PDA

View Full Version : Am I the only one who’s surprised Green Bay is favored?


mesaSteeler
01-25-2011, 09:50 PM
Mark Bradley
Am I the only one who’s surprised Green Bay is favored?
http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2011/01/25/am-i-the-only-one-whos-surprised-green-bay-is-favored/
3:02 pm January 25, 2011, by Mark Bradley
Seriously, do you really want to bet against these guys? (AP photo)

Seriously now: Do you really want to bet against these guys? (AP photo)

The AFC champ has won nine of the past 13 Super Bowls. Pittsburgh was the No. 2 seed in the AFC, going 12-4. Pittsburgh has won two of the past five Super Bowls, and now, facing a wild-card qualifier that won two fewer games this season, Pittsburgh is …

A 2 1/2-point underdog.

Not much surprises me anymore, but this did. Not that I don’t think the Packers are good — Arthur Blank and I witnessed firsthand just how good they can be — but because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot, and that’s the type of team that tends to be given the benefit of most doubts. (Not that I have doubts about the Steelers. Saw them beat the Falcons, too — without their starting quarterback.)

I know Green Bay is the flavor of the month. I know it has beaten the Nos. 3, 1 and 2 seeds in the NFC en route to Super Bowl XLV. But still: Favored over Pittsburgh?

I also know that there’s precedent for a No. 6 seed being favored in the Super Bowl: The Steelers were against Seattle, which was the NFC’s top seed, six years ago. And I know, too, that a betting line isn’t so much a prediction on the game as it is an estimate of how the public will wager. (The perfect line is one that never moves, meaning that an equal amount is bet on both teams.) I know all of that stuff. And still I don’t get this one.

Who should be favored?

* Green Bay.
* Pittsburgh.

View Results
Loading ... Loading ...

Maybe I’m just being obtuse. It wouldn’t be the first time. I was surprised the Packers wound up only a 1-point underdog against the Falcons, who were playing at home and who were 13-3 and who’d already beaten Green Bay. (I was less surprised the Packers were favored over the Bears.)

Obviously some folks with money know what they’re doing. And I could see Green Bay being favored over the Jets. But it’s not playing the Jets. It’s playing the Steelers, and the Steelers are really good.

That said … the Super Bowl line can be tricky. The Broncos, who were 10-4-1, were favored over the Redskins, who were 11-4, back in January 1988. (Washington won 42-10.) The Raiders, who were 11-5, were favored over the Buccaneers, who were 12-4, in 2003. (Tampa Bay won 48-21.) Heck, the team widely regarded as the NFL’s greatest ever — the unbeaten Dolphins of 1972 — was only a 1-point favorite over the 11-3 Redskins in Super Bowl VII.

That said … I still don’t get this one. Maybe you do. If so, I’d appreciate it if you could explain to me.

By Mark Bradley

gbpacker40
01-25-2011, 10:14 PM
Its about the money gamblers toss on the game and for who.....they move the line to get more money tossed onto the game. Its not so much about on the field product as it is the gamblers.

dffhogs
01-25-2011, 10:56 PM
The line came out -3.5

My local would not take the bet....:(

stlrtruck
01-25-2011, 11:55 PM
nope, not surprised at all.

OX1947
01-25-2011, 11:59 PM
Actually I am, I cat figure out how.

Kanata-Steeler
01-26-2011, 12:17 AM
...because this Superbowl is gonna be a "Gamblers Paradise" - and I sure don't mean for the poor slob throwing his/her money away.

lionslicer
01-26-2011, 12:38 AM
I really don't see how you're surprised. The way the Steelers played in the 2nd half against the Jets... Packers had a rough game against the Bears, but they still played constant through the whole game. I mean if I was looking at this statistically, it would seem the Steelers aren't consistant and the Packers are, so chances are the Packers would win.

ZoneBlitzer
01-26-2011, 12:38 AM
Nope. Not surprised at all. They're playing better football.

steeltheone
01-26-2011, 12:45 AM
Yes i am....But i love it!

MACH1
01-26-2011, 01:06 AM
The one and only reason........John Kuhn.

OX1947
01-26-2011, 01:34 AM
I'll tell you this, the majority are on the Packers nuts. I do not know if it is the Packers or the Patriots. Same feelings I got before the Ravens and Jets games. I think the Super Bowl is due a blow out, and I think the Steelers need one.

El Nino
01-26-2011, 01:57 AM
I'll tell you this, the majority are on the Packers nuts. I do not know if it is the Packers or the Patriots. Same feelings I got before the Ravens and Jets games. I think the Super Bowl is due a blow out, and I think the Steelers need one.

everybody wants to see us lose. a huge chunk of the nfl fans are old bandwagon dallas and 49er fans who would hate nothing more than to see us win 2 more lombardis than them

scsteeler
01-26-2011, 02:05 AM
I am not surprised we are the underdogs I would be surprised if they had us as the favorite. Most of Non-Steeler Fans do not want to see us win another SB. Not Saying the Packers are not a good team but they only put up 14 points on offense against the Bears & had the 3rd Sting QB not made 3rd string mistakes the Steelers could very well be playing the Bears instead of the Packers.

I like the fact we are not favored to win which gives the Team something to come in and prove that they are the better team.

I Love it myself.

tanda10506
01-26-2011, 12:45 PM
On the obvious side of things you have a #2(Steelers) seed playing a #6. The #2 team has won 2 SB's recently and arguably one of the best QB's in the league. So you would think it would be the Steelers as the favirotes. But EVERYBODY is up Rodgers ass right now and a lot of people don't like the Steelers, so I guess it's not too surprising.

TRH
01-26-2011, 12:55 PM
not surprised at all either. Them and aaron rogers are the current "media darlings"

iloveplywood
01-26-2011, 01:17 PM
Packer fan here and I'm surprised we're favored. All the Packer fans watching Sunday's games with me assumed that the Pack would be slight underdogs to the Steelers.

The Packers definitely get a lot of hype -- and a lot of it is deserved, but there's a reason they lost six games this year. On the flip side the Packers have never been down by more than seven all year so I doubt it will be a blowout. Anyway, the Steelers have a great team and I peg them as a slight favorite going into this game.

saveus1011
01-26-2011, 01:18 PM
Honestly, I'm glad we're the 'dogs. Hell, we were going into the season, and look at how Tomlin got us ready for that.

Mavajo
01-26-2011, 02:01 PM
Packer fan here. I was surprised we were favored as well. I expected the Steelers to be narrowly favored, mainly due to the fact that you guys have been here before. As others have mentioned, too, the betting lines are largely affected by the bets they expect to receive - the line isn't totally determined by what Vegas thinks will be the outcome of the game. That said, here are some factors for why the Packers may be favored:

Despite losing 6 games, we were consistently competitive. We never once got blown out, and never trailed the entire year by more than 7 points (our biggest loss was 4 points). That's pretty impressive - 19 games, and never trailed by more than a single score? Tough.

Also, you guys point out our poor second half against the Bears. You guys weren't exactly the Steel Curtain in the second half against the Jets either. One key difference: You were at home, in conditions you're built for. We were on the road, in our toughest divisional rivals own house, in conditions that are extremely tough for our team and neutralize our big speed advantage. Now, I'm sure you'll say "3rd string quarterback!" Fair enough. I'm sure you'll scoff at this, but a mobile QB that you didn't prepare for can be very dangerous - and that's exactly what Hanie is. The defense knew nothing about him and didn't know what to expect - they had spent some prep on Collins (the Bears 2nd stringer), but spent no time on Hanie. So it's not exactly smart money to judge the defense based on that. When Vick came in unexpectedly in Week 1, he burned us big and almost beat us. A lot of people used that as an indicment against our D. Remind me - how'd he do when we faced him again in the divisional round of the playoffs? Yeah, tha't's right. It's a whole 'nother game when you're prepared for the guy you're facing.

The Packers D is really, really damn good. We were second in the NFL in sacks (one less than Pittsburgh) in the regular season and have 10 so far in the playoffs. Behind them, our secondary is arguably the best in the NFL. We had 24 INTs (Pitt had 21) and held opposing QBs to an NFL-best 67.2 passer rating (Pitt was 2nd with 73.1). Your D is better against the run, but ours is better against the pass. Both teams get similar pressure on the quarterback, but the Packers are different from the Steelers in that the Packers get lots of pressure from our defensive line - you guys generally have to blitz more. Neither team has a very good offensive line, but with Pouncey going down and possibly not playing, that gives an edge to the Packers. But don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not bragging - both offensive lines are arguably the weakest links on their respective teams.

However, beyond all that, probably the biggest reason the Packers are favored is: the game is in a dome. The Packers offense and defense are extremely fast and athletic. I'm not taking anything away from your guys - the Steelers are a phenomenal team as well. But playing in a dome benefits the Packers more than the Steelers.

Regardless, this is a fantastic match up. I think the Packers will win, but I certainly wouldn't bet money on it. Two excellent teams. The Packers and Steelers took different roads to this game, but I think there's a very good case to be made that the genuinely are the best teams from their conferences. I really think the matchup in the passing games will be the decisive factor, and I believe we have the edge there. You guys will stone our run game, but that's not really a deterrent for the Packers - we make no illusions about trying to win with the run game. The Packers receivers are extremely talented - if the Packers go 4 or 5 wide and spread your defense out, and the Steelers are forced to answer by doing to their nickle or dime formations, then the Packers have a big advantage. Our #3 and #4 receivers are much better than your #3 and #4 corners, and if you're in the nickle/dime, then that means one or two of your very dangerous and talented linebackers will be on the sideline.

I think the Packers have the edge in the secondary and at wide receiver. But I think the Steelers have the edge at linebacker and running back. If it turns into a passing game, I think the Packers win. If it turns into a grind-it-out, I think the Steelers have the edge. Being that the game's being played in a dome, I think the odds are tilted to this game going more aerial than to the ground. But who knows - that's why we play the game!

PackAttack
01-26-2011, 02:16 PM
I too am surprised Packers would be favorites. Steelers look like a more well-rounded team. I think it's just buying into the hype.
Personally i would feel a lot more confident about our chances if the Packers had buried the Bears underneath Soldier Field last week. But alas, the Bears always play us tough, or is it that we always play like crap there?
I'm not sure.

Anyway, this game and these Steelers look more like the Falcons than the Bears so i'm hoping for a repeat performance from the Pack!

Steelrule
01-26-2011, 02:22 PM
We're DOOMED! Why bother playing? It's over, you can all go home now. Please, guys that probably never set foot one on the field as a player are setting a line for betting. Who cares? Like Packer fan said, "that's why we play the game."

I've ordered my Steelers M&M's, my Wise Potato Chips, I'm set.

I think part of this is that people don't want to see us win another (especially Dallas IN Dallas). I think, unfortunately, Ben's "problems" have cast a shadow on the organization and people don't want to see that rewarded.

It's time to move on, play the game and may the best team (Steelers) win!

PackAttack
01-26-2011, 02:28 PM
everybody wants to see us lose. a huge chunk of the nfl fans are old bandwagon dallas and 49er fans who would hate nothing more than to see us win 2 more lombardis than them

In fairness both those clubs don't like GB too.

Favre and co were always knocking 49ers out of the playoffs and Dallas?
Packers love running up the score on them.