View Full Version : Keys to Victory Against the Jags!!!!

10-12-2011, 07:11 PM
I was curious as to what the keys to victory for this Sunday will be, I believe a heavy dose of mixing the run and pass for the offense. I would like to see a RB controversy in a good way in Pittsburgh. For the defense, I think that the biggest key to victory is to stop Jones-Drew, we need to not forget the stomping of the "Terrible Towel", also the ability to pressure and rattle a young QB, pressure will be very important this week. What do you guys and gals think?

10-12-2011, 07:19 PM
They were able to pressure a veteran QB in Hasselbeck with a pretty good O line last week. This week they get a rookie QB. Time to confuse him and let him make mistakes. I wouldn't go too crazy on the blitzes though because the Jags will be game planning for that and will have screen passes and dump offs set up.

Stopping MJD is a must. He is a small but powerful back that can be very sneaky due to his small size. They need to take him out of the game and force the rookie QB to beat them through the air.

More of the same on offense. Short, 3 step drops when passing and more pounding the ball on the ground. I would like to see a good rotation of Mendy, Redman and Dwyer/Moore to mix things up. Redman can wear down the D and then Mendy can take advantage them with his speed.

The O line needs to match that performance against the Titans with another strong performance. Hopefully Starks still has something to prove and continues with another good game.

Most importantly is to not get too ****y and confident. The Jags may not be a stellar team but they can be dangerous. They need to play a smart and efficient game to win.

10-12-2011, 09:51 PM
Run the same gameplan as last week. Our O was clicking for the first time so "if it ain't broke, don't try and fix it". Stop MJD and force Gabbert to beat you, I am seeing a sack fumble by him this week, plus he hasnt played against Troy ever, so this will be a learning experience for him (in a bad way). Troy is almost there so many times so far, it could be a break out game for him in terms of int's as Gabbert is sure to telegraph a bit more than a vet and take just that millisecond longer for the reads (which is how close Troy has been so far). Hopefully our ST will be a bit better so we don't even have to think about that.

10-13-2011, 11:53 AM
Just do what we did last week. I'm tired of all these journalists stating how we beat these teams with so many starters out, when in reality, many of the people starting in their place should have been starting in the first place. Granted, there is a dropoff without Harrison in, but Hood should be starting instead of Smith in the first place, and it isn't like Kemo is the next best thing.

Fire Arians
10-13-2011, 01:07 PM
don't let MJD have a big game and this should be another W

10-13-2011, 02:52 PM

10-13-2011, 04:54 PM
Stuff MJD. Don't Shoot self in the foot with stumble bumble plays and playbook calling.

10-13-2011, 05:21 PM
Showing up.

Buddha Bus
10-13-2011, 05:25 PM
Showing up.

I was going to say the same thing until I thought, "Yeah, but which one of OUR teams shows up?" :doh:

10-13-2011, 07:09 PM
Score more points then they do?

10-13-2011, 08:26 PM
do not play down to our competition like we ALWAYS do!!!!!!!

10-14-2011, 01:18 AM
Has to be stopping Mo-Jo.

Third Rail
10-14-2011, 03:49 PM
Stopping MJD and forcing turnovers should make quick work of the Jags. Interesting article on Grantland about the Steelers' lack of turnovers on defense. They seem to think that there's no need to be worried about that and feel this week will likely be a return to form. I certainly hope they're right.


Has the Steel Curtain Gone Soft?

The Steelers defense has forced only two turnovers. Our football guru on what to expect for the rest of the season.

By Bill Barnwell


Something very strange is going on in Pittsburgh. The perennially superb Steelers defense is off to another great season, ranking first in passing yards allowed per attempt and fourth in points allowed, with the Steel Curtain giving up fewer than 18 points per contest.1 That's de rigueur by now. Something is missing, though, that doesn't make much sense. For some reason, the great Pittsburgh Steelers defense has stopped forcing turnovers.

Through five games, the Steelers have just two takeaways. That is the second-lowest total for any team through its first five games since 1990,2 and it's coming from a unit that averaged more than two takeaways per game last season. If you assume that the defense's 2010 turnover rate was an accurate reflection of its abilities, the odds against this measly turnover rate happening in 2011 are 785-to-1.

It's not even like the Steelers have had particularly bad luck. They've forced three fumbles in those five games and recovered one of them, a year after they forced 1.5 fumbles per game. Their one interception came last week, on a Matt Hasselbeck pass that was tipped. The schedule hasn't brought them a slate of stingy offenses, as their five opponents have averaged 1.6 turnovers per game when they haven't played the Steelers.

This would be easier to understand if the Steelers defense was also playing poorly, since we could attribute the decline to some combination of a slipping Troy Polamalu and a decrease in sack rate,3 but this mix of great performance and no turnovers is almost unprecedented. It raises two questions that we'll use history to try to answer: Is it possible for the Steelers defense to continue to play well without forcing turnovers? And, whether it's possible or not, will the turnovers come back?

Fake It 'Til We Make It

While we expect the Steelers to force turnovers more frequently over the final 11 games of the year, let's play devil's advocate and pretend it doesn't happen. Obviously, takeaways are an essential component of a defense's success, but are there teams over the past 20 years that have played great defense without creating turnovers?

As you might suspect, while they exist, those defenses are few and far between. Only four teams since 1990 have ranked in both the top five in (fewest) points allowed and bottom five in turnovers forced over a full season, and nobody's done it since the 2003 Bills. Better than 75 percent of the teams who finished in the top five in points allowed over that time frame did so with an above-average turnover rate. If the Steelers don't start forcing turnovers soon, it's going to be extremely difficult for them to maintain their elite level of performance on defense.

Takeaways: That Ball and Chain

Do teams that start the season sans takeaways swing back toward normalcy and start generating turnovers, or is a slow start indicative of a real problem with the defense? To answer that question, we can use the correlation coefficient, which we introduced in our Wednesday piece on the point spread. The correlation coefficient measures the relationship between two sets of variables and can tell us if one is a strong predictor of the other. What we're trying to figure out is whether a team's takeaway total during its first five games does a good job of predicting the same team's takeaways during the final 11 games.

The answer is a very swift no. Less than 2 percent of the takeaway rates posted by teams during the final 11 games can be explained away by the variance of their takeaway rates during the first five. It's a useless indicator. Put it this way — since 1990, the top 10 percent or so of teams in takeaways through the first five games each forced 14 or more turnovers. In the final 11 games of the year, they averaged a total of 21.6. Meanwhile, the bottom 10 percent or so of teams during the first five games of the year each forced no more than five turnovers. In their final 11 games, they picked up an average of 19.0 takeaways. After those initial five games to start the year, the difference between the teams that looked like takeaway factories and the ones that looked like they were incapable of forcing turnovers was just one turnover per every four games.

So, good news, Steelers fans: Polamalu & Co. should start creating takeaways sometime soon. This week seems like a great place to start, as they'll host rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the lethargic Jaguars offense at Heinz Field.

Bill Barnwell is a staff writer for Grantland.