View Single Post
Old 10-08-2006, 12:26 AM   #14
Livinginthe past
Living Legend
 
Livinginthe past's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Crushing the AFCE...annually
Posts: 7,520
Member Number: 478
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

Quote:
Originally Posted by theropodx View Post
You're putting words in my mouth. I said no such thing.

A coin only has two sides, but Ben has a better than 50% win record. So for any given game, odds are he's going to make more like 70% of the plays.

A better analogy for Ben is a game die. For any given roll, you're more than likely going to get a number higher than a 1. But it's also easy to roll a 1 twice in a row. However, roll again and the odds are in your favor to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

The reason I said the odds are good Ben has a good game is not because he's had two bad ones, but because history shows he's always more likely to have a good game than not (vs. other qb's).

As for the money: no thanks. My premise is not based on a passer rating or TD-INT stats, but that Ben is not Jinxed or suffering PTSD. I guess I would be willing to bet on a Win, BUT then two other players could fumble at the end of the game again and the loss would not be due to Ben being Jinxed.
So you think Ben has a 70-80% chance of having a 'good game' sunday?

But you wont define what a 'good game' is.

No wonder you're pretty confident in your 'brave' pre-game predictions - they dont have any substance.

NM
Livinginthe past is offline   Reply With Quote