Originally Posted by teegre
The part that gets me is the on-side kick.
Statistically, converting a 4th & 15 is something like less than 12%. No team would dare attempt it, because if one fails, then the other team would ALREADY be in FG range. Risk reward means that NO ONE would attempt the 4th & 15.
During the first 3 quarters of play (when teams are not expecting it), the on-side kick works about 50% of the time. This rule would essentially eliminate that altogether. 50% versus 12%... again, no one is taking those odds, especially when it puts the opposition in FG range.
Furthermore, at the end of games, the team that is behind would have NO shot at getting the ball back.
Think of it this way. You are down by 14 points. You score a TD, move within 7 points, and then you are forced to attempt a 4th & 15... which you will fail 88% of the time. Thus, the other team gets an easy field goal, and you are now once again down by 10 (two scores). At least with the on-side kick, if you fail to get the ball back (only a 15% conversion rate, in the fourth quarter), the other team still has to go 20 yards before they kick a FG.
That's the part that bothers me: no on-side kick.
Not sure where you got your percentages, but on Mike and Mike the other morning they stated that a study by someone, forgot his name, that onside kicks had a 21% success (that included "surprise" kicks though), and 4th and 15 also had a 21% success. Thus, the Czar's plans.
What gets me is nobody seems to be discussing his plans to also abolish blocks below the waist which would basically end the running game, turn the NFL into the Arena League.