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View Full Version : Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats


thethinkingguy
03-26-2013, 10:47 PM
Fellow fans, the Drinking Guy and I have published our next article, which is an introduction to Expected Points - an interesting concept - and how the Steelers can benefit from its adoption.

Steel City Stats (http://www.steelcitystats.com/an-introduction-to-expected-points/)

SteelersCanada
03-26-2013, 11:23 PM
Holy shit. Good work. I'll leave something more intelligent tomorrow as I only glanced over it tonight, but wow, good work.

Hawaii 5-0
03-26-2013, 11:56 PM
I think your names "The Thinking Guy" and "The Drinking Guy" are pretty clever also...:drink:

JackH
03-27-2013, 09:19 AM
Interesting article, but here is the question I have pertaining to expected points:

How many expected points for the Steelers passing game next season?

The Steelers offense ranked #21 in offense last season. 27 passing TDs. Mike Wallace had 8 of those and Heath Miller also had 8. Wallace is gone and who knows when Heath will be back.

Who is going to make up for the TDs that are not going to be scored by Wallace and Miller? Sanders had 1 last season and Brown had 5. Brown, although he had over 1,000 yards in 2011, only had 2 TD catches. Also, our receivers are not going to have the benefit of Wallace being doubled on occasion.

So where does that leave the Steelers in terms of TDs from the passing game this coming season? And what do the Steelers do about it?

WVABE
03-27-2013, 09:44 AM
Interesting article, but here is the question I have pertaining to expected points:

How many expected points for the Steelers passing game next season?

The Steelers offense ranked #21 in offense last season. 27 passing TDs. Mike Wallace had 8 of those and Heath Miller also had 8. Wallace is gone and who knows when Heath will be back.

Who is going to make up for the TDs that are not going to be scored by Wallace and Miller? Sanders had 1 last season and Brown had 5. Brown, although he had over 1,000 yards in 2011, only had 2 TD catches. Also, our receivers are not going to have the benefit of Wallace being doubled on occasion.

So where does that leave the Steelers in terms of TDs from the passing game this coming season? And what do the Steelers do about it?Well for starters keeping Ben off the ground in the red zone would help, and JC has the best hands on the team but is underused major. Hopefully someone wakes the hell up and use our talent correctly :pissed:

harrison'samonster
03-27-2013, 10:09 AM
nice post again. Thanks! Personally I'd take the $5. Doesn't it all come down to execution. Even if you go for the "guaranteed" it all comes down to whether or not the players make the plays.

JackH
03-27-2013, 10:53 AM
Well for starters keeping Ben off the ground in the red zone would help, and JC has the best hands on the team but is underused major. Hopefully someone wakes the hell up and use our talent correctly :pissed:

Do you know how many times Ben was sacked in the red zone? That would be an interesting stat. I'm not going to take the time to figure it out if you already know the answer.

Of course, there are two sides to that coin, keeping Ben off the ground -- the OL doing a decent job and the receivers getting open, otherwise Ben is going to hold onto the ball and try to make a play.

Yeah, I like JC's hands, but he doesn't seem to get much separation. Then you got the guys like former Steeler Wallace, Brown, and perhaps former Steeler Sanders who got separation but who couldn't hang onto the ball. Remember that play in the second game against the Ravens when Sanders caught the ball wide open in the middle of the field and looked like he was headed for paydirt? But no, he coughed it up, or he would likely have had 2 TD catches for the season instead of one. The only guy who could get separation and hang onto the ball was Heath.