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View Full Version : Both Scenarios - Making and Missing the Playoffs


SteelersCanada
12-18-2012, 05:18 PM
Let me preface this by saying I don't think our season is over and I do think we're going to win out and make the playoffs. Unfortunately this isn't the popular opinion on this site which I think is a pessimistic view on things. If we win out and go to the playoffs, this season will almost have a 2005 feel to it. But, say that doesn't happen ..

We Make the Playoffs

Let's go with the obvious one here - we're in 'the tournament'. If we're in, we always have a chance to win and I don't care who we're playing. If we sneak in at 6, we'd be the underdog against teams that have a positive record. Whenever that happens, it's almost a certain win for this team. There would be no playing-down-to-the-competition, it would be bringing the best out of this team. I honestly think that if we squeak in at 6, the only team that would even slow us down would be the Patriots. I sincerely hope we go into Houston and show them what a real defense looks like, but maybe that's just me dreaming.

If we're in the playoffs, we are going to be in the conversation for the AFC crown. Here's the thing, though. We'd either have to go into Denver and beat the Broncos or head into Foxboro and beat the Patriots. Pick your poison but personally, I'd rather head into Denver. Knowshon Moreno doesn't strike fear into my heart, and I'm sure Ike wants to make up for his mistakes against Thomas.

Putting it simply, if we get in the playoffs and our defense decides to show up and play football, we can win this thing. We just need to settle down and get in first, though.

We Lose and Miss the Playoffs

So this is the shittier of the two versions of what could happen, but it needs to be addressed none-the-less. So, say we lose and miss the playoffs - what happens? Well, we'd be in a great position to draft for this team and I'm not just talking about the first round. Assuming we go 8-8 or 7-9, we're picking anywhere between 15 - 19. In this range, we're in the Dion Jordan sweepstakes. This kid combined with Woodley would instantaneously improve our pass rush significantly. On top of that, we're in good shape to draft in the later rounds and find talent midway through the second round. I can't stress that point enough, picking midway through the second round and having someone like TJ McDonald still on the board would be huge for this team. We could, essentially, reload this defense in one draft with the amount of defensive talent it holds. However, this can only happen if we miss the playoffs and have picks in the middle of rounds - missing doesn't sound so bad now, does it?

The other scenario is we go 8-8 or 7-9 and that brings change. With all the talk of Haley going to Arizona and coaches being fired, it would give Pittsburgh a very, very good crop of coaches to pick from in terms of coordinators. Say Haley does go off to Arizona, guys like Norv Turner would be there and interested in coaching for a perennial playoff and title contending team with a franchise quarterback.

If LeBeau goes, there would be talk of bringing in a new defensive coordinator as well which could bring this team the changes and facelift it so desperately needs. Physical, attacking corners and using Timmons effectively comes to mind immediately - we need to find someone that uses that scheme. Raheem Morris, anyone? He's a genius with corners and understands talent and recognizes weaknesses. He can't be a head coach to save his life, but by god can he coach defenses.

Finishing in third place would also guarantee a third place schedule. I want you to go and look at who the Bengals played this year and compare that to us - I'd love to have that kind of schedule for next year when we have our reloaded defense and (possibly) a new coordinator that will recognize the talent we have at WR and uses it. If the Steelers reload and refocus for next year playing a third place schedule, you're looking at another 12 - 4, 13 -3 team again. I won't complain about that.

The_Joker
12-18-2012, 05:25 PM
If we make it this year- WIN THE DAMN THING IN 2013!!!
If we don't make it this year- YA GOT AN EASY SCHEDULE, WIN THE DAMN THING IN 2014!!!

steelfury02
12-18-2012, 05:54 PM
Woodley needs to stay on the field for any pairing to be effective. Also - Harrison on last leg. Drafting a mid rounder or two isn't going to fix the lack of edge rush next season. We need RB, Safety in either order IMO. We absolutely must get back to at least 2005 type of running game where teams respect it. We need a top 10 running game again and especially for the playoffs. We need that in our set of cards to take the pressure off Ben. Wallace, Brown, Sanders have not proven to be up to the level of Cruz, Hicks, Manningham or Jennings, Nelson or Jones

SteelersCanada
12-18-2012, 06:12 PM
Woodley needs to stay on the field for any pairing to be effective. Also - Harrison on last leg. Drafting a mid rounder or two isn't going to fix the lack of edge rush next season. We need RB, Safety in either order IMO. We absolutely must get back to at least 2005 type of running game where teams respect it. We need a top 10 running game again and especially for the playoffs. We need that in our set of cards to take the pressure off Ben. Wallace, Brown, Sanders have not proven to be up to the level of Cruz, Hicks, Manningham or Jennings, Nelson or Jones

You're right, we can't draft a mid round guy and fix our pass rush but getting Jordan out of Oregon fixes it.

They haven't been given the same opportunity. The Giants and Packers don't play their WRs on underneath routes - they both run vertical offenses and play to the skill of their WRs, not make their receivers adjust to a given gameplan. I think that's where Haley's offense falls apart - adjust to talent, not the other way around.

steelfury02
12-18-2012, 07:17 PM
You're right, we can't draft a mid round guy and fix our pass rush but getting Jordan out of Oregon fixes it.

They haven't been given the same opportunity. The Giants and Packers don't play their WRs on underneath routes - they both run vertical offenses and play to the skill of their WRs, not make their receivers adjust to a given gameplan. I think that's where Haley's offense falls apart - adjust to talent, not the other way around.

They can't catch anything so I think the type of routes are insignificant. Outside of Nate Washington catching a huge one on occasion - what type of routes do you think the last SB squad ran? They ran routes a helluva lot of the bunch formation and improv once the play broke down. I don't remember too many vertical game plans until Wallace showed up - and then, well, it was getting waaaay too greedy on the yardage when all we needed was a 1st down (ARIANS)

teegre
12-18-2012, 07:51 PM
MAKING THE PLAY-OFFS
I agree.

If they get in, they have more than a mere shot: they have BB... and I'll take BB over any other QB.

MISSING THE PLAY-OFFS
Dion Jordan would be the pick at 15-19ish. Followed by a safety (of which there are many).

SUMMATION
I foresee...

Lombardi #7 & Matt Elam at 32.

Also, I agree about Norv. He is a genius as an OC (but, horrible as a HC).

Edman
12-18-2012, 08:35 PM
The Playoffs start Sunday for the Steelers.

Beat Cincy, the door swings open to the postseason.

Lose and it's over, simple as that.

If the Steelers beat Cincy and Cleveland, they're in the playoffs.

desertsteel
12-18-2012, 09:08 PM
I like your level headed approach Canada. The bottom line is that in this age of free agency we are not going to win it every year. But the good news is that we have more of the trophies than any other team. When is the last time that the Patriots won one?

fer522
12-18-2012, 09:56 PM
If we make it this year- WIN THE DAMN THING IN 2013!!!
If we don't make it this year- YA GOT AN EASY SCHEDULE, WIN THE DAMN THING IN 2014!!!

dude!! whatever you're on... I want some:whine:

BritishSteel
12-19-2012, 05:12 AM
Can't disagree with any of that SC. If getting into the Playoffs, as badly as we've played in some games this season, isn't an indication that something's in the stars for this team, I don't know what is. I'll feel better when some of the injuries heal, but either way, it isn't like we haven't ever done it the hard way before. If we win the wild card round, then we probably end up in Houston, which would be my preference anyway over going to Denver or Foxboro.

If not, well then we draft higher and we'd better make it count. It might be interesting to see, if we don't make the post-season, whether the FO decide to 'pull the band-aid' and make the difficult team personnel choices now given that it might be a while again before we're drafting as high up the board as we would if we went, say 8-8 this season.

The_Joker
12-19-2012, 05:37 AM
dude!! whatever you're on... I want some:whine:

I worry for you if you disagree with me there...

torpedoshell31
12-19-2012, 01:25 PM
If we finish 3rd here are the teams we play next year, because we get the AFC East and the NFC North.
Patriots
Jets
Dolphins
Bills
Packers
Vikings
Bears
Lions
Ravens twice
Bengals twice
Browns twice
Now guess who the 3rd place teams we play are? Titans and Raiders again.

Rotorhead
12-19-2012, 02:14 PM
Tough schedule next season

teegre
12-19-2012, 03:17 PM
Tough schedule next season

I like tough schedules.

In 2008, the Steelers had the toughest schedule in the past 35 years... and did very well. The less "trap games" the better.

SteelersCanada
12-22-2012, 01:21 AM
I made this point in the other thread about mocks, but I feel it's still relevant and I'll post a much longer, much more thought out version of it.

If we lose out, we're going to be picking in the 11 - 13 range and have one of the best pass rushers on the board if we so choose to go that direction. I was looking back over the last decade to see how we've picked when we've had (by our standards) bad seasons and, more importantly, our picks after these seasons.

2003 Draft / 10 - 5 - 1

Going 10 - 5 - 1 isn't necessarily all bad, but it's not great, either. So, why is it on here? For those that don't remember, we picked a little known guy named Polamalu with the 16th pick in this draft. Again, this is mid-range and middle of the pack and managed to find him after having a mediocre season.

2004 NFL Draft / 6 - 10

This one I'll keep short and sweet - we got Roethlisberger after picking 11th. That's all I need to say.

2007 NFL Draft / 8-8

'07 might be one of our best drafts in the first two rounds in a long, long time. Why? We had picks in the middle of rounds. We managed to grab Timmons and Woodley and both are outstanding 'backers on this team. Having two picks in the first 46 was huge and allowed us to find talent even in the second round which is something we haven't been able to do when we're picking at 28 - 32 and 60 - 64 range.

2010 NFL Draft / 9-7

We grabbed Pouncey - arguably the best Center in the game right now - in the middle of the first round. Here's what could be more important, though - we were able to grab guys like Emmanuel Sanders too because we had picks in the middle of the third round and not the latter half of it.

It's important to note here that these guys are all integral parts of this team and were picked in the 10 - 20 range which allowed us to find talent in the middle of the later rounds as well. In a class like this that is so defensive-talent heavy, maybe going 7-9 wouldn't be a tragedy. Maybe going 7-9 is a small price to pay so we can win the AFC North again for the next 5 years and allow us to reload - not rebuild - this defense.

Maybe 7-9 ain't that bad after all.

CanuckCurtain
12-22-2012, 02:02 AM
Didn't we trade up to get Polamalu?

SteelersCanada
12-22-2012, 02:30 AM
Didn't we trade up to get Polamalu?

You're absolutely right. We would have been at 27 but traded up to 16 from the Chiefs. I guess the logic is still sound, though. We found our franchise SS in the mid-range of the round and not the back half.

steeltheone
12-22-2012, 08:21 AM
You're absolutely right. We would have been at 27 but traded up to 16 from the Chiefs. I guess the logic is still sound, though. We found our franchise SS in the mid-range of the round and not the back half.

TP had concussion issues and dropped in the draft.

steeltheone
12-22-2012, 08:27 AM
I made this point in the other thread about mocks, but I feel it's still relevant and I'll post a much longer, much more thought out version of it.

If we lose out, we're going to be picking in the 11 - 13 range and have one of the best pass rushers on the board if we so choose to go that direction. I was looking back over the last decade to see how we've picked when we've had (by our standards) bad seasons and, more importantly, our picks after these seasons.

2003 Draft / 10 - 5 - 1

Going 10 - 5 - 1 isn't necessarily all bad, but it's not great, either. So, why is it on here? For those that don't remember, we picked a little known guy named Polamalu with the 16th pick in this draft. Again, this is mid-range and middle of the pack and managed to find him after having a mediocre season.

2004 NFL Draft / 6 - 10

This one I'll keep short and sweet - we got Roethlisberger after picking 11th. That's all I need to say.

2007 NFL Draft / 8-8

'07 might be one of our best drafts in the first two rounds in a long, long time. Why? We had picks in the middle of rounds. We managed to grab Timmons and Woodley and both are outstanding 'backers on this team. Having two picks in the first 46 was huge and allowed us to find talent even in the second round which is something we haven't been able to do when we're picking at 28 - 32 and 60 - 64 range.

2010 NFL Draft / 9-7

We grabbed Pouncey - arguably the best Center in the game right now - in the middle of the first round. Here's what could be more important, though - we were able to grab guys like Emmanuel Sanders too because we had picks in the middle of the third round and not the latter half of it.

It's important to note here that these guys are all integral parts of this team and were picked in the 10 - 20 range which allowed us to find talent in the middle of the later rounds as well. In a class like this that is so defensive-talent heavy, maybe going 7-9 wouldn't be a tragedy. Maybe going 7-9 is a small price to pay so we can win the AFC North again for the next 5 years and allow us to reload - not rebuild - this defense.

Maybe 7-9 ain't that bad after all. Unfortunately Sanders has been a big Disappointment..At the rest of the young money thugs had 1 good year.

btaylor179
12-22-2012, 08:44 AM
yea starting this week its the playoffs for steelers.....dont wanna play at denver and the only reason is no Ryan Clark!!!!