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Old 10-30-2012, 12:17 PM   #270
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Default Re: presidential debate

Originally Posted by Killer View Post
With power out and transportation down in large areas of the Northeast, no subway service and no expectations of things being back to normal by next Tues, I'd say Obama just lost millions of blue country votes.
That really doesn't make a lot of difference. All depends on how the electoral college votes. And NY, NJ, NH, RI, PA, and WV are all states where electors are not bound to any pledge or political party. Just keep that in mind before you get all excited.

What if there's an Electoral College tie? Let's join Wolf over at the virtual reality dome to game out the possibility for the next ten minutes! But this year there is a real possibility that we could get a crazy scenario, one in which Mitt Romney wins the popular vote, but Barack Obama wins the Electoral College. If that reverse of 2000 happened, would everyone on both sides suddenly switch their positions on the Electoral College?

Saying it's a real possibility doesn't mean that it's likely (Nate Silver puts the likelihood at 2.5 percent today), but the reason people are taking it seriously (and starting to write articles about it) is two characteristics of the race at the moment. First, according to the poll averages Romney looks to have a tiny lead overall: says two-tenths of a point, RealClearPolitics says nine-tenths of a point, TPM says eight-tenths of a point. Yet Obama is positioned much better in the Electoral College. He has clear leads in the swing states of Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin, and has led in nearly every poll of Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, he wins. But even if he loses Ohio and Florida, he could still win by grabbing Virginia (where the latest Washington Post poll has him ahead by four points), or by taking Colorado and New Hampshire. There are lots of ways to reconfigure things, but the point is that the scenarios for Romney winning the Electoral College all require him to take multiple states where polls show him clearly behind, whereas the scenarios for Obama winning involve him winning states where he's leading. Hurricane Sandy may make this scenario more likely if it depresses turnout along the eastern seaboard where Obama is likely to pile up lots of votes in states like Maryland, New Jersey, and New York.
Look at these eyebrows. These are attack eyebrows! They could take off bottle caps!
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