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Old 12-05-2012, 01:56 PM   #5
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Default Re: Division Not Out of Reach?

Originally Posted by RichardCullinanForever View Post
Now, this doesn't make as big of a difference as last year (with a bye at stake), but if I'm calculating this correctly, the Steelers winning the division isn't completely out of the picture. In fact, I think our chances are better than people are giving us credit for (even though they are obviously below 50-50)

With 4 to play, the Ravens will play the Redskins, Giants, Broncos, and Bengals

Washington is playing for a division, and is never a team to be overlooked.

The Giants are the Giants, also playing for a playoff spot

The Broncos, I imagine, will be fighting with the Patriots for the two seed (even though the Pats have a far harder schedule remaining)

The Bengals will likely be playing for the 6th wild card spot, at home, last week of the season.

My point being, none of these are going to be easy games. And we know that the Ravens like to keep things close (take the Cowboys and Chargers game).

Okay, I'll try to keep this short.

The Steelers are getting healthy (except for Ike, but honestly, I'm not too too worried about that - our back up corners are capable, as Tomlin would say).

Our schedule is not too difficult, playing 3 of the 4 games at home. With Ben back, turnovers down, and motivation high, I think we can run the table. Sure, I could see us fucking up like we did in Oakland against the Cowboys or something, but our D has been playing with a chip on their shoulder since the midway point of this season. Honestly remind me of the defenses of past (our 12-4 defense last year wasn't intimidating at all, regardless of what stats show)

Okay, all that being said, this is where things get interesting - If we win out, and the Ravens lose two of the remaining 4 (which I think is entirely likely), we COULD have the tiebreaker over them. It first looks at head to head (tie), then at division record (Bengals need to beat the Ravens, and we need to beat the Browns and Bengals), and THEN at record in common games. I tallied it up, and since we've beaten every team the Ravens will play except the Broncos, I think this is where we can win the tiebreaker.

Anyone that made it through this shit show of a post deserves a beer, on me. Comments?
unfortunately your calculation is not correct. In your scenario, the tie-breaker would go head to head, which is split, then division record, which would be 4-2 each, then common opponents. This is where we would lose any tie-breaker with the Ravens. If they go 2-2 with losses to the Bengals and one of the other 3 teams (all of which we've played) that would give them a 9-3 common opponent record, which is what we could have if we win out. This would push it the the 4th tie breaker, conference record, which we would lose. They've lost to Philly and us running the table would give us an undefeated record against the NFC, and one additional loss in the AFC.

They need to go 1-3 and we need to win out. Only way.

The Oakland game is a common opponent loss for us and win for them.
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