oversampling of Dem polls inflates Obama's backing
September 19, 2012
CBS POLL: GOP HAS HUGE TURNOUT EDGE OVER DEMS
One of the chief reasons the media is so mistaken in their zeal to proclaim Obama the election winner is that most of the polls they're basing their predictions on are wildly inflating Democrat turnout.
The overwhelming majority of media polls are assuming an electorate that is at least as Democrat as the one in 2008, with many polls assuming a higher Democrat turnout. This is just daft. The latest CBS poll of 3 swing states is the most recent to show that GOP has a huge turnout advantage over Democrats.
Yesterday, CBS/NYT released its latest Quinnipiac poll of Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin. With the exception of CO, the polls had heavy Democrat skews, so the head-to-head match-ups aren't particularly informative. What was telling though was the differences in enthusiasm between the two parties.
In all three states, a majority of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year, compared to about a third of Democrats who are. In Colorado and Virginia, GOP voters are more enthusiastic than Democrats by a 15 point margin. In Wisconsin, GOP enthusiasm outpaces Democrats by 16 points.
oh, those young birkenstock hippies that were drooling for Barry in '08 just found out their trust funds are going bye-bye to pay for Obama's "redistribution of weallth".