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Vis
09-22-2012, 01:12 PM
Heartland Monitor Poll: Obama Leads 50 Percent to 43 Percent

President Obama has opened a solid lead over Mitt Romney by largely reassembling the “coalition of the ascendant” that powered the Democrat to his landmark 2008 victory, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll has found.

The survey found Obama leading Romney by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, with key groups in the president’s coalition such as minorities, young people, and upscale white women providing him support comparable to their levels in 2008.

The survey, conducted by Ed Reilly and Jeremy Ruch of FTI Communications, a communications and strategic consulting firm, surveyed 1,055 likely voters by landline and cell phone from Sept. 15-19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Full results from the survey, including a detailed look at Americans’ attitudes about opportunity and upward mobility, will be released in the Sept. 22 National Journal.

The Heartland Monitor’s results are in line with most other national surveys in recent days showing Obama establishing a measurable lead, including this week’s new Pew Research Center and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls. The saving grace for Republicans is that even as these surveys show Obama opening a consistent advantage, the president has not been able to push his support much past the critical 50 percent level, even after several difficult weeks for Romney that began with a poorly reviewed GOP convention. That suggests the president faces continued skepticism from many voters that could allow Romney to draw a second wind if he can stabilize his tempest-tossed campaign.

The poll found Obama benefiting from a small increase in optimism about the country’s direction. Among likely voters, 37 percent said the country was moving in the right direction. Even looking at all adults, the "right track" number now stands at 35 percent, its best showing since the April 2010 Heartland Monitor.

Obama’s approval rating in the new survey also ticked up to 50 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. That’s a slight improvement from May, when the survey of all adults found 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. Among all adults, Obama’s rating improved to 49 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving, also one of his best showings since January 2010.

Those gains are critical, because as always with an incumbent president, attitudes toward Obama’s performance powerfully shape the race. Among likely voters who approve of Obama’s job performance, he leads Romney in the ballot test by 93 percent to 3 percent; those who disapprove prefer Romney by 87 percent to 5 percent.

Race remains a jagged dividing line in attitudes about Obama’s performance. Just 40 percent of white likely voters give him positive job-approval marks, unchanged since May. But fully 77 percent of nonwhites say they approve of Obama’s work, up sharply from 64 percent in May.

The same stark racial divide runs through preferences in the November election. For Obama, the formula for success in 2012 can be reduced to a single equation: 80-40. If he can hold the combined 80 percent he won among all minorities in 2008, and they represent at least the 26 percent of ballots they cast last time, then he can assemble a national majority with support from merely about 40 percent of whites.

On both fronts, the survey shows the president almost exactly hitting that mark. He leads Romney among all nonwhite voters by 78 percent to 18 percent, drawing over nine in 10 African-Americans and slightly more than the two-thirds of Hispanics he carried last time.

Among whites, Obama wins 41 percent compared to Romney’s 51 percent. Obama’s showing is down slightly from the 43 percent among whites he attracted in 2008 but still enough for the president to prevail in both sides’ calculations. With more whites than non-whites either undecided or saying they intend to support another candidate, Romney is not nearly approaching the roughly three-in-five support among them he’ll likely need to win.

The survey identifies 73 percent of likely voters as white, down from 74 percent in 2008; the remaining 27 percent were either nonwhite or refused to identify their race. In a close race, even such tiny shifts in the share of the vote cast by whites and nonwhites could prove decisive.

The potential for the minority share of the vote to increase even slightly in 2012 underscores the demographic trends helping Obama to withstand a stiff headwind of economic discontent. In 2008, I described his voting base as a “coalition of the ascendant” because he performed best among groups that are themselves growing in society.

The new survey shows him largely recapturing the 2008 support he generated among the key groups in that coalition. Among voters ages 18-29, members of the enormous Millennial Generation, Obama now leads Romney by 63 percent to 27 percent. That’s comparable to the 66 percent he won among those younger voters in 2008, and a big improvement from his 44 percent among them in the May Heartland Monitor. (The new poll also found Obama winning exactly half of whites under 30, down only modestly from 2008.)

The second central pillar of his coalition of the ascendant is minorities, where his support, as noted, is nearly matching its 80 percent level from 2008.

The third central piece of his coalition is college-educated whites, particularly women. In 2008, Obama won 47 percent of college-educated whites; the new poll shows him slipping only slightly to 45 percent among them. While Obama has lost ground among college-educated men (dropping to 39 percent in the new survey from 43 percent in 2008), he remains very strong with college-educated white women, drawing 50 percent of them (compared to his 52 percent in 2008). Over the past three decades, those women have been the fastest-growing part of the white electorate.

Compared with the May Heartland Monitor, Obama has seen big increases among those three key elements of his coalition: young people, minorities, and college-educated white women. But he also has stood his ground with the toughest group for him: blue-collar whites.

In the new survey, Romney leads Obama among non-college whites by 54 percent to 37 percent, almost exactly the same margin as McCain’s 18-percentage-point advantage over the president with those voters in 2008 (when they backed the Republican by 58 percent to 40 percent). The new poll shows Obama winning only 39 percent of non-college white men and 35 percent of non-college white women; but to overcome Obama’s other strengths, Romney will need to generate even larger margins with those voters. In fact, Obama’s performance with those working-class whites has slightly improved since the May survey.

By contrast, despite all the controversy over the plan to restructure Medicare promoted by Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney’s running mate, white seniors remain a very tough audience for the president: The poll shows Romney winning almost three-fifths of them, matching McCain’s strong showing in 2008.

The survey also shows why it may be difficult for Republicans to center the election on the famous Ronald Reagan question to voters that the party highlighted at its national convention last month: Are you better off than you were four years ago?

That question divides likely voters almost exactly in thirds: in the poll, 31 percent say they are better off than four years ago, while 34 percent say they are worse off and 34 percent say they are about the same. Romney, predictably, wins more than four-fifths of voters who say they are worse off; the president, equally unsurprisingly, attracts almost nine in 10 of those who consider themselves better off.

Crucially, though, Obama holds a commanding 57 percent to 34 percent advantage among those who say their finances are unchanged. One reason for that critical tilt in his direction: Voters who say their finances are unchanged also say, by a resounding 53 percent to 33 percent margin, that they believe the country has been better off over these past four years because Obama, rather than another candidate, won in 2008.

Overall, 48 percent say they believe the country is better off because Obama won in 2008, while 41 percent say the nation would be in a stronger position today if another candidate had won.

In a related finding, 47 percent of likely voters said they believed Obama’s economic policies helped “avoid an even worse economic crisis and are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery.” By contrast, 45 percent said that his agenda has “run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses.” That’s hardly a ringing endorsement and well within the survey’s margin of error — but it represents only the second time since the Heartland Monitor began asking that question in September 2009 that a plurality has attributed positive effects to Obama’s agenda.

Taken together, all of these small movements toward Obama have produced, at least for now, a tangible advantage for the president over Romney as the race hurtles toward its final weeks.

Vincent
09-22-2012, 01:54 PM
Podophobes will dismiss Dick Morris as a shill of the "right", ignoring his relationship to the clinton White House, and knowledge of polling and all things political.

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/
Why The Polls Understate Romney Vote
By Dick Morris on September 21, 2012

Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.

In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.

The party of satan isn't preparing retirement digs (http://forums.steelersfever.com/showpost.php?p=1030816&postcount=54) because they expect to win.

Fire Haley
09-23-2012, 07:20 AM
Romney/Ryan 55%
Obama/Biden 44%

http://unskewedpolls.com/qstarnewsquickpoll.cfm

Atlanta Dan
09-23-2012, 07:56 AM
Romney/Ryan 55%
Obama/Biden 44%

http://unskewedpolls.com/qstarnewsquickpoll.cfm

:toofunny:

Vis
09-23-2012, 08:29 AM
Podophobes will dismiss Dick Morris as a shill of the "right", ignoring his relationship to the clinton White House, and knowledge of polling and all things political.

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/
Why The Polls Understate Romney Vote
By Dick Morris on September 21, 2012

Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.

In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.

The party of satan isn't preparing retirement digs (http://forums.steelersfever.com/showpost.php?p=1030816&postcount=54) because they expect to win.

Morris' gift has nothing to do with polling. He's a reptile brain expert. Every word he writes is for the reaction and subsequent justification. If you read him and believe him you have been manipulated as he planned.

Vincent, it's wasted on you because everything about you is reptile.

ricardisimo
09-23-2012, 12:06 PM
I still don't understand what Vinnie's problem is with Obama. He kills Muslims daily just for being Muslim. I would have thought that would get Vincent's vote every day of the week.

tony hipchest
09-23-2012, 12:36 PM
Romney/Ryan 55%
Obama/Biden 44%

http://unskewedpolls.com/qstarnewsquickpoll.cfm

"...this is silly"

CXl1GkWWGmA

Vis
09-23-2012, 12:43 PM
I still don't understand what Vinnie's problem is with Obama. He kills Muslims daily just for being Muslim. I would have thought that would get Vincent's vote every day of the week.

Obama doesn't hate gay people.

tony hipchest
09-23-2012, 01:24 PM
Morris' gift has nothing to do with polling. He's a reptile brain expert. Every word he writes is for the reaction and subsequent justification. If you read him and believe him you have been manipulated as he planned.

Vincent, it's wasted on you because everything about you is reptile.

total reptilian. infact if you peel back the scales on his forehead you will find the number of the beast.

ricardisimo
09-23-2012, 01:48 PM
Obama doesn't hate gay people.
Ah! That is a problem. OK. Now I understand.

But what if he's killing gay Muslims? :scratchchin:

MasterOfPuppets
09-23-2012, 03:08 PM
Ah! That is a problem. OK. Now I understand.

But what if he's killing gay Muslims? :scratchchin:
killing gay muslims ? :toofunny:

he threw a meet and greet orgy for em .... every attendie recieved a statue of liberty butt plug and and red white and blue gerbil..:sofunny:

Protests in Pakistan over US gay rights event
(AFP) – Jul 4, 2011
KARACHI — Islamists held rallies in major Pakistani cities Monday to denounce a gay rights event hosted last month by the United States embassy, calling for a "holy war" against ally Washington.
Around 100 demonstrators in the southern port city of Karachi protested, calling the meeting "an assault on Pakistan's Islamic culture", while there were similar demonstrations in the capital Islamabad and in Lahore.
"We condemn the American conspiracy to encourage bisexualism in our country," said Mohammad Hussain Mehnati, city chief of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Pakistan's largest Islamic party, while leading a rally.
"They have destroyed us physically, imposed the so-called war on terrorism on us and now they have unleashed cultural terrorism on us," he said above the din of slogans of "Death to America" by his party cadres.
"This meeting shows cruel America has unleashed a storm of immoral values on our great Islamic values, which we'll resist at all costs," Mehnati said.
A statement posted on the US Embassy website said its Islamabad office hosted its first lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) Pride Celebration on June 26.
"This gathering demonstrated continued US Embassy support for human rights, including LGBT rights, in Pakistan at a time when those rights are increasingly under attack from extremist elements throughout Pakistani society," it said.
In the capital, about 30 youths from Islami Jamiat Tulba (IJT), the student wing of JI, burnt a US flag and shouted "we are ready for jihad against the US", referring to holy war.
A banner at the rally read: "Americans, we will not allow you to spread your vulgar and ugly civilisation in Pakistan."
"Through our peaceful rally we want to give message through the media that we will not allow these people (gays) to live here and they should be immediately deported out of Pakistan," said Noorul Bashar, of IJT Islamabad.
In the eastern city of Lahore, some 150 students from IJT and about two dozen activists of pro-Taliban Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam also held anti-US rallies, police and witnesses said.

Vincent
09-24-2012, 09:11 AM
In the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent).

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html
Romney winning with middle-class families
By ED GOEAS and BRIAN NIENABER | 9/24/12 4:34 AM EDT

In early August, with our Republican analysis of the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, we wrote “… this election will remain close until the final weeks of the campaign. There will be ups and downs for both campaigns throughout the next 13 weeks, but the basic dynamics that are driving this electorate and framing this election remain well in place.” Two conventions, and tens of millions of campaign dollars later, we continue to hold that belief. While there have been dozens of polls released during the past six weeks that have had Mitt Romney up by as much as 4 points and Barack Obama up by as much 8 or 9, those variations have had more to do with sampling variations than with real movement in the campaign.

Yes, there have been gaffes on both sides that have been the focus of both the news media and opposing campaigns, but the dynamics that have been the real drivers of the campaign, the economy and deeply negative feelings about the direction of the country, have not changed. There have also been negative stories about the internal operations, messaging and strategy of both presidential campaigns. In August, leading into the Republican convention, there were multiple stories about the Obama campaign operation and internal fights about both message and strategic direction that led one to believe the wheels were coming off. Now it is the Romney campaign’s turn.

The past several weeks have been filled with news stories, editorials and columns heaping criticism on the tactics and strategy of the Romney campaign. Many of these opinion pieces even suggested that Romney’s only hope for winning is to make substantial changes to his campaign. Much of this analysis is based on the premise that Romney is out of touch and has not been making an affirmative case to middle-class voters. His comments at a private fundraiser in May were pointed to as an illustration that he could never identify with and win the support of many middle-class voters. We took a special look at middle-class voters, and middle-class families in particular, in this latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll and found that not to be the case. In fact, on every measure it is Romney who is winning the battle for the support of middle-class families.

Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent) – which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August. In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent). Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate. These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.

All of this data make clear that Romney has won the strong support of middle-class families and is leading the president on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot. In fact, when respondents were asked who, Obama or Romney, would best handle a variety of issues, Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9 percent), foreign policy (+3 percent), spending (+15 percent), taxes (+7 percent), Medicare (+2 percent), and jobs (+10 percent). Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Romney on was “standing up for the middle class” (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls.

Looking at this presidential election overall, intensity among voters is high with Republicans, Democrats, and now independents, and is at levels more comparable with the final days of a presidential election than six weeks out from Election Day. In fact, fully 80 percent of voters now say that they are extremely likely to vote. Even with the past few weeks containing some of the toughest days of earned media for the Romney campaign, and perhaps as a surprise to Washington insiders, Romney continues to win Republicans (Romney by a net +87 percent) by the same margin Obama is winning with Democrats (Obama by a net +88 percent), and is still winning with independents (+2 percent). Romney has majority support with voters over the age of 45 (+7 percent), with men (+6 percent), with white women (+9 percent), and with married voters (+14 percent). In addition, Romney has solidified his base. Support among conservative voters exceeds 70 percent (73 percent), his support among very conservative voters exceeds 80 percent (83 percent), and his support among Republicans exceeds 90 percent (91 percent). Romney is also receiving a higher level of support among Hispanics (40 percent), which is driven by higher support from Hispanic men.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake has often made the point that Democratic voters are becoming more secular and Republicans more faith based. That certainly appears to be holding up in this election. Digging a little deeper on the presidential ballot, Romney has majority support (51 percent) among Catholics, which in past presidential elections has been one of the most predictive demographic groups of the eventual outcome. Even further, Romney is a winning majority across all religions amongst those who attend services at least weekly (59 percent) or monthly (52 percent), while Obama is winning among those who attend less frequently, never, or are nonbelievers.

For most voters, however, this election is still about pocketbook issues. Fully 66 percent of voters select a pocketbook issue as their top concern. The Romney camp should feel good going into the three presidential debates knowing he has majority support (Romney 53 percent/Obama 44 percent) from these economically focused voters.

In fact, even with all of the misleading partisan attacks on the proposals from Ryan to reform Medicare, a majority of seniors (61 percent) select a pocketbook issue and not Medicare as their top issue of concern and nearly 6 in 10 seniors (58 percent) are voting for the Romney-Ryan ticket.

In addition to their high level of intensity about casting a ballot, many voters are already notably engaged in the campaign. A strong majority of voters (60 percent) say they watched both the Republican and the Democratic national conventions. The ballot among these highly attentive voters is tied with 3 percent undecided. The conventions took a race that was a statistical tie, and simply drove up the vote intensity of all voters. At the same time, there are enough undecided and soft voters remaining for either candidate to win. In fact, even at this stage of the campaign, 13 percent of those making a choice on the presidential ballot indicate that they would consider voting for the other candidate.

A significant number of voters report that the upcoming presidential and vice presidential debates will be extremely (11 percent) or very (12 percent) important to their vote decision. (Twenty-six percent of Obama’s supporters currently place this high level of importance on the debates as does 20 percent of Romney supporters.) This means the debates are one of the best opportunities available for Romney to take votes from Obama. If Romney can continue to make a solid case about turning around the economy and the direction of the country in contrast to the president’s failed economic policies, these voters will be watching and many of them are currently Obama supporters.

Presidential reelection races are almost always about the incumbent and whether or not they should be given an additional four years in office. This race looks to be no different. There is no sign of any good economic news on the horizon and two-thirds of the American electorate is focused on pocketbook issues as their top concern. Fifty-seven percent of these voters disapprove of the job the president is doing on the economy, 62 percent disapprove in his handling of the budget and federal spending, and 54 percent believe that Romney would be better at job creation. Yes, Romney has the issue advantage with these pocketbook-focused voters, and is winning their support by 53 percent to Obama’s 44 percent.
More important, in this latest set of data in the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, is the fact that Romney is also winning by a strong 14-point margin over Obama with middle-class families, a group of voters that is not only a majority of the American electorate, but is usually seen as the ultimate target group in any presidential election.

Atlanta Dan
09-24-2012, 06:05 PM
In the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent).

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html
Romney winning with middle-class families

Vincent - i am absolutely positive this was an honest mistake, but for some reason you cut out the first part of the headline to the Politico article to which you linked:chuckle:

This is the full headline

Republican poll analysis: Romney winning with middle-class families

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html

Politico does a "Democratic poll analysis" of the same polling data

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81586.html

So the story to which you link is on its face intended to be spin

There also is this fun fact - when you go the actual data upon which the articles are based it does not appear the "Republican poll analysis" is based on the actual polling data

srw3RdiIlrQ

If you go to page 115 of the data it looks like Obama and Romney are tied at 48% with 4% undecided of the self-defined "middle class" voters, with 43% of middle class voters definitely voting for Obama and 40% definitely voting for Romney

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/polling_data_sept2012.html

So much for Mitt's 14 point lead with the "middle class":noidea:

tony hipchest
09-24-2012, 06:10 PM
vincent caught in forked tongue deception once again?

SHOCKER!

evil deceitful lies strikes back! (i wouldnt expect anything less from a member of the party of satan)

SteelCityMom
09-24-2012, 07:01 PM
That's it. I'm voting for the E-Trade baby. And I'm going to tell that to the next pollster who calls me too.

Vincent
09-24-2012, 08:10 PM
So the story to which you link is on its face intended to be spin

The whole thread is spin.

See shocked face.

Here, equal time...

SeJbOU4nmHQ

Vis
09-26-2012, 09:01 AM
September 26, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Florida: Obama 53%, Romney 44% (NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (InsiderAdvantage)

Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 43% (NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, Romney 42% (NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 43% (Franklin & Marshall)

Fire Haley
09-26-2012, 10:28 AM
Quinnipiac - Soviet-style polls....setting the stage for their "The election was stolen!!!" cries


"Stunner: Obama Opens Big Leads in Another Skewed Poll"

http://www.jammiewf.com/assets/www.nytimes.com-2012-9-26-7-33-151.png

http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/stunner-obama-opens-big-leads-in-another-skewed-poll/

Atlanta Dan
09-26-2012, 10:57 AM
Quinnipiac - Soviet-style polls....setting the stage for their "The election was stolen!!!" cries

"Soviet-style"? - why not "Bolshevik" or "Red Chinese style" polls?:noidea:

“The Pollsters Are Biased” Is the New “The Reporters Are Biased”

You’re entitled to your own opinion but not to your own facts; that political dictum was coined by the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, because he was no fun. Well, good news, folks! Now you can have your own facts! Even better, when it comes to campaign polls you don’t like, you can now have your own numbers!

The concept / conspiracy theory that election polling this year is “skewed” toward oversampling Democratic voters–meaning they give falsely strong results for Obama–has, through social media and the Drudge Report, reached full-on Internet meme status. (Go on Twitter after any major poll release, search for “Obama poll” or “Romney poll” and watch your screen fill with disgruntled amateur statisticians muttering about “D +9 sampling.”) And now the polling conspiracists have their own website, UnSkewedPolls.com, which essentially takes existing polls and changes the numbers so that Mitt Romney is winning them....

But consider what the “polls are biased” meme asks us to believe. That dozens of national and local polls are deliberately skewing their results to find a greater proportion of Democratic voters than there are. (Not only that, but the private campaign polling that Republicans themselves say bodes poorly for Romney is also biased for Obama!) And/or: voters themselves are—from guilt? political correctness? peer pressure?—reporting themselves as identifying Democratic more than they actually do. Evidently they didn’t do this in 2008, at the apex of Obama-mania–else the pre-election polling would have shown Obama with a 20% blowout lead–but they’re in the tank now, in concert–all of them.

Independent polling firms. Educational institutions. Local media. National media. The Wall Street Journal and Fox News—that’s right, Rupert Murdoch’s media properties are in there lifting away to give Obama a second term! What’s more, they’re all knowingly, erroneously reporting results that not only can be, but by definition will be, refuted by vote returns. Media outlets that rely on polls for credibility, pollsters that rely on accuracy for their very businesses’ existence–they’re ready to blow it all in a few weeks just to give Obama four more years.

http://entertainment.time.com/2012/09/25/the-pollsters-are-biased-is-the-new-the-reporters-are-biased/

Fire Haley
09-26-2012, 11:26 AM
"Soviet-style"?

With a Marxist leader in power and a state bought media as his henchmen, any pretext of fairness goes out the window.

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/002331501/4645987640_marxism_xlarge.jpeg

http://gulagbound.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/obama-marx.db1Kppcjpg.jpg

http://rightturnforever.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Obama-the-Marxist.jpg

Atlanta Dan
09-26-2012, 11:34 AM
With a Marxist leader in power and a state bought media as his henchmen, any pretext of fairness goes out the window.

Got it - so they are really Marxist polls? (since comparing a weak kneed liberal like Obama to the real men who ran the Soviet Union would be an insult to the Soviets)

:drink::thumbsup:

ricardisimo
09-26-2012, 06:24 PM
As I recall, Soviet-style elections had one candidate, and the party members voted up or down on him/her. That is much better than what the Democrats offered their members this year... not even a rubber stamp for them.

Still, is the claim here that the Republicans aren't even running a candidate for the general election? Is Obama running unopposed? :huh:

Fire Haley
09-26-2012, 08:11 PM
“When Obama is in the White House for a second term I'll take it all off!” - Madonna

http://cbsfresh1027.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/madonna_nyc_lenti49.jpg?w=420&h=315

Vote Romney!

ricardisimo
09-27-2012, 05:53 AM
“When Obama is in the White House for a second term I'll take it all off!” - Madonna

http://cbsfresh1027.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/madonna_nyc_lenti49.jpg?w=420&h=315

Vote Romney!
Oh, look... she's wearing the same receiver that Bush wore in his debate with Kerry. Same bra, too.

Vis
09-27-2012, 02:58 PM
Romney Ahead in Presidential Race, Say Replacement Refs

ricardisimo
09-27-2012, 07:31 PM
Romney Ahead in Presidential Race, Say Replacement Refs
http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/south-park-replacement-refs.jpg

Vis
09-28-2012, 06:53 AM
Romney lost to McCain in the primaries last time. Before that, McCain lost to GWB in the primaries. Why are republicans surprised that the guy who isn't quite as good as the guy who isn't quite as good as GWB is losing?

Fire Haley
09-28-2012, 07:12 AM
Oh noes! "They stole another one!"

"Likely voters" polls aren't the same as registered voters



Drop in Ohio voter registration, especially in Dem strongholds, mirrors nationwide trend

Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from 4 years ago.

Of that reduction,. 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio.

In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/27/drop-in-ohio-voter-registration-especially-in-dem-strongholds-mirrors/

Vis
09-28-2012, 08:43 AM
Oh noes! "They stole another one!"

"Likely voters" polls aren't the same as registered voters



Drop in Ohio voter registration, especially in Dem strongholds, mirrors nationwide trend

Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from 4 years ago.

Of that reduction,. 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio.

In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/27/drop-in-ohio-voter-registration-especially-in-dem-strongholds-mirrors/

Should say "purged registrations"

Fire Haley
09-28-2012, 09:34 AM
Should say "purged registrations"

The dead losing their voting rights?

shocking to most Dems - I know

Atlanta Dan
09-28-2012, 11:57 AM
In perhaps the cruelest dagger yet, Fox News has joined the left-wing media conspiracy by releasing a poll showing Obama leading Romney by five points among likely voters. The good folks at unskewedpolls.com, who have applied their unique interpretive methodology to public polling to find Romney leading in a rout, work their magic to remove the pro-Obama bias from the Fox News poll and find that as a result … Obama leads by two points. Either Romney is really, truly, behind even in the unskewed polls, or the liberal polling conspiracy has penetrated not only Fox News but unskewedpolls.com itself. It's not clear which explanation is more grim.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/09/whose-idea-was-it-to-nominate-romney-anyway.html

Vis
09-28-2012, 01:18 PM
http://www.thedailydolt.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/9-19-12-22.png

Mitt Romney Has the Lowest Favorability Rating Of Any Presidential Nominee In Modern History — Including All Of the Eventual Losers

Have you ever looked at Mitt Romney on your television screen and thought to yourself, “My God, he looks like an older version of the preppy villain in every 1980′s teen comedy ever produced. Who even likes this guy?”? Well, according to a new paper published by the Pew Research Center, the answer to your question is: virtually no one.

A review of Pew Research Center and Gallup survey data from September finds that Mitt Romney has the lowest favorability rating of any presidential nominee in recent history. In fact, Mitt Romney is the only candidate over the past seven election cycles to be viewed more unfavorably than favorably — and that’s including all of the nominees who went on to lose the election. In fact, while the graph below only goes back to 1988, Andrew Romano over at The Daily Beast/Newsweek sifted through the data going all the way back to 1976 and still couldn’t find any nominee with lower favorability ratings than Romney.

Oh, and this is before the whole “47%” thing went public.

http://www.thedailydolt.com/2012/09/21/people-really-dont-like-mitt-romney/

Vis
09-28-2012, 03:21 PM
The new sites for electoral college projections are: ElectionProjection.com: 347-191, Electoral-vote.com: 332-206, Josh Putnam: 332-206, Princeton Election Consortium: 298-191, 270towin.com: 247-100-191

http://m.static.newsvine.com/servista/imagesizer?file=pwtennyB6EAA598-B010-F74E-702F-09A480817FFD.jpg&width=380

MasterOfPuppets
09-28-2012, 03:50 PM
9_6gz5RnKjw&feature=related

Fire Haley
09-28-2012, 04:03 PM
Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

A look at other media polls' performance in 08

•NBC/WSJ C
•ABC/WaP0 D+
•Gallup D
•CBS/NYT D-
•Reuters F

Rasmussen A-

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/obama_total_approval_graphics/september_2012/obama_total_approval_september_28_2012/825759-1-eng-US/obama_total_approval_september_28_2012.jpg

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/obama_index_graphics/september_2012/obama_approval_index_september_28_2012/825756-1-eng-US/obama_approval_index_september_28_2012.jpg


and who could forget the exit polls that had Kerry winning

Go vote!

Fire Haley
09-28-2012, 04:25 PM
Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew

With no manufactured outrage to hammer Mitt Romney at the moment, liberal journalists are now eagerly touting a series of polls which appear to show President Obama pulling away from the GOP nominee in several key states.

Unfortunately, these polls are relying on sample sizes which are skewed tremendously leftward with far more Democrats than Republicans and as such, they are unlikely to be good predictors of actual Election Day turnout. Do the pollsters themselves actually believe in their own sample sizes though? At least one appears not to

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/matthew-sheffield/2012/09/26/quinnipiac-pollster-admits-probably-unlikely-electorate-will-feat

-----------------------


Quinnipiac “polling equivalent of pornography” - LOL!

tony hipchest
09-28-2012, 05:33 PM
http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q23/shortyshane_2006/billmaher.jpg

Fire Haley
09-28-2012, 10:56 PM
yep - the election is over - the polls are closing, no need for Dems to go vote, Obama will win anyway

stay home

Vis
09-29-2012, 08:01 AM
Fox’s Sunday host Chris Wallace is tired of hearing conservatives criticize recent polls that show Mitt Romney trailing President Obama; and he let radio host Mike Gallagher know that today with a fiery scolding.

Things initially got tense when Gallagher took issue with Wallace characterizing the Romney campaign as “in trouble.”

“Wait a minute,” Gallagher interrupted, “what do you mean ‘Romney’s in trouble’? Where’d you get that from? What, because of the poll manipulation crap?”

That set Wallace off.

“This criticism of the polls is craziness. I actually did some research on this today, which is more than you’ve done,” he snapped at Gallagher.

“No self-respecting pollster,” including Fox, he explained, weighs their polls to even out party identification.

Vis
09-29-2012, 08:15 AM
-IZk7jP0LkM

Fire Haley
09-29-2012, 08:43 AM
While the GOP campaign founders, Gore solidifies his lead

September 16 — Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore leads Republican rival George W. Bush by twelve points, according to a new Newsweek poll conducted Sept. 14 and 15.

tony hipchest
09-29-2012, 10:05 AM
hahaha... "bush"

its cute how GOP still says his name proudly, as if getting him elected was an accomplishment.

Vis
09-29-2012, 10:28 AM
While the GOP campaign founders, Gore solidifies his lead

September 16 — Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore leads Republican rival George W. Bush by twelve points, according to a new Newsweek poll conducted Sept. 14 and 15.

Seems to predict Gore would get more votes. Oh, wait....

Vincent
09-30-2012, 08:09 AM
While the GOP campaign founders, Gore solidifies his lead

September 16 — Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore leads Republican rival George W. Bush by twelve points, according to a new Newsweek poll conducted Sept. 14 and 15.

Polls are the pornography of the left.

Atlanta Dan
09-30-2012, 10:16 AM
The dead losing their voting rights?

shocking to most Dems - I know

Yep - voter registration fraud apparently is a problem .. involving ... wait for it... the Republicans:jawdrop:

The number of Florida counties reporting suspicious voter registration forms connected to Strategic Allied Consulting, the firm hired by the state Republican Party to sign up new voters, has grown to 10, officials said, as local election supervisors continue to search their forms for questionable signatures, addresses or other identifiers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/us/politics/suspicious-voter-forms-found-in-10-florida-counties.html?ref=politics

ricardisimo
09-30-2012, 01:58 PM
Seems to predict Gore would get more votes. Oh, wait....
:toofunny:

Vincent
10-01-2012, 04:35 PM
Anybody noticing in all this discussion of polls that "independents" aren't showing up?

Every time I get polled they begin with "are you a registered D or R?" "Nope." Click. And everybody I know responds the same, and... click.

They're hiding from the middle because they know what awaits them.

Fire Haley
10-02-2012, 05:11 AM
ha ha - votes don't matter?

http://moonbattery.com/Florida-voter-registration.jpg

tony hipchest
10-02-2012, 07:06 PM
so what i gather from this very insightful FLA voter registration graphic is that for the most part democrats are already registered and if the republicans register another 150,000 more by 2016 they may finally catch up?

:thumbsup:

Fire Haley
10-03-2012, 03:35 AM
it means the honeymoon is over for Barry's cult worshipers (except around here, of course)


“Students Against Barack Obama” campaign encourages young people to just say no to B.O.

http://hillbuzz.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Screen-Shot-2012-09-24-at-3.26.29-AM.png?cda6c1

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/483135_361771170577473_103401728_n.png


Blacks are abandoning the Democratic Party

Won’t trade Christian principles for politics

For more than 50 years, the black community has been the wholly owned subsidiary of the Democratic Party. That may be changing. In spite of the overwhelmingly liberal voting patterns of black voters, they are an essentially conservative community. Americans of African descent are more pro-life and pro-family than the average white voter and as conservative on social issues as any white evangelical.

Democrats now have fully embraced an abortion policy that amounts to infanticide. They have also made the lesbian-homosexual-bisexual-transgender agenda their vision for America. How have they managed to hold on to black Christians in spite of an agenda worthy of the Antichrist?

They have shown a ruthless willingness to frighten black voters with outright lies about the plans of conservatives and Republicans. Vice President Joseph R. Biden’s “they gonna put y’all back in chains” was not a gaffe. It is part of the Democrats’ strategy of using fear to keep blacks as a captive audience.

All over the country, black churchgoers are now expressing disenchantment with the Democrats making “same-sex marriage” an official part of their platform. This may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. There are older black Christians who will vote Democratic no matter what, driven by emotional memory rather than spiritual commitment. Younger, committed Christians more readily see the contradiction and the irony.

They are being asked to put aside their biblical and moral vision of the world and submit to the leadership of the Democratic Party because that leadership promises to do something for them. The Democrats’ policies since the 1960s have decimated the black family, perpetuated poverty and created failing schools that operate to benefit unions rather than children. In league with the National Education Association, they oppose every effort to give choice to parents to allow their children to escape failing schools.

Now black churchgoers are being told to suppress Christian conscience and remain beholden to a party that demands their loyalty while insulting their faith and blaspheming their God. For the first time in 50 years, there is a discussion going on in the black community as to whether their loyalty to the Democratic Party is deserved.

Many black pastors are telling their members to stay home, rather than vote for a black president who has done more to advance the cause of homosexuality and abortion than that of black Americans.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/1/blacks-are-abandoning-the-democratic-party/

Vincent
10-03-2012, 07:30 AM
Many black pastors are telling their members to stay home, rather than vote for a black president who has done more to advance the cause of homosexuality and abortion than that of black Americans.

I've long been confounded by why and how any Christian could have anything to do with the party of satan. They're mutually exclusive.

tony hipchest
10-03-2012, 09:16 AM
OH NOEZ! not a students against Obama campaign!!!!!1!!!11!!

:toofunny: :toofunny: :toofunny:

you mean to tell me college tuition has only gone up 25% in the past 4 years?

hell, it was going up 10-15% EVERY YEAR for atleast 20 years prior to that.

you mean to tell me insurance prices have gone up too!?!?!?!?!?! :jawdrop:

lmao... you guys are funny.

do you have stats on how many of the 3.8% increase in unemployement rate are limbless GI's returning from bush's war?

:popcorn:

ricardisimo
10-03-2012, 03:51 PM
I've long been confounded by why and how any Christian could have anything to do with the party of satan. They're mutually exclusive.
I thought the Tea Party was the Party of Satan (http://www.theprovocation.net/2011/09/tea-party-owes-more-to-church-of-satan.html).

Fire Haley
10-05-2012, 02:51 PM
I can hear it now - - "THEY STOLE ANOTHER ELECTION!!!!!"


Speaking of Ohio......

oh-oh


Ohio’s early absentee ballot requests and cleaned-up voter rolls point to Romney blowout

With a month to go in this election, the one real performance indicator we have for Ohio — early absentee ballot requests — shows Republicans have narrowed the gap since 2008 in every county on record in the state

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested: 33 percent were requested by registered Democrats and 19 percent were requested by registered Republicans — a 14-point gap.

So far in 2012, only 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans — only a five-point gap.


Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – 20-point shift
Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – 18-point shift
Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – 15-point shift
Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM – 6-point shift
Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM – 17-point shift
Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – 10-point shift
Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – 23-point shift
Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – 17-point shift
Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – 6-point shift
Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP – 16-point shift
Montgomery County: Was+29%DEM, now +5% DEM – 24-point shift
Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – 17-point shift
Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – 27-point shift
Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – 14-point shift
Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – 27-point shift
Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – 11-point shift

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/05/ohios-early-absentee-ballot-requests-and-cleaned-up-voter-rolls-point-to-romney-blowout/