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View Full Version : It is a simple arithmetic…stupid.


VA_steeelrs
11-20-2012, 09:12 AM
I waited a couple of days to post the message just to make sure it is not out of my madness.

It is obvious that Tomlin is an incompetent in managing game clocks. It is a simple arithmetic…stupid.
Calling a timeout with 2 minutes and 4 seconds left, is flat out retarded act. If this call was made in the previous play or within the 2 minutes, he could have saved 40 seconds. This guys is paid millions of $$$ and yet proved that he does not even understand simple math like this. he needs to go back to college, I mean grade school

Darkstorm05
11-20-2012, 09:23 AM
Uhhhh.....what? The intention was for us to take the TO, then play 3rd down, then go to the 2 minute warning, then take the punt with no time run off. This plan went to hell because we took an offsides, instead. In what way does this reflect on Tomlin? Because he counted on his veteran players to not make a total dumbass move and waste 35 seconds?

Bayz101
11-20-2012, 09:43 AM
And in the couple of days you waited to post this it didn't occur to you that it wasn't Tomlin's fault at ALL? An off-sides penalty negated his effort, which was, in fact, smart coaching. If our veteran players refrain from going off-sides, this topic never gets created, and this discussion never happens.

tony hipchest
11-20-2012, 10:49 AM
its a standard, widely practiced tactic.

some fans just souldnt try to monday morning qb, let alone armchair coach.

SteelersCanada
11-20-2012, 11:05 AM
Posts like this make me more upset than losing to the Ravens.

desertsteel
11-20-2012, 11:21 AM
It took you 2 days to come up with this retarded post??? Wow! Your game day analysis must be incredible. :banging:

teegre
11-20-2012, 12:19 PM
Pot... calling Mr. Pot.
Sincerely,
Mr. Kettle

Bayz101
11-20-2012, 12:25 PM
I've read this over three times now, and i'm still coming to the same conclusion: It isn't Mike's math that's at fault here, and I mean that in the most respectful way possible.

fdp
11-20-2012, 12:31 PM
From grantland.com 's Bill Barnwell:
"with the game winding down and his Steelers trailing by three points, Mike Tomlin faced what appeared to be a difficult clock-management decision during the fourth quarter on Sunday night. With one timeout left in the bag,1 Tomlin's team faced a new set of downs from the Ravens with just 2:51 left in the game.

In making his decision, Tomlin needs to assume that he's going to get a pair of stops and try to leave as much time on the clock as possible. While the Steelers ended up committing an offsides penalty that cost them 40 key seconds, you can't assume that your veteran defense is going to take an incredibly ill-timed penalty. You have to plan for the best-case scenario, because there's virtually no way you can win with anything worse.

On first down, the Ravens ran the ball with Ray Rice and gained three yards, taking about two seconds in the process. With 2:49 left, the Steelers had about a two-second window during which they could have called timeout and forced the Ravens to run two plays before the two-minute warning. A timeout at exactly 2:49 forces the Ravens to run the ball on second down, taking about four seconds off the clock, which would then wind the clock down to 2:05 before the Ravens had to act on third down. There, the Ravens would have likely called timeout just before the play clock hit zero and then run a play to try for the first down; with no need to burn clock (since a punt would come across the two-minute warning anyway), the Ravens could choose to throw on third down as opposed to relying upon their moribund running game. If the Steelers came up with a stop, the punt would come right at 2:00 and they'd take over with about 1:56 or so left to go.

What the Steelers chose to do instead wasn't all that much different. They let the clock run after the first-down handoff, let the Ravens run for no gain and take five seconds off the clock, and then called a timeout at 2:04. The Ravens then would have had the opportunity to throw (or run) the ball with 2:04 left before a stop would have forced them to punt at or just after the two-minute warning. The Steelers ended up taking that unfortunate offsides penalty and then forced a sack of Joe Flacco (likely by design, with coach John Harbaugh insisting that Flacco take an easy completion or be sacked to run clock) on the other side of the two-minute warning, costing Pittsburgh 40 seconds in the process. Without the offsides, though, the timeout usage at either 2:49 and 2:04 wouldn't have resulted in a significantly different process. In both cases, Pittsburgh's getting the ball right around 1:55.

What if the Steelers had chosen to use their timeout after the two-minute warning? Well, let's see. The Ravens would have run the ball at 2:09, just as they did in the real game, pushing the clock to the two-minute warning. When they came back to third down, they would have needed to run the ball to ensure that the clock kept moving while forcing the Steelers to take their final timeout with about 1:56 to go. A punt would then give the Steelers the ball with about 1:51 or so left.

Tomlin's timeout situation, then, left him with a tradeoff. By taking the timeout before the two-minute warning, Tomlin traded an extra four to five seconds of game time for the ability to induce a run from the Ravens on third down. Had he taken the timeout after the two-minute warning, he would have done the opposite, forcing a third down run while costing his team five seconds or so. I don't think it's clear that one option is better than the other, and in the long run, Pittsburgh's offsides penalty ended up making the whole thing irrelevant."

SteelerForever
11-20-2012, 02:10 PM
I've read this over three times now, and i'm still coming to the same conclusion: It isn't Mike's math that's at fault here, and I mean that in the most respectful way possible.

I have been a reader of this forum for some time. This topic has me pissed so I thought I would share some additional thought.

The OP of this thread is correct that Tomlin should not have called a time-out at 2:04 and here is why and it is not because of simple math.

With the ravens facing a 3rd and 6 (obvious passing down) letting the clock run to 2:00 is the correct play. Now the Ravens are faced with a tough decision. Whether to run and conceded getting a first down or pass and risk an incompletion which leaves an extra 40 seconds on the clock. The saving of the 4 seconds is not worth it for the Steelers.

What actually happened in the game was the worse possible situation because of the offsides. It cost the Steelers about 40 seconds and it could have been the difference in the game. Personally, I think allowing the ravens to pass for the first down with no penalty of an incomplete pass (stopping the clock) is not worth the 4 seconds saved.

Darkstorm05
11-20-2012, 02:44 PM
I have been a reader of this forum for some time. This topic has me pissed so I thought I would share some additional thought.

The OP of this thread is correct that Tomlin should not have called a time-out at 2:04 and here is why and it is not because of simple math.

With the ravens facing a 3rd and 6 (obvious passing down) letting the clock run to 2:00 is the correct play. Now the Ravens are faced with a tough decision. Whether to run and conceded getting a first down or pass and risk an incompletion which leaves an extra 40 seconds on the clock. The saving of the 4 seconds is not worth it for the Steelers.

What actually happened in the game was the worse possible situation because of the offsides. It cost the Steelers about 40 seconds and it could have been the difference in the game. Personally, I think allowing the ravens to pass for the first down with no penalty of an incomplete pass (stopping the clock) is not worth the 4 seconds saved.

I don't really think that would work. If we hadn't jumped the offsides, we'd have had the ball back at around 1:57 on the clock. If we did it your way, and everything plays out the same, that 3rd down play with the offsides jump alone takes us down to maybe 1:50 or 1:45. Now we run 3rd down again, and here we are at what, 1:30? Now we take the TO. Now they punt, and we get, what. 1:25?

We were playing to the chance that we come out of that with as much time as possible. it was our only choice, because any less time and we see what happens. Tomlin can't be making his choices based on fear that a veteran player will shit his brain into his pants on a crucial play.

kent
11-20-2012, 03:55 PM
I feel bad for the the abuse youre getting haha but yeah youre logic is way off. Be mad at the two previous timeouts that were wasted.

teegre
11-20-2012, 06:20 PM
Why is anyone even still discussing this!?!

At 2:04, Tomlin takes his last time out. The Ravens run a play, and the two-minute warning stops the clock.
Steelers get the ball, after the punt, at 1:55.

VERSUS

The two-minute warning stops the clock. The Ravens run a play. Tomlin uses his last time out, at 1:52 (that was the actual end of the play).
Steelers get the ball, after the punt, at 1:47.

Option B is always the wrong choice... unless... uh... well... two defensive players jump off-sides.

And, if you KNEW that Woodley and Keisel were going to jump, well, you should go to Las Vegas and bet your mortgage. The rest of us will choose option A every single time.

steelerchad
11-21-2012, 08:27 AM
I have been a reader of this forum for some time. This topic has me pissed so I thought I would share some additional thought.

The OP of this thread is correct that Tomlin should not have called a time-out at 2:04 and here is why and it is not because of simple math.

With the ravens facing a 3rd and 6 (obvious passing down) letting the clock run to 2:00 is the correct play. Now the Ravens are faced with a tough decision. Whether to run and conceded getting a first down or pass and risk an incompletion which leaves an extra 40 seconds on the clock. The saving of the 4 seconds is not worth it for the Steelers.

What actually happened in the game was the worse possible situation because of the offsides. It cost the Steelers about 40 seconds and it could have been the difference in the game. Personally, I think allowing the ravens to pass for the first down with no penalty of an incomplete pass (stopping the clock) is not worth the 4 seconds saved.

I actually agree with this and not the OP. I thought this same thing right after we called the timeout. With 2:04, we gave them a free chance to throw for the 1st down with no clock concerns as it would be stopping after the play anyway. If you let it run to the 2:00 warning, the Ravens would have likely played it safe and run forcing us to burn our last timeout. We get the ball back with 1:45 or so. The timeout would have been a good one with 2:15 left as an incompletion may have give the ball back to us before the 2 minute warning, but at 2:04 it's not a good call in that situation.

steelerchad
11-21-2012, 08:30 AM
I don't really think that would work. If we hadn't jumped the offsides, we'd have had the ball back at around 1:57 on the clock. If we did it your way, and everything plays out the same, that 3rd down play with the offsides jump alone takes us down to maybe 1:50 or 1:45. Now we run 3rd down again, and here we are at what, 1:30? Now we take the TO. Now they punt, and we get, what. 1:25?

We were playing to the chance that we come out of that with as much time as possible. it was our only choice, because any less time and we see what happens. Tomlin can't be making his choices based on fear that a veteran player will shit his brain into his pants on a crucial play.

What he's saying is the chances of the Ravens playing it safe and just running would have gone up after the 2 minute warning. Calling it before gave them a free shot to throw for the first and end the game right there with no time penalty as the clock was stopping either way.
On 3rd and 7 I would have hated seeing the Ravens pick up a 1st with a short pass, which they wouldn't have risked if it meant running another 40 seconds off the clock.

Darkstorm05
11-21-2012, 01:03 PM
What he's saying is the chances of the Ravens playing it safe and just running would have gone up after the 2 minute warning. Calling it before gave them a free shot to throw for the first and end the game right there with no time penalty as the clock was stopping either way.
On 3rd and 7 I would have hated seeing the Ravens pick up a 1st with a short pass, which they wouldn't have risked if it meant running another 40 seconds off the clock.

I'm aware of that but it isn't necessarily correct to assume that would change anything. The Ravens wouldn't have gone in for an incomplete pass. Flacco would have likely been under orders not to throw unless it was a 99% sure deal. otherwise, he takes the sack, and the clock still runs. Mission accomplished either way. If you read the posted article, it even states that the sack Flacco took was likely deliberate for this very reason.

defence
11-21-2012, 01:30 PM
To tell you the truth; I don't know how anyone could be angry at Tomlin. be angry at the special teams. The guy has a sieve at qb; obviously he regards higher than batch; what else can you do but play the cards on the table. Even if you guys mathematically get the ball back with more time. Do you really believe leftwich could do anything with that extra time. This guy sucks!! Period!! I don't know why he's on the team. so if you want to be angry at tomlin; be angry at him for keeping leftwich on the roster.:noidea:

Darkstorm05
11-21-2012, 01:32 PM
To tell you the truth; I don't know how anyone could be angry at Tomlin. be angry at the special teams. The guy has a sieve at qb; obviously he regards higher than batch; what else can you do but play the cards on the table. Even if you guys mathematically get the ball back with more time. Do you really believe leftwich could do anything with that extra time. This guy sucks!! Period!! I don't know why he's on the team. so if you want to be angry at tomlin; be angry at him for keeping leftwich on the roster.:noidea:

That's an A+ opinion. Not like Leftwich was going to tack on another 75 yards through the air with an extra 35 seconds. More likely he'd have used them up rolling around on the ground trying to survive his collapsed lung.

Hawaii 5-0
11-21-2012, 04:54 PM
To tell you the truth; I don't know how anyone could be angry at Tomlin. be angry at the special teams.

wasn't it Tomlin who fired our ST coach earlier this season and promoted our current one?

Bayz101
11-21-2012, 05:01 PM
wasn't it Tomlin who fired our ST coach earlier this season and promoted our current one?

I doubt very seriously that decision was made from a special teams production standpoint. Something else entirely went down behind the scenes, and Tomlin sent him on his way rather quickly and without warning. I'd actually like to learn more about it, but obviously, if it wasn't a good thing he was fired for, Tomlin made the right decision.

FrancoLambert
11-21-2012, 05:29 PM
wasn't it Tomlin who fired our ST coach earlier this season and promoted our current one?

And he needs to keep looking for an upgrade this coming offseason.
We've been hurt badly at special teams for many years....most of us agree on that.
As for his game and clock management......he could improve on that......hopefully his film breakdown includes a look at coaching decisions.

bornaSteelersfan
11-22-2012, 03:45 AM
The time out was the right call for a reason no one has even considered. Our secondary had been playing extremely well all night and nearly had more than one interception. The idea was to lure Flacco into throwing the ball on that 3rd down and having a very good chance of an interception. Either way, we have the most possible time left if not for a stupid penalty. We had a better chance of a turnover or stop on 3rd down that way than letting them run it and possibly getting a 1st down.

steelerchad
11-22-2012, 09:31 AM
The time out was the right call for a reason no one has even considered. Our secondary had been playing extremely well all night and nearly had more than one interception. The idea was to lure Flacco into throwing the ball on that 3rd down and having a very good chance of an interception. Either way, we have the most possible time left if not for a stupid penalty. We had a better chance of a turnover or stop on 3rd down that way than letting them run it and possibly getting a 1st down.


Very good chance of an interception?
We have a very good defense, but interceptors they are not.
We are next to last in INT's this year with 5. To think we were luring Flacco into an INT is ludicrous in that situation. The odds are 10-1 or better that a completion for a 1st down was more likely than an INT.
If that was Tomlin's grand plan (which I doubt it was), I'd be worried about our coach.
On 3rd and 7, I'd have loved to have seen them try to run for the 1st when Rice had 40 yards on 20 carries.

steelerchad
11-22-2012, 09:35 AM
I'm aware of that but it isn't necessarily correct to assume that would change anything. The Ravens wouldn't have gone in for an incomplete pass. Flacco would have likely been under orders not to throw unless it was a 99% sure deal. otherwise, he takes the sack, and the clock still runs. Mission accomplished either way. If you read the posted article, it even states that the sack Flacco took was likely deliberate for this very reason.

You're not understanding here. With 2:04 we gave them the chance to throw or run on either play instead of knowing what was likely coming. No way Flacco takes a sack like he did if the play started at 2:04. He either takes a shot or throws it away. A sack wouldn't have been in the gameplan.

vasteeler
11-22-2012, 10:24 AM
I waited a couple of days to post the message just to make sure it is not out of my madness.

It is obvious that Tomlin is an incompetent in managing game clocks. It is a simple arithmetic…stupid.
Calling a timeout with 2 minutes and 4 seconds left, is flat out retarded act. If this call was made in the previous play or within the 2 minutes, he could have saved 40 seconds. This guys is paid millions of $$$ and yet proved that he does not even understand simple math like this. he needs to go back to college, I mean grade school

please dont confuse me with this guy

steelerchad
11-22-2012, 11:18 AM
please dont confuse me with this guy

Too late, I already did. Your screen name catches my eye since I live in Richmond.

Darkstorm05
11-22-2012, 11:32 AM
You're not understanding here. With 2:04 we gave them the chance to throw or run on either play instead of knowing what was likely coming. No way Flacco takes a sack like he did if the play started at 2:04. He either takes a shot or throws it away. A sack wouldn't have been in the gameplan.

No, I get it, but it doesn't matter anyway. Flacco was going to pass no matter what because it didn't matter. That's why when we ran that 3rd down two different times, on both sides of the 2 minute warning, he went for the pass both times. They had a 3rd and 2 and still went for the pass. It barely mattered at that point.