View Single Post
Old 12-07-2012, 11:40 PM   #28
Living Legend
teegre's Avatar

Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 18,152
Member Number: 24108
Thanks: 28,187
Thanked 29,667 Times in 11,980 Posts
My Mood: Dead
Default Re: King Goodell open to eliminating kickoffs

Originally Posted by Steel Warrior View Post
Not sure where you got your percentages, but on Mike and Mike the other morning they stated that a study by someone, forgot his name, that onside kicks had a 21% success (that included "surprise" kicks though), and 4th and 15 also had a 21% success. Thus, the Czar's plans.
I listen mostly to Colin Cowherd, but I was also listening to a SD station and an LA station (all three stations were talking about it).

The first three quarters had far less attempted on-side kicks, but they listed attempts in those quarters as being around 50% successful. There are far more late-game/fourth quarter attempts, and the percentage drops to 12%... so, if one were to average the entire game, it would likely be about 21%.

They talked about the stat for 4th & 15 being skewed because teams rarely attempt 4th & that long... except for desperate circumstances , and in those desperate times, the opposition is usually playing prevent, and thus, it becomes far more easily converted (than a normal 4th & 15). They said that if one takes out late-game, last-ditch 4th & longs, that the average conversion for "normal" 4th & 15s was about 12%.

But, I was driving/commuting... and avoiding a few multi-car pile-ups while doing so. So, my numbers might be slightly off (but, those are the numbers that I indeed recall hearing).

Also, I remember the two numbers being identical, which I found interesting (12% and 12%). BUT, it could have been a driving/distracted/dyslexic moment... meaning that it could have been 21% and 21%... (although, I remember it as 12%).
teegre is offline   Reply With Quote