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Atlanta Dan
02-03-2011, 08:14 AM
Interesting uses of stats to break down the match-up - excerpts and link below

Super Bowl Probability: A True 50-50 Game

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior

The Steelers and the Packers are about as evenly matched as two teams can be....

Taking all these numbers and weighting them according to their predictive power produces a game probability that favors the Steelers about 0.51 vs. 0.49. However, once each team’s strength of schedule is taken into account, Pittsburgh’s edge softens ever so slightly, making it a 0.505 vs. 0.495 matchup.

There are other circumstances that the statistics aren’t aware of, however. The Steelers’ starting center, Maurkice Pouncey, is badly injured and unlikely to play. The game is on turf and indoors, where the Packers appear to thrive. It’s understandable that the consensus gives a slight edge to the Packers.

But I suspect there are two other considerations that may be tipping the conventional wisdom in favor of Green Bay. In recent weeks, the Packers beat the Falcons and the Bears decisively while playing on the road, while the Steelers had some trouble beating the Ravens and the Jets at home.

But those victories over Atlanta and Chicago were not such great feats, at least according to efficiency stats. The Falcons were rated 20th and the Bears 14th in team efficiency for the regular season. The Ravens and the Jets were rated sixth and eighth....

My prediction for Sunday’s big game is that the winner will be…the fans. As trite as that sounds, that’s exactly what the numbers are telling us. We’ve been treated to some epic Super Bowls in recent years, and although there are no guarantees, chances are this one will be no exception.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/super-bowl-probability-a-true-50-50-game/?ref=sports

I agree that those picking Green Bay may be off base in giving a lot of weight to their playoff blowout of the Falcons - that game was tied late in the first half, with the Falcons set to take back the lead when "Mattty Ice a/k/a Matty Melt" Ryan threw an INT into the end zone followed by the pick six that effectively ended the game, and the Falcons simply were not that good

TRH
02-03-2011, 08:25 AM
For once, a decent article....

quiggle
02-03-2011, 08:27 AM
it just takes one funny bounce of the ball in the game and all the stats mean nothing.

SteelersBry79
02-03-2011, 09:04 AM
Interesting uses of stats to break down the match-up - excerpts and link below

Super Bowl Probability: A True 50-50 Game

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior

The Steelers and the Packers are about as evenly matched as two teams can be....

Taking all these numbers and weighting them according to their predictive power produces a game probability that favors the Steelers about 0.51 vs. 0.49. However, once each team’s strength of schedule is taken into account, Pittsburgh’s edge softens ever so slightly, making it a 0.505 vs. 0.495 matchup.

There are other circumstances that the statistics aren’t aware of, however. The Steelers’ starting center, Maurkice Pouncey, is badly injured and unlikely to play. The game is on turf and indoors, where the Packers appear to thrive. It’s understandable that the consensus gives a slight edge to the Packers.

But I suspect there are two other considerations that may be tipping the conventional wisdom in favor of Green Bay. In recent weeks, the Packers beat the Falcons and the Bears decisively while playing on the road, while the Steelers had some trouble beating the Ravens and the Jets at home.

But those victories over Atlanta and Chicago were not such great feats, at least according to efficiency stats. The Falcons were rated 20th and the Bears 14th in team efficiency for the regular season. The Ravens and the Jets were rated sixth and eighth....

My prediction for Sunday’s big game is that the winner will be…the fans. As trite as that sounds, that’s exactly what the numbers are telling us. We’ve been treated to some epic Super Bowls in recent years, and although there are no guarantees, chances are this one will be no exception.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/super-bowl-probability-a-true-50-50-game/?ref=sports

I agree that those picking Green Bay may be off base in giving a lot of weight to their playoff blowout of the Falcons - that game was tied late in the first half, with the Falcons set to take back the lead when "Mattty Ice a/k/a Matty Melt" Ryan threw an INT into the end zone followed by the pick six that effectively ended the game, and the Falcons simply were not that good

Not to mention that the AFC is the tougher of the 2 conferences. The article also didn't mention that the Bears screwed themselves, and GB did not beat them alone.

Sure the Steelers had some "issues" with the Ravens and the Jets, but they're the Ravens and the Jets and did anyone expect an easy game from either team? As much as I hate the Ravens, I respect them because they always bring a good fight and they give the Steelers everything they have every single time.

The Jets game we almost kicked ourselves in the ass in the second half, but the Steelers did what it took to win, and I guarantee you they won't make the same mistakes they made against the Jets on Sunday.

Jackal
02-03-2011, 09:15 AM
I don't know if I think we had that much "trouble" with the Jets, inasmuch as we were largely playing the Prevent in the second half to protect the lead. It never should've gotten as close as it did, but still.

As for the Ravens game, we played freakishly sloppy in the first half and then routed them in the second half.

Why is it that everyone overlooks the Super Bowl experience factor when making their picks? I think the fact that we have 18 players who have played in multiple Super Bowls versus their 2 who have played in the Super Bowl period offsets the potential loss of Pouncey, if not more. Rodgers has already stated that he hopes we get the ball first so that he has time for his nerves to settle before taking the field.

FanSince72
02-03-2011, 09:18 AM
Well I think that most true "football people" who see the game instead of TV ratings have called this one a "pick-'em" since day one.

I hope it plays out that way because I really hate blowouts even if it's us doing the blowing out. In fact, the one thing I wish for for us is that we finally put a complete game together against a really good team, which is something that hasn't happened yet this season.

SteelersBry79
02-03-2011, 09:31 AM
Rodgers has already stated that he hopes we get the ball first so that he has time for his nerves to settle before taking the field.

In other words he's scared shitless :puke:

colescott1
02-03-2011, 10:48 AM
I really hate blowouts even if it's us doing the blowing out.


Nah... Not when it comes to the SuperBowl, and all the stuff that has gone down this year. Nothing would make me happier than the Steelers TROUNCING the Packers 49-0.

Every time, its an "easy path", or with the "refs help". I wouldn't mind at all of this game was really over in the 1st QTR. Then I could sit back, enjoy my beverage, and feel justice was served.

Jackal
02-03-2011, 11:59 AM
Nah... Not when it comes to the SuperBowl, and all the stuff that has gone down this year. Nothing would make me happier than the Steelers TROUNCING the Packers 49-0.

Every time, its an "easy path", or with the "refs help". I wouldn't mind at all of this game was really over in the 1st QTR. Then I could sit back, enjoy my beverage, and feel justice was served.

I'm with you on that one. As long as we're on the right side of it, I'll take a blowout any day.

caseyviator
02-03-2011, 08:17 PM
should be another technical blowout especially if the steelers play 2 halfs instead of one.....but if u think about both games the steelers really only need a half to beat both teams...pretty good in my book..i expect more of the same
pitt 34
pack 24