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View Full Version : Who's been doing the best job drafting?


WokeUpWithaWoodley
01-29-2013, 05:53 PM
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Whos-been-doing-the-best-job-of-drafting.html

Steelers rank 29th in 10 year rankings and 27 in 5 year rankings.

harrison'samonster
01-29-2013, 05:59 PM
ouch

fansince'76
01-29-2013, 06:20 PM
Cardinals ranked #1 and the Browns ranked #3 in the 10-year rankings. The Chiefs ranked #1 and the Dolphins #2 in the 5-year rankings.

Grain of salt.

WokeUpWithaWoodley
01-29-2013, 06:27 PM
Cardinals ranked #1 and the Browns ranked #3 in the 10-year rankings. The Chiefs ranked #1 and the Dolphins #2 in the 5-year rankings.

Grain of salt.

Other highlights include:
• The best individual draft classes to date include the 2004 Chargers class, the 2008 Chiefs class and the Cowboys 2005 class.
-The Chargers 2004 draft class produced 617 starts and 4 Pro Bowl players
-The Chiefs 2008 class has six NFL starters, four of whom are still with the Chiefs
• The worst class by a team that had a first round draft choice is the Dolphins’ 2006 class
-57 total starts from the class
• Along with the Cardinals, the Falcons are probably the team that has performed best in the draft versus expectations
-Rated 10th in the 10-year review versus expected ranking of 26
-Rated 12th in the 5-year review versus expected ranking of 32
• As painful as it is for this long-time Steelers season ticket holder to admit, their draft performance has been weak
• The Lions 10-year performance versus expectations was the worst
-Ranked 31st versus expected ranking of 2nd
-The Rams weren’t much better with 27th ranking versus expected ranking of 3rd
-The Bengals join that group with 22nd ratings in both 10-year and 5-year reviews versus expected rating of 1st and 4th, respectively
• The Browns high ranking is driven by their 2011 and 2012 draft classes, with 198 games already started by those two classes
-Bills are next highest with 145
• Expectations for the Patriots have been high despite their typical late drafting position
-Expectation was 4th in 10-year review and 1st in 5-year review
-High number of total and third round draft choices


Yes take it lightly, it weighted heavily on the number of starts by players those teams drafted. And if the player goes to another team it counts for the team the drafted that player.

SteelersCanada
01-29-2013, 06:56 PM
29th in 10 years? Sure, I'll take 29th when we have won two Super Bowls and been to three in that time. The Cardinals and Browns sure have drafted well! I mean, look how great they've been doing! Oh, wait a sec. Well, they're ranking high in the last five too! They must be doing very well! Oh, what's that? They fired both their head coaches this year and are picking top 10? Well, that's interesting.

That list is horseshit.

steelfury02
01-29-2013, 07:35 PM
i appreciate the post - thanks for the research

game started isn't much of a great indicator though IMO - just my two cents

I'd like to see lower end draft picks and free agent lists for the last 10 sets of AFC, NFC championship game participants. What the two representatives have for this SB, and arguably for the last 5 SBs, is starter-ready depth from guys who were picked late, picked up off fa listings

WokeUpWithaWoodley
01-29-2013, 07:38 PM
29th in 10 years? Sure, I'll take 29th when we have won two Super Bowls and been to three in that time. The Cardinals and Browns sure have drafted well! I mean, look how great they've been doing! Oh, wait a sec. Well, they're ranking high in the last five too! They must be doing very well! Oh, what's that? They fired both their head coaches this year and are picking top 10? Well, that's interesting.

That list is horseshit.

No where in the article does it state that these rankings have affect on how successful teams have been. It's based on the number of starts by players those teams have drafted. Meaning those teams have drafted guys that have been durable and are able to hold onto a starting spot on a there team or another.

Drafting isn't the only factor on to why teams go to the superbowls, ie free agency, coaching, scheme, health, schedule etc.

And the steelers have been very successful but haven't drafted a lot of players who are not currently in the nfl still or players that are practice squad guys or career backups. Sure we have done great in round 1 and finding some gems later on but in most of our draft classes the last 10 years we have drafted a lot of guys who are currently not on a nfl roster or who are third stringers and such.

2009- joe Burnett, frank summers, rashon Harris, aq Shipley

2008- Limas sweed, Bruce Davis, tony hills, Dennis Dixon, mike humpal, Ryan mundy

2007- Matt spaeth, Daniel sepulveda, Ryan McLean, Cameron Stephenson, Dallas baker

2006- Anthony smith, Willie Reid, orien Harris, Omar Jacobs, Charles Davis, Marvin Phillp, Cedric humps

2005- Fred Gibson, rian Wallace, Shaun nua, Noah Herron

2004- Ricardo colclough, Nate adibi, Bo lacy, Matt kranchick, drew caylor, Eric Taylor

Etc.

Again we have dne great in round 1 and finding some key guys later but we have lots of wasted picks, that's what the article points out.

zcoop
01-29-2013, 07:50 PM
No where in the article does it state that these rankings have affect on how successful teams have been. It's based on the number of starts by players those teams have drafted. Meaning those teams have drafted guys that have been durable and are able to hold onto a starting spot on a there team or another.

Drafting isn't the only factor on to why teams go to the superbowls, ie free agency, coaching, scheme, health, schedule etc.

And the steelers have been very successful but haven't drafted a lot of players who are currently in the nfl still or players that are practice squad guys or career backups. Sure we have done great in round 1 and finding some gems later on but in most of our draft classes the last 10 years we have drafted a lot of guys who are currently not on a nfl roster or who are third stringers and such.

2009- joe Burnett, frank summers, rashon Harris, aq Shipley

2008- Limas sweed, Bruce Davis, tony hills, Dennis Dixon, mike humpal, Ryan mundy

2007- Matt spaeth, Daniel sepulveda, Ryan McLean, Cameron Stephenson, Dallas baker

2006- Anthony smith, Willie Reid, orien Harris, Omar Jacobs, Charles Davis, Marvin Phillp, Cedric humps

2005- Fred Gibson, rian Wallace, Shaun nua, Noah Herron

2004- Ricardo colclough, Nate adibi, Bo lacy, Matt kranchick, drew caylor, Eric Taylor

Etc.

Again we have dne great in round 1 and finding some key guys later but we have lots of wasted picks, that's what the article points out.

Point well taken, thanks for the explanation. Now I can understand where they're coming from.

SteelersCanada
01-29-2013, 07:53 PM
That's great, but one would have to make the assumption that drafting well would ultimately lead to playing well, but that hasn't been the case. I don't know what to make of it honestly. It's definitely misleading.

I get the point of the article and where you're coming from, but it's a little iffy. I mean, it's almost a kiss of death to be at the top of that list ya know.

steelfury02
01-29-2013, 08:21 PM
That's great, but one would have to make the assumption that drafting well would ultimately lead to playing well, but that hasn't been the case. I don't know what to make of it honestly. It's definitely misleading.

I get the point of the article and where you're coming from, but it's a little iffy. I mean, it's almost a kiss of death to be at the top of that list ya know.

I'm thinking that having more draft picks starting and still losing is an indicator of who you are drafting, and more importantly, why the people in charge are drafting them

EDIT: I can recall plenty of starters on those teams that I never would wish on any Steelers roster.

teegre
01-29-2013, 09:15 PM
2004: The Chargers cut Drew Brees, and drafted Philip Rivers... instead if Larry Fitzgersld.

Thus, instead of: Brees throwing to Fitzgerald, w/ LaDainian coming out of the backfield... well... they merely had LT (& a quasi-effective Rivers).

Ask any Chargers fan about how many "starts" they've gotten from that draft. (Don't ask. It's a sore subject with them.)

Regardless, your point is understood. BUT, how many of those players could not supplant the back-ups on this team... but, could start for other teams. Using the Chargers as a example, Tim Dobbins had a ton of starts for the Bolts... but, Timmons couldn't even crack the starting line-up (Farrior, Foote). If Timmons were a Charger, he'd have 32 more starts... but, it doesn't make Dobbins better than Timmons. Make sense?

Lastly, the past three drafts have been huge in ALL rounds.

desertsteel
01-29-2013, 09:36 PM
Cardinals ranked #1 and the Browns ranked #3 in the 10-year rankings. The Chiefs ranked #1 and the Dolphins #2 in the 5-year rankings.

Grain of salt.

Wow! After reading this I didn't even open the link.

Blacksburg Zach
01-29-2013, 10:18 PM
Whoever made that list should be fired.

austinfrench76
01-29-2013, 10:56 PM
We can all go back and forth on what the article is saying and the actual merit or the article but I take reality.
Past 10 years = 3 SB's, 2 SB wins - Steelers rank 2nd behind only NE in that time frame and are tied with NY for SB wins so we rank 2nd. Just my opinion.

MasterOfPuppets
01-30-2013, 12:14 AM
serious flawed logic in those rankings.... going by rookie starts ? the more rookies you have starting just means you have serious holes in your team and your desperate. how many rookies have started at qb for the browns in the past year ? by this logic the browns have had great success with those rookie qb's....:toofunny:

teegre
01-30-2013, 12:47 AM
serious flawed logic in those rankings.... going by rookie starts ? the more rookies you have starting just means you have serious holes in your team and your desperate. how many rookies have started at qb for the browns in the past year ? by this logic the browns have had great success with those rookie qb's....:toofunny:

Furthermore, Aaron Rodgers did not start for four seasons. Ergo, he must suck/that was a horrible pick by Green Bay.

maddog78
01-30-2013, 09:54 AM
Cardinals ranked #1 and the Browns ranked #3 in the 10-year rankings. The Chiefs ranked #1 and the Dolphins #2 in the 5-year rankings.

Grain of salt.

Yeah, the Rooneys need to model their franchise after those teams.

:rofl:

maddog78
01-30-2013, 09:58 AM
Point well taken, thanks for the explanation. Now I can understand where they're coming from.

Yeah, but it's easier for young players to start on crappy teams.

ebsteelers
01-30-2013, 12:50 PM
just look at the last 5 years how booty that list is.


ravens #21, playining in the super bowl, been to 3 afc championship games last 5 years
49ers # 24 back to back nfc title games, super bowl this year
steelers #27 2 super bowl apperances 1 win,
jets #28 2 afc title apperances
giants # 29 2 super bowls
saints # 30 super bowl win


maybe its a reverse order, from ravens down every one of those teams minus the jags have been in the playoffs recently..




this list is like my shorts ...pure $Hi+

maddog78
01-30-2013, 12:57 PM
just look at the last 5 years how booty that list is.


ravens #21, playining in the super bowl, been to 3 afc championship games last 5 years
49ers # 24 back to back nfc title games, super bowl this year
steelers #27 2 super bowl apperances 1 win,
jets #28 2 afc title apperances
giants # 29 2 super bowls
saints # 30 super bowl win


maybe its a reverse order, from ravens down every one of those teams minus the jags have been in the playoffs recently..




this list is like my shorts ...pure $Hi+

Exactly - it's easier for young guys to start right away on bad teams. The system he uses is inherently flawed.

Riddle_Of_Steel
01-30-2013, 01:29 PM
That's great, but one would have to make the assumption that drafting well would ultimately lead to playing well, but that hasn't been the case. I don't know what to make of it honestly. It's definitely misleading.

I get the point of the article and where you're coming from, but it's a little iffy. I mean, it's almost a kiss of death to be at the top of that list ya know.

Or maybe we aren't looking at the data in the correct context?

This is a list of drafting success from the last 10 years. How many of Cowher's players that took us to the last 3 Superbowls were drafted in the last 10 years and count against this tally? Most of them were probably drafetd around the very beginnning of that draft period, and tend to skew the results.

How we drafted in the last 4 or 5 years would not show up in our win percentages until several years later-- which is what we may be looking at today. A series of sub-par drafts have put us at a difficult crossroads, overpaying a bunch of aging veterans, while not having the money to sign any descent depth to our roster behind those guys.

Sure, we won 2 SBs and visited 3-- but some of that success was due to parts put in palce prior to, or near the edge of this statistical study. We have not drafted well in the last 10 years-- not enough to maintain the level of success we have enjoyed. And we are now seing the drop-off in 8-8 seasons and getting knocked out of the playoffs by Timmy Tryhard.

If you look, the Browns appear to be on the rise, while the Steelers are in decline.

But also, as someone already stated, going purely by the number of starts is misleading. Teams like the Browns routinely draft players to fill immediate needs, thus more of their rookies will get starting time and teh results get skewed even further.

desertsteel
01-30-2013, 01:45 PM
Sure, we won 2 SBs and visited 3-- but

This statement, embedded in so many posts around here lately, never, ever ceases to amaze me.

Some take this so lightly, as if every team was going to the super bowl on a regular basis, therefore, caveats need to be added.

teegre
01-30-2013, 02:16 PM
This statement, embedded in so many posts around here lately, never, ever ceases to amaze me.

Some take this so lightly, as if every team was going to the super bowl on a regular basis, therefore, caveats need to be added.

Yeah... but... when Chargers fans walk up to me & declare, "We had the best draft in the past decade!!!"... well... how will I ever respond to THAT!?!

:wink02:

pczach
01-30-2013, 02:40 PM
Shitty teams with shitty players draft high. Those players drafted usually play immediately because those teams have shitty players. Just because they replace shitty players doesn't mean they can play any better than the shitty player they replaced. Therefore, the new shitty players continue the downward slide of the shitty franchises causing them to pick more shitty players to start immediately............repeat...............repeat . And that, my friends, is how shit is made.

What genius came up with starts being such an important part of these rankings? Unbelievable.....

ebsteelers
01-30-2013, 03:20 PM
lol the chefs,

team changes coaches as much as i change my underwear....


how peachy we now have 2 former chefs coaches on our staff

steelfury02
01-30-2013, 03:50 PM
i couldnt stand the last time we got a player from the lowly Rams, or that one time we got our D coordinator back from the crappy Bengals, or that LB from the lowly Jets

I REALLY HATE that guy who was assistant under Marty with Browns and Chiefs I hate that QB coach from 07-09 who played on the crappy ass Bengals.

Get my point?

pczach
01-30-2013, 03:57 PM
i couldnt stand the last time we got a player from the lowly Rams, or that one time we got our D coordinator back from the crappy Bengals, or that LB from the lowly Jets

I REALLY HATE that guy who was assistant under Marty with Browns and Chiefs I hate that QB coach from 07-09 who played on the crappy ass Bengals.

Get my point?

Exactly! Even when these loser teams have great pieces, many times they don't realize what they have. That's why they lose consistently.

steelfury02
01-30-2013, 03:59 PM
Exactly! Even when these loser teams have great pieces, many times they don't realize what they have. That's why they lose consistently.

yup - the ownership and scouting personnel on teams that have consistently loss tend to lose their better talents to better opportunities

Steelers5895
01-30-2013, 05:50 PM
Can we really get a ready on some of these late round players? Steelers very rarely play their first rounders in year 1 let along a 4th rounder. So we never know if we have any gems drafted late.