Re: Draft based on...?
I would say Safety, ILB, and RB are the top areas of need right now and should be addressed in the first three rounds. Safety or ILB in the first as there is much better defensive talent there than there will be at RB.
My RB feelings might just be because of the fumbles today, but at the same time I feel the RB-by-committee approach just doesn't work well and having one back to give 17+ carries to a game and allowing them to get in a rhythm is a much better approach. Dwyer gets gassed too easily and Redman and Mendy have both proven they can't handle it.
Otherwise our recent struggles haven't really changed anything in my mind. We need a safety to replace Troy (who clearly is nearing the end of his career), maybe even a second one to replace Clark although he isn't as immediate a concern. Spence COULD be the answer at ILB but at the same time we don't really have a window to see if he is before the next draft, and there is a lot of good ILB value at the end of the first and into the second.
Obviously a backup QB is needed but at the earliest round 4.
Otherwise I think we are pretty much set personnel-wise at Oline, WR, DL, CB, and OLB (Yes, I still think Worilds can replace Harrison). Some depth picks in later rounds could be useful but no reason to take any of those positions early.