PDA

View Full Version : Steelers Over Or Under 10.5 Wins?


Atlanta Dan
07-30-2012, 06:59 PM
Here is someone who likes the Steelers chances this year (and is not sold on the Patriots):thumbsup:

It's NFL team over/unders time!

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2012/0730/roethlisberger_ben_g_mp_640.jpg&w=640&h=360

New England Patriots
Under 12.5 wins (-135)
$200 to win $148.15

I was making a quick stop at the LVH one day to cash a bet, saw that total, and did a double take: 12.5 wins?! Sure, it's the Patriots, but fading four losses is tough for any team to do, let alone one with a propensity for starting street free agents and inexperienced wide receivers in their secondary. The New England schedule isn't very tough, but remember — you basically can't have anything go wrong if you want to win 13 games. If Tom Brady gets hurt for any stretch of time, it's an automatic win for me. If Rob Gronkowski goes down, it's going to look pretty good. And even if everyone stays healthy and the Patriots play at their typically high level, they're probably going to have to fade all of their classic late-season we're-not-really-trying games to hit the total


Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 10.5 wins (+130)
$75 to win $97.50

Isn't it reasonable to expect the Steelers to be better than the Patriots this season? They were famously bad at forcing turnovers last year, combining a ridiculously soft interception rate with terrible luck at recovering fumbles. That should all change in 2012. Pittsburgh also had a great draft, upgrading their porous offensive line by adding two possible new starters up front, and they should get a healthier season from Ben Roethlisberger. They're also going to benefit from a diminished Ravens team that's already lost their only notable pass rusher, Terrell Suggs, for the season.

And there's more!

The Title-Winning Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers
Win the AFC North (+120)
$100 to win $120.00

Again, this is the logical successor to my thinking about the Steelers going over their 10.5-win total. With the injury to Suggs, a likely decline coming in Cincinnati, and the Browns continuing to be the Browns, I can't imagine anyone else in that division winning 11 games. Of course, even if the Steelers fail to pull off the 11-win season, they could still go 10-6 or even 9-7 and win this bet if everyone else in the division has disappointing seasons

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8212980/welcome-another-season-financially-motivated-educated-guesses

Opinions are definitely split on the Steelers prospects, even without the further complication of when Wallace will report - some see a division title (that includes me) while others see a third place finish in the division

Fire Arians
07-30-2012, 07:10 PM
the patriots* are way overrated, until the patriots* learn how to play defense, they won't be a championship team

they will drop 1 or 2 division games and will lose to baltimore

ravens without suggs hurts their chances to win the AFCN but they will still be strong. Cincy hasn't posted back to back winning seasons in a long time, but Andy Dalton, as much as I hate to say it, is for real. The bengals are not going to be an easy win like they used to be.

with that said, i feel good about this season for the steelers and would predict an 11-5 season with the AFCN crown

Vis
07-30-2012, 07:12 PM
Over"...........

tanda10506
07-30-2012, 07:30 PM
I know there's a lot of transition but I think we can go 12-4 again. Two losses early wouldn't be a big surprise. Splitting either with Cincy or Baltimore is likely. That would be 13-3 but there is usually a game somewhere that we drop to a team we shouldn't. That may change this year. If we keep scoring no matter how far we are ahead we won't "play down". it's hard to see the defense break down in games like that and not blame it on them, but when we play down it's usually because we score some points quick and then sit on it on offense, leaving the defense on the field the majority of the rest of the game. I don't think we will be seeing any scrub teams catching back up or any good teams making a big drive on us at the end this year if the offense just does it's fair share, let alone if it excel's like I think it will.

Blitzburghfan
07-30-2012, 07:33 PM
Over....but I'm a homer

the Steelers win the North, with Cincy getting in on a Wild Card, and I think, maybe hope, the Ravens backslide this year, they are old and going in with a lot of injuries, Ray Rice got paid, so he won't be as effective (just my opinion)

TheVet
07-30-2012, 07:39 PM
I like over 10.5, but winning the AFC North should be offered at much better odds than +120, shop around. You should be able to find a better deal.

ricardisimo
07-30-2012, 07:49 PM
Too early to tell just how good we will be, but I tend to start at 12-4 as an average season for us, then adjust. So, over, in other words.

Steelersfan87
07-30-2012, 09:13 PM
The Patriots should have a better defense this year. They drafted two likely starters at DE and ILB, they'll be getting Ras-I Dowling after spending almost all of last season injured, and...well, their pass defense was just historically bad last year. There's no way that happens again.

tanda10506
07-30-2012, 09:23 PM
I think the strength of the NFC East will be a big factor. I honestly have never worried about Dallas and I just don't see them being better this year. The Redskins should be a win as we will have tape to analyze RG3. But the Eagles have the potential to be great, and the Giants might pick up where they left off, which could turn both those games into a drag out nail biter and I could see us losing one of them.

ricardisimo
07-30-2012, 09:40 PM
The Patriots should have a better defense this year. They drafted two likely starters at DE and ILB, they'll be getting Ras-I Dowling after spending almost all of last season injured, and...well, their pass defense was just historically bad last year. There's no way that happens again.
They've been 30th or lower against the pass three times in the past five or six years. Why wouldn't they do it again? Even more surprisingly - considering they seem to be so often up by double-digits before the half - is how rarely they are top-10 against the run.

I happen to think that Bill Belichick is profoundly over-rated as a draft über-god. You would think that he could draft anyone at wide receiver to play catch with Brady, but so far as I can tell Julian Edelman is as close to a hit as he's come. And considering what a defensive genius he is, you'd think he could do better at DB than he has.

I guess I'm biased, but we'll see if this year's draft helps them at all. You know his first three picks will be starting, because they don't follow the Steelers' Way up there. I doubt it will help, that's all.

zcoop
07-30-2012, 09:41 PM
Over no doubt, I'm a homer too. With Wallace, way over. We win the division either way cause the ratbirds will fade. They played over their heads last season.

Steelersfan87
07-30-2012, 10:33 PM
They've been 30th or lower against the pass three times in the past five or six years. Why wouldn't they do it again? Even more surprisingly - considering they seem to be so often up by double-digits before the half - is how rarely they are top-10 against the run.

Well, their passing defense was historically bad last year -- they and the Packers gave up the most passing yards in a single season ever, though I can't remember which was worse. They had a very unusual lack of depth in the secondary last year after some key injuries, which is unlikely to repeat again. Devin McCourty is not the Pro Bowler he was his rookie year, but he's also not as bad as he was last year either. He's a good CB, I watched him (along with his twin) at Rutgers (granted, I was surprised he was taken in the first round). Partner him with Ras-I Dowling, who I really liked before the draft, and the secondary should be better. Probably still a bottom third type of situation, but not historically bad.