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Old 10-07-2006, 09:31 PM   #13
theropodx
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

Quote:
Originally Posted by Livinginthe past View Post
How much money are we talking?

I'll take a $10 bet with you, if you are willing to do it through paypal.

For the record, spinning a coin and have it come down heads 20 times consecutively does not make it more likely to fall tails on the next throw - that is established statistical theory.

2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.
You're putting words in my mouth. I said no such thing.

A coin only has two sides, but Ben has a better than 50% win record. So for any given game, odds are he's going to make more like 70% of the plays.

A better analogy for Ben is a game die. For any given roll, you're more than likely going to get a number higher than a 1. But it's also easy to roll a 1 twice in a row. However, roll again and the odds are in your favor to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

The reason I said the odds are good Ben has a good game is not because he's had two bad ones, but because history shows he's always more likely to have a good game than not (vs. other qb's).

As for the money: no thanks. My premise is not based on a passer rating or TD-INT stats, but that Ben is not Jinxed or suffering PTSD. I guess I would be willing to bet on a Win, BUT then two other players could fumble at the end of the game again and the loss would not be due to Ben being Jinxed.
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