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View Full Version : Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out


LayingTheWoodley56
11-29-2011, 12:21 PM
I believe that it is very possible that we win our remaining five games. I expect a sweep of the Browns every year (they haven't scored more than 21 points yet this season, should be two easy victories), there's no excuse for us to lose to the Rams, I definitely like us against the Bengals at Heinz this Sunday...one iffy game on the schedule is at the Niners, and it is still eminently winnable.

Baltimore, on the other hand, goes at Browns (win), vs. Colts (win), at Chargers (I know they suck, but possible loss?), vs. Browns (win), and finish at Cincy (could go either way.)

It looks to me like we have to win out and hope that they drop one, which is very possible. I know I have the games above marked as wins for them but these are the same guys who brought you losses to the Seahawks and Jaguars, and another near loss to AZ. Their definitely capable of a slip-up (as are we, clearly, as we almost saw the other night.) The question is, do we win out, and do we get lucky enough that they lose a game and we can slip past them at 13-3 to secure a first-round bye and home-field? I think it's maybe 60-40 in their favor, I wouldn't count us out of getting the #1 seed just yet.

Can't help but thinking back to Nov. 6...if we coulda just held them to 91 goddamn yards on that last drive, we'd be singing a different tune around here. As it is, we need them to falter to get a leg up.

Fire Arians
11-29-2011, 12:31 PM
I think if we beat the bengals we will run the table. the niners are a tad overrated and with that offense, won't get far into the playoffs. the cross-country trip had me worried at first, but we have an extra long week to prepare, playing a home game the thursday before. 3 extra days of prep time should help handle the trip.

tbh i don't know how SF has been winning so many games. I've been watching them recently and they don't look too impressive. Good defense, yes. but their offense is worse than ours was in the kordell stewart era. Shut down gore and contain ginn on special teams and they fold

ricardisimo
11-29-2011, 03:25 PM
I don't think we lose again, and I'm pretty sure the Raven will lose in Cincy. First seed should be ours. The Texans, by most accounts, will be dropping a few games. We'll see. Who knows? Yates could be the next Brady or Ben. :noidea:

sharkweek
11-29-2011, 04:34 PM
we're in no good position to win the #1 seed or even a bye.

the only team we currently hold a tie break against is the Patriots, but they're currently one of the hottest teams in the NFL and also have one of the easiest remaining schedules, they should finish 13-3 and thus are in excellent position for a bye.

Ravens hold the tie break over us as well. If we slip up just once, they have to slip up twice. I don't see that happening with their schedule, they only play Indy once ;) Really this is the worst part of it, because if the Ravens and Steelers both finish 13-3 (or even 12-4), we're suddenly a 5th seed wild card likely traveling to a barely above .500 AFC West team.

The Texans hold a tie break against us, so we have to count on them finishing with a worse record, something that seems likely considering their QB status, but still, again, if we slip up in one game, they have to slip up in at least 2, and while they do have at least 3 losable games, two of those are at home.


At any rate I'm really not worried about playoff positioning. We won XL as a 6th seed. The Giants stopped the Pats @ 18-1 as a 5th seed. GreenBay just beat us as a 6th seed...

ricardisimo
11-29-2011, 04:44 PM
we're in no good position to win the #1 seed or even a bye.
Really? We have, basically, two halfway difficult games - Cincy (at home) and San Fran. We should be able to coast through the rest. The Ravens losing in Cincy is a probability, not a possibility. The Texans splitting the remainder of their games (if not tanking) is likely.

steelerchad
11-29-2011, 04:44 PM
Who knows. I'm hopeful the Ravens lose, but they'll be favored in all of their remaining games. Probably a pickem at Cincy. We will likely be favored in all but San Fran. Probably a 1-3 point dog.
I think we both drop 1 game somewhere and finish 12-4 and get stuck with a 5 seed going out to Oakland to play a 9-7 Raiders team. That last Baltimore game in Pittsburgh looms large IMO. To think we couldn't hold a 4 point edge in the last 2 minutes still makes me sick.
If we had that game right now we'd be 9-2 and the Ravens and Bengals would both be 7-4 and the head to head tie-break would be gone. We'd be on easy street with a game up on the 1 seed to both the Pats and Texans and the tie-break with the Pats. And a Texans team going the rest of the way with a 3rd team QB.

FanSince72
11-29-2011, 05:21 PM
Who knows. I'm hopeful the Ravens lose, but they'll be favored in all of their remaining games. Probably a pickem at Cincy. We will likely be favored in all but San Fran. Probably a 1-3 point dog.
I think we both drop 1 game somewhere and finish 12-4 and get stuck with a 5 seed going out to Oakland to play a 9-7 Raiders team. That last Baltimore game in Pittsburgh looms large IMO. To think we couldn't hold a 4 point edge in the last 2 minutes still makes me sick.
If we had that game right now we'd be 9-2 and the Ravens and Bengals would both be 7-4 and the head to head tie-break would be gone. We'd be on easy street with a game up on the 1 seed to both the Pats and Texans and the tie-break with the Pats. And a Texans team going the rest of the way with a 3rd team QB.

And if Lincoln didn't go to the theater he might have lived to a ripe old age.

What's done is done and the only direction to go is forward. We have the talent to win out and that's all this team can control so that's all we need to worry about.
The rest is out of our control so all that's left is to concentrate on winning the next five games and see what happens after that.

steelfury02
11-29-2011, 06:00 PM
If the Ravens slip up they are the biggest bunch of chokers ever. Can you imagine us beating them twice in a season and not winning the division? lol

That said, let's not blame this predicament on the defense - as you can see, they've bailed the team out plenty of times. Eventually, the offense has to do their job. If they don't, nothing else really matters and you can bet we would face the likes of GB again in the Super Bowl or the Saints so they need to find a way to get 7 in the red zone if we want #7, plain and simple.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Let's just focus on winning out and worry about who we face in the playoffs - @ home or on the road

DoctorCAD
11-29-2011, 07:28 PM
If we can't run or score touchdowns, 1 in 10,000,000
If we fix those 2 area even money.

casteeler
11-29-2011, 09:45 PM
I think if we beat the bengals we will run the table. the niners are a tad overrated and with that offense, won't get far into the playoffs. the cross-country trip had me worried at first, but we have an extra long week to prepare, playing a home game the thursday before. 3 extra days of prep time should help handle the trip.

tbh i don't know how SF has been winning so many games. I've been watching them recently and they don't look too impressive. Good defense, yes. but their offense is worse than ours was in the kordell stewart era. Shut down gore and contain ginn on special teams and they fold

A tad overrated? The Niners couldn't even muster a TD vs the Ratbirds. The reason the 49ers have 9 wins is their division. The Seaturkeys, Rams and Cards are hardly a tough assignment. Still the Steelers have to put a little more Offensive effort into that game than they did against the Chiefs.

steelerchad
11-29-2011, 10:10 PM
A tad overrated? The Niners couldn't even muster a TD vs the Ratbirds. The reason the 49ers have 9 wins is their division. The Seaturkeys, Rams and Cards are hardly a tough assignment. Still the Steelers have to put a little more Offensive effort into that game than they did against the Chiefs.

Not really true. They have only had 2 games against division opponents and they've had wins against good teams. Detroit, Bengals, Giants. I think we are a better team, but they're playing well.

Fire Arians
11-29-2011, 10:14 PM
Not really true. They have only had 2 games against division opponents and they've had wins against good teams. Detroit, Bengals, Giants. I think we are a better team, but they're playing well.

they remind me of the chiefs under schottenheimer. low powered offense that relies totally on the running game, but makes little mistakes. it will get them 12-14 games won per year but they'll be a stepping stone to championship caliber teams. There's no way they'll beat a team like green bay, new england, and they weren't tough enough for the ravens.

ETL
11-29-2011, 10:16 PM
I don't care about home field when it comes to playing the Ravens. Whether the game is in Pit or Bal, it will be close either way.

But home field would be nice for the bye and it would be better to play NE here than in Foxboro if it comes to that.

I agree with the OP. Pittsburgh has their destiny in their own hands. If then win out - they should own home field as I believe Baltimore will lose one more time and it doesn't matter if NE wins out as well as Pit owns the tie breaker.

I will make a bold prediction: as this season has gone, I think Baltimore loses to Indy and Indy's only win this year will be against the Ravens.

Steelerfreak58
11-29-2011, 11:26 PM
That 92 yard drive by Flacco and Co. with 2:42 left on the clock is going to come back to haunt us this year.

MACH1
11-29-2011, 11:37 PM
As long as it doesn't come down to a long FG I like our chances.
Then I remember we have arians. lol

OX1947
11-29-2011, 11:42 PM
Steelers have to win out. I think the Ravens have one more loss in them.

steve314
11-30-2011, 01:10 AM
About 1 in 6 according to this site:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

stb_steeler
11-30-2011, 01:24 AM
I don't care about home field when it comes to playing the Ravens. Whether the game is in Pit or Bal, it will be close either way.

But home field would be nice for the bye and it would be better to play NE here than in Foxboro if it comes to that.

I agree with the OP. Pittsburgh has their destiny in their own hands. If then win out - they should own home field as I believe Baltimore will lose one more time and it doesn't matter if NE wins out as well as Pit owns the tie breaker.

I will make a bold prediction: as this season has gone, I think Baltimore loses to Indy and Indy's only win this year will be against the Ravens.

Indy over Ravens......WOW i cant wait to see this.....:wink02:

tony hipchest
11-30-2011, 01:36 AM
Indy over Ravens......WOW i cant wait to see this.....:wink02:a few years back miami's only victory in a 1-15 season was vs the ravens (i think this was yet another year theat the ravens were supposed to supplant the patriots as the "greatest" team of the decade).

other than maybe the chargers and cowboys, i cant think of another team than the ravens constantly predicted to secure the top seeds and win the SB :yawn:

steelfury02
11-30-2011, 04:10 PM
yup, and if we didn't put the defense in the position to have to win a crucial game for us yet again, we'd be sitting with a bye - I'm blaming the offense this season. The defense has done enough for this team - time for the other 11 starters to step it up and carry this team for a change.

steelerchad
11-30-2011, 04:27 PM
yup, and if we didn't put the defense in the position to have to win a crucial game for us yet again, we'd be sitting with a bye - I'm blaming the offense this season. The defense has done enough for this team - time for the other 11 starters to step it up and carry this team for a change.

Disagree with you on the 2nd Baltimore game. Offense put up 20 points and we held a 20-16 lead with just over 2 minutes to go. Baltimore needed a TD and got it. Shouldn't happen. This is Joe Flacco and the Ravens, not Brady or Rodgers. That lead should have been held. I agree the offense has been to blame more than the D, but this D hasn't been lights out as in years past.

stb_steeler
11-30-2011, 04:28 PM
a few years back miami's only victory in a 1-15 season was vs the ravens (i think this was yet another year theat the ravens were supposed to supplant the patriots as the "greatest" team of the decade).

other than maybe the chargers and cowboys, i cant think of another team than the ravens constantly predicted to secure the top seeds and win the SB :yawn:

I'll believe it when i see it.....But hey it could happen......:wink02:

steelfury02
11-30-2011, 04:41 PM
its a numbers game - we've come to expect the defense to bail us out and this time, it didn't happen.

Eventually if you keep putting your defense in that situation they will fail.

ricardisimo
11-30-2011, 04:56 PM
a few years back miami's only victory in a 1-15 season was vs the ravens (i think this was yet another year theat the ravens were supposed to supplant the patriots as the "greatest" team of the decade).

other than maybe the chargers and cowboys, i cant think of another team than the ravens constantly predicted to secure the top seeds and win the SB :yawn:
And the Texans, can't forget them. They should put all of them in the same division, The Also-Rans.

RatbirdExtreme
11-30-2011, 05:49 PM
I don't care about home field when it comes to playing the Ravens. Whether the game is in Pit or Bal, it will be close either way.

But home field would be nice for the bye and it would be better to play NE here than in Foxboro if it comes to that.

I agree with the OP. Pittsburgh has their destiny in their own hands. If then win out - they should own home field as I believe Baltimore will lose one more time and it doesn't matter if NE wins out as well as Pit owns the tie breaker.

I will make a bold prediction: as this season has gone, I think Baltimore loses to Indy and Indy's only win this year will be against the Ravens.


Not going to happen. Name me any other crappy team in the NFL, and if the Ravens were playing them I'd at least agree with you that they had a chance. But not the Colts. I'm of the opinion that while not tanking games blatantly, they are doing their best (or worst, depending on how you look at it) to win the Luck sweepstakes.

The San Diego game and the Cinci game concern me, the Cinci game moreso since it might mean something for both teams

ETL
11-30-2011, 10:38 PM
Not going to happen. Name me any other crappy team in the NFL, and if the Ravens were playing them I'd at least agree with you that they had a chance. But not the Colts. I'm of the opinion that while not tanking games blatantly, they are doing their best (or worst, depending on how you look at it) to win the Luck sweepstakes.

The San Diego game and the Cinci game concern me, the Cinci game moreso since it might mean something for both teams

Dude, I will confess that I have more respect for your team this year than last. I think they are better with torrey smith and dickson and I think Boldin is playing better this year. I also think that Suggs is having an MVP season.

That is why it is hard to believe that your 3 losses are to the Titans, Jags and Seahawks. With that logic, it makes perfect sense that the Ravens only remaining loss is to the Colts.

steelfury02
12-01-2011, 07:57 AM
Ed Bouchette doesn't think the Ravens will win out, even if they just lose 1 that is still impressive.

As of late, they look more mentally focused than I've ever seen them. Got to at least to give them some credit - they are a better team than in years past. As a Steeler fan, I will say they still have a lot to prove - but they've done pretty well this season.

I will agree, if I were a Raven fan - I would be concerned that they've lost to some bottom feeders. At the very least, we would always beat who we should beat when we won the division and usually got beat by a division opponent and a competitive NFC team.

EDIT: I don't think they'll lose to the Colts - there is a good chance they'll lose against a great pass defense in Cleveland - just hope the Browns protect the ball - that alone will give them a chance. Still have to play in Cincy - I def see them losing one of those. Cincy is fighting for a wildcard and will do everything they can do get a AFC win/division win v. Ravens - that is their entire season on the line. They can't let Broncos or Jets sneak up on them record wise.

stb_steeler
12-03-2011, 05:06 PM
http://i830.photobucket.com/albums/zz223/Poupinou3/Banned%20or%20not/banned.gif

thebus36idf
12-03-2011, 11:32 PM
I believe that it is very possible that we win our remaining five games. I expect a sweep of the Browns every year (they haven't scored more than 21 points yet this season, should be two easy victories), there's no excuse for us to lose to the Rams, I definitely like us against the Bengals at Heinz this Sunday...one iffy game on the schedule is at the Niners, and it is still eminently winnable.

Baltimore, on the other hand, goes at Browns (win), vs. Colts (win), at Chargers (I know they suck, but possible loss?), vs. Browns (win), and finish at Cincy (could go either way.)

It looks to me like we have to win out and hope that they drop one, which is very possible. I know I have the games above marked as wins for them but these are the same guys who brought you losses to the Seahawks and Jaguars, and another near loss to AZ. Their definitely capable of a slip-up (as are we, clearly, as we almost saw the other night.) The question is, do we win out, and do we get lucky enough that they lose a game and we can slip past them at 13-3 to secure a first-round bye and home-field? I think it's maybe 60-40 in their favor, I wouldn't count us out of getting the #1 seed just yet.

Can't help but thinking back to Nov. 6...if we coulda just held them to 91 goddamn yards on that last drive, we'd be singing a different tune around here. As it is, we need them to falter to get a leg up.

I think it's possible, however remember we do better when we go in as a wildcard or underdog. ALWAYS HAVE ALWAYS WILL. BYE WEEKS AREN'T ALWAY S OUR FRIEND. i THINK WE ARE AS GOOD AS IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!:tt::tt04::tt02:

steelfury02
12-04-2011, 07:20 AM
Ok, so no matter what we run the table and make it to the SB

You better hope that the defense has a day like they had against NE and then some because

GB offensive capabilities > PIT offensive capabilities
NO offensive capabilities > PIT offensive capabilities

So, yet again, our defense has to bail us out.

If Steelers D has bad day = loss - its as simple as that

jtbsteeler
12-04-2011, 07:51 AM
Beat the Bungles. The rest will play itself out. We have 3 home games left and the Ravens have 3 road games left. If we both win out I'll give the Ravens the credit they deserve. They stayed focused... Joe Flacco's history says otherwise.

Go Browns.