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-   -   ESPN Defensive Positional Value (http://forums.steelersfever.com/showthread.php?t=16394)

lamberts-lost-tooth 04-22-2007 05:56 AM

ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Espn has an excellent break down of the percentage of NFL starting players (for the 2006 season) and the round they were drafted in..I thought it was very telling as to what positions have better value in later rounds as opposed to what positions should be drafted higher.

Here is the Defensive Breakdown.


DT
Round 1: 32%
Round 2: 12%
Round 3: 11%
Round 4: 7%
Round 5: 9%
Round 6: 12%
Round 7: 5%
Undrafted: 12%
Seventeen teams start at least one first rounder, including 5 of the 7 3-4 defenses..Jacksonville is the only team that starts two first rounders

DE
Round 1: 41%
Round 2: 17%
Round 3: 9%
Round 4: 11%
Round 5: 5%
Round 6: 3%
Round 7: 5%
Undrafted: 9%
Teams tend to look for game changing DE's in the first round, but there are plenty of quality ends to be found in rounds 2-4...and even later.

ILB
Round 1: 23%
Round 2: 10%
Round 3: 23%
Round 4: 15%
Round 5: 8%
Round 6: 0%
Round 7: 3%
Undrafted: 18%
Value in every round until the 5th...Most lower round starters are guys with smaller size but outstanding instincts like Gary Brackett,London Fletcher-Baker & Zach Thomas.

OLB
Round 1: 27%
Round 2: 17%
Round 3: 16%
Round 4: 16%
Round 5: 8%
Round 6: 6%
Round 7: 3%
Undrafted: 8%
This is the position that follows the most linear downward path from round to round...although stars can be found late...Adalius Thomas, Scott Fujita, Dhani Jones....etc.
* side note* 4 out of 6 OLB's voted to this years Pro Bowl play in a 3-4...and none of them played full-time OLB in college but rather DE or DE/OLB.

CB
Round 1: 36%
Round 2: 27%
Round 3: 13%
Round 4: 14%
Round 5: 0%
Round 6: 3%
Round 7: 2%
Undrafted: 6%
You can find starters after round 1..but rarely after round 4...only Oakland started two first rounders last year...First round busts almost ALWAYS had only one full year as a starter in college.

Safeties
Round 1: 11%
Round 2: 36%
Round 3: 14%
Round 4: 9%
Round 5: 13%
Round 6: 5%
Round 7: 3%
Undrafted: 9%
This is the only position where talent peaks in the second round...but the elite (Reed, Polamalu, Williams) usually come in the first)

Specialists
Round 1: 2%
Round 2: 3%
Round 3: 9%
Round 4: 9%
Round 5: 5%
Round 6: 6%
Round 7: 9%
Undrafted: 56%
Both Superbowl K's (Vinatieri and Gould) were UFA's..and the Punters were a 3rd and 7th rounder...So when is a good time to draft a Kicker or Punter?..Teams that lost a couple of close games will start looking in the 3rd or 4th...but wise teams resist..the number of drafted kickers or Punters who develop into long lasting NFl players is astonishingly low.

Livinginthe past 04-22-2007 06:38 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
I think a success rate % would have been even more informative - its seems fairly obvious that the players with the most chance of success are found in the 1st round.

Positions regarded as 'high impact' - such as CB, DE and OLB will always be more heavily selected in the earlier rounds.

I think this comes down to the fact that their stats are always alot more accessible (INT's, sacks) and its easier to compile highlight reels of their 'big plays'.

Safeties are gradually coming back into vogue, just like TE's did a few years back - I read an article where these guys were often CB's who were relatively substandard athletes, but now you see 3 or 4 of them with 1st round rankings.

Even though its not mentioned (with typical anti-Patriot bias :sofunny:) all 3 of New Englands D-line starters are 1st rounders.

lamberts-lost-tooth 04-22-2007 07:17 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Livinginthe past (Post 239871)
I think a success rate % would have been even more informative - its seems fairly obvious that the players with the most chance of success are found in the 1st round.

Positions regarded as 'high impact' - such as CB, DE and OLB will always be more heavily selected in the earlier rounds.

I think this comes down to the fact that their stats are always alot more accessible (INT's, sacks) and its easier to compile highlight reels of their 'big plays'.

Safeties are gradually coming back into vogue, just like TE's did a few years back - I read an article where these guys were often CB's who were relatively substandard athletes, but now you see 3 or 4 of them with 1st round rankings.

Even though its not mentioned (with typical anti-Patriot bias :sofunny:) all 3 of New Englands D-line starters are 1st rounders.

Just transcribing the article..no biasm on my part brother!!

Livinginthe past 04-22-2007 07:23 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lamberts-lost-tooth (Post 239876)
Just transcribing the article..no biasm on my part brother!!

Heh, I know - I did mean to write that it was ESPn that had typical anti-Patriots bias (tongue in cheek of course!)

SteelCzar76 04-22-2007 08:17 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Sooooo,....basically,...if in doubt,.....draft the best DE or CB still on the board in the 1st ?

lamberts-lost-tooth 04-22-2007 08:34 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelCzar76 (Post 239886)
Sooooo,....basically,...if in doubt,.....draft the best DE or CB still on the board in the 1st ?

Probably not a bad idea if youre starters are set....and you stay away from those players with only one good year of college stats

SteelCzar76 04-22-2007 08:54 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lamberts-lost-tooth (Post 239887)
Probably not a bad idea if youre starters are set....and you stay away from those players with one good year of college stats




My sentiments exactly Tooth. Which will allow me this brief opportunity to,...once again nominate Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker, Tedd Ginn (convert to corner) Chris Houston, or maybe even Leon Hall for our 1st round selection.
As you can see,.... my 'Pimp Hand' is indeed,..... 'StronglikeKong'. :sofunny:

lamberts-lost-tooth 04-22-2007 09:42 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelCzar76 (Post 239890)
My sentiments exactly Tooth. Which will allow me this brief opportunity to,...once again nominate Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker, Tedd Ginn (convert to corner) Chris Houston, or maybe even Leon Hall for our 1st round selection.
As you can see,.... my 'Pimp Hand' is indeed,..... 'StronglikeKong'. :sofunny:

Agree with most of those with the exception of Ginn and Anderson...Anderson only started one full year...HOWEVER when he came in as a sophmore after Anthony Browns injury,,he played extremely well, and then had a strong Junior year...Ginn worries me..since he is reported to have a fumbling problem.

I will add Revis to your list...I am becoming sold on him after seeing some his highlights on Sportscenter.

SteelCzar76 04-22-2007 10:46 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lamberts-lost-tooth (Post 239917)
Agree with most of those with the exception of Ginn and Anderson...Anderson only started one full year...HOWEVER when he came in as a sophmore after Anthony Browns injury,,he played extremely well, and then had a strong Junior year...Ginn worries me..since he is reported to have a fumbling problem.

I will add Revis to your list...I am becoming sold on him after seeing some his highlights on Sportscenter.



I can see your point regarding Anderson's relative inexperience. But, i'm impressed with his athletic upside and his frame which will allow room for growth.
As far as Ginn,...i was thinking more along the lines of sleeper as a converted Corner/Special teams phenom. Moreso as oppossed to just a pure receiver.

Now regarding Revis,.....i can't say i'm sold LLT. He was 'solid' in college. (from what i saw) But he didn't look that much more impressive to me than cats like Hall, Ross or Mcaughley. I tend to think he's being given such late push 'Pub' because of his PA roots.IMO

tony hipchest 04-22-2007 11:14 AM

Re: ESPN Defensive Positional Value
 
tomlin has too much on the line to draft a gamble project with the 15 pick. too much risk involved despite the possible reward.

from the article- ufa ilb's buck the trend with 18%. only 1st and 3rd rounders produce more starters.

i heard an interresting stat being thrown around on sirius last week. UFA's make up 23% of all combined teams rosters. only 1st rounders and 2nd rounders make up a higher % of the league.

green bay leads the league (i think its 16 or so). the steelers only have about 3. both teams finished 8-8. food for thought.


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