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View Full Version : The Book on Mike Wallace- a true statistical analysis


tony hipchest
03-14-2012, 02:16 AM
for anyone who wants to know where wallace ranks not only amongst his peers, but historically as well, i suggest reading this piece. unfortunately it is too long and has several charts of alot of data to post in its entirety.

this data is a great indication of the potential value of wallace going forward.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18362/free-agent-preview-mike-wallace



At 25, Mike Wallace is the most promising young receiver in all of football. He's accomplished more during his first three years in the league than any other wide receiver in recent memory, despite unfavorable conditions, regular absences from his starting quarterback, and the presence of two of the league's most decorated wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart when he entered the league. Any team lucky enough to have Mike Wallace on its roster can expect to have the best wideout in football in its uniform for the next several seasons.

An Auspicious Debut

No active receiver has put together a more impressive résumé during his first three seasons as a pro than has Mike Wallace. If you compare what Wallace has done during that time to every other active wideout over the first three years of their respective careers, Wallace's statistical record is staggering. Consider:

• Among active wideouts, Wallace's 3,206 receiving yards are the second-most accrued during a player's first three seasons, behind only Anquan Boldin.

• Among receivers with a total of 60 receptions or more during their first three seasons, Wallace has averaged more yards per catch.

• He's scored 24 touchdowns in his first three seasons, more than any other receiver in football besides Braylon Edwards.

Wallace's performance during his first three seasons compares favorably to stars like Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, and Roddy White over the first three years in their respective careers. The table below lists the three-year totals for Wallace, those receivers, and other notable players, ranked by receiving yards:


RECEIVERS OF NOTE



Rank

Player

Team

Rec

Yds

Yds/Rec

TD




1

Anquan Boldin

ARI

259

3402

13.1

16



2

Mike Wallace

PIT

171

3206

18.8

24



3

Larry Fitzgerald

ARI

230

3135

13.6

24



4

DeSean Jackson

PHI

172

3135

18.2

17



5

Calvin Johnson

DET

193

3071

15.9

21



6

Hakeem Nicks

NYG

202

3034

15.0

24



7

Marques Colston

N.O.

215

3000

14.0

24



8

Brandon Marshall

DEN

226

2899

12.8

15



9

Lee Evans

BUF

178

2878

16.2

24



10

Chad Ochocinco

CIN

187

2850

15.2

16



13

Andre Johnson

HOU

208

2806

13.5

12



21

Santonio Holmes

PIT

156

2587

16.6

15



31

Roddy White

ATL

142

2154

15.2

9



32

Steve Smith

CAR

152

2136

14.1

10



39

Reggie Wayne

IND

144

1899

13.2

11



42

Sidney Rice

MIN

129

1849

14.3

16


Only two receivers in the past 30 years have gained more receiving yards and scored more touchdowns during their first three years than Wallace, and they make for pretty good company: Randy Moss and Jerry Rice.


Conclusion

Very simply, the chance to acquire a 25-year-old receiver with this sort of electric skills and proven track record of production does not come around frequently, if ever. Imagine that your organization could have signed Jerry Rice or Randy Moss to a contract three years into their careers while merely sacrificing a first-round pick. On the rare occasions when players of this ilk become available, they usually have baggage of some nature attached and require far more than a first-round pick. There is no such baggage surrounding Wallace, and because of Pittsburgh's salary cap situation, the league has been presented with a chance to acquire him for a price far below his true market value.

Mike Wallace isn't just a free agent. He's a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Bayz101
03-14-2012, 02:31 AM
One trick pony :sofunny:

http://i54.tinypic.com/1dyhxd.gif

Wallace is definitely a valuable member of this team, and I hope he stays.

pete74
03-14-2012, 04:41 AM
how this guy can say Wallace is going to be the best WR in the NFL is insane to me. no way in hell is he better then Fitz or Megatron. Ben is a future hall of famer and has been throwing to Wallace his entire carear, Megatron and Fitz had/have Stafford and Warner but also had horrible Qb's throwing to them. Wallace is awesome but he isnt in that class

steeltheone
03-14-2012, 05:56 AM
how this guy can say Wallace is going to be the best WR in the NFL is insane to me. no way in hell is he better then Fitz or Megatron. Ben is a future hall of famer and has been throwing to Wallace his entire carear, Megatron and Fitz had/have Stafford and Warner but also had horrible Qb's throwing to them. Wallace is awesome but he isnt in that class

Agree...Having a franchise throw to you makes all the difference in the world. Put Wallace with Sanchez and Holmes back with BR7 everything changes.

That being said, he is still a rare and very valuable wideout...But in todays cap land, you have to pick and choose carefully. And we can't afford (2) 50 mill wideouts.

jjpro11
03-14-2012, 12:07 PM
how this guy can say Wallace is going to be the best WR in the NFL is insane to me. no way in hell is he better then Fitz or Megatron. Ben is a future hall of famer and has been throwing to Wallace his entire carear, Megatron and Fitz had/have Stafford and Warner but also had horrible Qb's throwing to them. Wallace is awesome but he isnt in that class

Ben may have a HOF career, but his long-ball accuracy is inconsistent. he missed Wallace a number of times this year when he was open deep. yeah, i know, i know.. Wallace dropped the ball in Denver, so he sucks and is overrated.

put Wallace in New England and see what it does to his stats. he's a faster, more explosive version of the Randy Moss they had in 2007. now New England has a better underneath game with their young tight ends.

dcherry
03-14-2012, 12:36 PM
If you read the introduction to the article, the writer, Bill Barnwell, is writing the article as if he is the agent of Mike Wallace. So extreme hyperbole is in effect.

A really dumb way to write an article, but whatever.

pete74
03-14-2012, 01:56 PM
Ben may have a HOF career, but his long-ball accuracy is inconsistent. he missed Wallace a number of times this year when he was open deep. yeah, i know, i know.. Wallace dropped the ball in Denver, so he sucks and is overrated.

put Wallace in New England and see what it does to his stats. he's a faster, more explosive version of the Randy Moss they had in 2007. now New England has a better underneath game with their young tight ends.

i dont think so. i love Wallace and want to keep him but he will never be randy moss in his prime because he dosnt have the size and seperation ability. he has speed and good hands.

tony hipchest
03-14-2012, 02:52 PM
moss was a headcase who only really reached his prime in 2 years of his entire career. as great as his career was he left a ton on the table and underpreformed.

I'd love to see what wallace would do with randall cunningham, culpepper, and brady throwing him the ball on a team that knows how to score in the redzone and doesnt claim to be a grind it out running team.

3rdandlong
03-14-2012, 04:39 PM
Wallace would be even better if Roethlisberger was a little more accurate on the deep ball. He's overthrown Wallace more than he's hit him I would say.

cubanstogie
03-14-2012, 08:00 PM
Wallace would be even better if Roethlisberger was a little more accurate on the deep ball. He's overthrown Wallace more than he's hit him I would say.
obviously no one knows what Wallace will do the rest of his career, but at this point he was a steal as a 3rd rounder. It will be interesting to see the kind of cash he is offered after yesterdays lottery for WR's. You have to think it will be big coin. I have faith in the front office to make the right decision, the ball is in there court since they can match an offer. I just hope the Raiders don't offer a huge amount, Al is gone but the Raiders love speed and over pay just like the Redskins.

Fire Arians
03-14-2012, 08:16 PM
obviously no one knows what Wallace will do the rest of his career, but at this point he was a steal as a 3rd rounder. It will be interesting to see the kind of cash he is offered after yesterdays lottery for WR's. You have to think it will be big coin. I have faith in the front office to make the right decision, the ball is in there court since they can match an offer. I just hope the Raiders don't offer a huge amount, Al is gone but the Raiders love speed and over pay just like the Redskins.

i don't think they're in the running as they gave up their first rounder (and next year's one too?) for carson palmer

talk about idiotic freakin' trades. i can only dream of the day when our FO wants do deal with the raiders lol, their commitment to excellence at getting the short end of the stick.

unless they think giving up a first rounder isn't a problem since all their first rounders in recent memory have been total busts?

Riddle_Of_Steel
03-14-2012, 09:57 PM
Simple question:

The author makes Mike Wallace sound like the best thing to happen to football since chinstraps-- where did he disappear to for the last 8 games of this last season? Has he shown any ability yet to consistently come down with the football on intermediate to medium passing routes? Has he consistently shown the ability to learn the playbook well enough for us to be able to run the no-huddle effectively (by some accounts, the reason why we used the no-huddle so little of late, is that "certain receivers" were not familiar enough with the playbook yet)?

He still seems like a one-trick pony to me, albeit a very fast one....Antonio Brown seems like much more of an all-around threat. He must get sick of living in Mike Wallace's shadow, considering that he almost equalled Wallace's production last year, and he is a 6th round pick verses Wallace's 3rd.

tony hipchest
03-14-2012, 10:46 PM
wow.

so far on steelersfever, steelerfans have taught me that DESPITE mike wallace

being a 1 trick pony...
disappearing for half of last season...
not knowing the playbook...
not being able to jump...
not being able to fight for balls...
not being able to run intermediate routes...
not being able to run short routes...
not being as good as antonio brown...
not having his qb for 6 games...
not knowing what to do in the no huddle...
not even being the #1 wr option til his 3rd year...
not being worth a measley $6 million dollars/year
not being a 1st round pick...
not being a 6th round steal...
not having great hands...
(did i leave anything out?)

still has amassed the best 1st 3 season start to ones career of any wr in the past 30 years not named moss or rice?

damn. you guys are right.... he really is marginal! i bet he would be pretty good if he could do all those things!

:chuckle: ....steelerfans.

Steel_Bus_24
03-14-2012, 11:07 PM
^^Forgot

-Doesn't have a will to win and mopes his cocky ass around


:shake01:

Bayz101
03-14-2012, 11:20 PM
Ben missed him several times at the end of the season presumably due to the ankle, and it was getting to the point where Wallace would slow down half way through the route with the ball in the air. That's called "giving up" by most fans, and I honestly wouldn't argue it, but I wouldn't agree with it either. Wallace certainly isn't the best receiver in football. Not even in the same breath as Fitz, in my opinion, and I wouldn't pay him close to what Fitz makes.

However, he's probably only going to improve. I honestly think Brown's the better all-around receiver, but there's no doubting Wallace is the weapon.

Riddle_Of_Steel
03-17-2012, 01:15 AM
wow.

so far on steelersfever, steelerfans have taught me that DESPITE mike wallace

being a 1 trick pony...
disappearing for half of last season...
not knowing the playbook...
not being able to jump...
not being able to fight for balls...
not being able to run intermediate routes...
not being able to run short routes...
not being as good as antonio brown...
not having his qb for 6 games...
not knowing what to do in the no huddle...
not even being the #1 wr option til his 3rd year...
not being worth a measley $6 million dollars/year
not being a 1st round pick...
not being a 6th round steal...
not having great hands...
(did i leave anything out?)

still has amassed the best 1st 3 season start to ones career of any wr in the past 30 years not named moss or rice?

damn. you guys are right.... he really is marginal! i bet he would be pretty good if he could do all those things!

:chuckle: ....steelerfans.

No need to be cheeky-- I can beat anyone at that game if need be.

Stats are just numbers and should not account for 100% of your decision making.

Remember, Phillip Rivers was leading the #1 offense and the Chargers had the #1 defense last year, and how did that pan out on the field? Remember, we had the #1 pass defense this last year, by a margin, and we could not stop a rookie WR and Tim Teblow from torching our secondary three times on the same exact play.

Stats are NOT the end all of any sports discussion.

Of course Mike Wallace is going to have some of the bext yard per catch of any receiver-- he only knows how to run one route-- the 45 yard bomber. And chances are, if Ben bothers to throw it to him on the 45-yarder, it is going to be a completion and TD, otherwise ben would not have thrown it in the first place.

Stats can be misleading.....his 1000 yards all came during the first half of the season, before many teams were playing their A game and November football. he sems to disappear when the opposition steps up even the slightest or once teams start to amass some video of him.

But so far, in close playoff games when we only needed him to make a medium length catch, he ran the wrong route and landed us a game-losing interception instead.....TWICE.

Thus far, Antonio Brown is ten times the receiver that Walace is, IMHO. Much more complete player-- better attitude, better work ethic, better all-around athlete (he scored a TD on his very first touch in the NFL, mind you), better all-around receiver, and almost as fast as Wallace. Per other team members, Brown is in the film room compulsively and stays for hours after everyone else leaves to study film more. Wallace is more concerned with catchy nikcnames like "Young Money", a title I don't think he has earned yet. He has not had a game-changing catch in any playoff game we have been to yet.

Let the Patriots shed a first round pick for him-- we need an offensive line and defensive secondary more than we need killer receivers. We won a SB with the likes of Cedric Wilson and Nate Washignton at WR..... If we can protect Ben, this team is going places.

In two seasons having your unstoppable Mike Wallace at WR, we dumped a SB because he ran the wrong route and got bounced from the playoffs by arguably the worst team in the postseason. Clearly, he is not as vital to our offensive identity and gameplan as one would think. We have done miles better with the "old and done" Ward....

Not saying that Wallace "stinks" or is not a great WR in the making, but he is NOT worth breaking the bank for. If it comes down to it, we need to break the bank on a new NT more than we need a WR.

Bayz101
03-17-2012, 04:18 AM
Wallace is a weapon, and probably the most dangerous weapon in our receiving core, but that doesn't mean he's the best all-around receiver. I happen to think Brown's the better overall receiver, but that opinion can be biased because of Wallace's double coverage on a multitude of plays. The funny thing is though, defenses didn't double-cover Wallace a lot during the end of the season due to Ben's inability to hit the deep throw. Brown, of course, was still making big catches. Hell, even Sanders made some damn good catches.

Also, i'm not even bringing up statistics. I honestly think the only thing that's relevant is how you perform in football played from November-January, and of course, February. I'd like to keep those stats next time the opportunity presents itself. That's what really matters. If you want to bring stats into this, take a look at Brown's. He wasn't behind by much, was he? I wouldn't break the bank for any receiver, and that includes Brown. Not worth it, we need a line to keep Ben upright or he'll have no time to get the ball to one in the first place.

Bayz101
03-17-2012, 04:27 AM
1. Wallace
2. Brown
3. Sanders (Until he's injured, lol)

The young guns are starters, and Wallace will play his best ball heading into free-agency, where he'll likely be on the first flight out of the burgh.

tony hipchest
03-17-2012, 04:29 AM
"stats dont matter" is just a generic catchphrase most people like to toss out there when they have absolutely no argument against good empirical stats and data.

what the hell do they think larry fitz, a. johnson and megatron get paid for? lombardi trophies and team wins?

if hines ward had much better stats and 4 more pro bowls he woulda been a top 5 paid wr in the league and probably not a steeler.

it is what it is. catchphrase cant erase that reality.

Bayz101
03-17-2012, 04:42 AM
This is like throwing a rubber ball at a wall, it'll come back at you, and hit you in the nuts if your not careful. My point is:

If Wallace left the team, i'd cringe at the thought of our dangerous speed receiver no longer burning the defense.
If Brown left the team, i'd cringe at the thought of our team MVP and consistent weapon helping other teams win.

The second half of last year wasn't a good one for Wallace, and Brown was consistent all year. It doesn't really mean anything, because receivers usually play more than just one year in their careers, but i'm not sure it boost's Wallace's value as a receiver in free-ageny, especially considering he did better in total yardage the year before :hunch:

Or at least it shouldn't. And if stats matter, that certainly does, no?

Brown proved last year that he's a weapon, but Wallace has been doing this for two years now (making #1 receiver plays and yardage). Next year will be the true test, and i'm hoping he stays healthy. I think a lombardi would be enough to convince all of our talent to come back for a few years.

I'm going to bed. Agree to disagree. I'm not the only one who doesn't think losing Wallace would be the end of the world, and i'm not the only one who's frustrated with the pay these guy's are making. But one thing we can both agree on is that Wallace is our #1 guy, even if (last year) Brown proved as the better all around receiver. I think he just wanted it more :hunch:

Of course anyone could dispute that claim as well, especially if they really like Wallace. I'm out, off to bed.

Edit: Brown proving as the better all-around target last year is my opinion, and my opinion is the reason i'm posting here. Pretty sure a lot of people share this opinion as well. But that's just the thing. I think Brown proved to be the better all-around receiver last year. Next year? Maybe not.

defence
03-17-2012, 12:17 PM
No need to be cheeky-- I can beat anyone at that game if need be.

Stats are just numbers and should not account for 100% of your decision making.

Remember, Phillip Rivers was leading the #1 offense and the Chargers had the #1 defense last year, and how did that pan out on the field? Remember, we had the #1 pass defense this last year, by a margin, and we could not stop a rookie WR and Tim Teblow from torching our secondary three times on the same exact play.

Stats are NOT the end all of any sports discussion.

Of course Mike Wallace is going to have some of the bext yard per catch of any receiver-- he only knows how to run one route-- the 45 yard bomber. And chances are, if Ben bothers to throw it to him on the 45-yarder, it is going to be a completion and TD, otherwise ben would not have thrown it in the first place.

Stats can be misleading.....his 1000 yards all came during the first half of the season, before many teams were playing their A game and November football. he sems to disappear when the opposition steps up even the slightest or once teams start to amass some video of him.

But so far, in close playoff games when we only needed him to make a medium length catch, he ran the wrong route and landed us a game-losing interception instead.....TWICE.

Thus far, Antonio Brown is ten times the receiver that Walace is, IMHO. Much more complete player-- better attitude, better work ethic, better all-around athlete (he scored a TD on his very first touch in the NFL, mind you), better all-around receiver, and almost as fast as Wallace. Per other team members, Brown is in the film room compulsively and stays for hours after everyone else leaves to study film more. Wallace is more concerned with catchy nikcnames like "Young Money", a title I don't think he has earned yet. He has not had a game-changing catch in any playoff game we have been to yet.

Let the Patriots shed a first round pick for him-- we need an offensive line and defensive secondary more than we need killer receivers. We won a SB with the likes of Cedric Wilson and Nate Washignton at WR..... If we can protect Ben, this team is going places.

In two seasons having your unstoppable Mike Wallace at WR, we dumped a SB because he ran the wrong route and got bounced from the playoffs by arguably the worst team in the postseason. Clearly, he is not as vital to our offensive identity and gameplan as one would think. We have done miles better with the "old and done" Ward....

Not saying that Wallace "stinks" or is not a great WR in the making, but he is NOT worth breaking the bank for. If it comes down to it, we need to break the bank on a new NT more than we need a WR.

Very well said. I hope another team is stupid enough to give up a first rounder; but trust me; don't hold your breath. I loved reading all the older posts suggesting he would be gone. LOL; where did he go. He will play with the steelers this year and after 2012; who knows. Just get Brown under contract and for all you speed guys; just draft another one. They're a dime a dozen; just look you will find.

pete74
03-17-2012, 12:51 PM
The only way i would want to lose Wallace is if we use the 1stacid rounder we get to draft TE Fleener from Stanford. Ben would be dangerous having two great TE's to dump off to

OX1947
03-17-2012, 01:46 PM
I knew he wouldn't get picked up. Pats are getting Brandon Lloyd. If I am wrong and someone does, the likelihood is a high 1st, and I would not have a problem with that.

steeltheone
03-17-2012, 03:20 PM
I knew he wouldn't get picked up. Pats are getting Brandon Lloyd. If I am wrong and someone does, the likelihood is a high 1st, and I would not have a problem with that. I stil think it will be the Bungles...

OX1947
03-17-2012, 05:04 PM
I stil think it will be the Bungles...

Not a chance. Mike Brown is cheap and notoriously stupid. He isn't paying 10 mil plus for two receivers. AJ Green is gonna be a mega star and will command big change soon. He isn't gonna pay Mike Wallace 12 million per and give up the 21st pick and then give AJ Green 15 million plus when the cap goes up and salaries continue to go up.

jjpro11
03-17-2012, 06:43 PM
highly doubtful.. but i guess the 49ers could use Wallace as leverage to lure Manning.

Steeldude
03-17-2012, 07:23 PM
Misleading. In Arians' pathetic scheme Wallace was thrown long bombs very often. IMO, Wallace has not shown he has the ability to fight for the ball or demonstrate above average hands. Also, his route running is not that crisp.

With that being said, Wallace is a good WR, but the Steelers shouldn't break the bank when he becomes a UFA in 2013.

defence
03-17-2012, 10:21 PM
Misleading. In Arians' pathetic scheme Wallace was thrown long bombs very often. IMO, Wallace has not shown he has the ability to fight for the ball or demonstrate above average hands. Also, his route running is not that crisp.

With that being said, Wallace is a good WR, but the Steelers shouldn't break the bank when he becomes a UFA in 2013.

Trust me. If Wallace was THAT GOOD like some seem to think; he'd be gone already. I think he is a good receiver but no team is going to give up a first rounder for him.:tt03:

Steelersfan87
03-17-2012, 10:36 PM
He's a Pro Bowl WR; that's enough to keep around.

OX1947
03-17-2012, 11:50 PM
Manningham signs with the niners for 2 years. Niners are officially out of the Wallace sweepstakes.

tony hipchest
03-18-2012, 01:34 AM
Trust me. If Wallace was THAT GOOD like some seem to think; he'd be gone already. I think he is a good receiver but no team is going to give up a first rounder for him.:tt03:trust you?

why?

plenty of people have said that no team will give up a first rounder for him, yet nobody can answer why teams have recently given up so much (and much more) for joey galloway, roy williams, deion branch, and keyshawn johnson.

wallace may not get offered the tender value (teams seem to know the steelers are intent on matching it) but it wont be because his is not AS GOOD as you suggest.

plus youre wrong on a technicality. teams can offer wallace whatever they want and he STILL wont be gone for another 7 days.

Steeldude
03-18-2012, 01:49 AM
He'll be gone in 2013. I was hoping some team would take him so the Steelers would get something of value in return.

tony hipchest
03-18-2012, 02:32 AM
...or our most expensive lineman (who also happens to be our most neglected ball catcher), heath miller, is gone.

kan_t
03-18-2012, 02:58 AM
He'll be gone in 2013. I was hoping some team would take him so the Steelers would get something of value in return.
Not if the Steelers tag him.

harts
03-18-2012, 03:36 AM
Pay him or pay the price
this guy could be lights out for the next 7-8 years
Haley's new offense could hurt his numbers though
He is not yet Calvin Johnson/Fitzgerald

But he is getting there
I'd say he is a B+ receiver right now but withthe potential to be an A
A+ is Calvin Johnson/FItz
he will always be a notch below them

pete74
03-18-2012, 06:19 AM
Not if the Steelers tag him.

we wont have the money to tag him. yes the cap will go up but so does everybody's contracts because of them dropping it this year to get us under the cap.

defence
03-18-2012, 08:40 AM
trust you?

why?

plenty of people have said that no team will give up a first rounder for him, yet nobody can answer why teams have recently given up so much (and much more) for joey galloway, roy williams, deion branch, and keyshawn johnson.

wallace may not get offered the tender value (teams seem to know the steelers are intent on matching it) but it wont be because his is not AS GOOD as you suggest.

plus youre wrong on a technicality. teams can offer wallace whatever they want and he STILL wont be gone for another 7 days.

Sorry tony for my bad technicality. What i meant to say was; if he was worth giving up a first rounder plus all the cash(contract) a team will have to give up for him; do you not think a team would have put an offer sheet for him alredy??? Look buddy; i dont want to argue with you; but you suggest that teams are not offering him a contract because the steelers will match it. How are the steelers gonna match it with there cap the way it is?? Bottom line is the steelers put the 2.7 on him because it was a smart business descision and they will not fork over 8 to 9 million for this guy because he isn't worth it. And other teams are not gonna give up there first rounder to grab him. Why??? he isn't worth it. Cheers !!!!:drink:

Curtain_of_Steel
03-18-2012, 08:56 AM
They will have the money to tag him next year and the year after. It doesn't matter that "everyone" else will have cap space next year and the year after. It matters that the Steelers have the cap space, thats it.

As I stated before the Steelers have about 15million left in reworks they can do if needed. Finding cap space isn't an issue. Agreeing to match a high contract is the issue and sacrificing something else dwn the road.

Fins now are agaisnt the wall, they are out of it, plus their pick is way to high for Wallace anyway. 49ers, out, pats out.
Unless Manning goes to the Broncos they dont meet the current criteria Wallace said he wanted. Even with Manning I don't think they will go after Wallace and give up a pick.

This years pace on Wr's definately shows Brown is probably safe next year as well. All plays out well for the Steelers.