Originally Posted by Steel Warrior
Not sure where you got your percentages, but on Mike and Mike the other morning they stated that a study by someone, forgot his name, that onside kicks had a 21% success (that included "surprise" kicks though), and 4th and 15 also had a 21% success. Thus, the Czar's plans.
I listen mostly to Colin Cowherd, but I was also listening to a SD station and an LA station (all three stations were talking about it).
The first three quarters had far less attempted on-side kicks, but they listed attempts in those quarters as being around 50% successful. There are far more late-game/fourth quarter attempts, and the percentage drops to 12%... so, if one were to average the entire game, it would likely be about 21%.
They talked about the stat for 4th & 15 being skewed because teams rarely attempt 4th & that long... except for desperate circumstances , and in those desperate times, the opposition is usually playing prevent, and thus, it becomes far more easily converted (than a normal 4th & 15). They said that if one takes out late-game, last-ditch 4th & longs, that the average conversion for "normal" 4th & 15s was about 12%.
But, I was driving/commuting... and avoiding a few multi-car pile-ups while doing so. So, my numbers might be slightly off (but, those are the numbers that I indeed recall hearing).
Also, I remember the two numbers being identical, which I found interesting (12% and 12%). BUT, it could have been a driving/distracted/dyslexic moment... meaning that it could have been 21% and 21%... (although, I remember it as 12%).