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Old 10-07-2006, 08:31 PM   #13
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

Originally Posted by Livinginthe past View Post
How much money are we talking?

I'll take a $10 bet with you, if you are willing to do it through paypal.

For the record, spinning a coin and have it come down heads 20 times consecutively does not make it more likely to fall tails on the next throw - that is established statistical theory.

2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.
You're putting words in my mouth. I said no such thing.

A coin only has two sides, but Ben has a better than 50% win record. So for any given game, odds are he's going to make more like 70% of the plays.

A better analogy for Ben is a game die. For any given roll, you're more than likely going to get a number higher than a 1. But it's also easy to roll a 1 twice in a row. However, roll again and the odds are in your favor to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

The reason I said the odds are good Ben has a good game is not because he's had two bad ones, but because history shows he's always more likely to have a good game than not (vs. other qb's).

As for the money: no thanks. My premise is not based on a passer rating or TD-INT stats, but that Ben is not Jinxed or suffering PTSD. I guess I would be willing to bet on a Win, BUT then two other players could fumble at the end of the game again and the loss would not be due to Ben being Jinxed.
theropodx is offline   Reply With Quote