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-   -   Division Not Out of Reach? (http://forums.steelersfever.com/showthread.php?t=94511)

RichardCullinanForever 12-05-2012 12:29 PM

Division Not Out of Reach?
 
Now, this doesn't make as big of a difference as last year (with a bye at stake), but if I'm calculating this correctly, the Steelers winning the division isn't completely out of the picture. In fact, I think our chances are better than people are giving us credit for (even though they are obviously below 50-50)

With 4 to play, the Ravens will play the Redskins, Giants, Broncos, and Bengals

Washington is playing for a division, and is never a team to be overlooked.

The Giants are the Giants, also playing for a playoff spot

The Broncos, I imagine, will be fighting with the Patriots for the two seed (even though the Pats have a far harder schedule remaining)

The Bengals will likely be playing for the 6th wild card spot, at home, last week of the season.

My point being, none of these are going to be easy games. And we know that the Ravens like to keep things close (take the Cowboys and Chargers game).

Okay, I'll try to keep this short.

The Steelers are getting healthy (except for Ike, but honestly, I'm not too too worried about that - our back up corners are capable, as Tomlin would say).

Our schedule is not too difficult, playing 3 of the 4 games at home. With Ben back, turnovers down, and motivation high, I think we can run the table. Sure, I could see us fucking up like we did in Oakland against the Cowboys or something, but our D has been playing with a chip on their shoulder since the midway point of this season. Honestly remind me of the defenses of past (our 12-4 defense last year wasn't intimidating at all, regardless of what stats show)


Okay, all that being said, this is where things get interesting - If we win out, and the Ravens lose two of the remaining 4 (which I think is entirely likely), we COULD have the tiebreaker over them. It first looks at head to head (tie), then at division record (Bengals need to beat the Ravens, and we need to beat the Browns and Bengals), and THEN at record in common games. I tallied it up, and since we've beaten every team the Ravens will play except the Broncos, I think this is where we can win the tiebreaker.

Anyone that made it through this shit show of a post deserves a beer, on me. :drink: Comments?

RichardCullinanForever 12-05-2012 12:33 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
All of that being said, if we were to take the division, we would still be a 4th seed, and the Ravens would probably be a 5th seed, so all that would change is we would play the Rats in our house instead of theirs. Either way, we aint fucking losing to that team in the postseason. They do not scare me - or anyone in our locker room - one bit... Now the teams that do scare me are New England and Denver. And even the Texans, simply because of Arian Foster (Schaub won't make this D flinch).

lipps83 12-05-2012 12:35 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
I would just rather see us win out and the Ravens lose 4 more and there not be any question.

Darkstorm05 12-05-2012 12:40 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
IMO, we shouldn't be back to overlooking opponents again. San Diego is my only worry. I'll consider what the Ravens are doing sometime after Christmas, maybe.

steelerchad 12-05-2012 12:56 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCullinanForever (Post 1059091)
Now, this doesn't make as big of a difference as last year (with a bye at stake), but if I'm calculating this correctly, the Steelers winning the division isn't completely out of the picture. In fact, I think our chances are better than people are giving us credit for (even though they are obviously below 50-50)

With 4 to play, the Ravens will play the Redskins, Giants, Broncos, and Bengals

Washington is playing for a division, and is never a team to be overlooked.

The Giants are the Giants, also playing for a playoff spot

The Broncos, I imagine, will be fighting with the Patriots for the two seed (even though the Pats have a far harder schedule remaining)

The Bengals will likely be playing for the 6th wild card spot, at home, last week of the season.

My point being, none of these are going to be easy games. And we know that the Ravens like to keep things close (take the Cowboys and Chargers game).

Okay, I'll try to keep this short.

The Steelers are getting healthy (except for Ike, but honestly, I'm not too too worried about that - our back up corners are capable, as Tomlin would say).

Our schedule is not too difficult, playing 3 of the 4 games at home. With Ben back, turnovers down, and motivation high, I think we can run the table. Sure, I could see us fucking up like we did in Oakland against the Cowboys or something, but our D has been playing with a chip on their shoulder since the midway point of this season. Honestly remind me of the defenses of past (our 12-4 defense last year wasn't intimidating at all, regardless of what stats show)


Okay, all that being said, this is where things get interesting - If we win out, and the Ravens lose two of the remaining 4 (which I think is entirely likely), we COULD have the tiebreaker over them. It first looks at head to head (tie), then at division record (Bengals need to beat the Ravens, and we need to beat the Browns and Bengals), and THEN at record in common games. I tallied it up, and since we've beaten every team the Ravens will play except the Broncos, I think this is where we can win the tiebreaker.

Anyone that made it through this shit show of a post deserves a beer, on me. :drink: Comments?

unfortunately your calculation is not correct. In your scenario, the tie-breaker would go head to head, which is split, then division record, which would be 4-2 each, then common opponents. This is where we would lose any tie-breaker with the Ravens. If they go 2-2 with losses to the Bengals and one of the other 3 teams (all of which we've played) that would give them a 9-3 common opponent record, which is what we could have if we win out. This would push it the the 4th tie breaker, conference record, which we would lose. They've lost to Philly and us running the table would give us an undefeated record against the NFC, and one additional loss in the AFC.

They need to go 1-3 and we need to win out. Only way.

The Oakland game is a common opponent loss for us and win for them.

StainlessStill 12-05-2012 12:56 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
F*ck the division. LETS GET THAT LOMBARDI!

maddog78 12-05-2012 12:57 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
Dallas, Cincy, and Cleveland are all playing their best ball of the year right now. SD isn't, but they're also in games until the end.

Don't see any layups, especially the way this team has played most of the year.

StainlessStill 12-05-2012 01:00 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
I expect us to handle Cleveland in round deuce and it could get out of hand for S.D coming into here. MIGHT be the first slaughter we've put on a team in awhile this weekend. S.D is as vulnerable as ever and we're due to kill.

Other than that, I expect Dallas and Cincy to be tight and close.

4xSBChamps 12-05-2012 01:03 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCullinanForever (Post 1059091)
... and we know that the Ravens like to keep things close...

while the Steelers (who have played up-or-down to the level of their competition for the last year) can't overlook any opponent, you have to wonder how the Purple-Browns will react, after having blown a 10-point lead at-home in their most recent Super Bowl

Steelers>NFL 12-05-2012 01:05 PM

Re: Division Not Out of Reach?
 
Ha! Steelers need to take care of their business first! Forget division. Win against SD first. We all know, Steelers play DOWN to level of their competition. So, I expect this game against SD be a nail biter. Win or lose.


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