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View Full Version : How long before you can judge a draft?


thumper
07-08-2011, 02:17 PM
I would say a few years after the draft you can judge the picks, as
a general rule of thumb.

2009 1 1 32 32 Ziggy Hood DT Missouri - Great pick
2 3 15 79 Kraig Urbik T Wisconsin - Shit pick
3 3 20 84 Mike Wallace WR Mississippi - GREAT pick
4 3 32 96 Keenan Lewis DB Oregon State - Shit
5 5 32 168 Joe Burnett DB Central Florida - Shit
6 5 33 169 Frank Summers RB UNLV - Shit
7 6 32 205 Ra'Shon Harris DT Oregon - Shit
8 7 17 226 A.Q. Shipley C Penn State - Shit
9 7 32 241 David Johnson TE Arkansas State - OK

2 great picks, 7 shit, 1 OK. Grade - B

2008 1 1 23 23 Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois - Good
2 2 22 53 Limas Sweed WR Texas - Shit
3 3 25 88 Bruce Davis LB UCLA - double shit
4 4 31 130 Tony Hills T Texas - C-
5 5 21 156 Dennis Dixon QB Oregon - Pending
6 6 22 188 Mike Humpal LB Iowa - Shit
7 6 28 194 Ryan Mundy DB West Virginia - Shit

1 good, 1 C-, 1 pending, 4 shit. C+

2007 1 1 15 15 Lawrence Timmons LB Florida State - Good
2 2 14 46 LaMarr Woodley DE Michigan - Great
3 3 13 77 Matt Spaeth TE Minnesota - shit
4 4 13 112 Daniel Sepulveda P Baylor - Too high
5 4 33 132 Ryan McBean DE Oklahoma State - Shit
6 5 19 156 Cameron Stephenson G Rutgers - Shit
7 5 33 170 William Gay DB Louisville - OK
8 7 17 227 Dallas Baker WR Florida - Shit

1 great, 1 good1 OK, 5 shit. B.

2006 1 1 25 25 Santonio Holmes WR Ohio State - Great
2 3 19 83 Anthony Smith DB Syracuse - shit
3 3 31 95 Willie Reid WR Florida State - shit
4 4 34 131 Willie Colon G Hofstra - OK
5 4 36 133 Orien Harris DT Miami (FL) - Shit
6 5 32 164 Omar Jacobs QB Bowling Green - Shit
7 5 35 167 Charles Davis TE Purdue - Shit
8 6 32 201 Marvin Philip C California - Shit
9 7 32 240 Cedric Humes RB Virginia Tech - Shit

1 Great, 1 OK, 7 shit. C

2005 1 1 30 30 Heath Miller TE Virginia - Great
2 2 30 62 Bryant McFadden DB Florida State - Solid
3 3 29 93 Trai Essex T Northwestern - OK
4 4 30 131 Fred Gibson WR Georgia - Shit
5 5 30 166 Rian Wallace LB Temple - Shit
6 6 30 204 Chris Kemoeatu G Utah - Good
7 7 14 228 Shaun Nua DE Brigham Young - Shit
8 7 30 244 Noah Herron RB Northwestern - So so

B

2004 1 1 11 11 Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (OH) - Superior
2 2 6 38 Ricardo Colclough DB Tusculum - Shit
3 3 12 75 Max Starks T Florida - Very good
4 5 13 145 Nathaniel Adibi DE Virginia Tech - Shit
5 6 12 177 Bo Lacy T Arkansas - Shit
6 6 29 194 Matt Kranchick TE Penn State - Shit
7 6 32 197 Drew Caylor C Stanford - Shit
8 7 11 212 Eric Taylor DT Memphis - Shit

B+

DanRooney
07-08-2011, 03:34 PM
The 2009 draft was one of the worst of all time. Ziggy Hood was not a great pick. He was a prototypical 4-3 DT that was totally undersized for our scheme. It took him two years to learn one of the easiest positions in the NFL and quite frankly, he's only been good for the last half of last season. He spent the whole 2009 season on his ass and getting pushed backwards. Everyone they picked were reaches. They got extremely lucky with Wallace.

2008 with Mendenhall was a better draft at the time. Mendenhall and Sweed were both steal picks even though one only panned out.

2010 and 2011 were probably the best drafts on paper. You can't really give the Steelers C grades because they usually get what they need at a position even though it's usually one or two guys out of the bunch. You can't name another team that does better.

Jimmy Shaker
07-08-2011, 03:50 PM
2008 was a horrible draft. 4-5 Probowl backs were selected after Fumblenhall. Ryan Mundy may be the only one of the bunch that gets an extension.

DanRooney
07-09-2011, 02:09 AM
2008 was a horrible draft. 4-5 Probowl backs were selected after Fumblenhall. Ryan Mundy may be the only one of the bunch that gets an extension.

Mendenhall, as a prospect, was the 2nd best back in that draft class behind McFadden. It was a steal to pick him up in the 20s. He's a great back and needs to be utilized in the passing game more.

55BaileyFan
07-09-2011, 08:01 AM
I don't agree with some of you "shit" assessments. The Kraig Urbik wasn't given a chance in Pittsburgh and was cut without ever getting a shot to prove he could play. He went to Buffalo and played very well there...hell our O-Line coach spoke very highly of him and it was noted by the Post that Urbik became a good starter under our coach for the Bills.

And Spaeth? He has been a solid blocker and for the most part has had very dependable hands. I don't understand how you say shit. I would say Ok pick and still pending for more. Then you list Sepulveda too high and William Gay Ok? If we waited we wouldn't have got good old #9 and Gay was a TERRIBLE pick, he is one of the worst CB in the NFL.

I think you can look at the 2006 maybe the 2007 drafts but you should really give a draft 5 years or so to see who develops.

steeltheone
07-09-2011, 10:50 AM
I don't agree with some of you "shit" assessments. The Kraig Urbik wasn't given a chance in Pittsburgh and was cut without ever getting a shot to prove he could play. He went to Buffalo and played very well there...hell our O-Line coach spoke very highly of him and it was noted by the Post that Urbik became a good starter under our coach for the Bills.

And Spaeth? He has been a solid blocker and for the most part has had very dependable hands. I don't understand how you say shit. I would say Ok pick and still pending for more. Then you list Sepulveda too high and William Gay Ok? If we waited we wouldn't have got good old #9 and Gay was a TERRIBLE pick, he is one of the worst CB in the NFL.

I think you can look at the 2006 maybe the 2007 drafts but you should really give a draft 5 years or so to see who develops.

Gay is not a terrible pick...imo

55BaileyFan
07-09-2011, 11:36 AM
Gay is not a terrible pick...imo

Gay is not terrible? What team have you watched? vs New England he allowed 3 TD...3! He has been benched multiple times in multiple seasons, he is a terrible tackler and couldn't cover Betty White is she was walking in a hallway. TERRIBLE.

steeltheone
07-09-2011, 02:33 PM
He is a 7th round pick...The terrible part is we have NOBODY any better at coverage minus Ike....And we might not have him!

thumper
07-09-2011, 03:00 PM
The 2009 draft was one of the worst of all time. Ziggy Hood was not a great pick. He was a prototypical 4-3 DT that was totally undersized for our scheme. It took him two years to learn one of the easiest positions in the NFL and quite frankly, he's only been good for the last half of last season. He spent the whole 2009 season on his ass and getting pushed backwards. Everyone they picked were reaches. They got extremely lucky with Wallace.

2008 with Mendenhall was a better draft at the time. Mendenhall and Sweed were both steal picks even though one only panned out.

2010 and 2011 were probably the best drafts on paper. You can't really give the Steelers C grades because they usually get what they need at a position even though it's usually one or two guys out of the bunch. You can't name another team that does better.

On one hand you say the 2009 draft was HORRIBLE, and that Hood
is not a good pick and he sucks. And then on the other you say
you can't give Pgh a C grade because they always get who they
need. I'm confused. Which is it?

thumper
07-09-2011, 03:02 PM
Gay is not terrible? What team have you watched? vs New England he allowed 3 TD...3! He has been benched multiple times in multiple seasons, he is a terrible tackler and couldn't cover Betty White is she was walking in a hallway. TERRIBLE.

Gay is fine is not asked to play outside. He is a slot/nickel CB. When he
plays his natural position, he does fine. Forced to play outside? He
struggles. Key is to not have him play outside and he is worth having
around. He was only FORCED to play outside because of B-Mac's
injuries. How many times do we have to go over this?

thumper
07-09-2011, 03:08 PM
I don't agree with some of you "shit" assessments. The Kraig Urbik wasn't given a chance in Pittsburgh and was cut without ever getting a shot to prove he could play. He went to Buffalo and played very well there...hell our O-Line coach spoke very highly of him and it was noted by the Post that Urbik became a good starter under our coach for the Bills.

He was given a chance - it's called all of camp and preseason. He didn't
cut it. A 2nd round pick not making the roster deserves "shit" label in my
opinion. Yes, sometimes players get cut and land some where else that
is more needy and make that team. It happens. But Urbik was a stiff
when he played in Pgh. He has cinder block feet. He can't move. He
didn't make the team and as a 2nd rounder that sucks.

And Spaeth? He has been a solid blocker and for the most part has had very dependable hands. I don't understand how you say shit. I would say Ok pick and still pending for more.

Spaeth has got the benefit of the doubt because the team was slow to
admit he was poor pick. His rookie year he caught some TDs, but when
he has been thrown the ball in the middle of the field, he has blown ass.
How many times does he just drop it? And he is NOT that great of a blocker,
he is merely OK. At 6-6, he certainly doesn't appear very tough.

Then you list Sepulveda too high and William Gay Ok? If we waited we wouldn't have got good old #9 and Gay was a TERRIBLE pick, he is one of the worst CB in the NFL.

Gay is a solid nickel back. That equates to good value for where he was
taken.

I think you can look at the 2006 maybe the 2007 drafts but you should really give a draft 5 years or so to see who develops.

Very few players will pan out if they haven't shown anything after 2 years.
It is the exception not the rule. I'm not saying they have to be probowl
players after 2 years, but they should have shown something or it's
likely they won't be much.

55BaileyFan
07-09-2011, 07:03 PM
Gay is fine is not asked to play outside. He is a slot/nickel CB. When he
plays his natural position, he does fine. Forced to play outside? He
struggles. Key is to not have him play outside and he is worth having
around. He was only FORCED to play outside because of B-Mac's
injuries. How many times do we have to go over this?

Those 3 TDs he gave up against NE were in the slot. When NE went to the multiple TE set they pulled Gay inside and he was beat 3 times.

pete74
07-10-2011, 06:53 AM
Mendenhall, as a prospect, was the 2nd best back in that draft class behind McFadden. It was a steal to pick him up in the 20s. He's a great back and needs to be utilized in the passing game more.

chris johnson was selected after mendy and i would take CJ over mendy any day

thumper
07-10-2011, 02:31 PM
Those 3 TDs he gave up against NE were in the slot. When NE went to the multiple TE set they pulled Gay inside and he was beat 3 times.

Oh OK. Getting burnt by the best slot passing team in the history
of the NFL might not be reason to judge him poor just from that
game. NE torches EVERYONE with their slot guys. Welker is among the
best slot WR of ALL TIME. Brady is arguably the best QB ever. I am
thinking getting torched by them is not total proof that you suck.

Shit, we might as well say our entire D blows b/c NE carved us up.
Why not? We must suck b/c NE torched our D. Our D, there fore,
blows. End of story.

thumper
07-10-2011, 02:34 PM
chris johnson was selected after mendy and i would take CJ over mendy any day

CJ is far superior to RM. Not even close. But that doesn't mean
RM was a bad pick. It was not perfect (Since CJ is far superior)
but mistakes happen that don't mean the pick was rubbish. Lots
of teams had no idea CJ could play as an every down back and
run between the tackles without getting hurt. I think even TN was
surprised at how good CJ turned out over all. But they better
pay his ass this year. He's making less than 1 million as one
of the best HBs in the league. Pay the man.

ggoldman
07-10-2011, 10:05 PM
Ziggy Hood actually played better than Aaron Smith last year. Everybody remembers in 2007 when Smith tore his biceps, and our run D fell to pieces. When Ziggy actually got time to start, he played extremely well.

DanRooney
07-10-2011, 10:35 PM
I don't agree with some of you "shit" assessments. The Kraig Urbik wasn't given a chance in Pittsburgh and was cut without ever getting a shot to prove he could play. He went to Buffalo and played very well there...hell our O-Line coach spoke very highly of him and it was noted by the Post that Urbik became a good starter under our coach for the Bills.

And Spaeth? He has been a solid blocker and for the most part has had very dependable hands. I don't understand how you say shit. I would say Ok pick and still pending for more. Then you list Sepulveda too high and William Gay Ok? If we waited we wouldn't have got good old #9 and Gay was a TERRIBLE pick, he is one of the worst CB in the NFL.

I think you can look at the 2006 maybe the 2007 drafts but you should really give a draft 5 years or so to see who develops.


I can't believe you said that about Kraig Urbik. I was absolutely livid not only that they selected that bum, but they TRADED DOWN out of the second to get him. Absolutely terrible college lineman who overachieved consistently. I don't know what you mean by him "not getting a chance" because he was bullied at training camp by 3rd string linemen (Kirshke); hence why he couldn't beat out UFA Ramon Roster.

DanRooney
07-10-2011, 10:37 PM
Ziggy Hood actually played better than Aaron Smith last year. Everybody remembers in 2007 when Smith tore his biceps, and our run D fell to pieces. When Ziggy actually got time to start, he played extremely well.

Absolutely not. Our defense played godly up until the Miami game. Timmons was on pace to become the DPOY, leading the league in tackles at the time. While Ziggy played well, Timmons production dropped and so did our total defensive output.

DanRooney
07-10-2011, 10:40 PM
chris johnson was selected after mendy and i would take CJ over mendy any day

No shit. I would've taken Brady earlier than the 6th too. Nobody knew how good Johnson was at the time. As a college PROSPECT (key word), Mendenhall was much better than Johnson.

And Gay is not a solid nickelback. He's not even a solid option. He can blitz off the corner and is an okay tackler (I disagree with the guy who said he was a terrible tackler because that's the only strength our 3 CBs have). That's about it. He's one of the worst cover corners in the league.

Jimmy Shaker
07-11-2011, 12:49 PM
Mendenhall, as a prospect, was the 2nd best back in that draft class behind McFadden. It was a steal to pick him up in the 20s. He's a great back and needs to be utilized in the passing game more.

They missed. Plain and simple. It's odd because I know the Steelers like to select guys that love the game which is something Spindenhall hasn't exactly portrayed. He didn't hang around the team after getting hurt as a rookie. He was benched for not knowing details. He would rather run outta bounds than lower his shoulder into someone. FWP Jr. would be a great back for a team whose OL creates some holes, unfortunately, the Steelers RB needs to create his own holes more often than not.

DanRooney
07-11-2011, 04:37 PM
They missed. Plain and simple. It's odd because I know the Steelers like to select guys that love the game which is something Spindenhall hasn't exactly portrayed. He didn't hang around the team after getting hurt as a rookie. He was benched for not knowing details. He would rather run outta bounds than lower his shoulder into someone. FWP Jr. would be a great back for a team whose OL creates some holes, unfortunately, the Steelers RB needs to create his own holes more often than not.

FWP Jr.? I find it funny you consider Mendenhall a RB who'd rather run out of bounds than get hit and then you mention Willie Parker. Parker was notorious for falling down after first contact (sometimes without any contact at all). After our elite line left in 2006, he was horrible. In 2007, despite leading the league in yards at one time, he carried a mediocre YPC and close to the worst stuffed run percentages. Mendenhall ranks among the top of the league in breaking tackles. He's a top 7-10 back in the league.

steeltheone
07-11-2011, 07:37 PM
Absolutely not. Our defense played godly up until the Miami game. Timmons was on pace to become the DPOY, leading the league in tackles at the time. While Ziggy played well, Timmons production dropped and so did our total defensive output.

Not True...Our Defense put up better numbers against the rush than any season Smith ever played.

pete74
07-11-2011, 07:47 PM
No shit. I would've taken Brady earlier than the 6th too. Nobody knew how good Johnson was at the time. As a college PROSPECT (key word), Mendenhall was much better than Johnson.

And Gay is not a solid nickelback. He's not even a solid option. He can blitz off the corner and is an okay tackler (I disagree with the guy who said he was a terrible tackler because that's the only strength our 3 CBs have). That's about it. He's one of the worst cover corners in the league.

no shit my man. i think everyone knows that. i also think everyone knows that you cant judge a player soley on his college stats. there is alot more involved then that

pete74
07-11-2011, 07:48 PM
FWP Jr.? I find it funny you consider Mendenhall a RB who'd rather run out of bounds than get hit and then you mention Willie Parker. Parker was notorious for falling down after first contact (sometimes without any contact at all). After our elite line left in 2006, he was horrible. In 2007, despite leading the league in yards at one time, he carried a mediocre YPC and close to the worst stuffed run percentages. Mendenhall ranks among the top of the league in breaking tackles. He's a top 7-10 back in the league.

stat wise our defense had one of the best years ever

DanRooney
07-11-2011, 08:30 PM
Not True...Our Defense put up better numbers against the rush than any season Smith ever played.

That's because teams stopped trying to run on us because teams are never able to. You can attribute that more to the emergence of Timmons rather than Hood imho. Ziggy played well in the last half of the season but to say he played better than Smith ever did is a stretch. It's not too often that you have jackasses like the Ravens head coach saying that his divisional rivals defensive end is virtually 'unblockable.'

I'm for the youth movement too as seen in my other posts about how much this team will benefit demoting Hines Ward to a 3rd/4th string WR or cutting him altogether if he whines. I just think Aaron Smith still plays at an elite level at the 3-4 end position.

DanRooney
07-11-2011, 08:39 PM
no shit my man. i think everyone knows that. i also think everyone knows that you cant judge a player soley on his college stats. there is alot more involved then that

CJ was drafted that high purely on speed. Mendenhall was more of a prototypical back that went to a better school. He had a bigger frame and ran a 4.37 40 himself. All signs including stats pointed to go with Mendenhall. It was not a 'miss pick.' He'll be an elite back in this league if we can get our line straightened up outside of Pouncey.

BTW Parker is probably one of the most overrated players in the history of Pittsburgh sports. I find it funny that he couldn't find a job in Washington when they had guys like Larry Johnson competing for a spot.

steelerchad
07-11-2011, 09:46 PM
I'm still not sure I'd trade Mendy for CJ right now. Mendy still has more upside than CJ in my opinion. The Titans are a running team and whether we like it or not the Steelers with Ben and Arians are a little more pass than run. CJ is a one trick pony and when his speed diminishes a little he will not be dominant any longer. Mendy is a better all around back and can be a top 5 back for the next 5 or 6 years imo. CJ was dominated by the Steelers last year and looked scared to carry the ball any longer in the second half of that game.

steeltheone
07-11-2011, 10:28 PM
CJ was drafted that high purely on speed. Mendenhall was more of a prototypical back that went to a better school. He had a bigger frame and ran a 4.37 40 himself. All signs including stats pointed to go with Mendenhall. It was not a 'miss pick.' He'll be an elite back in this league if we can get our line straightened up outside of Pouncey.

BTW Parker is probably one of the most overrated players in the history of Pittsburgh sports. I find it funny that he couldn't find a job in Washington when they had guys like Larry Johnson competing for a spot.

Parker did fine with the lines he ran behind...If he would have had the Steelers lines of the 90's early 00's he would have put up staggering numbers. Not saying he is anywhere near an all time great, but his homerun threat was as good as they come.

DanRooney
07-12-2011, 02:43 AM
Parker did fine with the lines he ran behind...If he would have had the Steelers lines of the 90's early 00's he would have put up staggering numbers. Not saying he is anywhere near an all time great, but his homerun threat was as good as they come.

That home run is the only thing lacking in Mendenhall's game but he has the speed to do it. I just don't think he has big enough lanes to run through. It would be nice if we picked up a scat back in there for a change of pace. I was kind of disappointed we didn't draft Noel Devine (who's still available as an UDFA). I never even heard of Baron Batch prior to drafting him.

steeltheone
07-12-2011, 06:27 AM
That home run is the only thing lacking in Mendenhall's game but he has the speed to do it. I just don't think he has big enough lanes to run through. It would be nice if we picked up a scat back in there for a change of pace. I was kind of disappointed we didn't draft Noel Devine (who's still available as an UDFA). I never even heard of Baron Batch prior to drafting him.

I think Mendy will be fine ( If he keeps his mouth shut ) ...Not a great back but a very good one..

Jimmy Shaker
07-12-2011, 11:46 AM
FWP Jr.? I find it funny you consider Mendenhall a RB who'd rather run out of bounds than get hit and then you mention Willie Parker. Parker was notorious for falling down after first contact (sometimes without any contact at all). After our elite line left in 2006, he was horrible. In 2007, despite leading the league in yards at one time, he carried a mediocre YPC and close to the worst stuffed run percentages. Mendenhall ranks among the top of the league in breaking tackles. He's a top 7-10 back in the league.

At times Mendy runs just like Parker. Dances around behind the line, goes down on first contact, always spinning like a top. He also runs high and doesn't secure the ball well.

Where I think Mendy is an improvement over Parker is in his vision, hands, and blocking. I just wish he'd run somebody over every once in a while.

steelerchad
07-12-2011, 03:04 PM
At times Mendy runs just like Parker. Dances around behind the line, goes down on first contact, always spinning like a top. He also runs high and doesn't secure the ball well.

Where I think Mendy is an improvement over Parker is in his vision, hands, and blocking. I just wish he'd run somebody over every once in a while.

Like when Gay got trucked by A.P? Those don't happen very often. He set Gay up with a threat to the outside and when Gay broke down and was flat footed Peterson ran right through him. Mendy has the power to do it, but rarely gets to the opportunity in the second level. It's not really the right play anyway. Take it outside and get all the yards you can and then step out. Peterson should have been tackled on that play. Hell he should have tripped over Gays facemask on his way over top of him. For every time he runs over the guy and picks up an extra 30 yards, there will be 10 times the guy makes that tackle. If he bounces it outside he gets an extra 5,10, or even a touchdown more than half the time.

The only time I want to see one of our backs run through someone is on 3rd and under 2. Redman did a good job of that last year, so Mendy doesn't have to.

Mendy is a top 10 back in this league with an avg. or below line. With a top 10 line, he's a top 5 back. Mendy is not the problem. I know he likely fumbled away the SB last year, but he did not have a fumbling problem last year. Only 2 fumbles with the 4th most carries in the league. Peyton Hillis was the talk of the league last year. He had 50 less carries, 100 less yards, and 8 fumbles. His year was good enough to get the Madden cover. Mendy had a really solid year. He hasn't even been the starter for 2 full seasons yet. This guy is already good and will get better.

DanRooney
07-12-2011, 05:42 PM
At times Mendy runs just like Parker. Dances around behind the line, goes down on first contact, always spinning like a top. He also runs high and doesn't secure the ball well.

Where I think Mendy is an improvement over Parker is in his vision, hands, and blocking. I just wish he'd run somebody over every once in a while.

I couldn't disagree with you more concerning the first paragraph

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2011/6/23/2239932/nfl-broken-tackle-stats-running-backs-mendenhall-jamaal-charles-thomas-jones-steelers

Neil-Still-Rules-14
07-13-2011, 07:54 PM
Ryan Mundy played very well in relief of Polamalu this year also. He had a very bad rookie season but definitely looks like he turned the corner.

thumper
07-19-2011, 04:26 PM
Ryan Mundy played very well in relief of Polamalu this year also. He had a very bad rookie season but definitely looks like he turned the corner.

How did I miss that?