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Old 01-23-2013, 05:41 PM   #17
Riddle_Of_Steel
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Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
Great comments, all, and thank you for the compliments. And Riddle of Steel, you can never go wrong with a Conan reference in my book...
If the "Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women" part were shorter-- I would have taken that as a pseudonym LOL.

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Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
The article is not trying, and the model is not predicting, that rushing the ball is useless. What the model notes is that passing the ball well is more conducive to winning than is running the ball well over the last three years. I think you all know this intuitively to be true, but I'm just trying to show it statistically.

Surely running the ball is valuable, it just doesn't predict wins as well as passing does, that's the bottom line. The new NFL analytical way of thinking is as follows: Winning teams that run the ball well do so mainly because they're passing well. They're running once the pass is established as a lethal means of attack.
Fair enough. I have to keep in mind too that statistics show overall trends, and that exceptions, while they do occur, get flattened out over time and their impact is minimalized when you factor everything in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
If you're into this kind of stuff, I encourage you to follow me and my partner on Twitter at @the_thinkingguy and @the_drinkingguy. We'll tweet out (and I'll try to remember to come back here and post) when a new article is posted to www.steelcitystats.com
I was into statistics when I was majoring in psych, but have since moved on to IP network engineering. (my trade today). I forgot nearly everything I learned in college statistics-- although when someone lays it out as well as you did-- it is not hard to follow, even for a laymen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
As far as the question on San Diego...I think you meant the 2010 Chargers, right? The model predicts they should have won 10.5 games. They went 9 and 7. The standard deviation for wins is 2.5 in the league, so the model accurately predicts this.
Not bad at all. Keep the good information flowing....
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