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View Full Version : BYRON: Let's Talk Negative Plays by the Numbers


desertsteel
11-13-2012, 05:04 PM
OK...so I have read all of the football experts on here talk about Byron's long delivery and how it is conducive to turnovers and fumbles. How many fumbles did he have last night in the rain with no reps? How many interceptions? How many sacks? What was that number again? ZERO, ZERO, ZERO.

OK... moving on...

You say that was just one half of football. Well Byron was a starter for several years and his throwing motion and mobility has been the same since college when he was drafted #7 overall. Let's look at his career stats for negative plays. And to make it more applicable, let's compare them to Ben's (No, I'm not saying that Byron's overall play should be compared with Ben's, but let's compare negative plays).

http://i.minus.com/jigVHvMXQBoOn.jpg (http://minus.com/ligVHvMXQBoOn)

OK... So Byron has fewer Int's, Fumbles for Loss and Sacks than Ben does. Overall, almost 13% of Ben's attempts end up in a negative play and only 9% for Byron. So, instead of everybody parroting the TV analyst about his throwing motion, look instead to the FACTS. Overall, he takes care of the ball much better than Ben does, statistically speaking.

What we will miss is the playmaking ability of Ben, but don't expect Leftwich to go out and lose the game and have a bunch of sack-strips, because the numbers aren't there to back it up. With ball control and Byron getting a full week of reps, I expect us to rise to the occasion and get the job done against the Ratbirds.

Next man up! Whoever wants to jump ship is not on my ship to begin with.

Bayz101
11-13-2012, 05:07 PM
This is the last Leftwich thread i'm going to allow, simply because it's rational and informative. Lefty is a good quarterback, and if he's given time to prepare, he'll do his job nicely. Please keep in mind that BOTH Ben AND Byron only completed 50% of their passes. If you're going to bash Byron for his poor play with absolutely NO preparation, you damn well better look at Ben too. Not saying that should be the case, just giving Lefty credit where it's due.

desertsteel
11-13-2012, 05:09 PM
This is the last Leftwich thread i'm going to allow, simply because it's rational and informative. Lefty is a good quarterback, and if he's given time to prepare, he'll do his job nicely. Please keep in mind that BOTH Ben AND Byron only completed 50% of their passes. If you're going to bash Byron for his poor play with absolutely NO preparation, you damn well better look at Ben too. Not saying that should be the case, just giving Lefty credit where it's due.

Thanks. I was going to post it in one of the existing threads but I didn't want the numbers to get lost among the minutia.

Darkstorm05
11-13-2012, 05:12 PM
Thanks. I was going to post it in one of the existing threads but I didn't want the numbers to get lost among the minutia.

This will also keep the inevitable "YOU QUOTED STATS???" war in it's own thread.

desertsteel
11-13-2012, 05:22 PM
Plus those were pretty bad conditions to come into last night even for someone prepared (see Ben's stats), much less someone who hasn't played in 2 years. BL is a MUCH better QB than Dennis Dixon. He was also better than Cassel last night.

FanSince72
11-13-2012, 06:06 PM
http://blogs.sfu.ca/departments/cstudies/pr/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/how-to-lie-with-statistics.png

desertsteel
11-13-2012, 06:14 PM
http://blogs.sfu.ca/departments/cstudies/pr/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/how-to-lie-with-statistics.png
Yes... let's base everything off of a John Gruden or Chris Collinsworth one-liner. Sacks, Fumbles and INT's are stats that matter. They translate into losses. Especially for someone who is being asked to game-manage like Byron will.

FanSince72
11-13-2012, 06:32 PM
Yes... let's base everything off of a John Gruden or Chris Collinsworth one-liner. Sacks, Fumbles and INT's are stats that matter. They translate into losses. Especially for someone who is being asked to game-manage like Byron will.

Stats only tell you what happened in the past -- they don't predict the future.

Here's a stat for everyone: Leftwich completed 7 passes last night, WHICH EQUALS THE AMOUNT OF PASS ATTEMPTS HE'S HAD IN THE TWO YEARS PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT'S GAME!

So how in God's name can anyone apply statistics to a guy who has thrown all of seven passes in two years and has thrown a grand total of fifty passes in a Steeler uniform (including last night's game) since 2008? The only consistent set of numbers that could possibly apply to Leftwich are at least five years old and those numbers are supposed to mean something?

Bayz101
11-13-2012, 06:41 PM
Stats only tell you what happened in the past -- they don't predict the future.

Here's a stat for everyone: Leftwich completed 7 passes last night, WHICH EQUALS THE AMOUNT OF PASS ATTEMPTS HE'S HAD IN THE TWO YEARS PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT'S GAME!

So how in God's name can anyone apply statistics to a guy who has thrown all of seven passes in two years and has thrown a grand total of fifty passes in a Steeler uniform (including last night's game) since 2008? The only consistent set of numbers that could possibly apply to Leftwich are at least five years old and those numbers are supposed to mean something?

Preseason week one: 3/5 for 14 yards and a touchdown.
Preseason week three: 5/8 for 105 yards and two touchdowns.

8/13 for 119 yards and three touchdowns in limited play this preseason. He came in last night and finished the game with the EXACT SAME completion percentage as Ben with NO warm up and preparation. Give credit where it's due. He's had some unlucky injuries in recent years, but he's a great QB. Two years with "seven" passes and he STILL did almost equally as good as Ben did with NO preparation in AWFUL weather.

jiminpa
11-13-2012, 07:57 PM
I'm more concerned with his fragility than his delivery. His delivery makes his passes predictable. It also gives him a longer range than Ben, whose range is great. We have the best receiving corps in the NFL, and a significant running game. I'm betting that Haley can build a game plan for Byron. I do think the FO should consider finding a better backup for Ben next year though. They probably won't, and that's okay too.

desertsteel
11-13-2012, 08:27 PM
Stats only tell you what happened in the past -- they don't predict the future.

Here's a stat for everyone: Leftwich completed 7 passes last night, WHICH EQUALS THE AMOUNT OF PASS ATTEMPTS HE'S HAD IN THE TWO YEARS PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT'S GAME!

So how in God's name can anyone apply statistics to a guy who has thrown all of seven passes in two years and has thrown a grand total of fifty passes in a Steeler uniform (including last night's game) since 2008? The only consistent set of numbers that could possibly apply to Leftwich are at least five years old and those numbers are supposed to mean something?
Well, let me clue you in: the concerns with negative plays center around his long windup and slow delivery. People say it makes him prone for turnovers just based on how it looks. The reason past stats are important are because his throwing motion has NOT CHANGED. And he was NEVER more mobile than he is now. So for that reason the past is a good predictor of the future.

desertsteel
11-13-2012, 08:31 PM
I'm more concerned with his fragility than his delivery.

And to this I wholeheartedly agree. If it weren't for proneness to injury he may still be a starter somewhere today. And no one should question his leadership or toughness. He's got a stellar resume' in those departments. He played college ball in my hometown and his leadership and toughness were very evident even then.

FanSince72
11-13-2012, 09:03 PM
Well, let me clue you in: the concerns with negative plays center around his long windup and slow delivery. People say it makes him prone for turnovers just based on how it looks. The reason past stats are important are because his throwing motion has NOT CHANGED. And he was NEVER more mobile than he is now. So for that reason the past is a good predictor of the future.

Want to know what I see?

I see a guy who has had a mediocre career and has spent much of that career riding the pine for one team or another who now has an opportunity to validate his existence. He's not being asked to step in for a starter who has a sore finger and will be back, good as new next week. Instead he's stepping into a situation where two of the next three games we play will likely play a major role if not outright decide our playoff future and it's a pretty good bet that he'll likely play in all of them.

For a person who has spent the last few years watching other people be successful, he probably can't wait to seize this opportunity to have his career actually mean something. When he was interviewed after the Cheif's game, he said all of the usual "rah-rah" stuff about being ready and being the "next man up". But at the very end of that interview he was asked if he'll be ready and he answered like a kid who was getting his first big shot at something and he promised that he would be ready and that he won't be rusty.

This guy is pumped and he's ready to redeem himself and his career and to take advantage of an opportunity to make all of the disappointing years of waiting seem worth it and I hope he gets the chance because I think he'll make the most of it.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can measure that sort of thing.

That's what I see.

steelfury02
11-13-2012, 09:10 PM
Want to know what I see?

I see a guy who has had a mediocre career and has spent much of that career riding the pine for one team or another who now has an opportunity to validate his existence. He's not being asked to step in for a starter who has a sore finger and will be back, good as new next week. Instead he's stepping into a situation where two of the next three games we play will likely play a major role if not outright decide our playoff future and it's a pretty good bet that he'll likely play in all of them.

For a person who has spent the last few years watching other people be successful, he probably can't wait to seize this opportunity to have his career actually mean something. When he was interviewed after the Cheif's game, he said all of the usual "rah-rah" stuff about being ready and being the "next man up". But at the very end of that interview he was asked if he'll be ready and he answered like a kid who was getting his first big shot at something and he promised that he would be ready and that he won't be rusty.

This guy is pumped and he's ready to redeem himself and his career and to take advantage of an opportunity to make all of the disappointing years of waiting seem worth it and I hope he gets the chance because I think he'll make the most of it.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can measure that sort of thing.

That's what I see.

Fan, I hope this turns out the way we all want it to turn out - Lefty taking the car for a spin while Ben is out, getting at least 2 out of the next 3. I have faith that there is no possible way we lose to Baltimore both times, 2 seasons in a row.

Atlanta Dan
11-13-2012, 09:14 PM
Opening line before the Monday night game and Ben getting hurt was Steelers giving 4 & 1/2 to Ravens - consensus line currently is Baltimore -2 & 1/2 - a touchdown swing - I guess that is a negative number

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

FanSince72
11-13-2012, 09:19 PM
Opening line before the Monday night game and Ben getting hurt was Steelers giving 4 & 1/2 to Ravens - consensus line currently is Baltimore -2 & 1/2 - a touchdown swing - I guess that is a negative

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/


Or you could look at it as "Motivation".

Like I've said before, you can be positive or negative and since neither one costs anything you're free to choose either one.

I'll go with positive. :hatsoff:

Atlanta Dan
11-13-2012, 09:25 PM
Or you could look at it as "Motivation".

Like I've said before, you can be positive or negative and since neither one costs anything you're free to choose either one.

I'll go with positive. :hatsoff:

Positive is a better attitude than negative but would you take the Steelers getting 2&1/2 for serious $$$$?

:drink:

FanSince72
11-13-2012, 09:28 PM
Positive is a better attitude than negative but would you take the Steelers getting 2&1/2 for serious $$$$?

:drink:

I never bet for or against my Steelers.

And I'm not generally a superstitious person...


...but still... :noidea:

Atlanta Dan
11-13-2012, 09:34 PM
I never bet for or against my Steelers.

And I'm not generally a superstitious person...


...but still... :noidea:

:thumbsup:

During my gambling days I would never bet against the Steelers even when I had a high degree of confidence there was money to be made betting against them

desertsteel
11-13-2012, 10:29 PM
Want to know what I see?

I see a guy who has had a mediocre career and has spent much of that career riding the pine for one team or another who now has an opportunity to validate his existence. He's not being asked to step in for a starter who has a sore finger and will be back, good as new next week. Instead he's stepping into a situation where two of the next three games we play will likely play a major role if not outright decide our playoff future and it's a pretty good bet that he'll likely play in all of them.

For a person who has spent the last few years watching other people be successful, he probably can't wait to seize this opportunity to have his career actually mean something. When he was interviewed after the Cheif's game, he said all of the usual "rah-rah" stuff about being ready and being the "next man up". But at the very end of that interview he was asked if he'll be ready and he answered like a kid who was getting his first big shot at something and he promised that he would be ready and that he won't be rusty.

This guy is pumped and he's ready to redeem himself and his career and to take advantage of an opportunity to make all of the disappointing years of waiting seem worth it and I hope he gets the chance because I think he'll make the most of it.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can measure that sort of thing.

That's what I see.

To all of that I agree. I've followed Byron since he was a freshman in college and he is everything you just described to the core.

Hawaii 5-0
11-13-2012, 10:40 PM
Positive is a better attitude than negative but would you take the Steelers getting 2&1/2 for serious $$$$?

:drink:

no, I wouldn't. I would want at least 3 points...:tt02:

BlaZeQuietly
11-14-2012, 01:09 AM
well byron used to start for tampa and he wasnt that bad

bornaSteelersfan
11-14-2012, 01:57 AM
If Leftwich is going to play (He would either way if little Ben is born), then I am truly grateful that he had a chance to shake off some rust in last night's game. He will get the majority of reps in practice this week to prepare for the game. Keep in mind that no matter what the analysts say about Flacco and Co., they have been pretty inconsistant all season. If the Browns had a coach who was truly playing to win and had the slightest incling of "clock management", they would have beat those "mighty" Ravens. The Steelers have something to prove this week. I'm excited about this game and have confidence in The Steelers!

:tt04::sign02:

Rick5895
11-14-2012, 04:51 AM
I , for one, am glad we have Lefty backing up Ben. I believe he will be able to take us to wins in the next 3 games. Remember, it's not just about Lefty. The entire team has to come to play. The D really has to step up and we have to be able to run the ball. The 2008 team focused on the phrase, "band of brothers" and played hard one one another. They need the same "motivation" now. Play hard and keep winning , so when we get Ben back we will be better and the super bowl talk won't be just talk

maddog78
11-14-2012, 07:18 AM
The "Leftwich slow release" is unfortunately the narrative, so your numbers will fall on deaf ears. First, decision making and ball speed are two other factors involved in whether or not a pass gets where it's supposed to go on time.

Second, his release is greatly exaggerated. Doesn't look all that abnormal to me. Flacco's is similar.

desertsteel
11-14-2012, 08:52 AM
The "Leftwich slow release" is unfortunately the narrative, so your numbers will fall on deaf ears. First, decision making and ball speed are two other factors involved in whether or not a pass gets where it's supposed to go on time.

Second, his release is greatly exaggerated. Doesn't look all that abnormal to me. Flacco's is similar.

QB's with unconventional throwing motions who make it to this level and play 10 years usually compensate in other areas. I'd love to see a Sports Science on him.

desertsteel
11-15-2012, 01:54 PM
Some moar STATZ:

Lefty career in night games:

TD = 6
INT - 1
QBR = 93

I'm liking the looks of that for Sunday night :D

Fire Arians
11-15-2012, 02:01 PM
Some moar STATZ:

Lefty career in night games:

TD = 6
INT - 1
QBR = 93

I'm liking the looks of that for Sunday night :D

i can dig that

Fire Haley
11-15-2012, 02:08 PM
“Probably about 20-25 miles per hour,” wide receiver Mike Wallace said of the difference between Roethlisberger and Leftwich. “Byron’s ball comes out a lot faster. I like Byron’s ball. Ben has a nice soft touch on it, you just pluck out of the air and keep rolling. Byron, you definitely got to brace yourself because it’s coming.”

http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/2958143-85/leftwich-steelers-byron-roethlisberger-ben-sunday-quarterback-ward-ravens-ball#axzz2C699QEQ7