwwww that toilet seats gona get hammered on n probabaly get broken in half by that defense...poor sachoke between our defense and him ahhahahhah

trixs are for kids jet fans